Double dip recession

200!

Arrrgghhhhhhhhh 🙁

I think we’d be better off with the party that doesn’t nakedly support the interests of rich, selfish arseholes quite as much.

And instead a party which supports the interests of the minority of people who happen to be public services and in a union?
I have no preference for either.

I am intrigued by the Tory cuts that have caused the current recession – can anyone help me?

Are we talking about the cuts in normal areas of government current expenditure (ie, pensions, health, education, defence, welfare)?

In the first two years of this government how big have these cuts been in money and real terms?

How much are these cuts expected to be this year?

How much of the announced cuts have actually been implemented?

[And for historic context, how much did (that awful) Mrs Thatcher cut government spending (money or real terms) over the course of her leadership?]

Thatcher actually raised public spending, despite all the rhetoric. This lot haven’t reduced it much either. Yet.

But…. there’s a big change of focus on where the money goes. More – a LOT more – will be funeled into the pockets of the likes of a4E, Capita and G4S, as they skim off fees for providing their shite service. Private Healthcare firms are presently licking their lips

Less money will go into actually delivering frontline services. A LOT less.

Theres little change in expenditure. A massive change of emphasis though

THM,
Thought you were the expert on the Tories?
How about you tell us what they’ve done to prevent this recession, and why we should trust them with the economy?

I already understand the “PANIC BUY PIES AND PETROL!” policy , but any others you could enlighten us on would be great.

mcboo – Member
I think he said if there an election tomorrow it would come back. But “not prepared to write the next election manifesto now”, which is fair enough.

It was the line Cameron and Osborne spouting for almost all of their time in opposition.

But…. there’s a big change of focus on where the money goes. More – a LOT more – will be funeled into the pockets of the likes of a4E, Capita and G4S, as they skim off fees for providing their shite service. Private Healthcare firms are presently licking their lips

This is why I will never in my life vote Tory. Blind faith in the private sector and a complete refusal to accept that profit driven companies cannot deliver frontline services that benefit the service users rather than the shareholders. I’ve seen it first hand – worked in contracted public sector service delivery, and it is absolutely rife with the taking of shortcuts, at the expense of both staff and frontline customers, to maximise profit for the shareholders, as well as fudging and outright LYING that goes on to make out they’re meeting targets. Oh and lets not forget the ridiculous targets and financial benchmarks that price charities and nonprofits out of bidding for a lot of these contracts because they can’t afford to funnel money into it upfront.

Ioum – not at all, that is why I am trying to understand. Amazing that Mrs T didn’t cut spending then, I wonder why that was? And the current lot haven’t cut spending either but as binners says, they have shifted the focus. So why all this talk of Tory cuts causing recession? Which bit am I missing?

I may have mis-read it but I thought the first real cuts in government spending were not forecast until 2013. Still very happy to be corrected.

How could the Tories have prevented the recession – they couldn’t have. Ask “them” why you should trust them. Hopefully GO would be able to explain how his current policy mix is going to work. As I said above, even though Gavin Davies thinks it will eventually, I am less confident.

Nothing to do with the unsustainable growth of the public sector.

The focus of all parties on the financial and service sector at the expense of manufacturing.

Old Gordon selling UK gold at the lowest price gold reached in a lifetime. oH and Ed was his deputy at the time. Great CV that.

De regualtion by Maggie of the banking sector.

The “what’s in it for me” or free hand out mentality that permiates through ths society.

How ironic these Liberals actaully have to make hard decisions. Decisions are so easy when you don’t have to make them.

The bottom line is we are in a mess and looking to who to blame is a pointless exercise.

It’s a recession not armageddon. Get over it and make the best of it otherwise you’ll find life has passed you by as a bitter and twisted life which leaves no trace after you’ve gone.

FWIW our grandparents had it much, much harder, they survived and thrived. No NHS, World war, rationing, no soical support system………

On the other hand lets blame a political party as I’m thick and can’t see the wood for the trees. That way it’s easy and I can sound off with a small dick syndrome.

armageddon.

HOUSE!

So why all this talk of Tory cuts causing recession? Which bit am I missing?

[list]
– About 490,000 public sector jobs likely to be lost
– Average 19% four-year cut in departmental budgets
– 28% four-year cut in local government budgets [more if you’re a Labour council in the north of England, not so much if you’re in a Tory heartland]
– £7bn in additional welfare budget cuts
– Police funding cut by 4% a year[/list]

You’re telling me these announcements have no impact on the economy and the all-important ‘confidence’ to purchase/invest/build etc? Ok then, you’re the expert.

So that was lunch.
😀

TJ.
France, Germany. Ha !, sorry, I’ve had lunch.
😀

Your turn.
Tell us about Cuba.
You know, that lefty mecca where even the barbers were owned by the Gov there.
Hhmmm. That all worked out really well didn’t it.

TSY.
I’m amazed you think you’re qualified to post.
Obviously you’re not and you amuse me greatly to see you thinking you can.
😆

I know !.

