Brexit 2020+

of no concern for people (the majority) who don’t want to emigrate anyway

The proposals were not about migration. They were about short term visas for education and work, with rights for those students and workers. We can wall in our kids if we want, and try and stop them from having to mix with people born elsewhere, but they won’t thank us, they going to find ways around it… while they grumble about the hassles and limitations we placed on them to make ourselves feel better.

Ah, I used the wrong word. The point still stands; loss of opportunity to leave the country for a few years, has low to zero value if you never wanted to anyway.

I see you elaborated again while I was typing. I agree with you about the strategic perspective. I’m just arguing the point of the self interested individual.

Young people want to mix with other young people from other countries… it is only older people who seek to prevent that on their behalf. And we won’t be thanked for that… they overwhelming want us to stop putting up walls that they never asked for, and do not support.

I believe your perspective is accurate on that in a general sense. I think anyone having that perspective would however have doubts when they lose out on an oversubscribed opportunity though, e.g. places on a first preference uni course at a top uni, or a graduate programme.

As a demographic though, didn’t younger and well educated people tend to vote remain in the EU?

So they were either voting against their best interests, which is of course possible, or they viewed EU access as a net gain in their future career/ lives?

They did. I am one and I did.

I felt it was indeed in my best interest as a whole package. If it was just about free movement without the trading freedom, it would have been a harder decision.

They go hand-in-hand.

Sorry, but the argument that it protects young people from competition for jobs is nonsense.

When I was 28 I quit my skilled job in the UK and moved abroad to somewhere with better opportunities (for me, not necessarily a better opportunity for everyone) to a country with living conditions that better suited me at the time.

I left my skilled job which meant they had to hire someone to replace me.  And that someone would most likely have been more productive than me because they were happier and better suited to the conditions.

Had there been no freedom of movement I would have been stuck in a situation that was making me miserable, ill, and generally highly toxic to whatever environment I was in, both at work and out in the wider world.

Freedom of movement allows people a better chance at finding conditions where they can thrive.  Taking that away forces people to stay in places where they do the opposite.

I went abroad to work for a company that was trying to grow business with a big UK client and they wanted to hire a native to help with that. Without me they may not have won the business and that foreign company may have remained smaller.

You’ve got it arse about face bikeandboots. The smart and ambitious people were those that left and those that arrived picked fruit, served food and worked for low pay in the NHS. Competition for well-qualified, competetive jobs was reduced. Sure I’m simplifying but so were you. The difference is my simplification is closer to reality.

Very often those that left made money, gained experience, married and returned thus enriching British society. I know a few and there are some on this forum. Some of those I know working in France in 2016 can’t return because their partners are foreign as far as the UK is concerned. All of the Brits now have French nationality but their spouses would find it impossible to get British nationality before the couples went bankrupt if they went to the UK.

The UK has permanently lost talent.

To the talented Brits who will never return you can add the Brexit brain drain of both funds and talent. Less inward investment and less funding means fewer top jobs; more competition for what remains and that will get worse as GDP differentials reduce the UK’s standing.

I really can’t see any winners beyond some people rich enough to ride above Brexit.

Most of the 18-30 age group didn’t even get a vote at all!

As for the argument about foreign students taking places away from British ones, that could only be made by someone who was either thoroughly ignorant of the situation, or being deliberately dishonest about it. Overseas student fees subsidise the places of British ones, and universities can expand capacity more or less indefinitely. Education is one of the few success stories of British exporting in recent years, so of course crippling that is very much on-brand for head-banging Brexit morons.

One thing you’re all violently agreeing on is that Leave was not targeted at people who were:

Outward-looking.

Young.

With intelligence, qualifications, motivation and prospects.

Optimistic about their futures.

All things that used to be seen as desirable – especially in a gifted western democracy that can still offer a standard of living way out of kilter with its true productivity.

My BiL is one of those to whom Edukator refers. PhD (at the UK taxpayers’ expense, natch) working in a technical area in the Netherlands, wife and child who cannot live in the UK. He’d have to come over here, get a well-paid job (that itself shouldn’t be a problem), then wait 6 months or so, start applying for a spousal visa with an indefinite additional wait and thousands of pounds of fees to front up. All for the right to live here for a few years with his family, no guarantee of anything longer-term.

He’s British, and he can’t reasonably come and stay here with his family.

Emigrating to the notoriously insular Japan was *much* easier and cheaper when I did it 20-odd years ago (and of course that was with no nationality connection).

