Election Campaign

the strength of the SNP is affecting voting intentions South of the border no doubt about it in my mind.

Oh well in that case it must be true then 😕
Were you not arguing polls were rubbish but now your anecdotes are fact.
You also seem to think just repeating your view , without any evidence, is somehow proof of something.
You also seem to think this response addresses the two points I raised
I cannot see why you think any of these things.

As for austerity we all know they are doing this the only debating point is the speed at which it is being done.

Sorry for all the questions but I don’t quite understand all this talk about how the SNP “must” support Labour in Westminster.

They don’t need to support them, they just need not to vote against them in a confidence vote. Even if they abstained labour could probably count on support from the lib dems and other parties to win a confidence vote. So labour could probably form a minority govt without SNP ‘support’ as long as they are the largest party.

Why is it particularly in the SNP’s benefit to have a stable government in Westminster ? Do you think that a quick second general election would drive support away from the SNP, if so, what’s that based on ?

It’s in the SNPs benefit to have a labour govt as opposed to the tories. Bringing down a labour govt would probably result in a tory govt in a subsequent election so I don’t see why they’d even risk that.

At the moment judging by the mass media, Scots are being told that while we’re wanted in the Union, we’re not allowed to influence govt policy or have anything but tame sheep representation, and it’s becoming obvious to the dumbest voter that UK actually means England in Westminster speak.

I don’t think this is the case, the problem is more that it brings the West Lothian question into stark relief if Labour are going to be relying on SNP votes to get policy through that does not effect Scottish voters. The SNP seem to have changed tack, they will be willing to vote on these matters, which they haven’t in the past. Of course, if Labour did not collapse in Scotland, but the other seat projections were right, similar issues would arise as it appears Labour will not gain a majority of the MPs in the other England, Wales and NI.

EDIT: It is very difficult to work out what might happen as the Fixed Parliament Act fundamentally changes the terms of trade as the Prime Minister is unable to call an election.

Bringing down a labour govt would probably result in a tory govt in a subsequent election so I don’t see why they’d even risk that.

Because only a Tory government would replace Trident and instigate spending cuts every year, despite Labour promising exactly the same?

Is that why it’s too risky ?

I’m not sure why you think it would “probably” result in a Tory government in any subsequent election btw.

Because only a Tory government would replace Trident and instigate spending cuts every year, despite Labour promising exactly the same?

Yes, I agree with you on the lack of difference between labour and the tories on trident, austerity, and many other things. But are you really arguing that the SNP wouldn’t prefer labour over the tories? Given that a huge number of SNP voters are ex-labour voters, and following the anti-tory promises from NS, I don’t think the SNP would ever risk enabling a tory govt through a lack of support for labour.

I’m not sure why you think it would “probably” result in a Tory government in any subsequent election btw.

Aside from the fact that the tories would campaign on basis that labour had their chance and screwed it up. Historical precedent would suggest that incumbent parties are usually defeated if the govt collapses before a full term. The tories also have the money to finance a new campaign where labour doesn’t, so yes I’d say ‘probably’ is a fair assumption.

ninfan – Member

What’s happened to the Scottish Greens? In the independence aftermath it seemed they might become a force to be reckoned with.

They missed having an MEP by a couple of percent and out-polled the Lib Dems, FPTP means they’ll get nowt at Westminster and their voters will mostly transfer to the SNP I reckon. Too far out to really make sensible predictions for 2016 but the last poll I saw had them 4th party, and only narrowly behind the Tories.

Oh and presumably at some point Patrick Harvie’ll get headhunted off to run the national party.

Anyone excited by Ed’s new announcements? The one below seems barmy and an example of political ideas at their very worst. We need less fiddling from all parties and more big thinking and plans.

Ed Miliband says Labour would exempt first-time buyers in England and Wales from paying stamp duty when buying homes below £300,000, for three years.
Locals would also get “first call” on half of new homes in their area while foreign buyers would face more tax.

The election is getting us all worked up. How about we have a cuppa while our masters sort it all out…

😆

JY the people running the campaigns of the Lib Dems and the Tories are not daft, they know the SNP are electorial poison South of the border that’s why they are focusing on them so much. You only have to speak to people here to hear again and again how much they are disliked after the lies of the Referendum campaign and the constant whining after regarding “the vow”

I am pretty certain I have read that trident,or a lack of, is going to be one of NS’s main demands to supporting the Labour Government. I can’t see how this is surmountable.

One face-saving option for everyone would be to just kick it into the long grass – put off renewal decisions for the moment citing “the economic climate” and let it fade away. Never actually have a vote on renewal, just keep saying that more studies are needed.

We’re getting pretty close to unprecendented territory here, though – Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are now all saying that they think SNP MPs shouldn’t somehow be valid MPs. The Tories have even apparently approached the Queen to see if she’ll intervene to keep Cameron in power. There’s a word for what happens when you try to subvert the democratic will of the people – that word is “coup”.

jambalaya – Member
…You only have to speak to people here to hear again and again how much they are disliked after the lies of the Referendum campaign and the constant whining after regarding “the vow”

Just curious, has there been any polls on that?

