Budget Oct 24 Thread

Quite. Average household income is around £36k pa. No-one is going to private school on that, so forgive me if I don’t shed any tears for those being asked to pay tax for their luxury goods.

& yet average UK salary is £34K pa.

& yet average UK salary is £34K pa.

Don’t confuse the average with what most people earn.

Pubs have always completed with home drinking, the problem pubs have is a social shift towards home drinking off the back of COVID.

Yes but when supermarkets started selling alcohol the prices dropped massively way below what pubs can do a pint for. Home drinking was big before covid it hasn’t changed much since then as people like to be social and the pub is still popular.

Don’t confuse the average with what most people earn.

That’s a figure I have been trying to find for a couple of days now.

Home drinking was big before covid it hasn’t changed much since then as people like to be social and the pub is still popular.

I’m sure my local rural publican will disagree with you, 10+ years ago it would have been filled with social drinkers. Now it’s the over 70’s and diners only. My daughter’s generation (especially rurally) just don’t go to the pub or clubs. Home drinking post COVID has caused the pubs to take a huge hit, one reason why hospitality gets money off a pint where as retail gets money on in every budget. There’s a huge cultural shift that’s moving away from pubs & clubs (and on to social media and phones).

Yes but when supermarkets started selling alcohol the prices dropped massively way below what pubs can do a pint for. Home drinking was big before covid it hasn’t changed much since then as people like to be social and the pub is still popular.

It was the best part of 40 years ago that supermarkets started selling alcohol.

For me the main reason is change of culture – example; 40 years ago we’d go to the pub at lunch, any day of the week from work.  Sometimes Fridays were 2-3 hours then back for a coffee and natter, drive home.  In fact in the early 80’s when I worked in Hull city centre, once a month we’d go to the lunchtime strip club, well the blokes would.

My daughter’s generation (especially rurally) just don’t go to the pub or clubs.

Kids don’t go to pubs and clubs mainly because they can’t afford 6 quid a pint. My 20 year old daughter worked in my local for 10 quid an hour and she always said drinking isn’t worth it once you realise that you have to work for an hour to drink a pint and a half. When she does go out with her mates they’ll preload on cheap vodka and only have a couple of pints in the pub.

Kids don’t go to pubs and clubs mainly because they can’t afford 6 quid a pint. My 20 year old daughter worked in my local for 10 quid an hour and she always said drinking isn’t worth it once you realise that you have to work for an hour to drink a pint and a half. When she does go out with her mates they’ll preload on cheap vodka and only have a couple of pints in the pub.

I think that trends been going on for a while though. I’ve a degree of sympathy for decent independent pubs / freehouses, but town center bars and chain pubs (or more accurately, their management chains and landlords) have been taking the piss for ages.

I did wonder if it’s like bus fares. When they cut bus fares to £1 round here, the busses were packed and they actually made more money for the first month or so before people got fed up of them being overcrowded and numbers dropped again.  Have pubs hit the point where having to charge £6/pint to cover staff and overheads because there’s so few people in them, has become the reason there’s so few people in them.

Pubs – gone the way of football etc.  Once affordable, now treats only.

That’s a figure I have been trying to find for a couple of days now.

A quick Google suggests the median salary is pretty similar to the average salary around £35k.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416139/full-time-annual-salary-in-the-uk-by-region/#statisticContainer

I’m sure my local rural publican will disagree with you, 10+ years ago it would have been filled with social drinkers.

I’m sure mine would agree with me as I have the conversation many times before covid, which was 10+ years ago.

Kids don’t go to pubs and clubs mainly because they can’t afford 6 quid a pint.

Yup, they preload at home and head out later around 9ish.

It was the best part of 40 years ago that supermarkets started selling alcohol.

Well it was way before that too, I not explaining it well. It’s when the licensing changed so they could sell it once they were open and not at restricted times, remember they would close the alcohol aisle.

 It’s when the licensing changed so they could sell it once they were open and not at restricted times, remember they would close the alcohol aisle.

I always as a child thought that was ridiculous – you’re in the shop at 10am cos it’s open & convenient but you have to wait until 11am to pick up a bottle of wine for later, cos if they sold it to you at 10.30 it was illegal.

From what I see, independent schools have a massive benefit over state schools when it comes to results, especially at A level.

If your aim is to get a child into a Russell Group University then 60% of students from the independent sector attend whilst only 25% do from the State sector.

Loads of articles on this so not going to link but its very well own.

Hmmm. I don’t think it is. You’re probably mixing up correlation with causation. Just because 2.4 times as many kids from private schools get to Russel than state schools  doesn’t means that any specific kid would be  2.4 times as likely if he were sent to a private school

Quite. Average household income is around £36k pa. No-one is going to private school on that, so forgive me if I don’t shed any tears for those being asked to pay tax for their luxury goods.

& yet average UK salary is £34K pa.

There is a significant difference between income and salary.

