Donald! Trump!

But **** me, how depressing to be still 50/50.

It’s actually hard to say if it is or not. In the previous two elections a flaw in poling meant Trump’s support was under estimated. The difficulty is the kind of people who vote for trump are naturally suspicious of authority, conspiracy minded, antisocial  and uncooperative and tend not to be findable by pollsters, or don’t participate if they are, or aren’t necessarily truthful when they do.

Its also interesting that some of the republicans that have backed Harris, such as Liz Cheney are appealing to disaffected GOP voters to vote Harris but not tell anyone

“I would just remind people, if you’re at all concerned, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody,” Cheney said, as she sat side-by-side with Harris. “There will be millions of Republicans who do that on November 5.”

So in undertaking polling companies are having to work out how to skew their results to compensate for this behaviour – but until theres an election result to reference against theres not really a way to know if these changes now mean the polls are more accurate or if they’ve inadvertently overstated Trumps appeal

I saw the groping allegations this morning and thought…….that’ll do the absolutely nothing. Worse – it’ll probably solidify his supporters against the ‘deep state’ hell bent to bring him down.

I think we’re at the point were a typical Trump voter would say “Sure, he raped my Daughter – that’s Donny for ya! She must be a good looking girl. Kind of a compliment really. But he’s going to make me wealthy, protect me from the frauds and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN (AGAIN) so he’s got my vote 110%”

I have been told that Trump groped a minor at one of his donor dinners — and that there’s video.

He’s boasted about groping women and was an acquaintance of Epstein. That ship sailed a long time ago.

I’m really worried about the result of this. It will depend on who doesn’t come out to vote rather than who does.

That ship sailed a long time ago.

For everyone and everything.

We fell for the same thing with Johnson – lay or all your flaws, lies, criminality for everyone to see at the outset and theres no bubble to burst. People are generally distrustful of politicians – by being someone you know everything about because their flaws are so great they end up in courtrooms and headlines Trump is somehow more ‘genuine’ that someone you know nothing about becuase their private life is necessarily private

In the age of celebrity and reality what Trump offers is the same thing that Katie Price offers – unfiltered  insight into every craven, foolish, grubby, stupid little detail of your life. Trump has turned the Whitehouse into the Big Brother house and his rallies are the Diary Room

In the age of celebrity and reality what Trump offers is the same thing that Katie Price offers – unfiltered insight into every craven, foolish, grubby, stupid little detail of your life. Trump has turned the Whitehouse into the Big Brother house and his rallies are the Diary Room

Someone at the Guardian is going to use that…

In the previous two elections a flaw in poling meant Trump’s support was under estimated.

The “Shy Trump Voter” effect? I really don’t think anyone is shy about their support for him anymore, it could be just as likely that the polls are overestimating support for Trump if they still add that in.

This is a bit like the brexit thread. Lots of ‘how can they be so stupid’ sneering and snobbery. It’s really not hard to understand why Americans are probably going to vote for Trump, and it’s not because they’re all mysoginists and racists. When the political system stops working for normal working people, those people will grasp whatever option exists to react against it, and right now in the US that is Donald Trump.

The politicians ‘on the left’ need to be taking a long hard look at themselves and asking why a repellent racist sex pest fraudster is preferable to any of the ‘respectable’ candidates they can put forward.

Trump has no interest in normal working people, and will screw them over just like he did in his first presidency, so to vote for the same thing again is…… what would you call that?

Trump has no interest in normal working people

Of course he doesn’t. But he is currently the only alternative to a system which has utterly screwed working people in favour of the rich, and he’s claiming to be on their side. They know what they will get with the status quo, so they’ll vote for anything that isn’t that even if they probably know that Trump won’t help them either. And why should the voters take it seriously? For decades they have voted for so-called ‘serious’ politicians who have broken every promise and every campaign message that things would be better with them in power. If people are not presented with a serious alternative, they’ll vote for an unserious one instead.

it could be just as likely that the polls are overestimating support for Trump if they still add that in.

Its not just the polls, the bookies have Trump ahead these days too

The “Shy Trump Voter” effect? I really don’t think anyone is shy about their support for him anymore, it could be just as likely that the polls are overestimating support for Trump if they still add that in.

tories are shy. Trump voters might have the hats, flags and bumper stickers but it doesn’t mean they’re cooperative

They know what they will get with the status quo, so they’ll vote for anything that isn’t that even if they probably know that Trump won’t help them either

Absolutely this – it got us Brexit as well. And as the Britain First leader said in the Hope not Hate documentary,  they want things to keep going downhill for the next 10 years to attract the support of all those disaffected voters.

