Double dip recession

to say that one party is 100% with responsibilty is completely absurd

😀 That made me LOL !

Obviously I realise that you’re taking the piss after claiming that your words have been “twisted”, still made me laugh though 8)

I think this page and this quote from Junkyard says a lot.

I would remind you of germany which is much more Unionised than here so

In Germany the relationship between the Unions and Management is not adversarial as it is here. Union representatives sit on the board so have input before issues come to a head rather than reacting after decisions have been made.

The ‘unions are satan’/’unions are saviours’ discussion is a massive waste of effort.

are you saying that pushing up costs isn’t likely to result in job cuts during a crisis?

In the last year alone executive pay in FTSE 100 companies grew by 49%.
chief execs must be bricking it then

Are you saying that Govt contracts went abroad because they were more expensive?

Are you offering proof that this was down to the unions ?

There is no middle ground with you, is there?

I am not sure your view is the middle ground tbh.

Plenty of people at least in the private sector have taken pay cuts and reduced hours to preserve jobs which has been remarkably successful compared to previous recessions.

True and so has the public sector via frozen wages etc.

Lifer its a fair comment they are not useful comparisons but to portray the unions as some sort of bogeyman who drives away business is also inaccurate – well presented without evidence so far.

Ps

Those in the UK[ strike laws] are among the most restrictive in the world. Most legal systems define a right to strike, in some cases it is enshrined in the constitution. Britain has no such positive right, only a bounded liberty the limits of which have become increasingly narrow.

they must be queuing up to invest in Ireland and Portugal then eh.

ah well had my rest on with the next wheel

Junkyard – Member
THM once more you tells us how the market is reacting* this and not how the ordinary person in the street is reacting to this.

There are two consistent arguments on this thread that I am countering – (1) that the recession has been caused by Tory cuts and (2) that the policy mix being pursued in the UK is signicantly worse that elsewhere. This does not make me a Tory apologist nor does it mean that I agree with their policy mix – I don’t. But that does stop me commenting on factual errors/BS.

The former is now not being repeated but the latter is. So the example of the FX markets is a mere illustration that, just perhaps, the second argument may also be floored. 😉 Even if you do not trust markets to ever get things right/believe that they rarely get them right, you have to be surprised that people would still want to put there money in £s when rates are negative in real terms, when are banks are still screwed and our government is geting things wrong to a much worse extent that all peers. Even this mythical “ordinary” man is capable of finding that weird!!!

We should be trying to help the majority not the rich elitists who value money above all else

True

…you will be telling me the market never gets anything wrong next and has a moral voice and conscious

Extremely unlikey – latest download off amazon is “What money can’t buy – the moral limits of market” by one of my favourtie authors Michael Sandel from Harvard. Brand new book this week – I have only read 2 chapters but can certainly recommend it so far!!

We need to balance the two [ if we have capitalism] and it is not unreasonable to suggest that there may be a Plan b that would be better.

I agree that the policy mix could be balanced better. But there are also plenty of far smarter people than me eg Gavin Davies, Jeremy Warner, Roger Bootle who I have quoted earlier who think it not far off albeit unlikely to bring much joy in the short term. But it is too easy to talk about this mythical Plan B as if there is a blindingly obvious set of policies that no one has ever heard off. There are many factors that explain why the impact of many normal policy options is proving to be relatively impotent, among them the very high levels of leverage that remain throughout many areas of the economy and the fact that our major trading partners in Europe remain (broadly) in states of political and economic chaos.

And still there are apologists here for a political as opposed to economic model that prevents weak European economies from devaluing their currencies and therefore enforcing massive downward pressure on workers’ earnings and/or condemning them to unemployment instead. And then on top of that condemn them further to austerity packages which cannot work. And these are people with a left-of-centre perspective?!? The Tories may be making some errors but at least they are not that stupid!

that last graph makes me proud to be French 🙂

There are two consistent arguments on this thread that I am countering – (1) that the recession has been caused by Tory cuts and (2) that the policy mix being pursued in the UK is signicantly worse that elsewhere. This does not make me a Tory apologist not does it mean that I agree with their policy mix – I don’t. But that does stop me commenting on factual errors/BS.

Tory policy has create the double dip recession – this is not a factual error – this is a simple fact. UK and US and german growth was the same until the first tory budget – when we started performing worse.

Also other countries are doing significantly better because they are are creating growth we are not – why – the tory policies

Sorry THM – you are so wedded to the tory economic policy and you simply refuse to acknowledge this. No matter how you protest this you continually espose a tory economic policy .

I am not sure your view is the middle ground tbh.

You haven’t read the article on Ricardo Semler, have you?
The rest of your reply is either dated or selective.
If execs are paying themselves too much while firing people, that is wrong too. But to say that increasing shopfloor salaries and as a result costs doesn’t affect comptitiveness is equally wrong.
the Torygraph article made reference to 2011 as being the worst year in the UK for striking, your graph only appears to go up to 2006.
I’m sure of the time frame that the second graph is linked to nor the title of the graph.

well presented without evidence so far.

