Donald! Trump!

He’s sitting at 50.7% of the vote, that’s within the tolerance of the polls.

that’s the big # – but what about all the swing states that were on a knife edge, Iowa maybe going blue,  but ended up with every state even the blue ones moving toward Trump across the vote – or do we need to wait a couple days for more granular breakdown

I wonder how many American women are in fear of being grabbed by the genitalia tonight – whether they want it or not…

There are many questions for the Democrats to answer, but given they kicked Biden out last minute, I thought Harris stepped up, did a pretty good job and surprised a lot of people, and ran a decent campaign with an energised and uplifting message.

Agreed.

It’s difficult to see what more they could have done under those circumstances.

Have some foresight not to put forward an 81 year old candidate in the first place, and a succession plan to have a suitable (in the eyes of the electorate) replacement ready to go.

Trump at 70 first time was way older than recent presidents, then Biden blew that out of the water at 78, and now we’ve Trump again at 78.

I agree with your assessment of the mood, but that doesn’t change that they f’d up by the first being too old then the replacement the wrong type.

Let’s be honest. Given Harris’s gender and skin colour, she was never going to get over the line in a country where people are still named Cletus.

I think it is difficult to claim that Kamala Harris was the wrong skin colour for the US electorate when that electorate voted twice for a black US president before Trump’s first tenure.

In Georgia’s Baldwin County 40% of voters are African American, it voted Republican for the first time in 20 years.

There is a lot of suggestion that accusing Trump supporters of being racists, xenophobes, and garbage, backfired on the Democrats. Insulting people isn’t a good way to win them over, it turns out.

Similarly it would appear that the perceived notion that Kamala Harris was entitled to expect women to vote for her re-enforced this Democrat sense of entitlement/taking their core base for granted.

I am sure the reasons that Trump won and Harris didn’t are many and varied, but I doubt the fact that Harris is a woman with slightly dark skin figured very high.

Are there any lessons for UK politicians to learn from this US election? Certainly imo. It is quite plausible that in 5 years time the UK will have a Tory-Reform coalition government headed by a black female prime minister.

It is quite plausible that in 5 years time the UK will have a Tory-Reform coalition government headed by a black female prime minister.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the collective memory of the UK electorate was short enough to vote the Tories back in but I’d be surprised if Badenoch was still leader at that point.

There is a lot of suggestion that accusing Trump supporters of being racists, xenophobes, and garbage, backfired on the Democrats. Insulting people isn’t a good way to win them over, it turns out.

Funny that.

If you call Dems marxist, communist, low IQ, stupid, nasty radicals – the Trumpists all cheer and lap it up.

Almost like there’s a significant percentage of the US population who are that thin skinned that they will condemn themsleves to another 4 years of ridicule by the rest of the world.

That, and they cannot bear the thought of a woman in charge.

It seems the middle ground voted purely based off the amount of money in their pocket and rising immigration whilst at the same time somehow believing Trump that he could fix both. I don’t see how anyone rational can come to that conclusion, not see that there was a global economic slump post-Covid (with the US fairing better than most of the advanced economies) or not blame Republican’s for killing of the border bill. But I guess if your only source of news is right-wing media or misinformation on social media it’s not that hard to understand how it happened.

I don’t actually know where the Democrats go from here, even if they can sort out their messaging and Trump screws up the economy with a trade war with China he’s got so much power now with all the instruments of government effectively under his control it wouldn’t surprise me even if he doesn’t currently have plans to undermine the democratic system in the US he will do something if he starts losing popularity and Republican control of Congress looks to be in jeopardy come the mid-terms. At best there will be a staggering amount of gerrymandering and voter rights erosion, at worst – who knows?

 I thought Harris stepped up, did a pretty good job and surprised a lot of people, and ran a decent campaign with an energised and uplifting message.

I thought after the initial good debate performance she campaigned and came across rather poorly, it was all about Trump and not enough vision for the future. Waltz carried the campaign IMO he was passionate and talked about the dems plans to improve peoples lives it was believable that he actually cared about everyone, he did muddle his words at times but he came across much better than Harris who seemed a bit artificial after that debate performance, she didn’t connect it felt like she was debating a positions she didn’t care about as an academic exercise rather than believing in a cause.

Not that I then understand why Trump then becomes the viable alternative, however bigging up such a poor performance from Harris doesn’t reflect reality.

Is the issue that lots of folk didn’t vote this time, as much as people voted differently?

I’ve come to the conclusion there is really no coherent strategy reliably deployable against Trump or those of a similar ilk. Even if one does work there is no guarantee it will work again in the future. Trump is the ultimate chameleon.

He’s also an abberation and partly backed by what many would correctly deem a cult.

Harris could have done everything right but still lost this, that’s the reality.

