This is how you present facts!

The problem for Thornberry, and her approach, is that all trade deals will be compared to the no trade deal situation, rather than the trade deals they replace. All will be sold to the public as “benefits” even when (and let’s be under no illusions, this will be the case for most future trade deals) they are less beneficial to the UK than the EU deals they replace. This will be an easy sell… because everyone from Pearson to Dazh will help to cover the emperor up… rather than point out he is naked.

squirrelking
Free Member

@edukator NI is a sea border, they will still effectively be part of the EU.
Posted 2 hours ago

So if a British retail group stops selling certain products in NI because of costs/complications of the sea border people will have to go south of the border to buy them. An example given is consumer electrics from say Japan which will be available in the Republic through EU distribution systems but not in the north as considered too much hassle/expense by the UK distributor..

But depending on value when they import them back into NI they’ll be liable for duties according to whatever rate is in force (WTO set, maybe)

We’re going to need barriers and customs agents to make that work. Unless, some sort of honesty box is put in place maybe?

I’m sure the grown ups have got it covered.

LOL @ Honesty box.

Yer right . . . .

I reckon it will be ventas or the situation at the French – German border. When I worked in Strasbourg I lived in Kehl and noticed there were 90% + French plates in the supermarket car parks. It was obvious why, the German shops were cheaper and had a better range of products than the French equivlents, even Lidl in Germany compared to Lidl in France a few km away. Whenever we go to Germany we fill the boot with Müsli, plum jam, shampoo and shoes.

Won’t be quite like France/Germany, probably a bit more like France/Switzerland where customs duties apply and are enforced on occasion.

I didn’t chose the France -Switzerland example because the strength of the Swiss Franc is such that savings are enormous for the Swiss who cross en masse to Germany, France, Austria and Italy. I deliberately chose two countries with the same money to show that minor differences in price and range result in high levels of cross border traffic.

As for “enforced on occasion”, you can import up to 300 SF of stuff with limits on meat, butter, alcohol. Fact is most people can do their weekly shop and not have to worry about customs checks:
https://www.suisse-romande.com/faire-ses-courses-en-france.html

I deliberately chose two countries with the same money to show that minor differences in price and range result in high levels of cross border traffic.

You are describing the current situation, not the 2021 one. Cross border shopping trips have been the norm on the island of Ireland for quite some time now. Hard to forecast how this will change, as even the Withdrawal Agreement might be ripped up next year… no one knows for sure what situation NI will be in a month from now, never mind 12 months away.

Fact is most people can do their weekly shop and not have to worry about customs checks:

Not having to pay customs is not the same as avoiding checks for customs.

I think the one thing you can guarantee is that the early part of next year will throw up all manner of nasty surprises that nobody saw coming, as well as all the nasty non-surprises that 48% of us saw coming over 4 years ago

I know what I’m doing, Kelvin, I started on the previous page. It’s about things like vetinary certificates (which are not needed now but will be as of 31/12) and paperwork which will raise the costs and hence prices on goods sold in N.I. sourced in mainland UK.

Edukator
Free Member

There have been some interesting reports on France 24 and Euronews about the consequences for NI trade, deal or no deal. The need for vetinary certificates for cheese for example. The result will be higher prices for products from mainland UK and difficulty competing with products from south of the non-existant border. Four years back all this stuff was dubbed “project fear”, strikes me it’s worse than feared.
Posted 18 hours ago
Reply | Report

We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.

And jeez you can get picky at times and put stuff in my mouth I didn’t say. I said “not have to worry about customs checks” because that’s eactly what I meant not your distorted interpretation.

When I do my shopping in Spain or Germany “I don’t worry about” customs checks because I never go over quotos and I’m certain that even if stopped and checked they won’t find anything over any limits or banned.

You really do have a problem with me don’t you, Kelvin, you reserve a special treatment, that’s discrimination.

That’s a bit like the Chinese state charging for the bullets they use to execute prisoners.

Well, certain train fares ‘east’ were charged to the ‘passengers’ in the early 1940s, so there is more of a precedent here than at first sight…

It’s about things like vetinary certificates

It will be, yes.

This is not the case at the French/German border.

So why the French/German border example? The situation there is very much like the current Irish border situation. People shop, every day, across the border, partly due to the price differentials. The complications from 2021 onwards will be well beyond that.

I was simply supporting mrmo’s valid point. Nothing personal about you.

Read back, Kelvin. I’m getting weary of quoting myself.

We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.

No one knows whether there will be any terms or not, due to our own govenment behaving like a bunch of private school kids.

Let’s face it, that’s what they are, very few of them have ever done a real job or earned an honest wage.

The worst case scenario has to be assumed now, because the UK government refuse to negotiate in good faith, and refuses to be honest in its intentions.

Put the shoe on the other foot, would you go into business with someone who you know is an out ond out liar?

Put the shoe on the other foot, would you go into business with someone who you know is an out ond out liar?

You might, but you would do it on fairly punitive terms and you would lawyer up in advance.

All of which comes at a cost, a cost that could well make you say “**** it, this isn’t worth the hassle”.

But depending on value when they import them back into NI they’ll be liable for duties according to whatever rate is in force (WTO set, maybe)

We’re going to need barriers and customs agents to make that work. Unless, some sort of honesty box is put in place maybe?

I’m sure the grown ups have got it covered.

No, because as I said before NI WILL STILL EFFECTIVELY BE PART OF THE EU. therefore there will be no border, no customs, no tariffs and all those goods from ROI can make their way in with no hindrance.

Read back… …I’m getting weary of quoting myself.

Quite. Read that RTE article on the previous page and you’ll see your talking fairytales.

No one knows whether there will be any terms or not, due to our own govenment behaving like a bunch of private school kids.

