Donald! Trump!

On Radio4 yesterday they were saying that the election campaigning isn’t about trying to convince people to change their mind about who to view for (views are pretty entrenched and floating voters are very rare in their political system).

The campaigning is to encourage people to get off their bum and vote as many just can’t be bothered. There are millions of people who are disengaged but their votes could be critical. Hence Harris and Trump’s slightly left field activities this week in key areas.

Do they count and declare the mail ins and early votes separately?

That would probably depend on which state it is. Each state is responsible for administering its own elections, they aren’t administered federally.

Thats the odd thing really – and part of the reason that the republican candidates in particular can win with a minority of votes. The presidential election isn’t one election, it’s 50 elections. Each state manages its election in its own way. I was looking at an example of a (I think Iowa) ballot paper from 2016 – voters would have turned up at the voting station to find 10 candidates for president on the ballot paper.  Even when it comes to the electoral collage they again manage that differently. In some states all the ‘electors’ will vote for the candidate that won that state – so a candidate could win a state by one vote and all that state’s electoral college votes will go to the that candidate, in others the state will split their electors proportionally between the candidates so a candidate can lose convincingly and still gain a significant number votes towards the electoral college..

There is a bit of an odd anomaly with early, particularly mail-in voting which is they don’t necessarily count the votes but they know who has voted. Many voters declare their affiliation on their voter registration, so without counting the votes you know how many ‘Registered Republicans’ and ‘Registered Democrats’ have voted and that information is often made public ahead of poling day.

In the last election, I think the postal votes were actually counted last in many states (at least in the swing states that mattered). This was known before the election and was part of the trumpers plans to discredit the result due that creating the apparent late democrat surge as the postal votes were counted.

views are pretty entrenched and floating voters are very rare in their political system

The way floating voters are portrayed has always been something of a myth, it has always been largely disparate groups, that are either encouraged or not to get out and vote, rather than people who will flip between parties. It is unfortunate that in both the US and the UK both major parties are more happy to disenfranchise voters rather then even try to offer progressive changes.

In the last election, I think the postal votes were actually counted last in many states

Also, as I understand it, the ballot has to be postmarked by election day, but it can be received later (which is fair because there are service members all around the world whose mail-in ballots might be delayed through no fault of their own.) So it actually makes sense to count the mail-in ballots last because they will be received last.

California mail-in ballots can be received one week after election day, if they are postmarked on or before election day, for example.
https://www.usvotefoundation.org/california-election-dates-and-deadlines

Trump also says: “There were no guns down there, we didn’t have guns, the others had guns, but we didn’t have guns.”

I thought this was an interesting line. We……..one of Trump’s lines of defence for the Jan 6th riots was it was nothing to do with him. But if it’s now ‘we’……..

I really do hope enough people selfish enough to vote for him can be sufficiently embarrassed to go through with it and he looses. Then someone finally has the balls to put his nuts in a blender via the courts. When he is dead and long gone it’s really important his legacy can’t be that you had behave as he has done and get away with it. For the future of democracy it would be so much better if he died in prison rather than been having pardoned of all charges as an elderly statesman.

I’ll be up late for the big night for sure.

I’ve been there for the:

Referendum

Trump in ’16

Biden in ’20

Our GE

Now USA ’24… Could be a long night. My main concern is Ukraine/ Gaza, though a Trump win will cause so much collateral damage I can’t even begin to get my head around it…

In some states all the ‘electors’ will vote for the candidate that won that state

All but two do this. Even the two exceptions use 1 vote per congressional district winner (one has 2 districts and one has 3) + 2 for the overall winner. So whilst better than the rest still aint great.

Then you have the faithless elector issue.

Only 14 states have a law that if they disregard the vote then their choice is voided, 3 the vote still counts although the elector might be punished (doesnt seem heavy though eg one recent example was a 1000 dollar fine. Given the cost of presidental campaigns thats not even a rounding error), some others have a law but no enforcement and the rest dont even bother.