Universities cannot expand their capacity when the maintenance grant is worth 60% of what it was in real terms when it was last reviewed.

And governments making foreign students (especially postgrads) feel unwelcome is starting to have an effect too.

Ah, I used the wrong word. The point still stands; loss of opportunity to leave the country for a few years, has low to zero value if you never wanted to anyway.

Hmm I’d rather be working in a bar in Benidorm than Bath thou 🙂

Just because you don’t want to do something shouldn’t stop others from doing it.

Brexit was a criminal removal of peoples rights 🙂

Ah, I used the wrong word. The point still stands; loss of opportunity to leave the country for a few years, has low to zero value if you never wanted to anyway.

School was probably wasted on them too.

In Aviation, the amazing post brexit agreement allows EU licensed pilots to work in the uk, without reciprocal agreements for UK pilots. The airlines lobbied for it as it gives them leverage to squeeze uk pilot wages. It’s even worse than just isolationism.

It’s a narrow view but if I were a young person at the start or early stages of my career, I’d be happy to not have other countries’ smart and ambitious folk competing with me for the available jobs.

I work for a multinational company supplying worldwide, we have difficulty recruiting engineers who have second languages. Long gone are the days that potential overseas customers are expected to be able to speak English. We are just excluded from those markets if we don’t have language representation in those countries.

Speaking from my wife’s point of view (She teaches languages at A level and Post A level), intake for languages have fallen through the floor. When she started, she’d have to run two classes for A level French and most of them would choose a language at university. Last year she had 3 A level students & 7 post A level.

It’s all very well having ambitious folk, but if the work market is limited to our little island then that doesn’t help us either does it?

Thanks for your reasoned arguments. Please do remember that I am pro-EU, am already convinced about the benefits for freedom of movement – at the high level, and for individuals who wish to make use of it. You can argue towards me about those if you like but I’ll just agree with you. My point is about consequences of freedom of movement without freedom of trade – people moving, work staying where it is, causing an imbalance that is bad for people at the destination who don’t wish to move in the other direction.

They go hand-in-hand.

This is a pillar of the point I’m making. I’m not following you here now; this post sounds like a retort to what I’ve said, yet it’s agreeing with what I’m saying. My doubts are specifically about free movement without freedom of trade.

Sorry, but the argument that it protects young people from competition for jobs is nonsense.

It suited you and I’m happy it worked out. I don’t see however how the factors you mention demonstrate that what I said is nonsense. You leaving opened up a job for someone possibly local, but you arriving abroad may well have taken an opportunity from someone who was already local there. I get the point about allowing people to find the place where they fit in best, as it benefits them and everyone. However if that place was where they already lived, and they now have to move away, which they didn’t want to, then for them as a self interested individual it’s not good.

I went abroad to work for a company that was trying to grow business with a big UK client and they wanted to hire a native to help with that. Without me they may not have won the business and that foreign company may have remained smaller.

Without you as one person, would a UK company have won that work and carried it out here using numerous staff? Nothing wrong there, but there are losers when these things happen.

You’ve got it arse about face bikeandboots. The smart and ambitious people were those that left and those that arrived picked fruit, served food and worked for low pay in the NHS. Competition for well-qualified, competetive jobs was reduced. Sure I’m simplifying but so were you. The difference is my simplification is closer to reality.

Interesting question about the types that moved in each direction. Plenty of smart ambitious people did come here, and I believe this did increase competition for the kinds of jobs they did. So for the ambitious Brit who didn’t want to leave, that surely can’t be good. I agree with the rest of what you say that losing the freedoms is a great loss overall and a personal disaster for many people.

As for the argument about foreign students taking places away from British ones, that could only be made by someone who was either thoroughly ignorant of the situation, or being deliberately dishonest about it. Overseas student fees subsidise the places of British ones, and universities can expand capacity more or less indefinitely.

Is it not the case that a particular course has a fixed number of places available in a certain year? They could decide to expand next year, but that’s no good if you’re of age this year. I’m sure Oxford uni doesn’t grow all its courses to satisfy the demand; it’s exclusive and the best get in.

Just because you don’t want to do something shouldn’t stop others from doing it.

Brexit was a criminal removal of peoples rights 🙂

I agree with you. I am pro-EU and pro freedom of movement, but I’m more cautious about allowing movement of people without freedom of trade. And what I argue is that for a great deal of individuals thinking purely of their own self interest, not having to compete with the best and ambitious from Europe, is a good thing.

School was probably wasted on them too.

School is wasted on people who don’t want to leave their own country?