Lessons of history, as ever.

The politicians ‘on the left’ need to be taking a long hard look at themselves and asking why a repellent racist sex pest fraudster is preferable to any of the ‘respectable’ candidates they can put forward

Category error. The left cannot (or in this case Democrats) provide an answer to the “solutions” that the right want to talk about  amongst themselves instead of why their own polices over the last decades have made everybody less well off.  It’s precisely why the right talk about immigration (for instance) in the way that they do. Trump needs immigrants to water his golf courses, wash the dishes and cook the food, he knows this, the Republican party know this, they’re not daft, and they know that the people becoming angry about “foreigners taking our jobs” do not want to do those jobs either. The Democrats cannot provide an alternative to the Republicans telling themselves fantasies to remain relevant and in power.

What the Democrats do here is totally irrelevant (other than to play the pantomime villain) this is the right having a conversation with itself. It’s only listening to itself

Trump has no interest in normal working people

And he doesn’t even need to pretend that he does. Evangelical Christians are among Trump’s biggest supporters, approx 80% supported him when he was previously elected. And yet he doesn’t pretend to share their religious views, they are totally aware how godless Trump is.

He pitches himself as the best candidate for Evangelical Christians, even if they are aware that he is a serial sinner, he urges them to vote for him because he claims that the alternative is worse than him.

Trump is an avowed sinner – so why did American evangelicals vote for him?

https://theconversation.com/trump-is-an-avowed-sinner-so-why-did-american-evangelicals-vote-for-him-68528

He doesn’t pretend to like Jews either, but he expects them to wholeheartedly support him.

Jewish leaders criticized Trump for telling Jewish audience they have ‘no choice’ but to vote for him instead of Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/09/politics/donald-trump-accused-of-anti-semitic-language/index.html

“A lot of you are in the real estate business because I know you very well. You’re brutal killers, not nice people at all. But you have to vote for me, you have no choice,” he said.

The politicians ‘on the left’ need to be taking a long hard look at themselves and asking why a repellent racist sex pest fraudster is preferable to any of the ‘respectable’ candidates they can put forward.

And what is the answer to such a question?

“A lot of you are in the real estate business because I know you very well. You’re brutal killers, not nice people at all. But you have to vote for me, you have no choice,” he said

LOL!  Trump really knows how to wind people up.  Straight to the point.  Vote or else … LOL!

So I see there has been an e.coli outbreak in McDonald’s restaurants in the US… after The Sun God served fries there.

Coincidence?

I don’t think so.

I don’t think so.

I have seen a few other references to that.

As an atheist its rather more convincing proof of god getting annoyed than the normal rather untargeted hurricanes and other natural disasters to punish gays/feminists etc.

^^ Could also be a deep state conspiracy to stop him fueling up on the campaign trail.

Harris, you monster!

The Return of the Trump.  I can see the headline next month but this election will be a close one.

It might be decided by a few thousand votes, but it’s looking eerily like a landslide for Trump in the Electoral Collage.  So many voters seem more interested in punishing the Democrats for inflation problems (world wide) and Gaza (Israel) that they’re actively opening the door to 4 years of destruction from Trump.  They’re quite literally voting on the past not the potential future.  It’s barmy.

And what is the answer to such a question?

Maybe it’s the fact that just like here in the UK, they continually put up candidates who refuse to challenge the established neoliberal narrative that there is no other way to organise society and the economy than what we have today. Every time I hear a centre-left politician speak I’m left with the impression that they’re telling me what isn’t possible and what isn’t realistic or feasible. FFS stop telling people what they can’t have and start offering them something positive. From what I can see all Harris is offering is that she isn’t Donald Trump. Hilary Clinton tried that approach and look what happened.

I think the big issues that face the left is the last time Labour had a proper leftie in charge the press vilified his every move.

Getting the people to actually listen & engage is always tricky when the right sells simple solutions for complicated problems.

My dad & brother inlaw have started to go down the migrant rabbit holes – moaning about various things, as this is sold as the biggest problem facing the UK today – not a problem blown out of all proportion by the previous government.

