EU Referendum – are you in or out?

So 20 voted against the Cooper amendment which basically asks May to do what she said she’d do. That means there are 20 mps who are happy to be given promises that she doesn’t deliver on, and allow her to continue to lie and weasel her way out of any binding commitment. Fools.

That’s good though isn’t it? Demonstrates no deal will have to be voted for if it comes to the crunch and about about a 500 to 20 majority would vote against no deal if it comes to it.

So BRINO/vassal state or remain are now the options?

The earlier vote to categorically rule out no deal failed in order to keep it on the table as a threat, but that threat has now essentially been neutered by this vote.

I think?

Yep, No Deal isn’t the default option any more. The challenge comes when they try to agree the duration of any delay – if that fails to get agreement (and ratification from the EU) then what’s next?

Oh and if a50 is extended, what are the rules of engagement? Is no deal still off the table?

Labour defeated too , so Corbynn and co must go for people vote ?

If the vote result was mandatory then it would’ve been overturned a couple of weeks ago, but it isn’t, so it wasn’t, but we still have to obey it anyway.

So do you think this was an “accidental” outcome of the referendum being advisory? No, me neither. The more I look back the more I see some clever stage management going right back to the Con/Libdem coalition.
LibDems a threat? Get them onboard then assist them to shoot themselves in the foot.
Pesky UKIP taking votes? Offer a referendum. It’s going to be corrupt and dirty but it’s OK it’s advisory so the result will stand.

My prediction….
Don’t leave on 29th march
Extension requested and allowed by EU27 who are keen to show good will.
May goes for as little an extension as possible – 3 months max.
Nothing changes. No majority.
June comes around… No MEPs, EU has done more no deal planning, we crash out when additional extension not approved.

If the vote result was mandatory then it would’ve been overturned a couple of weeks ago, but it isn’t, so it wasn’t, but we still have to obey it anyway.

We aren’t leaving because of the referendum, we are leaving because a motion to leave was passed by the house.

Can someone explain in detail why no deal is now not the default option? What is the default?

Can someone explain in detail why no deal is now not the default option?

No deal will happen by default, because that’s the law as it stands. To prevent no deal, the HoC must pass legislation that enables something else to happen. But if they can’t agree on that something else, no deal is what we’ll get.

Labour defeated too , so Corbynn and co must go for people vote ?

That’s what they’ve said they will do.

onewheelgood

Subscriber
Can someone explain in detail why no deal is now not the default option?

No deal will happen by default, because that’s the law as it stands. To prevent no deal, the HoC must pass legislation that enables something else to happen. But if they can’t agree on that something else, no deal is what we’ll get.

HOC legislation can happen overnight though, it’s just the latest chapter in the worst game of brinkmanship in history.

The UK gov will capitulate, eventually, imo.

But house will now have a vote at the 11th hour on whether it wants to vote a no deal through *IF it comes to that.

*May’s vassal/BRINO deal might get through but I doubt it.

There’s a massive majority against no deal as proven by the Cooper amendment passing. The MPs are too scared to officially take it off the table though, party before people across the house.

When no deal is eventually taken off the table, may will seek an extension.

The extension won’t be granted, it only takes one EU country to veto, and France have already said they will veto without a clear plan.

So the UK will be be right back between a rock and a hard place.

The UK options will then literally be limited to:

BRINO/vassal state/May’s deal

2nd ref (can’t see that getting through the commons)

Or a retraction of article 50.

must go for people vote

“Exploring other options”, first.

To prevent no deal, the HoC must pass legislation that enables something else to happen.

No, the government has the power to change the legislation in any way it sees fit (that weird power was written into it, which annoyed many) and recind A50 notification, without any new legislation. This government says it won’t. It’s led by someone who has previously done things she said she’d never do though.

We aren’t leaving because of the referendum, we are leaving because a motion to leave was passed by the house.