I recall seeing a news article that there’s some initiative to get states to sign up to a commitment to cast their electoral college votes according to whichever candidate won the national popular vote. The idea is that the plan isn’t enacted until enough states have signed up to it that they have a majority of electoral college votes between them. I don’t recall how close the initiative is to that magic number though.

There is an ongoing effort to get states to agree to award all their electoral college votes to the candidate who wins the national vote. A bunch of states have signed onto it, with the condition that it will come into effect once states with a combined total of 270 electoral votes have signed on. That would have the effect of neutralizing the electoral college and awarding the Presidency to the winner of the national vote. So far, states with a total of 209 EC votes have signed on, which is 77% of the total needed. Unfortunately, those are the easy states to get on board, getting another 61 votes will be much tougher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

I think the propensity for shooting solutions that this election campaign has witnessed will focus the minds of anyone contemplating screwing around with results.

This morning I was reading about election staff being concerned for their personal safety

What an absolute dire state of affairs

Not alot to add here but we did have a guy in a Trump hat come into the shop yesterday. He really stood behind it aswell. Anti woke/imigration ect ect

We’re in the sunny west midlands. Wonder if he knows he cant vote.

Wonder if he knows he cant vote.

Tell him you object to foreigners interfering in politics and watch the cogs turn.

The primary reason the Dems launched the hurricane on Florida was to destroy all the mail in ballots sat in post boxes. Have you lot not been reading the news?

The primary reason the Dems launched the hurricane on Florida was to destroy all the mail in ballots sat in post boxes. Have you lot not been reading the news?

It’s  so obvious when you say it like that!

Republicans: climate change is a hoax! It’s part of a natural cycle, nothing to do humans!

Also Republicans: the democrats can control the weather!

Fossil fuel and Petro chemical companies:

Labour Party Supports US Democrats in Swing States

What a daft idea, I wonder who in the Kamala Harris camp thought that this would be a good idea?

It gives Trump the opportunity to claim foreign interference, and from a former colonial power no less…..”the British are coming”. He can remind his supporters of the Boston Tea Party spirit.

And why would a political party with almost 50 million registered supporters need the help of 100 Brits?

It’s not uncommon for UK staffers to go and work on US campaigns and vice versa.

Obviously it suits some people’s agendas to blow it out of proportion at different times

i don’t think we are talking here about your normal handful of staffers who are exchanged between political organisations so that they can learn from each other’s campaigns. A hundred individuals in key swing States suggested a concerted effort to help affect the results.

I’m lovin the hypocrisy of Nigel Farage who is complaining of foreign interference in the US presidential election btw. As I remember it one of the excuses he originally gave for not standing in the UK general election was that he would be busy helping Donald Trump in his bid to secure a second term.

I’m also loving farage’s hypocrisy as Bannon has sent him a team of advisors

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/17/farage-given-free-team-of-us-pr-advisers-by-former-bannon-aides-firm

Nigel Farage is recieving advice on “perception management” from the team behind Steve Bannon, who is currently serving a prison sentence? Excellent!

Polls have narrowed further

It still seems to be a coin toss, tho 538 now have a slight edge to Trump

As for labour staffers, everything is about getting out the vote, I’m assuming they are helping /advising towards that end.

It would be remarkable if Harris did win, I’m not aware of any government that’s survived a GE post global inflation cost of living squeeze.

Musk now offering $100 a vote (well sign up to his database so he can chase you to vote on the day) shows just how desperate he is to win this

Trump now has the momentum in all of the swing states.  KH really has to up her messaging to sort this.  She needs to very succinctly articulate her vision for America and get it out there.  Almost half the people interviewed by Sky news didn’t actually know anything about Harris’ priorities.

ernielynch
Full Member
Nigel Farage is recieving advice on “perception management” from the team behind Steve Bannon, who is currently serving a prison sentence? Excellent!