To appeal to the diverse groups he increased his vote share of, inherently meant his policies such as they are, are full of contradictions. If another politician tried to sell those same contradictions, they would rightly be torn apart. To Trump voters, they simply ignore the parts they don’t want to hear.

I’ve no idea how you combat that. Either way, even after Trump is just a bad memory, America will never be the reliable ally we once had. Europe and the democracies under threat around the world need to build new alliances.

It’s achievable and necessary.

In Georgia’s Baldwin County 40% of voters are African American, it voted Republican for the first time in 20 years.

Obvious maths is obvious.

If you think that Trump did nothing more than play golf during his first term I am guessing that you don’t think him winning a second term is a disaster?

Spending 25% of his term on the golf course is probably a net benefit to humanity, maybe you have a point. The trouble is he (like any politician) is the figurehead/rallying point for some more calculating and dangerous bastards:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977njnvq2do.amp

https://www.aclu.org/project-2025-explained

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

https://project2025.org/

While the Donald is busy putting the Heritage Foundation will be busy doing all sorts in his name. Interestingly Liz Truss seems to be another of the useful idiots they appear to have in their pocket.

Who might have managed to win from the position Harris was in?

I think Michelle Obama could have. I think it would have taken a celebrity, not a politician. Which is sort of damning.

I’ve come to the conclusion there is really no coherent strategy against Trump or those of a similar ilk. Even if one does work there is no guarantee it will work again in the future. 

It will always be impossible to beat a liar when so many people believe the lies and don’t want you telling them they are lies.

kerley

It will always be impossible to beat a liar when so many people believe the lies and don’t want you telling them they are lies.

Yep, that’s the near impossible problem at the heart of all this.

Europe and the democracies under threat around the world need to build new alliances.

We just walked out on ours.

As a result of stuff like:

It will always be impossible to beat a liar when so many people believe the lies and don’t want you telling them they are lies.

The isolating, looping algorithms of social media have created a new landscape. You can even tell different (and mutually incompatible) lies to different people. It is a problem we have not seen before.

Remember as you look for reasons that roughly half the electorate is of below average intelligence.

Just for fun now, I understand, and I may be wrong, that a sitting president is immune from prosecution and has the effective power to quash special investigations.

But Trump isn’t president until late January, so what if…?

But Trump isn’t president until late January, so what if…?

His team will tie up any litigation in appeals that could go on for years, not that they need to go on that long. A couple of months is enough.

Effectively, he just got given the ultimate get out of jail free card.

There is a lot of suggestion that accusing Trump supporters of being racists, xenophobes, and garbage, backfired on the Democrats. Insulting people isn’t a good way to win them over, it turns out.

Unfortunately very true.

Whilst USA may have deeper issues – here in UK it has been noticeable since Brexit when things had taken a very sinister turn. Previously people would grumble one way or the other for a day or two about who got in – they may rib a person they knew who voted a particular way. But since Brexit it got very nasty and those on the losing side sought to divide people like never before. First it was the thick racist working class … then it was gammons/ old people … and the last I read here it was the Putin supporters.

Insulting people may make those on the losing side feel better in the short term, but it is not a reliable way of winning them over to reconsider their lived experience influencing their vote in the future.

But since Brexit it got very nasty

That’s the problem with politics based on lies and xenophobia (it tends to create division)
And as for supporting putin being an insult, and?

Welcome to the forum 1st time poster ?

Harris could have done everything right but still lost this, that’s the reality.

Somebody else may or may not have won, but the same problems would remain. We need to stop and think deeply after this one.

But since Brexit it got very nasty and those on the losing side sought to divide people like never before.

That’s a little biased imo. Remainers were definitely upset to put it politely but Leavers very much matched any insults given by the “elites”. I never knew I was one of the elites. Which is nice.

The whole referendum was by it’s very nature devisive, it could be nothing else. It was the bastard child dreamt up to (amazingly!) heal Tory party divisions that had been ongoing for decades. The ultimate party before country policy.

Instead it’s gutted the Tory party and let to untold financial damage and restrictions placed upon the younger generations they never even got to vote upon.

Anyway, that’s for another thread and it’s been done to death.

butcher

Somebody else may or may not have won, but the same problems would remain. We need to stop and think deeply after this one.

I completely agree, particularly as this is a problem that many democracies are now facing including us. We could very well have a Tory/reform government in a few years time. We are no where near it of the woods sadly.

‘Merica was never going to elect a black/brown woman as President.

I have worked for a US based company and I have worked with a lot of Americans.

The company didn’t even see how institutionalist racist they were. The only black people employed, were in the lower paid warehouse roles, the well paid operational roles were 100% white.