My 20 year old daughter worked in my local for 10 quid an hour and she always said drinking isn’t worth it once you realise that you have to work for an hour to drink a pint and a half.

That’s nothing new though. When I was 22 I was earning £3.70 an hour (in a pub) and my local was charging about £2.50 a pint.

I’m sure it’s a cultural change more than a money thing. In my case I just spent every penny i could find on going out. Kids are smarter these days

Hmmm. I don’t think it is. You’re probably mixing up correlation with causation. Just because 2.4 times as many kids from private schools get to Russel than state schools  doesn’t means that any specific kid would be  2.4 times as likely if he were sent to a private school

I agree, but that’s not what they said.  As a population 60% of private school kids  end up in Russel Group uni’s, whereas only 25% do from state schools.

Obviously based on those stats the brightest * 25% will get here regardless.  But the implication of the statistic is therefore that the next 35% of the population academically do sufficiently better in private education to reach that threshold.  So for the median kid in either cohort, in a state school you’ve got basically no chance, whereas at private school you’re still pretty much a shoe in.

Yes to work out the actual difference in likelihood you’d need to look at the outcomes for every median kid in every school and plot them on a bell curve of university course quality, and work out how many standard deviations they were away from the threshold of getting into the Russel Group uni. And you could do that for each academic percentile, and then plot those on a graph (my guess is some sort of skewed S-curve for each where the academically gifted always have a near 100% change and the other end near 0%) so it’s not “2.4x more likely” like you said, at the extremes its 1.  In between it must vary based on where the pupil is on the academic spectrum, but one of those S curves is clearly going to be significantly offset form the other, and in actual fact those pupils in the middle are probably getting a much bigger multiplier than 2.4 as those are averages along with those 1x’s.

The other factors at play might be that universities have a bias (maybe, but I don’t think they really care, they have plenty of real world incentives to select the best they can).

Or that parents might decide to send kids to private school or not based on the pupils attainment.  Would they have done well ion a state school so no point paying, would they do badly regardless, etc).

*in a very simplistic model where everyone aspires to be at those universities.

I’m sure it’s a cultural change more than a money thing. In my case I just spent every penny i could find on going out. Kids are smarter these days

indeed. Why pay 7 quid a pint when you can preload before going out, then pick up weapons grade MDMA for next to nothing 😉

Many private schools are selective and they put great effort into selecting those who they think will get the best grades.

Private school kids also tend to come from home environments that are more conducive to academic success, with academic and engaged parents etc.

There’s a big results gap within state school between kids on free school meals and kids not on free school meals for the same reason.

But the implication of the statistic is therefore that the next 35% of the population academically do sufficiently better in private education to reach that threshold.

thats an implication. Another is that
– if parents are vested enough to spend £30k a year on school fees, they’re also going to make sure the kid knuckles down.
– Said kid is also likely to be from a family who are much higher achieving than average (because they can afford the school fees), be that due to intelligence, social skills, connections or something else.
– kids at some private schools who aren’t achieving academically get booted out, something most state schools cant do
– the superstar kid who is going to a private school will definitely be able to afford uni, which isn’t necessarily the case for a superstar kid at a state school, so you will get some dropout there
– private schools often have bursaries/grants for gifted kids from non-rich backgrounds, so that will pull more of the smartest kids out of state and into private

All of those factors will be true whether or not the kid is getting a better education, so even if the system was completely fair, I would expect there to be a higher percentage of privately educated kids going than state.

TINAS has it right (IMO) and those who don’t believe private schools are not disproportionally represented in higher grades and better outcomes are deluding themselves.

The advantage given in the independent sector through greater resources is more than enough to produce better results for almost any child. This doesn’t mean all kids will get 9’s or A* but it does give any child going to a private school an unfair advantage.

I don’t care one jot about somebody richer than me being able to afford a bigger house, a faster car or a more expensive holiday but it rankles that a large amount of money can buy a significantly better education which leads to more state school children losing out on uni places to other kids who all things being equal wouldn’t have met the grades required.

those who don’t believe private schools are not disproportionally represented in higher grades and better outcomes are deluding themselves

Oh that’s entirely true as well, I’m just stating that the sample set of kids going into both school systems is not the same. Maybe only 30% of those kids would get into a posh uni if they went to a state school, maybe it’s 50%, I don’t think we’ll ever know. If there wasn’t an advantage, the school would be a complete waste of cash.

it rankles that a large amount of money can buy a significantly better education

The vast majority uni kids are supported financially by their families. Other families are unable to do this. Surely this is money that you’ve earned paying for your kids to have a significantly better education?

I completely agree on your last point. We pay 600 a month to our daughter to bridge the gap between the maintenance grant and her rent and living expenses. We can just afford it but there are many who can’t. I appreciate that and we’ve talked about it often at home.

Still the point here is that VAT on school fees is not a crying game!