I’ll need a bit of time to think about this… 😉

US reaps the rewards for making austerity wait

But the underlying point is that Washington threw caution to the wind; injected trillions of dollars into the financial system, the car industry and federal welfare programs to maintain confidence and stability. Ultimately, the Obama administration cared less about its AAA credit rating than jobs and living standards, saving austerity for a time when the economy is stronger.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/apr/27/us-economy-austerity-eurozone

TJ – you will forgive me if I prefer the judgement of most professional commentators/economists etc. this week. But let’s say you are right, why the hell isn’t everyone fleeing from the £. I am sure you find that very odd.

Please stop personalising this (I know its hard!) and try to read where I differ from current policy. You even repeated one of my main points – the lack of investment!! Odd that – you agreeing and repeating someone who “continually espose(s) a tory economic policy” (sic) 😉

That graph looks even better/stronger second time round!!

edit for the edit: intriguing that you are fan of Paulson. This forum never fails to throw up surprises!!!

the underlying point is that Washington threw caution to the wind; injected trillions of dollars into the financial system, the car industry and federal welfare programs to maintain confidence and stability. Ultimately, the Obama administration cared less about its AAA credit rating than jobs and living standards, saving austerity for a time when the economy is stronger.

Funny thing is though TJ – have you seen the public sector employment figures in the US?

Isn’t this exactly what you have spent the past two years arguing against TJ?

If public employment had grown the way it did under Bush, the US have 1.3 million more government workers, and an unemployment rate under 7 percent…

Sort of shot your own fox really, haven’t you TJ?

There are two consistent arguments on this thread that I am countering – (1) that the recession has been caused by Tory cuts and (2) that the policy mix being pursued in the UK is signicantly worse that elsewhere.

The former is now not being repeated but the latter is….

OK I’ll repeat it then. Austerity slows down an economy and has now pushed Britain back into recession. HTH.

TJ – you will forgive me if I prefer the judgement of most professional commentators/economists etc.

Who are these economists ?……..the ones who are advising Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland ?

Can anyone point out to me just why spain et al are staying in the euro. Isnt it screwing them beyond belif while germany and france do ok. 25% unemployment in Spain i heard.

THM when you talk rubbish them you will be challenged.

You said

that the policy mix being pursued in the UK is signicantly worse that elsewhere.

Not true – Hence the Guardian article that tells you the US are pursuing a different policy with different results

You say

(1) that the recession has been caused by Tory cuts

Not true – as many economists say and have been quoted and the graph I show clearly shows the failure of tory policy. They may bot have caused the recession but they certainly are prolonging it and deepening it

the US are pursuing a different policy with different results

What about the huge cut in public sector employment in the States then?

Ernie, austerity is indeed a withdrawal, exactly. Good job that these nasty Tories increased all areas of current expenditure in their first two years of office and are forecast to do the same in 2012. Austerity, God (sorry!) forbid is forecast to kick in in 2013. Then we can have that debate.

A broad range of economist from all aspects of the political spectrum including a Laobour advisor. No idea if they advised the pigs but given that one worked for Goldman Sachs perhaps they gave national accounting advice to Greece?!?

TJ I even used highlights to help you. Tory policy may be incorrect, but at least lets talk about what they have done. Cuts start in 2103. They did not cut gov current expenditure in 2010 or 2011, You have even started saying that Osborne has increased spending, so make your mind up.

Still gobsmacked that there isn’t a run on the pound given all you say though. How bizarre is that! Those bloody city boys, nutters the lot of them 😉

THM for every economist you claims says the tories are right there is another who says they are wrong.

Austerity, God (sorry!) forbid is forecast to kick in in 2013. Then we can have that debate.

It’s clearly kicked in now, as the economy slipping back into recession clearly suggests. I guess more than a quarter million public sector workers getting thrown out of work last year might have contributed to it.

If you lot put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would be a better place.

THM for every economist you claims says the tories are right there is another who says they are wrong.

And is anyone surprised?

CFH – spent all day repairing paths in the pentlands.

Cuts start in 2103.

Cuts in jobs have already started – that is part of the austerity plan.

you could solve world hunger tonight…

I must admit I enjoyed “Strikes hit 20 year high” used as evidence that we have a massive ongoing problem with strikes, as opposed to being evidence that for 19 of the last 20 years, we’ve had very few strikes.

I enjoyed “Strikes hit 20 year high” used as evidence that we have a massive ongoing problem with strikes

❓
How about strikes being part of the problem?

CaptainFlashheart – Member
If you lot put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would be a better place.

LOL!

+ 1

If you lot I put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would be a better place buy more pens.

FTFY 😉

don simon – Member

How about strikes being part of the problem?

How about strikes being a symptom?

Regardless- I do appreciate a good statistical abuse, so cheers!

Regardless- I do appreciate a good statistical abuse, so cheers!

It’s almost as funny as not being able to read, innit?

I like a good non-sequitor too, so this thread delivers on multiple levels. What point are you attempting to make?

