You might be able to swap some nylon stockings for a tin of Spam.

😀

I’m keeping my weekend pair in case the fan belt goes.

One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/assets/documents/vulnerabilities-of-supply-chains-post-brexit-final-report.pdf

One of my friends has been tasked with wading through the new regulations for their imported materials and stock since July and has come to similar conclusions. The amazing thing is that every time he has contacted the govt helpline to ask what the rules are going to be they’ve told him they don’t know yet so he’s had to plan for WTO rules only. As he works for a reasonably small family company they have stockpiled as much as they can afford to and store but he reckons they’ll run out of stock by mid-February and when it’s usually a 6-8 week lead time on his orders they could well be facing a bare warehouse by March. As they don’t order in huge amounts they fit their orders with suppliers around the larger orders from bigger companies to keep costs down, come January he fully expects to have to pay full price for his stock as everyone will be fighting for whatever they can get. This means either they have to substantially increase their prices or take the financial hit just to survive. The family owners voted for Brexit but are now vehemently against it as they didn’t ever envision a No Deal outcome, it’s not what they were told would happen with the ‘Oven-ready’ deal.

I won’t say which company it is as they are in a specialist field so if word gets out of possible troubles they could have orders dry up.

Take former actor Laurence Fox, London’s most fragile man

genuine LOL @ that line 😀

You’re only supposed to dead-cat BAD NEWS, you absolute braindead amateurs

😀

As sharp as ever from Marina

Back to the talks and it looks like Boris is scuppering any remote chance of a deal by lobbing various hand grenades into negotiations

3 weeks and counting until financial implosion

More good news, shipments will cost more, just because of Brexit.

https://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/DHL-to-apply-‘Brexit’-surcharge-on-UK-EU-shipments/77505.htm#.X8v1mC2l1QJ

Still waiting for the grown ups, I am sure they’ll be along in a minute.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/05/military-planes-to-fly-vaccines-in-to-britain-to-avoid-ports-hit-by-brexit
FFS

The cabinet have apparently all backed Boris ploughing ahead with No Deal. They’re going to bring the Internal Markets Bill back to parliament tomorrow, to break international law and we’ll and truly depth-charge any chance of even the flimsiest of deals with the EU

And that’s after they all saw the cabinet office report on the consequences

Cabinet office doc seen by Guardian on no deal scene:"The likelihood of a systemic economic crisis has increased and will have major impacts on disposable incomes, unemployment, business activity, international trade/commerce, market stability, and security decisions/capability"

— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) December 6, 2020

We are being governed by insane idealogical zealots who are going to knowingly and willingly usher in, through a deliberate choice, a ‘systemic economic crisis’.

And that’s on top of the huge damage already done by a pandemic that we’re still in the middle of

Utter and complete madness

When does civil war break out?

I think the rioting is pencilled in to begin at about midday on January 1st when the Gammons of Kent storm the lorry parks

We are being governed by insane idealogical zealots who are going to knowingly and willingly usher in, through a deliberate choice, a ‘systemic economic crisis’.

Utter and complete madness

Is it? What better way to shape the future of a country, that future being totally libertarian, than to destroy it first? Most of the cabinet and its advisers don’t have the talent for reconstruction, classic Dom being the example of being a destroyer only, its whoever will step into the breach in the near future that will be the even greater danger.

This great experiment on being totally free market in a World that is now closing ranks in terms of ‘regulated’ trade deals means we will fail and pay a high price for it.

The last major attempt at free markets in the uk ended with a couple of million dead through starvation and disease.

Well here we nearly are people.

After 4 years and 19,000 pages of debate and negotiation, we’re but a few days (hours even) away from knowing if we have a deal or no deal.

I’d like to still understand if any leavers are standing positive about what’s happened and about to happen. This place can be an echo chamber on a regular basis.

No matter how shitty things work out economically in the short term, I remain optimistic that the UK can gather it’s entrepreneurs together and have a seismic shift in where and how we do trade.

My pain remains the loss of the working collaboration that was us in the EU.

I also think the whole brexit issue has been used to hide our own politicians and societies failings. I’m concerned that once this delusion has been exposed to more people, we will see a doubling down of lies and the division of Nations. See Trump.

So, short term predictions until June 2021 below…

And long term predictions even further below..