Trump has no interest in normal working people

And he doesn’t even need to pretend that he does. Evangelical Christians are among Trump’s biggest supporters, approx 80% supported him when he was previously elected. And yet he doesn’t pretend to share their religious views, they are totally aware how godless Trump is.

He has no interest is young Black male voters, and so on and so on

It’s not who he is, or the example he sets, or the solutions policies he offers. What brings all these people together as one voting coalition for Trump is he can say to them that he hates the things they hate. He hates immigrants and he hates women and he hates the justice system and he hates government and taxes and he hates ‘the blacks’ when it suits him and he hates Jews when it suits him and muslims pretty much all the time. Whatever you hate he hates it too and that gives him more traction that the fact that he hates you as well. That only ever gets pointed out to you by people Trump hates and that you hate too.

His rallies are just a crowd cheering a list of grievances and him cheering their boos. (and 40 minutes of dancing)

For decades they have voted for so-called ‘serious’ politicians who have broken every promise and every campaign message that things would be better with them in power. If people are not presented with a serious alternative, they’ll vote for an unserious one instead.

I get your point. But trump was in power only 4 years ago, and to best of my knowledge he didn’t do anything he promised (remember that wall?), and didn’t do anything to improve anything for anyone.

So I’m left with the conclusion that 50% of Americans have either very short memories,  or are thick. I’m leaning towards the latter tbh.

Much to my dismay he’s going to win, probably due to the voting system rather than the popular vote. And you can expect his inauguration speech to be as graceless and decisive as it was last time

Although I’m still holding out for him not making it to election day due to having a massive coronary on the shitter ..although that’s looking more and more like wishful thinking..

From what I can see all Harris is offering

Trump supporters aren’t going to vote for Harris because she starts offering them an alternative to the Status Quo.  They’re voting for Trump because they think he believes, like they do, that climate change isn’t real and that gas will stay at 35 cents a litre forever, that they won’t be made to feel bad about how the US has treated people of colour in the past, that abortion will be illegal, and their particular brand of evangelical Christianity will become the official religion, he won’t take away their guns, and make them accept ‘socialised’ healthcare.

The things they want are fantasy things, that’s the appeal of Trump. The things that you think are a viable, credible alternative to the neo-liberal narrative would go down like a bucket of cold sick with these folks

They want to live in the US of the fifties, not the future.

I get your point. But trump was in power only 4 years ago, and to best of my knowledge he didn’t do anything he promised (remember that wall?), and didn’t do anything to improve anything for anyone.

Trump lowered taxes (massively) increased tariffs (bigly) and was tough on NATO.  All things he promised to do and did.  Biden kept the tax drop and the tariffs and the US economy has benefitted from the tough on NATO stance.

I dislike Trump as much as the next guy, but let’s at least be fair, otherwise we’re no better than the other liars.

I’m going to have to stop opening this thread. It seems there’s now little-to-no prospect of him losing as things stand, and it’s just too ****ing depressing for words.

Someone please PM me when he does have that thromby on the shitter, then I can break out a big bottle of something fizzy. Thanks in advance

Trump lowered taxes (massively) increased tariffs (bigly) and was tough on NATO.  All things he promised to do and did.  Biden kept the tax drop and the tariffs and the US economy has benefitted from the tough on NATO stance.

Fair point. My judgement is clearly clouded by the fact he’s an utter cxxx.

Good points @maccruiskeen 

Trump supporters aren’t going to vote for Harris because she starts offering them an alternative to the Status Quo.

Maybe not but it doesn’t need a load of rednecks to put a democrat in power, it needs a broad coalition of the working and middle classes who are sick of seeing their standard of living and economic security withering away while the rich get ever richer. Basically what they need is a Bernie Sanders type figure who’s a bit younger and a bit more charismatic. It’s always going to be one of the greatest ‘what ifs?’ wondering what might have happened if Hilary Clinton didn’t beat Sanders in the 2016 primaries.

It’s not who he is, or the example he sets, or the solutions policies he offers. What brings all these people together as one voting coalition for Trump is he can say to them that he hates the things they hate. He hates immigrants and he hates women and he hates the justice system and he hates government and taxes and he hates ‘the blacks’ when it suits him and he hates Jews when it suits him and muslims pretty much all the time. Whatever you hate he hates it too and that gives him more traction that the fact that he hates you as well. That only ever gets pointed out to you by people Trump hates and that you hate too.