Lets all work for the Gov.
The Gov can pay all of us…..
From our own taxes…
Errr, oh. Hang on, is there a problem with that ?.

😆 😆 😆

^^^^^^

Oh Noooooooooo !!!.

Grum has the numbers out.

TJ Luuurrrrves numbers.
😉

Smiley tax? That could raise a fortune.
With my more recent experience of public servants (oxymoron?), there’s still plenty of deadwood to be got rid of. Hardly a bastion of efficiency or money well spent.

Great argument Solo – nearly as good as wrecker’s ‘oooh loook he’s got a silly name’.

Hardly a bastion of efficiency or money well spent.

Just like almost every large company I’ve ever dealt with then.

Great argument Solo – nearly as good as wrecker’s ‘oooh loook he’s got a silly name’.

🙄
An argument was it?

Thanks Grum – yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one’s that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

Just like almost every large company I’ve ever dealt with then.

I imagine that’s perfectly true and we could probably include quite a few small ones too. The main difference is that you actually have a choice as to whether you use one inefficient company over another.

Thanks Grum – yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one’s that may do future harm, not current ones.

Even just the announcements themselves have surely had a massive impact on confidence (like I said). Plenty of local and regional government departments are already tightening their belts now in anticipation, people are nervous to take on more staff, there are less contracts going out to private companies from government departments, people are spending less due to pay freezes and fear of upcoming redundancies etc etc

People see that the picture is bad now even before the cuts really bite, and fear the worst, so they don’t buy/invest/build etc etc

Do I really have to spell this out to you?

Thanks Grum – yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one’s that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

is this a serious question? Christ!

Thanks Grum – yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one’s that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

THM: stop being modest. You know some of the factors, if not most.

1. Reduction in credit – banks are not giving out mortgages and loans to anyone with a heart beat. They can’t because they have massive “investments” that aren’t actually worth what they lent against.
2. Most economies going down the drain due to (too much overspending and reliance on cheap credit as per point 1).
3. Increase in productivity in all we do
4. Globalisation
5. Property markets re-levelleing due to point 1, 2
6. Public sector wastage. Oh noes.

What is the solution? There are many, but they will all be painful 🙂

Ok so its the impact of the threat of the cuts, I get it.

So in £s how big is the difference between the Tory cuts and the Labour ones (or as a % of GDP)? Would it be better if Labour were in power and by how much?

“is this a serious question? Christ!”

Don’t bring him into it… we’re having enough problems with that on that other thread over there. 🙂

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-17840447

cuts what cuts?

Ok so its the impact of the threat of the cuts, I get it.

So in £s how big is the difference between the Tory cuts and the Labour ones (or as a % of GDP)? Would it be better if Labour were in power and by how much?

I don’t know because as far as I’m aware Labour haven’t had the balls to actually specifically say what they would have done differently.

.

A-A so which idiot was keeping his eye on the budget, All those teachers were losing their jobs, how come eduction spending went up 9% in the last two years. Where was all that going?

swedishmatt – Member

4. Globalisation

pmsl – would you like to be a little less specific?

anagallis_arvensis – Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-17840447

cuts what cuts?
A spokesman for the Department for Education said: “The main reason for the drop in teacher numbers is because local authorities do not need to directly employ as many teachers, because more schools are becoming academies.

CaptJon – Member
swedishmatt – Member
4. Globalisation

yeah that’s a real lol one that isn’t it. I’ll let you stew on that. Think about it real hard.

The thing I think most of you are missing is that it is the ‘Master of the Universe’ that are actually causing all this pain, not Governments. Tory, Labour whatever persuasion as things currently stand.

Banks, Financial Institutuions caused the pain and have yet to repair their balance sheets and restore their confidence to such a point where they’ll loan sufficient funds for the private sector to deliver what is required.(It’s easier to make paper money from money speculating on and driving up commodity prices)

I’ve always said, there’s no one like the Tories to really stick a recession to us steep and deep and saw this coming from the moment they got in, however they have been a tad silly here and there. They need Tax Receipts, putting vat up aint a way to increase Vat receipts in a recession, the other lot had a better idea dropping it to 15%, they should do that now if they want to kick things int action on the consumer front.

Having said that, none of us in the Private Sector can get the funds we need from our Banks and neither can our customers, whilst we are also being absolutely screwed with charges and scams from them that would make your eyes water if I took to anecdotal evidence of this.

So whoever it was that wrote the system is ****, about sums it up. There’s been a programme running on Mon Nights explaining how it was Grocer Heath that initially caused all this, how and why during the seventies, Thatcher only exacted a bit of revenge on the unions during her bit and Blair and Brown just wanted to be a bit like her, whilst making themselves and their cronies wealthy or at least appear to be in bed with the city.

So, if you want to blame anyone, it is the city and those poor saps are no longer in control of their own destinys, since big bang and the subsequent computerisation of their system with complicated algorythms that have an intelligence and what is worse, a perception all of their own.