America is still a deeply racist country.

they will condemn themsleves to another 4 years of ridicule by the rest of the world

They don’t care. This doesn’t even register for them.*  They have been told since birth that the US is the greatest nation on earth so why should they care what other nationalities think? Plus, a significantly large proportion of Americans have never ventured outside the US, some, never outside their own state.

* These were the viewpoints provided by 2 unconnected Americans (so not a representative sample I know) – 1 I know reasonably well, the other a ‘colleague’ I’ve had a few dealings with, but their perspective is the same.

People seem to assume that racism and sexism are about consciously not liking black people or women, but it’s about subconscious bias.  If she’d been assertive and put forward strong arguments people’s emotional response would be to think she was unpleasant and bossy which would be negative and harm polls.  So yeah it’s probably impossible at this point given the state of America.  And you can’t tell people they’re being sexist because they say ‘what do you mean? Some of my best friends are women!’ etc.

It’s quite a hard concept to put across because you have to tell people something that makes them feel bad about themselves and causes them to think – both of which are very difficult, particularly in America at the moment.

I think Michelle Obama could have.

Maybe, but there would have been so much of that vile “Big Mike” misinformation thrown at her, that it might overshadow her campaign. Demanding she releases her birth certificate, medical records etc to prove she was a woman, then claiming they were faked.

Interesting to see Americans on pinkbike panicking about bike components being about to shoot up in price

The world really doesn’t need trade was, especially if Trump withdraws support of American ships protecting trade routes in the gulf

LBC are interviewing blue collar people in  the rust belts etc and most say they voted for Trump due to the hike in prices compared to when he was last in power and also immigration. They don’t factor in the Covid variable and care little that he’s a criminal.

Well my work colleague sent me a message to see how the UK was taking the news, she voted for trump.

I asked her if she would lend him 100$$

“Hell no he’s a criminal” came the reply.

I mean at this point (shrugs shoulders in a galic style)

Meh

There is a lot of suggestion that accusing Trump supporters of being racists, xenophobes, and garbage, backfired on the Democrats. Insulting people isn’t a good way to win them over, it turns out.

I think that’s balls – the Dem campaign didn’t do that, and were I an American citizen, my vote would not have been swayed by one set of voters thinking me a “libtard”. As noted above, what campaign can beat a campaign built on lies?

roughly half the electorate is of below average intelligence.

Oh god, no. Let’s not do that again.

Anyway – 14th amendment anyone?

America is still a deeply racist country.

And misogynistic. A sizeable proportion of people will have refused to vote for her simply because she is a woman.

The USA is still – outside of some slightly more developed east-coast cities – a backwards and largely third-world country.

“Hell no he’s a criminal” came the reply.

But he’s not a black woman.

The democrats should never of put her up as a candidate.

The last election was really close, they should of planned for proper succession.

Harris was not a popular VP, everyone knew that. She was never going to win.

It’s not just a rust belt thing though. My SiL is solid American middle class in Maryland and steadfastly against Trump but she said “inflation has been really bad  my grocery bill went from 200 to 450 for 2 weeks so that is real) it has been easing this past year but it has impacted people significantly and interest rates have killed the housing market so my guess is people voted about $$“. People often take a fairly limited view of matters when they’re being squeezed

The last election was really close, they should of planned for proper succession.

That succession plan would’ve been for 4 years time. A second term is the norm, nobody had a plan for what to do when the sitting President starts malfunctioning on TV.

There were certainly weaknesses all over the place, but not sure who would’ve done better?

Does anyone really believe that Trump is going to do anything to help “ordinary” people in the USA?

He’s got 4 years to tear up as much stuff as possible and give tax cuts to the rich.

It’s a disaster for the US and hopefully it will make Europe sit up and realise that we have to sort our own defense out. Putin’s Russia is a real threat to European security.

As Kilo says above, if people see their cost of living getting better then that’ll be a good thing in their eyes. That the rich are managing to absolutely coin it in is a world away

From the various post mortems I’ve read or listened to in the last day, the common theme seems to be it’s angry, young, predominantly white men, although he definitely gained traction with younger African American and Hispanic males.

This group feels it’s being left behind. They feel diversity and inclusion is limiting their opportunities. They feel marginalised and isolated. They see women becoming more independently successful. Go and read some of the vitriol these men post about women earning huge sums of money from Only Fans and similar. It’s horrific misogyny. Look at their hatred for the likes of Taylor Swift, a strong, successful young woman, and similar female stars.

They feel bombarded by gender politics, despite the actual number of people who fall into these categories being a fraction of a percent, but the media makes them think it’s on every corner of every street of every town, and it threatens them.

So they see what they perceive as strong role models in Trump and Vance. Hugely financially successful, boastful sexual exploits, ones a former marine etc. it resonates with them. A female, minority former prosecutor absolutely does not resonate with them.