It’s all very well having ambitious folk, but if the work market is limited to our little island then that doesn’t help us either does it?

I agree that at scale the freedom of movement is good. And your trade scenario I believe supports my argument that it should come together with freedom of trade. I am cautious about imbalances which could occur when one is available without the other.

The rejected proposals were not freedom of movement, they were limited four year visas for young people to study or work backed with reciprocal rights to study or work for that maximum period… helping build connections between countries. There are obvious trade benefits that stem from young people working across borders (and you don’t have to leave your home country to experience that if people are over here studying or working with you).

I were a young person at the start or early stages of my career, I’d be happy to not have other countries’ smart and ambitious folk competing with me for the available jobs.

This isn’t a zero sum game, from a national perspective. Having more skilled workers creates more jobs. Those companies that used to employ bright young people in the UK would themselves have grown and hired more of everyone. And those bright young people would have shared their skills and everyone would have done more work and gained more skills.

The issue is if there is an imbalance between countries and the rich ones take more than it’s share of talent from the poor ones. That is still playing out in the EU however they seem to be also becoming less poor at the same time so perhaps the ultimate aim of bringing everyone up is working.

Without you as one person, would a UK company have won that work and carried it out here using numerous staff?

They needed what we produced and there wasn’t a UK alternative. Without a company like ours the UK company would have done without, and thats the key point. Companies can just do without stuff they can’t get, but end up performing less well.

At 18 I spent time at an Italian university.  Freedom of movement, with or without, freedom of trade is a two way street.
Yes it probably increases competition as there are more folk able to compete, but it also increases opportunities as there are more places to compete.
Net effect? Probably marginal on competition, but the movement, opportunity, diversity you get – fantastic.

And what I argue is that for a great deal of individuals thinking purely of their own self interest, not having to compete with the best and ambitious from Europe, is a good thing

The giggle is that even after Brexit you really don’t have that, if you look at the U.K. Shortage occupation list you will find that for most of the ‘good’  paying jobs you can still employ ‘forrigners’ so your still competing.

It’s not a small list either 🙂

This isn’t a zero sum game

This is the hardest point to get across to people.

You leaving opened up a job for someone possibly local, but you arriving abroad may well have taken an opportunity from someone who was already local there.

Yes, and someone local who moved to a another country then created a job for the local person whose job I stole.

Like it or not, jobs are becoming more and more specialised.  You can either adapt yourself and do a job you are not completely suited for or you can change location to somewhere else where the jobs are suited to you.  At this stage of my life I’m not really able to move wherever I like but for most young people they are.  This is vitally important for many people to gain the skills they need to succeed in the workforce.

I wonder if you’d be in favour of stopping freedom of movement within the UK?  Surely someone moving from Middlesborough to London is taking an opportunity away from a local?

Who’d want to move to London?

I used to be there regularly for business and it really is a grotty place. Too hot, humid with everyone else’s sweat, dirty, slow moving, and with that incessant growling hum of traffic and air conditioning – like environmental tinnitus.

Although much of that could be applied to Middlesbrough too I suppose.  Possibly not as hot.

What we need is a train (and preferably a car / truck transporter train) straight to Europe, bypassing everywhere in the South East – say no stops after Doncaster.  Let the midlands, northern England and Scotland have a fast trade route without the bottleneck that is London and its commuter belt.

Who’d want to move to London?

Don’t derail the thread but the fact is there is a lot of people who want to move there (for reasons of which you’re unaware) that’s why it’s so big and why property is so expensive.

Don’t derail the thread but the fact is there is a lot of people who want to move there (for reasons of which you’re unaware) that’s why it’s so big and why property is so expensive.

I was thinking about moving to London for a while and I was amazed at just how easy it would be to find a job down there.  Three interviews, three job offers, all within the space of a few weeks.  Compared to Glasgow where it was a cycle of application, rejection, and depression, I couldn’t believe how easy it would be to move up the career ladder down there.

Ultimately I realised if I set my sights a bit further afield I could find better jobs in places that didn’t have the costs associated with London, and that even had some decent mountain biking.

I thank my lucky stars I’m not in my mid-20s in the UK right now.

20 years ago today 75 million people joined the EU. Some of us are celebrating that. Since joining Estonia’s GDP has tripled.

Some interesting reports on European news channels.

The smart and ambitious people were those that left and those that arrived picked fruit, served food and worked for low pay in the NHS.

