Double dip recession

Solo – Member
“How can you increase output with austerity measures?”
Interesting.
Its the Gov thats tightening its purse strings.
What has that to do with economic output of the UK ?.

Okay pendantos, how can the government stimulate increased output with austerity measures?

I am not an expert but this was so obvious to those who have their eyes open that you did not need to be an expert to forsee this

The way I saw it, it was a balancing act. On the one hand, austerity to reduce spending, on the other borrowing to boost the economy. Both could have worked, both could have failed. Either could have had less effect than external factors.

Seems contradictory that you can be so sure of yourself and yet still admit you are not an expert.

Now, I’d rather have gone for the borrowing option for ideological reasons, but conversely our elected govt would have done the opposite for the same reasons. And I think people knew what they were voting for on the whole. I don’t think they knew the full consequences though, but then I don’t think anyone did.

The thing is that before these things happen, you get people predicting the full range of outcomes. It’s basically pot luck who ends up right after the event.

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

Solo – Member
Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Still waiting for an argument regarding the bond markets.

Just saying ‘bond markets, duh!’ isn’t point btw.

Individuals’ finances and a country’s economy are not the same thing, people keep making this mistake.

How so? The books must balance eventually. If you spend more than you earn then you need to borrow to make up the shortfall (deficit). When you borrow you are pledging future output. How does this work differently for a country? It just works over a longer period which means that you’re making promises on behalf of your children.

Jam today but you can pay for it next week, by which time you’ll have interest to pay so rather than going without jam for two days you’ll have to go without it for a week. Next week you can have jam if you like, but you’ll need to promise to go without for a month. After that you can still have jam so long as you promise your children won’t have any, ever.

the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse. Even your link says it

That’s technically a misreading of the article, TJ.
Yes, the article says it, but it attributes it to a “belief” of “others”.

Anyway, I took from the article that the current fiscal policy might be good for us in the longer term whilst not performing as well as others in the short term. So neither here nor there in terms of proof of either side’s argument.

Faced with moving to the other side of the world for a job, or paying a bit more tax in the country I was born in, I know what choice I’d have preferred

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Taxation isn’t the answer.
So I’m glad labour aren’t running the show at the mo.

Solo – Member

“Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall”

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Take money out two things happen – tax receipts fall and demand falls as people earn less and have less to spend

Gross oversimplification of course but this is the lesson sensible people learned from previous recessions.

Solo

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Maybe – but we are nowhere near it given that taxation is significantly higher in Germany and France both of whom are doing rather better than we are ( remember you pay for healthcare on to of tax there)

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

😆

Edit

😆

Still waiting for an argument regarding the bond markets.

Just saying ‘bond markets, duh!’ isn’t point btw.

Oh dear.
You really don’t know what you’re attempting to talk about.

Blaming the government’s tightening of the purse strings, for insufficient economic growth, completely over looks the private sector.

For a Gov to prop up an economy, and employ loads of people, it can only do two things.
Raise taxes. Borrow.
Both revenues hit my pocket.
Which means I spend less.
Getting the picture ?.

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

😆

That is class.
😉

You really don’t know what you’re attempting to talk about.

Solo – where does your expertise on this topic come from?

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Taxation isn’t the answer.
So I’m glad labour aren’t running the show at the mo.

But if noone is working and everyone is on the dole, where is the money coming from, and where is it going?

Last week, the Victorian government here in Oz laid off 500 health workers because of high unemployment. How, prey tell, does adding 500 more people to the dole queue reduce unemployment? 🙄

I just wonder how long the Tories cn go on blaming Labour for everything. It starts to look less and less convincing the longer time goes on.

Considering that labour had 10 years to ruin the economy, it’s only fair that *whoever* is given the same period to repair it.

So solo – please explain a few things
1) How are we going to get a growing economy again
2) why are Germany and France both performing better despite taxing higher than here and putting money into the economies
3) why did Osboune actually do some quantitative easing ( that he said he was not going to do)

Just because I mentioned that I might bring it up when we were discussing the growth figures.

Here’s TJ’s critisism of THM’s post on another thread last night

Wildly inaccurate speculation would seem to sum it up along with grossly biased analysis and pejorative language showing your biasses

Funny that, eh? People who live in glass houses and all that 😉

“It is clearly not good news, the missing link in the economy has been confidence,” said Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

“These are relatively small falls, so we shouldn’t be too alarmist.

“[But] regardless of the figures, it is the message that comes out to business – to be cautious – exactly when we want them to be a little more aggressive in terms of recruitment and investment.”

We got through the last one, we’ll get through this one.

That’s a relief. There’s me thinking I’d been made redundant and lost my house. Hang on a minute…

Seems to me there’s a lot of ‘I’m alright Jack’s in this country.

The outlook is not looking good under the current lot, but many predicted a sustained period of bumbling along the bottom, regardless of Policy. This, i presume is due in part to previous Labour policy and also the economic disaster in 08/09 when thousands were loosing their jobs overnight. World economic meltdown or not, this happened on Labour’s watch and no caveats were given to no more boom and bust.