Just a note of caution on the figures above. The household income figure being quoted is the median *disposable* income – which the ONS defines as after tax, NI, council tax etc. So you can’t compare to the median salary which is before taxes. For example for a household with a single bread winner you’d be looking at closer of 45k salary, obvs most will be some mixture of salaries to get to the 34.5k after tax.

Top 20% of households are getting disposable incomes of at least 68k a year which for a single bread winner is a salary of over 100k.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2023

it rankles that a large amount of money can buy a significantly better education which leads to more state school children losing out on uni places to other kids who all things being equal wouldn’t have met the grades required.

Does it rankle particularly more than any of the other sources of unfairness in the world? Like how some parents do more to nurture their kids, or feed them better food, pay for better healthcare, raise them to exercise, keep their houses clean? All of those lead to disadvantaged kids losing out to other kids.

It seems a slippery slope to the demonisation of all those who try to do the best for their kids. Where is the line?

So that’s a massive strawman isn’t it.

Firstly, no it doesn’t rankle more than say Gaza, Ukraine, Foodbanks, Climate Change and any other unrelated world issues. Obviously.

Secondly the system is at fault not the parents who take advantage of it.

Thirdly this is a UK budget thread which has an element about VAT being introduced on a product that in the main can be afforded by those that use it and if not there is a VAT free alternative – not a thread about any of the points you mentioned or some of the ones I did!

Fair point I should have said “more than other sources of inequality in the upbringing of kids living in the UK”. I didn’t mean to imply a comparison with the examples you listed.

And agree it is off topic so I’ll stop!

I hear the farmers are planning something…

bikesandboots
Full Member
I hear the farmers are planning something…

A square dance?

Joking aside, the new powers the Tories brought in to combat JSO could see tractor drivers blocking roads being banged up for a very long time. Terrible, terrible optics though and it’s something I wouldn’t like to see happen at all on many levels.

I hear the farmers are planning something…

I hope they go all French and turn up at the Houses of Parliament with a fleet of muck spreaders

Thry’ll probably just kill some badgers and build a barn without getting any planning permission though, won’t they?

Terrible, terrible optics though and it’s something I wouldn’t like to see happen at all on many levels.

It would be hilarious though seeing all those who had been saying the JSO lot should be locked up even longer suddenly reverse ferreting and believing that blocking roads should be allowed.

It would be hilarious though seeing all those who had been saying the JSO lot should be locked up even longer suddenly reverse ferreting and believing that blocking roads should be allowed.

True. GB News would enter some sort of event horizon and exit as hippies with The Coast Guy doing his weird monologues to camera, extolling the vegan way and how it had regulated his bowel movements.

I always as a child thought that was ridiculous – you’re in the shop at 10am cos it’s open & convenient but you have to wait until 11am to pick up a bottle of wine for later, cos if they sold it to you at 10.30 it was illegal.

We’ve always had restricted hours up here at the end of the day then they added the morning curfew as well. TBH it probably did me good as I would head to bed quicker off my night shifts rather than having a couple of beers. More annoying at the latter end of the day tbh.

I find your stupid rules about Sunday hours more infuriating tbh.

I always as a child thought that was ridiculous – you’re in the shop atcos it’s open & convenient but you have to wait until 11am to pick up a bottle of wine for later, cos if they sold it to you at 10.30 it was illegal.

I’m sure my local rural publican will disagree with you, 10+ years ago it would have been filled with social drinkers. Now it’s the over 70’s and diners only. My daughter’s generation (especially rurally) just don’t go to the pub or clubs.

Just do a head count in almost any pub. It’s mostly grey/white hair and bald heads, just like the politically engaged! They’re the only ones with money to splash about. Younger generations are too busy paying them rent from their minimum wage skivvy jobs, so they can sit in gastro pubs of an evening.

Not shy of a bit of immigrant labour either when it comes to getting their car washed or a take-a-way delivered.

Just a bit of real world  info re the private schoos

our local private school which a friends kids attend have only put their fees up by 8% as a result of the vat measure. They stated that they can now claim vat back on so many expenses that they didn’t need to charge parents the whole 20%

anecdotal but I suspect some element of truth there

My wife is a teacher in the private sector – certainly not in the Eton realm. Their usp Is being as good value as possible to provide for kids with additional needs not adequately met in the state sector.

She was already notified that she’d likely have a pay freeze for several years if Labour voted in to minimise impact of VAT. With NI also being a big impact she’s now been told to expect an actual pay cut, also cuts to her pension and quite probably changes to her T&c’s to boot. This is all to Minimise the increase being passed on to the kids’ families.

So that’s nice

Sorry to hear that. How does her pay compare to a similar role in a state school?

broadly the same. She’s a teacher. Just because she’s in the private sector doesn’t mean she’s driving to work in a Bentley.

The general point being if a person or organisation is squeezed or pressured, they pass it on to whom its easiest for them to do so.

More like the sound bite of cutting teachers’ pay to allow more budget to go to education isn’t a particularly good sound bite. It’s all political spin but the same effect.