The leavers in my family who were crowing about it have now shut up completely and haven’t mentioned it for months so I think for them its now been realised how stupid it all is

So, short term predictions until June 2021 below…

Shortages of medicines and fresh food will be obvious. Ever increasing flight of financial services and associated jobs into the EU. Huge delays at the border. Trouble in NI

And long term predictions even further below..

London financial services market collapses completely. Inflation goes up massivly. Food shirtage is NI, Turbocharged austerity from the tories, massive cuts to employment and environmental protections. No trade deals sign. Huge disputes under WTO. Massive privitisation of the NHS in England
Johnson and most of his cabal swan off to spend more time with their money

ireland is united, Scotland is independent

UK can gather it’s entrepreneurs together and have a seismic shift in where and how we do trade.

Not going to happen in any way at all. Massive recession coming. Nothing can replace the trade we have with the EU and no trade deals will be signed tghat are at all significant

Reading TJ’s post brings to mind the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse – Famine, Death, War and Conquest.

Schadenfreude ahoy! 🙂

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will light the fuse for a Tory civil war

First signal of the white flag being dusted off or more rattling of the empty cage? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55217535

This whole sorry mess is because of the ongoing civil war in the Tory party. The rest of us are just collateral damage

Let’s not forget the Labour Party’s part in facilitating all this. As the real shitsorm approaches, Lexiteer Owen Jones, who campaigned for leave, is today busy trying to re-write history to absolve him, Magic Grandad, and his Lexiteer mates of their part in this car crash

Hard remainers wouldn't accept a soft Brexit. Now we're all paying the price | Owen Jones https://t.co/HDyDjSBDgb

— Guardian Opinion (@guardianopinion) December 7, 2020

He’s also now blaming remainers. So he can **** right off too!

Just a reminder of what he was saying shortly before the referendum

I hoped Owen Jones would drop the ridiculous "Remainers should have supported Corbyn's soft Brexit, even though leavers hated it" line.

But apparently, he's just like all the other Brexiteers desperate to blame remainers for Brexit. pic.twitter.com/2QdsW9IsKm

— Femi (@Femi_Sorry) December 7, 2020

Seems pretty much everybody who supported this impending catastrophe is now denying it and blaming everyone else instead

Binners – owen jones should have ****ed right off long before now.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-06/the-12-reasonable-worst-case-outcomes-if-brexit-talks-collapse

I asked the government for a comment. This is what a spokesperson said:…

…”It’s vital that businesses and citizens prepare now for the opportunities and changes at the end of the transition period, and intensive planning is underway to support them to get ready.

“This includes launching a comprehensive communications campaign to make sure everyone knows what they need to do to prepare”.

Three weeks to go and you’re going to launch that info campaign? FFS…

Did Frost not thriow another handgrenade in yesterday? I can’t find the news story now

its still no deal. JOhnson and Frost have thrown hand grenades everytime a deal looks close. NO intention of getting a deal

TJ lighten up. That level of doom is damaging to your wellbeing 😉

I actually think there will be a deal, I always have done. There is simply too much at stake for there not to be. Even the nutters in the tory party know that, and as long as they get to say ‘we left’ and more importantly be seen by the voters to have delivered on their promise then they’ll accept whatever compromises need to be delivered to get a deal, especially if those compromises can be hidden from the people.

So I suspect something (maybe not a deal, but some sort of ‘agreement’) will be cobbled together at the last minute which saves everyone’s faces. January will come and there will be some/a lot of disruption, but the vast majority of people in the country, especially those at the bottom, will see very little difference in their everyday lives, and it’ll be like the millenium bug all over again.

TJ does have a point long term however. This won’t be the end of brexit, it’ll move to a new phase where the nutters want to destroy whatever is agreed and move to a US style economy with all the things we supposedly don’t want yet keep voting for. Democracy is a bitch isn’t it!

Channel 4 news reporting on what a total and utter shambles this is

The IT systems haven’t even been tested yet, and hauliers still have no idea what paperwork will be needed to get a truck through customs.

There’s going to be very little to laugh at on January 1st, but watching the Brexit-voting gammons of Kent go postal about now living in an enormous lorry park with hairy-arsed truckers having a dump in their gardens is going to be amusing

TJ lighten up. That level of doom is damaging to your wellbeing 😉

Not at all – its just being realistic and understanding what is happening and why

I am not worrying or fretting – I can just see the game being played. there has never been any intention of getting a deal by Johnson – that why he appointed Frost

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina

Always worth remembering that Argentina was the worlds richest country at the turn of the 20th century and is now… Yes it can happen to the UK, there is nothing special about this country that means it won’t be turned into a basket case by populist politicians.