We keep hearing it’s very much a mixed reception – right wingers (Tories and Blairites) hate us, the old Labour folk think we may put some backbone into Labour policies.

But are you really arguing that the SNP wouldn’t prefer labour over the tories?

No I’m not arguing that at all, as you’ve probably noticed.

I’m arguing that your claim that the SNP must, under all conditions, always support the Labour Party’s ability to form a government is unconvincing.

For the reasons given including the fact it could be electorally detrimental to them.

Oh and presumably at some point Patrick Harvie’ll get headhunted off to run the national party

Shame they haven’t done it already, however much I disagree with him, he comes across a lot better than the shrill Aussie bird.

Saying that, I’m surprised we haven’t seen Ruthie elevated to the front of the Tories national campaign, would have done a lot of good there.

Oh and presumably at some point Patrick Harvie’ll get headhunted off to run the national party

It’s a separate party.

see labour have gone for a bit of the ‘ol housing ladder flim flam with their stamp duty cap up to 300k

not sure that bubble needs inflating any more!

@epic the parties do their own private polling, I have no doubt it will be showing that as that all the “pub talk” I am hearing and it makes perfect sense. SNP have to appreciate some of their language and policy stances during the referendum where very negatively received in the UK. In the same way the Labour party have suffered as being seen to have stood with the Tories the SNP are deeply unpopular with the center/right leaning voters the Lib Dems and Tories need to win over to win seats from Labour.

not sure that bubble needs inflating any more!

Why ever not? What could possibly go wrong?

Just curious, has there been any polls on that?

He does not trust them but his own random haphazard and unevidenced poll of people he knows is proof.

He supports this with the evidence of polls he neither trusts nor has he seen [ though he does not doubt what they say ]

😆
Some days I just love STW

First post by him on this thread
opening line

Do we need another thread ?

I am sceptical of opinion polls, proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum.

http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/election-campaign#post-6837785

Why ever not? What could possibly go wrong?

I am not sure which part of the policy is most flawed, the further inflation of the bubble, or the “local homes for local inbredpeople.

mefty – Member

It’s a separate party.

Er, yes. That’s why they’d have to headhunt him. What’s your point caller?

Well the whole local homes for local people thing does immediately beg the obvious question….

How are you going to enforce that then?

It seems to me like everyone has kind of assumed that nobody is going to get a majority, therefore all manifesto’s become null and void, as they enter coalition negotiations

So you might as well promise everyone a gold-plated unicorn – or increased public spending AND tax cuts – because you’re never going to get the chance to do any of it anyway. Which is handy.

He does not trust them but his own random haphazard and unevidenced poll of people he knows is proof.

That’s life, when you’re 100% accurate!

JY Why don’t you explain why Salmond has been pretty much invisible during this campaign, aside of course from joking that he would be writing the Labour party budget. He’s invisible as the SNP well know the level of his unpopularity South of the border. You might also like to pick an argument with me on a topic you have a chance of being proven correct on, this one is another where you are out on your own.

That’s why they’d have to headhunt him. What’s your point caller?

I’ve never heard of a political party headhunting for a party leader, usually they emerge from the existing organisation, not from another political party.

I took your comment “headhunted off to run the national party” as meaning that, as did Z-11, and mefty, perhaps you meant something different ?

That’s life, when you’re 100% accurate!

Another deliberate misquote. I am right on this one too however. See above, why don’t you and JY come up with a rational explanation of why Salmond the most likely leader of the SNP in Westminster has been totally invisible.

As an aside did you see Varoufakis has been demoted and is not conducting the negotiations, this after being openly called an amateur by the eurogroup finance ministers. He reminds me of Salmond during the election campaign on the whole currency issue.

How are you going to enforce that then?

+1

You only have to be resident for 3 years to be classed as local, but in effect the Labour party would be deliberately reducing people movement within the UK, which is possibly the worst policy I’ve ever heard of outside the cr*p the extremist parties come up with.

The Miliband in Salmond’s poster has been widely recognised as one of the most most effective of the election so far, forcing an immediate reaction from Miliband to rule out a coalition with the SNP

Quote from the Guardian below, I recalled reading that Lib Dem and Tory private polls and focus groups had confirmed what frankly we all know that Salmond is a liability to the SNPs strategy South of the Border.

There is genuine anger within the Labour ranks about the Tories’ divide-and-conquer strategy, which they regard as cynical and incredibly damaging to the wider unionist cause. On one level it is Lynton Crosby-inspired genius: focus groups have revealed that Alex Salmond, though still wildly popular north of the border, is markedly less so south of Berwick-upon-Tweed.

There you go again stating that a party with NO MPS standing south of the border has a strategy for there
They do its to not stand there.