I’ll let you go back and show me where I said that strike hitting a 20 year high and being part of the problem is the same as…

a massive ongoing problem with strikes,

, shall I?

don simon – Member

I’ll let you go back and show me where I said that strike hitting a 20 year high and being part of the problem is the same as…

a massive ongoing problem with strikes,

, shall I?

No. Instead, why don’t I let you go back and show me where I said that you said that?

DING DING end of round one

😆
And with that…..

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don’t have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don’t have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

Are you trying to incite more arguments constructive discussion there TJ?
It is, afterall, the 3rd or 4th time you’ve trotted that line out… 😆

TandemJeremy – Member

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don’t have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

How can someone votes for the same party I do not understand … it’s like letting the maggots to grow inside you then let them feast on you. Majority of politicians are twisted leeches that will drink your blood dry given the chance …

The logic is that …

1. Labour was in power for some time so it’s time to end them regardless of whether how good they could govern. The longer they govern the more they want to turn people in zombies … yes, they want to dictate what’s good for you in their own perspectives.

2. Tory will do some good by getting people to wean off state support (those who deserve should get them) otherwise there will be more waiting to be fed … “You’ve never had it so good.”

3. None of them can improve on the current economy situation so nothing wrong by choose other party. What is wrong with stirring up the shite to make it smell a bit more since we are already swimming in pool of shite?

🙄

it’s like letting the maggots to grow inside you then let them feast on you. Majority of politicians are twisted leeches that will drink your blood dry given the chance …

The longer they govern the more they want to turn people in zombies

What is wrong with stirring up the shite to make it smell a bit more since we are already swimming in pool of shite?

How beautifully put, and what wonderful and poetic metaphors, have you ever considered writing children’s books ?

TandemJeremy – Member
…spent all day repairing paths in the pentlands

Probably best get an early night then……

TandemJeremy – Member. THM when you talk rubbish them you will be challenged.

I hope that this will continue to be the case and a measure that is applied to all posters in a non-personal way ie challenge the comments not the person. So please feel free to correct my rubbish. In the meantime, lets look at your case for the prosecution:

TandemJeremy – Member

As predicted by everyone bar tory apologists the financial incompetents now running he country have pushed us back into recession. So obvious this was going to happen. shows how incompetent they are….

So what hapened: The ONS produced and early and uncertain estimate that the economy was two-thousandths smaller at the end of March than it had been at the end of December.

From a Labour party adviser:

“None the less, the significance of a double dip is more political than economic. The gap between 0.1 per cent growth and a 0.2 per cent contraction is too small to be of anything more than symbolic importance….”

From Stephanie Flanders at the BBC:

“The phrase “double-dip” recession conjures up images of roller coasters, but if the UK’s recovery (her words!) were a fairground ride I’d be asking for my money back.

….Economic vandalism from a bunch of idiots. The damage they have done in two years is incredible….

…..the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse…

Now vandalism is a pretty strong word, so lets see. Again Flanders, “The downward lurch in the economy in 2008-09 was certainly dramatic. But for the past 18 months, the UK’s national output has been broadly, and disappointingly flat.”

So remind me, the Tories came into power when, and since then the Uk economy has grown/shrunk or been flat. A little clue, Ed Balls uses the word/cliche :”flatlining”. Not quite economic vandalism is it. And the difference beween labour and Tory policy on spending is 0.1% of GDP. Oh, but sorry we have already accepted that Labout/Tories are broadly synonymous haven’t we.

But as Labour supported Davies pointed out. “The differences between Labour and the Coalition on macro-economic policy are in any case more about rhetoric than substance….. In a way, the Government is already doing what Labour demands, to the dismay of those who thought a Tory-led administration”

….However the tory cuts causing recession

Ok, subsequently withdrawn and replaced with Osborne’s spending. Fair enough.

So the reality is. There is no economic vandalism. We have an economy that is as Flanders puts it, “bumping along the bottom.” At the top level we have had de nada, de rien, nothing. But what about the sectors. Check the ONS, its all there – agriculture down 20% (deafening roar on Labour and Tory agric policies), mining down by one third (ditto), construction (-5%) and manufacturing (-6%), all under Labour and the Tories. But where have we heard the noise, yes, government spending. And yet, under both governments, the government has expanded by more than 5% and “health and social care particulalry strongly.” (FT)

This is not to say that the situation is not serious. It obviously is. The economy has gone nowhere since 2008 and will probably continue to do so. So in this context, it becomes even more important not to exagerate, mislead, lie, “talk rubbish” (take your pick) especially with economic data.

The Tories at the moment are guilty (to the extent that any gov really makes a difference) of an economy that is neither up, nor down but flat. As Davies puts it they have made a crucial error, “in believing that the mere act of deficit reduction would rekindle growth. This was never very likely with everyone else – households, banks and major export markets in the eurozone and beyond – all deleveraging at one and the same time. But this doesn’t mean that the strategy is wrong.”

And finally on austerity – for Tim Harford in the FT, “So if this is what happens when government services are still expanding, you might enjoy comtemplating what will happen when austerity really kicks in.”