There’s going to be very little to laugh at on January 1st, but watching the Brexit-voting gammons of Kent go postal about now living in an enormous lorry park with hairy-arsed truckers having a dump in their gardens is going to be amusing

Plenty of job opportunities to provide services to Lorry drivers parked up for a couple of days.

I suppose there is a faint chance of a deal of some sort but it will be such a thin and flimsy thing that it will do nothing to alleviate the issues.

Progress on the issues of EU fleets’ access to British fishing waters, as reported by the Guardian, was upended late on Sunday night when Frost tabled new demands about the ownership of vessels in British seas. Under the proposals, any majority-owned vessels would not be allowed to sail under the UK flag, sources in Brussels said.

From the grauniad

Blimey have they only just raised that? This was an issue way back in the Thatcher era, you’d have thunk they would have flagged the issue of equitable ownership of vessels by now if they were concerned about it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Factortame_Ltd)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Transport

Its a deliberate hand granade to stop any chance of a deal. Every time a deal looks close either Frost of Johnson chucks a hand grenade in. Its not accidental. See finance bill etc etc

that it will do nothing to alleviate the issues.

In my view the issues brexit causes is the icing on the cake that we’ve created over a long time. Again, maybe I’m too optimistic, but we could start to sort some of these issues out with good politicians. Sadly, I don’t we have good politicians and a good proportion of the UK voters can’t see it. I think those of us in NI, Wales and Scotland can see an alternative…

dazh
Full Member

and it’ll be like the millenium bug all over again.

😂

That’ll be the millennium bug where huge amounts of time and money were expended to make sure there weren’t issues, compared to Brexit where no one quite knows just what is happening in a couple of weeks.

compared to Brexit where no one quite knows just what is happening in a couple of weeks.

And for a long time everyone thought the same about the millenium bug. I’m not saying they’ve put loads of work in like they did pre-2000, quite the opposite in fact, but I’m pretty confident that most people come January will look around, shrug their shoulders, and wonder what all the fuss was about.

The trouble with brexit, if you take away the fluffy cultural stuff about free movement, no borders etc is that it’s a dispute about trade policy and standardisation. I don’t know about you, but even after 4 years of wall to wall coverage, I know very few people who are interested in or bothered about tariffs, EU safety standards, working time directives or any of the other stuff that the EU excels at. The problem is not that it’s not important, but that people don’t give a shit.

Is all this not just Boris being able to make himself the one that saved the brexit deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/brexit-boris-johnson-brussels-face-to-face-meeting-ursula-von-der-leyen

Off he goes, our shining knight going to confront the foreign hordes on enemy territory. He’ll come back claiming victory and everyone will either breathe a sigh of relief or will be celebrating once again getting one over the krauts and frogs. The more I see of this the more I think it’s stage managed to benefit one person: Boris Johnson.

Bill Clinton said ‘…it’s the economy, stupid’.
A lot of people who, so far, have expressed either disinterest in or support for brexit will
be forced to live with the truth in those few words.
Price increases resulting from tariffs and a weakening £ will affect everyone; when those increases start to hit there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth – we didn’t expect this, why has this happened and so on.
daz, people can ignore many things but faced with unavoidable price rises which have a direct and personal impact cannot be ignored or wished away.
The job market is another area where direct and personal impacts will force a realisation of the utter madness of brexit.
If/when the holiday and travel market recovers how many people understand how their european hols will be affected?

I agree with Frank.
Very sadly I have had to take the view that I can watch from the sides to a point as my job won’t be affected by this stuff, and financially we can ride it out.
i got incredibly angry about all of this and the effect on the poor buggers who are going to get screwed, but then realised it wasn’t good for me so while I have sympathy for what will happen ultimately people will reap what they sow.

Frank the pound has already weakened massively since 2016 and prices have risen considerably. Do you see anyone protesting?

Dazh – I think the adverse and unexpected effects are going to be so noticeable that people will see it. Stuff like having to queue more to get thru airports as we can no longer use the electronic scanners for passports and have to go thru the non eu channels. Already we have heard screams from the ex pats about how they cannot afford health insurance. Food price increases and shortages, job losses and inability to get mail order so easily from the EU countries will all have an effect.