Probably the most incisive  description I’ve read here or elsewhere.

All things he promised to do and did.

Private Pike voice: don’t mention the wall!

‘drain the swamp!’

The swamp was looking bigger than ever under his rule!

Donald Trump attack on Keir Starmer fails with pre-Budget poll boost for Labour

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-starmer-budget-poll-tracker-b2635438.html

I reckon that the Independent’s political correspondent might have misunderstood the purpose of Donald Trump’s criticism of the “far-left” Labour Party’s involvement in the US presidential elections.

It wasn’t designed to damage Keir Starmer, it was designed to damage Kamala Harris. And it is still perfectly feasible to  believe that it might have had a minimal negative impact on her campaign despite the obvious hypocrisy.

And I am not sure that I would describe a 1% increase in support for Labour as “a shock pre-Budget poll boost”, the margin of error of error is 3% ffs.

 It seems there’s now little-to-no prospect of him losing

Only if you listen to all the internet noise… Which is only going to become amplified up to the maximum over the next week so.

Harris is still leading in the polls. But the lead has shrunk in the last few days…

But being totally objective.. That doesn’t nessesary mean much when you consider the inbuilt structural bias of their electoral college system.

I’m still quietly hopeful my twenty quid bet on Harris will still return me £55.

Remember that MAGA are capable of making a lot more internet noise given Musk is on board.

But noise is noise.. Hype is hype, etc.

it needs a broad coalition of the working and middle classes who are sick of seeing their standard of living and economic security withering away while the rich get ever richer.

John Steinbeck wrote “Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” They don’t want to see the wages for themselves and others lifted, they want to be one of the rich, getting richer. That’s the American dream.

Only if you listen to all the internet noise… Which is only going to become amplified up to the maximum over the next week so.

Harris is still leading in the polls. But the lead has shrunk in the last few days…

I listened to an interesting interview with Denny Carter on polls in the US today – making a comparison between what the polls appear to show and how the campaigns are acting. His analogy was like watching a football game and focusing on the stats at the bottom of the screen rather than the players on the field – it doest matter how how much possession and how many shots on target a team has if in fact they’re losing.  The consistent in the media narrative is that the polls are tightening, it’s 50:50, it’s too close to call. But those stats don’t seem to correlate with the the actions of the two campaigns. Harris’s campaign is a strategy of a party that is confident it can win. Trump’s campaign is a strategy of someone who thinks they’re likely to lose, I terms of where they are campaigning, the messages they are putting out and so on. It looks like their internal polling is telling them something very different to the published opinion polls. Think about the Musk $1m dollar bribes – thats not the actions of a campaign that thinks it’s in a strong position.

A lot of the published polling data is coming from openly republican-leaning organisations and while there has been an issue of polling efforts  under-reporting Trump’s popularity in the past it may well be, as well as honest efforts to better reflect voter intentions theres deliberate efforts to inflate his poll standing. The poll agrigators know a lot of these polls are junk, but are feeding the data in (claiming they are taking account of the bias, but feeding the junk in anyway). Theres a consistent narrative that gets pushed from republican operators in all sorts of elections towards a story of outcomes being likely to be effectively a coin toss even when the reality  is that a particular battle ground is solidly republican or democrat.

Whilst not want to show him as losing It seems useful for republicans not to show him as winning, but to show that knife edge. The Trump campaign has been expertly hoovering money out of its base for a decade now but it takes very little doubt in peoples minds to stop handing over money. Knife edge polling keeps people giving, If these are indeed inflated poll figures then disparity between those and the election day result sets up another long-running ‘stolen / rigged’ grift. It probably the case that things can’t go wrong for Trump in that respect. Losing would still mean the story is all about him.

Maybe it’s the fact that just like here in the UK, they continually put up candidates who refuse to challenge the established neoliberal narrative that there is no other way to organise society and the economy than what we have today. Every time I hear a centre-left politician speak I’m left with the impression that they’re telling me what isn’t possible and what isn’t realistic or feasible. FFS stop telling people what they can’t have and start offering them something positive. From what I can see all Harris is offering is that she isn’t Donald Trump. Hilary Clinton tried that approach and look what happened.

So they’re going to vote for someone who is promising policies that will put them in a worse position?

So I’m left with the conclusion that 50% of Americans have either very short memories,  or are thick. I’m leaning towards the latter tbh.

And not just Americans, here too.

Macruiskeen +1