The government decided that we’re leaving… and chose the timescales… parliament just voted to give her that power (a court case forced the PM to ask parliment for that power).

“John McDonnell said the party would table an amendment for a referendum when the “meaningful vote” on Theresa May’s deal returns to Parliament.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47392018

Pick your Labour figurehead, pick your next action. Corbyn said other options to be explored first. Hopefully McD, Starmer and others will bounce him.

Pick your Labour figurehead, pick your answer. Corbyn said other options to be explored first. Hopefully McD and others bounce him.

The article I quoted did not say that, what’s your source?

I was listening. Will listen again…

Here’s the careful PR version…

Breaking: The Tories just voted AGAINST an end to the Brexit deadlock. pic.twitter.com/Y7AHqhiDGJ

— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) February 27, 2019

Oh labour, lol!

I suspect, by morning, the policy will settle clearly on pushing for a referendum. Still looks way too late to me, but would be very glad to be proven wrong.

McD on Peston sounding very clear…

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/02/labour-must-challenge-myth-working-class-supports-brexit

The party must campaign on the values its supporters in the real, progressive, multi-ethnic working class believe in, not on the values of people who will never vote for it.

Ok, so to continue from the other thread – there as to be a reason people want out, & there has to be a big reason for the government (& the rest of parliament seemingly) to go with it.

I don’t believe it’s as nuanced as previously mentioned. I don’t think that people looked upon the host of issues that have emerged throughout the debate, and somehow ranked them to form a coherent decision. Most of the people I talk to admit it’s the number of foreigners that bother them. I wouldn’t suggest they’re racist as others have, but I can see they’re certainly uneasy about the numbers coming in. I’m not particularly bothered by it as I can read the ONS reports myself about migration and how it actually helps our economy, but I was struck by how many foreign voices and languages I heard on a recent trip to Peterborough for my daughters passport. Not bothered by it but it stood out to me.

What I’m getting at, is why has it become such a big divisive “thing”. As mentioned, I don’t recall anyone I know or met demanding to leave the EU, it had more of a feel of an arrogant gesture by Cameron to his more right wing colleagues and voters. Cameron certainly didn’t see this result (like many others).

So why the wholesale bandwagon jumping? Why is parliament going along with it? Who’s getting rich from it?

I guess those who feel left behind, after years of Austerity, Public sector cuts, not enough schools, hospitals, or anything really, need someone to blame.

It’s much easier to blame it on an inrush of foreigners, than to admit you have slashed public services too far and we need to pay more tax.

If we want Scandinavian levels of service we need to pay for them. But that won’t win votes.

My Labour MP has tweeted a couple of times refuting the idea that Labour voters generally voted leave. Apparently not the case even in leave constituencies.
So if you’re directing Labour now, looking to get elected do you a) back brexit and expect floating voters to come with you, or b) back remain, and expect floating voters to come with you?
My money says that if you have remainers looking for somewhere to put their vote, then you’re a lot more likely to get more libdem or even conservative voters move to a party backing remain, than you are to have hard of thinking leavers desert Labour to back ukip (who don’t really exist any more), libdem or conservative.
They’re completely missing an open goal my view, and I very much doubt it’s because they can’t see it.

Mildred, you’re right about the money thing. Who is making the money out of all this? Enough to let the entire car industry collapse and barely blink.Ok, a smart few in the city are obviously getting their kicks out of all the turmoil, but there has to be more to it than just those few.

Anyway, back to the OP asked all those years ago. EU, are you in or out? Has anyone on here actually changed their mind? Not just beaten into submission by it, but would actually change their vote given the chance?

No, in many ways I’m an even stronger remain now than before. I was persuadable to leave, but the arguments and (lack of) plans were very weak.

What I really detest is how it’s given a platform to the Racist Far Right.

…actually change their vote given the chance?