Got to love that it appears to have only come out because the company involved was compelled by US law to declare they were assisting a foreign national.

We were in Dubrovnik recently. Stayed in a very fancy hotel that has quite a few Americans in it. They were generally well traveled, well off people in their 60’s or older.
One guy came in to the bar having learned about the earthquake that destroyed the city in the 1600’s. He was very insistent that this proved climate change was part of the eb and flow of nature, the earthquake from 400 years ago obviously means climate change today isn’t man made. This was on the same day that people were being killed by flooding in neighbouring Bosnia, which really annoyed him as he had to rearrange his tour for the next day.

Musk is now giving away $1m a day in Pennsylvania to a randomly chosen registered Republican voter…

Can the man stoop any lower?

Can the man stoop any lower?

If trump wins he will be determined to show us!

Id like Musk to be put on the relevant list as not being welcomed on UK soil personally.

Can the man stoop any lower?

Anytime you think someone’s scraping the bottom of the barrel, just remember, there are other barrels under this barrel.

Early voting numbers are looking surprisingly good for the Republicans
Whether it’s indicative of big numbers for Trump or just noise, Its hard not to be worried about it tbh.

As for labour staffers, everything is about getting out the vote, I’m assuming they are helping /advising towards that end.

Didn’t our GE have record low turnout? And Labour got the worst vote share of any winning party? Obviously they won, but if I needed to enthuse voters to make sure I got big numbers out I’m not sure the current Labour party would be who I’d go to for help!

Didn’t our GE have record low turnout? And Labour got the worst vote share of any winning party? Obviously they won, but if I needed to enthuse voters to make sure I got big numbers out I’m not sure the current Labour party would be who I’d go to for help!

Sorry as I’m genuinely not nitpicking here!

I suppose it depends upon your way of looking at it. In the many swing seats that they needed to win, they largely did. Part of that process was putting people and resources into those seats. So, where the turnout needed to be, it was good, or at least, it was good enough.

So, imo, it’s one of those many grey areas of life where it isn’t a black or white answer.

So, imo, it’s one of those many grey areas of life where it isn’t a black or white answer.

Oh yeah, obviously on a seats basis they won with a crushing majority, but that was because people left the Tories and voted lib dem or reform, rather than because they convinced people to vote Labour.  Unfortunately in America there’s no ‘establishment right wing party’ and ‘fruit loop populist right wing party’ to split the votes that don’t go to the Democrats. Their Tory/Reform merger has already happened with the Tea Party/Maga lot taking over the republicans.

Their Tory/Reform merger has already happened with the Tea Party/Maga lot taking over the republicans.

Yep, very true. The republican party was subject to a hostile takeover. Well, let’s be real, it was welcomed by those that are all too happy to ride the MAGA gravy train. Very depressing but so much worse if Trump wins.

The republican party was subject to a hostile takeover.

At the risk of invoking Godwin more like the German takeover of Austria. Largely welcomed at the time with a few dissenters.

John McCain being a notable and legendary example of what a exemplary politician should be.

This latest gaff might actually damage him. Featured on the latest episode of HIGNFY US, which is worth a watch. Interesting audience reaction when they played the clip.

Apparently Trump is going on Joe Rogan, so another reason to hate him and Spotify

This latest gaff might actually damage him

Unfortunately it didnt stick too hard when he made the comments back in August.

PrinceJohn
Full Member
Apparently Trump is going on Joe Rogan, so another reason to hate him and Spotify

All the turds really are lining up behind the Turd in Chief aren’t they? Scumbags one and all.

I think he’ll win. Especially after reading this…
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/oct/20/as-silicon-valley-eyes-us-election-elon-musk-is-not-the-only-tech-bro-to-worry-about
How many billions and billions has gone into AI? They need to avoid regulation to recoup that money. Trumps too much of a useful idiot.

Marina Hyde on the money, as ever

https://Twitter.com/marinahyde/status/1848736032268714395?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