Let’s face it, that’s what they are, very few of them have ever done a real job or earned an honest wage.

It’s a telling testimony to the actual standard of education taking place in this countries private schools. They’re paying how much a year to churn out these dimwits?

What I’ve been genuinely amazed at is not just their complete ignorance of how international business actually functions, but just their complete ignorance about pretty much everything.

I think Dominic Raab still holds the title of the dimmest of the dim (which is a hotly contested mantle with this shower) who, as Brexit minister, publicly expressed his surprise on learning that we were so dependent on the Dover/Calais crossing for our imports.

Dominic… mate…. how else did you think they got here?

Whats most noticeable though is that on his belated recognition of this earth-shattering nugget of information he’s continued in his belief that Brexit is a great idea and can’t foresee any potential problems with the whole import/export thing.

Getting this lot to negotiate a trade deal is like dropping your car off to be serviced by someone who couldn’t explain to you how the internal combustion engine actually works

When is the very very last deadline for a deal? i thought we were past the point but it all seems very quiet?

In theory I think it can go right up to NYE.

It’s a telling testimony to the actual standard of education taking place in this countries private schools. They’re paying how much a year to churn out these dimwits?

That’s never been the aim – the idea is always to paint some kind of veneer of intelligent sophistication onto even the most inbred, gurning, moron, so they can get into the higher echelons of international business, or high office in the church or state, where they can sit in a chair while more intelligent people run the show.

Comes unstuck if they’re expected to do more than mouth a few choice Latin phrases, I guess.

Dominic… mate…. how else did you think they got here?

Through Biggin Hill, waved through unchecked with a wink? Like lots of other stuff that their mates bring in, especially the russian ones?

In theory I think it can go right up to NYE.

Doesn’t parliament break for christmas and NY?

Parliament’s broken between New Year’s day and New Year’s Eve

FTFY 😉

It doesn’t have to go through our parliament.

Any significant deal does however have to go through all the EU national parliaments and the deadline for that has long gone. How far they are prepared to bend the rules in the case of some significant deal that goes beyond pure EU competencies but that is only agreed at the last minute, remains to be seen. They would probably be prepared to fudge some details if all the EU leaders gave a nod and a wink.

^they’ll be prepared to fudge it for pragmatic purposes until it can be rubber stamped

In todays latest instalment of ‘everyone who voted for Brexit isn’t just a racist thicko, honest’ we have…

Brexiters were furious when told people really didn't know what they were voting for. Now they are furious because … eh, people didn't know what they were voting for: Furious British expats blast EU's new post-Brexit travel rules https://t.co/1r02AXFasI via @MailOnline

— Gavin Esler (@gavinesler) November 30, 2020

English exceptionalism at its finest.

There are no ‘new’ rules. There’s just ‘the’ rules which are applied to all non-EU citizens, which now includes you, Nigel

We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.

Nothing – nothing happens after 31/12 because thats the end of the withdrawal period. all existing treaties and agreements become null

One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/assets/documents/vulnerabilities-of-supply-chains-post-brexit-final-report.pdf

I think Dominic Raab still holds the title of the dimmest of the dim (which is a hotly contested mantle with this shower)

James Cleverly and Chris Grayling: “Hold our beer”

Nothing – nothing happens after 31/12 because thats the end of the withdrawal period. all existing treaties and agreements become null

With repect to N.I. (which is what we’re talking about here) the protocol outlined in the revised withdrawal agreement lasts for four years after 31/12 before being voted on at the N.I. assembly.

Check, TJ, it’s all in the texts.

One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/assets/documents/vulnerabilities-of-supply-chains-post-brexit-final-report.pdf

i couldnt take it all in but bloody hell thats some depressing reading, but blue passports eh?

Possible Brexit travel restrictions in the new year:

https://www.thelocal.it/20201126/british-people-could-face-covid-19-travel-restriction-in-europe-from-january

Stakeholders highlighted that in the case of a no deal scenario there will be an immediate
impact on butter, spreadable cheese and mozzarella for pizza.

Pizza shortages 😭 I don’t think I can survive without pizza for longer than 48 hours. I have been testing this theory since 1988 🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕

Anyone who reads the LSE report will be stock piling food & essentials for January IMO, whether they believe it’ll be a ‘testing’ period or that we’ll enter the “sunlit uplands”.

I’ve already had the discussion with the OH and my Mum (I do her shopping) and told them to add everything they need to the shopping list and I’ll get it in over the next few weeks. We’re lucky, we can afford it and we’ve both cold larder/utility rooms to utilise.

not directly related, but has anyone tried to pre order christmas food this year? Most places seem to be out of stock already? Sign of things to come?

Probably more to do with a reduced forecast for demand. Our butcher is taking pre-orders but we’re not committing until we know what’s happening.

Surely we’re all going to be eating turkey until June next year? Just turkey, mind. Possibly some occasional cabbage or swede. Every 3 weeks you’ll get some powdered egg.

I am on the Brexit committee for an international company, our products come from Europe. The last shipment we will make to the UK is on the 24th December. We do not know details of a trade deal so have planned to make final changes to SAP at the start of January but we want to make sure year end is ok globally in SAP so we have pushed work back a few days. Deliveries will not start up again until 12th January. Thankfully we do not sell food.

We have to consolidate orders and freight or the admin will be immense, there will be some double shipping hopefully just for six months but the cost will be 3% more on each product.

If we don’t get a trade deal there will be another 4% to add in tariffs.

Things are going to cost more next year. Don’t get me started on dealing with NI and Ireland as we sell there

^^^^^

Price worth paying, apparently.

Every 3 weeks you’ll get some powdered egg.

You might be able to swap some nylon stockings for a tin of Spam.