The markets are driving Governments, they’ve decided the Euro is **** and so it will eventually be, the collapse of it is going to screw us all so badly I can’t dare to look over the edge of that particular abyss.

Politicians? They are but children with loaded guns, all pointed at us, I seriously don’t see any competence from ether of the two main parties and even if they were, their hands are tied by the City Masters of the Universe, oh and Basle Agreements that they pay lip service to when it suits them. (i.e. loaning money to the likes of us, so we can employ more of those of you that do work for small enterprises, so that together we can generate more money upon which to pay tax to them.)

Sweddishmat do you have a point or have you just learnt to bold stuff.

Teamhurt more.. I believe heads are getting ready. We bave had 2 redundancies at our school and i dont think that due to not keeping an eye on the budget, I think its due to knowing what the future budget will be.

Erm…. I hate to say this, but in pre-general election Nick Clegg stylee… I agree with Derek. 😯

Derek, could you just add in a comment about summary execution or something, so I can resume normal service by vehemently disagreeing with you. Cheers!

anagallis_arvensis – Member
Sweddishmat do you have a point or have you just learnt to bold stuff.

Teamhurt more.. I believe heads are getting ready. We bave had 2 redundancies at our school and i dont think that due to not keeping an eye on the budget, I think its due to knowing what the future budget will be.
If you read the article properly, which you haven’t by the looks of things, you would see that there are not actually fewer teachers as a whole in the UK by 10.000 or whatever the figure was, but rather that there are fewer publically hired teachers, as more teachers are in the private sector in academies. So what you referred to as “cuts” aren’t quite that based on that article. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Derekrides: Are you for real?

“I’ve always said, there’s no one like the Tories to really stick a recession to us steep and deep and saw this coming from the moment they got in, however they have been a tad silly here and there. They need Tax Receipts, putting vat up aint a way to increase Vat receipts in a recession, the other lot had a better idea dropping it to 15%, they should do that now if they want to kick things int action on the consumer front.
“

Do you not acknowledge that the coffers were run bare long before that, and that’s there’s something called a global economic crisis, that I know labour liked to say “that started in America”. Not at all acknowledging that they pretty much spent spent spent their way into massive debt.

binners – Member
Erm…. I hate to say this, but in pre-general election Nick Clegg stylee… I agree with Derek.

Derek, could you just add in a comment about summary execution or something, so I can resume normal service by vehemently disagreeing with you. Cheers!

What like anyone who receives 217 times more than his work force as a chief executive should be sumararily executed as an example to the others, then maybe they’d stop their excessive pay whilst we suffer?

Yep, I think that’s the only thing that might stop them, any volunteers/ Pop a cap in that Diamond blokes ass as a starter?

I wish Labour won the last election. Truly. They would have been stuck with this great unf-cuk and the population couldn’t blame anyone but the incompetents themselves.

swedishmatt – Member
Derekrides: Are you for real?

Yes sadly I am, worked through the 3 day week that Grocer Heath brought upon us, suffered the raging inflation of the seventies (You really should watch that seventies programme it gives a good insight into how this all started) I lost a bunch of money in the crash of 87, watched my sister in law experience negative equity brought about by an idiot Tory Chancellor boiling the porperty market by announcing the ending of double tax allowances or something in 89 was it, I forget. I was exposed to the tune of 700,000 deutchmarks on black wednesday when another Tory Chancellor **** up and we crashed out of the exchange rate mechanism, you couldn’t even get through to a bank that day, they all pulled the phone line plug and let the £ crash, I lost thousands.

OK they did recover eventually and Ken Clarke handed Brown and Blair a pretty sound economy in the mid nineties and they took ten years to **** it up, so logic says it will take ten years to un **** it.

swedishmatt

The amount of debt on it’s own is pretty meaningless (in terms of cost), apart from being a good scare tactic.

UK debt maturity is longer than the countries you alluded to, which means it costs us less to service and will be longer before we need to refinance.

As maturing bonds need to be refinanced, a heavily front-loaded distribution profile brings with it a high risk, as any big jump in interest rates will much more swiftly translate into a higher interest burden for short-term borrowers, than for longer-term borrowers.

and

According to the Debt Management Office, the average maturity of UK sovereign debt is 14 years. In the US, it’s about four years. In France and Germany it’s six or seven. Greek debt has an average maturity of just under 8 years. As I mentioned yesterday, they have about 10% of their debt coming due in the next few months.

That makes an enormous difference to the amount of gilts we need to ask the debt markets to buy in a given year. It also means that even fairly large increases in funding costs will only have a gradual effect on the cost of servicing UK debt. That burden is still lower today, as a share of total spending, than it was for most of the 1980s and 1990s.

For Greece, debt servicing costs now account for just under 12% of GDP. In the UK, it’s costing less than 3% of GDP.