Zulu – apart from 2 things
!) I was right
2) I fully acknowledge my biases and accept we all have them – as do you for that matter. Teamhurtmore does not

Thank you Ox, you have obviously read the whole article. TJ, I know you a very excited about this news and the opportunity to personalise an argument yet again (despite on-going requests not to) but you really must stop putting words into other people’s mouths, otherwise you simply discredit the value in your own arguments and end up looking silly.

I have little if any political persuasion (despite your constant assertions) but come at this from an economics perspective. Theory and practice tells us that monetary and fiscal policy work better in combination than in isolation and, from a theoretical perspective, on the relative shapes of the IS and LM curves. Gavin Davies (of left wing persuasion, to the extent that this matters) points out the applied stuff here on the current UK balance between the two and draws comparisons across geographies. He concludes that the current, “policy mix may not have been able to support output growth in the last few years, but may still work in the long term” (and he is hardly a Tory apologist). FWIW, I am less confident and have often criticised GO on here for an over-reliance on monetary policy based on my conclusions of the shape of the LM curve and the broken nature of the banking system. Hence my comments on regulation yesterday….if you press ahead with the (correct) regulation of the banks too quickly you reduce the chances of current monetary policy working. For that reason, I am very happy to criticise GO’s current policy mix.

(edit after reading the last post. Final request to stop personalising things. As they say in tennis, play the ball not your opponent}

Considering that labour had 10 years to ruin the economy, it’s only fair that *whoever* is given the same period to repair it.

The economy was great throughout the vast majority of Labour’s time in office 😉

Considering that labour had 10 years to ruin the economy, it’s only fair that *whoever* is given the same period to repair it.

I’d rather keep out of these but..

🙄

10 years relative economic stability and then a ‘global financial crisis’ to firefight?

I’m sure you weren’t running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting “It’s doomed, the economy is all doomed!”

So who thinks we’ll see any contrition from Dave and Gideon this afternoon? Or any indication whatsoever that they even give a ****?

Zulu – apart from 2 things
!) I was right

Well, of course, because you always are, aren’t you TJ 🙄

TJ, is this really the best use of your time?

Solo – Member
Oh dear.
You really don’t know what you’re attempting to talk about.

Blaming the government’s tightening of the purse strings, for insufficient economic growth, completely over looks the private sector.

For a Gov to prop up an economy, and employ loads of people, it can only do two things.
Raise taxes. Borrow.
Both revenues hit my pocket.
Which means I spend less.
Getting the picture ?

No, please expand. I’m fiscally ignorant, remember?

I wonder what it would actually take for the government to admit they need a Plan B?

I’m sure you weren’t running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting “It’s doomed, the economy is all doomed!”

+1! It all seems very closely linked to the rapid increase in house prices and I remember several threads on STW about house prices, stating they would go up forever because “they’re not building any more land”. I don’t remember anyone complaining about that?

I’m sure you weren’t running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting “It’s doomed, the economy is all doomed!”

I wasn’t loading up on credit cards, maxing my mortgage and getting a car on HP as many many people seemed to be doing. The very type of things that caused the whole mess. I think most of us could see (certainly by 2007) that this couldn’t be sustained.

Lifer: but you are fiscally ignorant if you support more government borrowing. That makes you, in essence, like 80% of the rest of the population.

Perhaps more if you live in the North East. Which is full of them.

So who thinks we’ll see any contrition from Dave and Gideon this afternoon? Or any indication whatsoever that they even give a ****?

I don’t think Dave is going to make PMQ’s, apparently he’s popped out to Sainsburys for a pint of milk

Transparent trolling and not adding anything constructive to the forum. Ho hum. This place is really going downhill.

SPOT ON!!!

swedishmatt – Member
Lifer: but you are fiscally ignorant if you support more government borrowing. That makes you, in essence, like 80% of the rest of the population.

Still not explaining why. Don’t you know?

I have little if any political persuasion (despite your constant assertions) but come at this from an economics perspective.

You espouse a right wing economic position continually. You also make snidey personal attacks ( reread your first post on this thread)- and you then pretend you don’t. That is the intellectual dishonesty.

it really is pointless to debate with you at all

Ah, the hazy summer of 2007. I put my house on the market that June, eventually selling it in November at a realistic price. Even in June it was pretty obvious to me something was wrong and the housing market was seriously stalling but many were still trying to flog their houses at silly prices around my area.

CaptainFlashheart – Member

TJ, is this really the best use of your time?

entertained me for a bit 🙂

Frankly, I wonder if government economic polices (tax / spending / everything) actually have any noticeable long term impact on a country’s overall financial position at all.

TandemJeremy – Member

it really is pointless to debate with you at all

Excellent, then please stop. Everyone will be happier as a result.