It’s worth noting that some people (that I know) still think we should eventually Leave the EU, but say they would vote Remain in a referendum held this year, to stop the clock, and would want to return to the issue when/if they could get a government who could “do Brexit right”. Likewise, some people still think we’re far better off staying in the EU (or some kind of EEA+CU compromise) but would vote Leave in a referendum held this year, to “protect democracy.” To say it wouldn’t be a simple campaign, based purely on the merits and trade-offs of membership, would be an understatement. It will get very messy very fast… especially if rushed.

Hardcore remain now. I think I’ve become a federalist.

Before the vote I was prepared to moan about certain EU things. Throwing away perfectly good fish etc.
Now I’ve turned into a pro EU gammon.
Between our politicians and loud mouth holiday makers I’m amazed the EU have put up with us for so long.

Was remain, still remain.

I’d be interested to see if any leave voters think this is panning out the way they imagined it would.
If they are truly happy, I do despair.

The blue passports have swung it for me.

I now have UKIP 4 eva tattooed on my knuckles

&

29-3-19
30-6-19

Tattooed on the back of my neck

I’d be interested to see if any leave voters think this is panning out the way they imagined it would.

The few leavers I know well enough to talk to can’t understand who we don’t “just leave”. The closest they get to trying to analyse the shit they voted for is along the lines of “the nasty Europeans are trying to make us suffer”.

Firmly remain here.

Most of my colleagues are rabid leavers and it’s not possible to have any sort of discussion with the majority of them. They are mostly in favour of a hard Brexit and think anyone who voted remain is a pinko lefty Labour voter…

it had more of a feel of an arrogant gesture by Cameron to his more right wing colleagues and voters

I think it was more a plan to neutralise UKIP – and they still couldn’t end up with a working majority.

The few leavers I know well enough to talk to can’t understand who we don’t “just leave”.

I’ve said this before but,

In 2016 I’d have understood this attitude. Almost three years on, anyone saying they don’t understand why we can’t “just leave” is a **** idiot. It’s like being told that you’re on a six month waiting list for an operation whilst surgeons, nurses, anaesthetists etc become available and standing in the doctor’s office with a rusty penknife going “why can’t you just cut it out?”

…actually change their vote given the chance?

I have heard a number of leavers say they would now vote remain (based on it being different than they thought). I have never heard any remain people saying they would now vote leave.

I would guess 500,00 leavers have changed their mind which combined with a few 100,00 leavers now being dead and a few 100,00 young people being able to vote this time it would probably be 52/48 the other way round.

Corbyn said other options to be explored first.

Not seen anything that said other options have to be explored first.

The few leavers I know well enough to talk to can’t understand who we don’t “just leave”. The closest they get to trying to analyse the shit they voted for is along the lines of “the nasty Europeans are trying to make us suffer”.

Yes this seems to be a depressing reality throughout the last 2 years. I can’t do better than Cougar’s analogy above.

What is disgusting (as always) is how the media have played upon this over the last few decades. Bonkers Brussels making all these laws…

The whole sovereignty issue confuses me too. People seemed to be brainwashed into believing our laws are made by unelected EU officials – nobody seems to have any idea of how laws are actually made. I’ve noticed that ECHR enacted by The HR Act is often cited as an example that is stifling security & all sorts… it was written by a Conservative MP.

As far as I can tell, most EU law is focussed around protecting our rights and freedoms. I’ve not yet come across anything that has disrupted my life for the worse. Has anyone, or is it just another load of claptrap that people spin out when trying to justify idiocy?

I’d take a punt it would still be leave.

People are angry at stuff, and even more frustrated than in 2016.

Who knows any longer – I can’t believe anyone still votes for the Tories. Even more shocking. But they do.

I’ve heard a couple of remain voters say they would now vote leave beacuse “democracy”. Gah, but it’s their choice.

I’ve heard a couple of remain voters say they would now vote leave beacuse “democracy”. Gah, but it’s their choice.

That’s just denying leave voters the right to change their mind.