Quoting polls that are private [ have you now changed your mind and think you have seen them ?] whilst also stating how you dont believe polls 😀

You might also like to pick an argument with me on a topic you have a chance of being proven correct on, this one is another where you are out on your own.

You may wish to read the post directly above this as I dont think they are mocking me.

If you wont budge when the evidence is so strong [ re polls] it really is pointless engaging with you as your views are not factually based and they are not consistent as you are now citing polls as your evidence when you say you dont believe them.

If your logic was half as good as your confidence you would be Plato instead you act moire like Pluto.
I withdraw from this game of #pidgeonchess

You only have to speak to people here to hear again and again how much they are disliked after the lies of the Referendum campaign and the constant whining after regarding “the vow”

What; as opposed to the factual and accurate information that came from the Unionists side from day one? And sorry for expecting the changes that were promised to be introduced,although that nice man David Cameron is going to introduce the findings in the next session.He said he was,so even though he is tearing the SNP a new one on a daily basis,I am sure he will put it all behind him and do as he says.

Alex Salmond, though still wildly popular north of the border

He is divisive north of the border also, very Marmite.

You got that straight from Angus Robertson I guess?

As an aside did you see Varoufakis has been demoted and is not conducting the negotiations, this after being openly called an amateur by the eurogroup finance ministers.

I don’t think people like Dijsselbloem are in much position to call Varoufakis an amateur. At least YV doesn’t have to fake his CV.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/dutch-finance-minister-amends-cork-university-degree-error-29195279.html

The Eurogroup are good at calling names and leaking their politically motivated stories to the press, not so good at solving real problems.

jambalaya – Member
JY Why don’t you explain why Salmond has been pretty much invisible during this campaign…

He doesn’t have to do a thing. The red and blue Tories give him all the publicity he needs south of the border, and it keeps his profile high in Scotland.

With Sturgeon fronting the SNP campaign even though she won’t be in Westminster, Salmond gets a free hand to concentrate on running for a seat up here and helping out other candidates. I’m sure Nick Clegg would like that luxury…

not sure that bubble needs inflating any more!

Why ever not? What could possibly go wrong? [/quote]

I’m all for it, I’ve just bought 50 rabbit hutches and will be selling them on for £200k a piece post election….

as much as i think the monsterring of the SNP and Sturgeon by the rightwing press has been predictably unpleasant and a depressing indictment of Tory tactics, i saw this on facebook and it made me chuckle

^nice 😀

jambalaya – Member
JY Why don’t you explain why Salmond has been pretty much invisible during this campaign…

Maybe he’s keeping out of it since the new leader might want to be reinforcing that fact rather than being cast as some sort of puppet by types like yourself?

The fact is it matters not a jot what anyone south of the border thinks, what does matter is how we vote. Popularity doesn’t come into it else you might as well just dissolve the union tomorrow.

One face-saving option for everyone would be to just kick it into the long grass – put off renewal decisions for the moment citing “the economic climate” and let it fade away. Never actually have a vote on renewal, just keep saying that more studies are needed.

they are already spending the money for the renewal and the existing boats/ systems won’t last five more years, and it ultimately will make the cost of procurement higher

We’re getting pretty close to unprecendented territory here, though – Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are now all saying that they think SNP MPs shouldn’t somehow be valid MPs.

where has that been explicitly stated?
or are you just upset at the EVEL fudge for English devolution of powers?

The Tories have even apparently approached the Queen to see if she’ll intervene to keep Cameron in power. There’s a word for what happens when you try to subvert the democratic will of the people – that word is “coup”.

where did you here that? worthy of a JHJ thread 😉 (having said that his threads probably have more truth in them)

if Cameron can’t get a Queens speech through he’ll not be able to govern

big_n_daft – Member

where has that been explicitly stated?

David Cameron:
“You cannot let the people who want to break up our country into the government of our country.”

Theresa May: Abdication Mad Screeching

where did you here that?
[/quote]http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/queen-palace-coup-miliband-snp-cameron-huitson-345 About half way down the page it refers to a story in the Sunday Times

David Cameron:
“You cannot let the people who want to break up our country into the government of our country.”

so please don’t vote for them?

it’s not exactly an order to all the Queen’s armies is it? just yet another campaign speech by a politician

as for

On Sunday, the “coup” stepped up a gear. In a fascinating piece in the Sunday Times, we learn that the Queen – who technically has the power to choose who forms the government – has had to make clear she will not get involved in propping up a government that does not have the support of the majority of MPs. It stresses that we don’t know whether it’s Miliband or Cameron who asked the question, but there is one revealing quote from a Palace source: “Cameron remains Prime Minister but he can’t borrow the Queen for support”.

There’s good reason for believing the real story here is that it is the Conservatives who have approached the Palace about shoring up a potential Tory minority government that cannot command a majority.

the only fact in this bit is as I stated above that Cameron needs to get a Queen’s Speech through or he can’t govern

everything else is conjecture and more likely relates to the work of the Civil Servants planning the various permutations of results…………or you could put on your tin foil hat