To dimiss Trump and many of those who voted for him by saying that they are unfit to hold office or stupid and that democracy has failed, is arguably flawed prejudiced reasoning.
I think supporters of the American democratic system can make a compelling argument that the Trump phenomenon is succesful democracy in action. The approach of the establishment in the Republican and Democratic parties in the last decade or two seems to have been to take their core voting groups for granted and focus on ‘triangulation’ and winning swing voters in the swing states, and saying to those swing voters whatever they thought would get their vote. Neither party had anything major to offer those Americans who have seen living standards stay static/fall, presumably because it was too difficult/impossible to develop an economic strategy that would deliver against the background of low Chinese labour costs, the financial crash, a couple of expensive wars and probably a lot of vested interests.
What destroyed that comfortable two party status quo was the US Primary system that allowed a maverick outsider, who was regarded as an enemy within by many Republicans, to win the nomination.
And for all his faults and flaws, I can’t help wondering if he might just pull it off. If he did, he would go down in history as one of the greatest Presidents. The Republicans in Congress and the Senate could doubtless prevent Trump making many reforms, but the problem for them – and the Democrats – may be that the dam has burst and the electorate will no longer vote for the same old same old, and will turn to whoever promises to make major change, and will keep voting for more radical/maverick candidates until they get what they want.
It may be that Trump will have a window of opportunity to implement economic reforms that otherwise would not happen:
– he has probably more political clout to carry momentum forward than any recent new President, and the establishment Republicans probably know that they have to work with him to succeed, otherwise they face the prospect of an even angrier electorate throwing them all out in the next elections in favour of another protest/voice of change candidate.
– economic factors may be much more in the USA’s favour than in the last decade, e.g. low energy costs thanks to fracking etc. and possibly reducing labour cost differentials compared with Mexico/China
– no expensive wars
– if his proposal goes ahead to allow/force Apple etc. to bring profits held offshore into the USA at a favorable tax rate, that could both give him a large tax windfall for infrastructure projects and also result in a lot of investment of those repatriated profits in USA based businesses
– if he’s as big a narcissist as some people say, nothing would probably motivate him more than the prospect of being lauded as a great President.
Ronald Reagan was similarly demonised by the left, especially outside the USA, but I think was widely considered by most Americans to have been a very good President (and to have been much smarter than many gave him credit for being).
That all said, whatever actually happens and whether or not it proves to be good for the USA and the rest of the world as a whole, there is clearly going to be a lot of change and uncertainty, and it’s always the weak and the poor who suffer most during major upheavals. I dread to think what it must like for those Americans who currently depend upon the Affordable Care Act to get access to decent health care and who now face losing that.