There are plenty in the nuclear industry, mind you it’s pretty international regardless but it wasn’t really a one way street. For every fruit picker you had a ski bum seasonnaire in the alps or someone working a bar in the med. Even in the shipping industry there were those wanting to come and live here due to the difference in the standard of living.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/01/non-eu-workers-outnumber-eu-staff-in-various-uk-industry-sectors

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/9699524/Britain-being-hit-by-rise-in-graduate-brain-drain.html

Note that the second article dates from 2012 and covers trends over the previous 20 years of freedom of movement. 1 in 10 graduates were leaving.

Against that even foreigners that were/are educated and graduated/ing in the UK were/are very unlikely to stay. The brain drain was real before Brexit. Little change there then apart from the obvious change in university recruiting strategies post Brexit.

The part of my post you quoted was a little frivilous but if you dig you’ll find it reflects realities.

Being a ski bum is a passage for most people who do it (bin there, done that). More important is their destination.

For sure, I’m not knocking it and it’s just as valuable a journey as any other.

1 in 10 grads may have been leaving but the article says nothing about how many are/were coming in, I can’t see anything that supports that part of your argument. The first article is fair enough, it makes sense that EU workers will follow the path of least resistance and remain within the EU and other nationalities will fill that void.

If neither of us can find stats on line we’re down anecdotes from forum members. When I worked in Val d’Isere the ski bums were amonst the highest qualified people I’ve worked with in any sector and I’ve worked in a lot as an English teacher – all of the biggest companies in this region except Total and companies in Barcelona, Strasbourg, Nancy, Marseille. In those companies all the Brits employed were at graduate/management level except one. Foreign workers filling poorly paid jobs in Europe are rarely Brits, the jobs are filled with North Africans, Turks and as with the UK, people from the less properous EU countries. Even the British camp site couriers had better CVs than any of the companies I temped with or worked full time in the UK.

Now think about the forum members who are working or have worked abroad. There’s one tradesman, some MTB/ski specific as you might expect on an MTB forum, several IT and many graduates. There was one nurse a few years back but I really can’t think of any low-paid British migrant workers.

Of the Brits I know socially here there are four teachers, a university lecturer, an oil engineer, a landscape gardener (a Los Angeles olympic squad swimmer), an aerospace technician and landed gentry. Then there are more of Spanish and Portuguese origin than I can be bothered to count, Polish, Turk, North African – they have much more varied educational backgrounds.

The rejected proposals were not freedom of movement, they were limited four year visas for young people to study or work backed with reciprocal rights to study or work for that maximum period

I do understand that. While they are here however, the effects are the same or similar.

This isn’t a zero sum game, from a national perspective. Having more skilled workers creates more jobs.

I get this too. At the national level, it isn’t a zero-sum game, however at the individual level when you’re competing for one of 10 jobs on a grad scheme, or one of 100 places on a uni course, it seems that it very much is one.

The issue is if there is an imbalance between countries and the rich ones take more than it’s share of talent from the poor ones.

Yes, and also not just about the talented ones. I remember seeing some detailed maps a few years back that showed some regions of the EU losing 25-30% of their young people to other countries. The opposite applies too when too many untalented people (car washers etc.) move to rich countries, placing greater burden on the resources of that country than the value they produce through work.

if you look at the U.K. Shortage occupation list you will find that for most of the ‘good’  paying jobs you can still employ ‘forrigners’ so your still competing.

It’s not a small list either 🙂

Oh yes, didn’t consider that.

I wonder if you’d be in favour of stopping freedom of movement within the UK?  Surely someone moving from Middlesborough to London is taking an opportunity away from a local?

No. It’s less of a life upheaval to move within a country, and a reasonable expectation for someone wanting to pick a job rather than taking what’s available on the doorstep. Interesting parallel though with brain drain, concentration of people, strain on resources etc.

No. It’s less of a life upheaval to move within a country, and a reasonable expectation for someone wanting to pick a job rather than taking what’s available on the doorstep.

The thing is that before Brexit it wasn’t more of an upheaval. I agree with the second sentence, before Brexit it was easier for someone poor to move from Wales to almost anywhere in France than London.

No. It’s less of a life upheaval to move within a country,

Not when you’re 21.

I moved to Spain at that age.  Even given the fact I didn’t speak the language when I arrived (I could after a few months) it was still relatively straight forward to find a job, somewhere to live, etc.

And it definitely was just middle class kids on a gap year doing it.  Working class kids who were switched on and wanted a change vastly outnumbered the rich kids.  I suspect the rich kids were busy ‘travelling’ while the rest of us were busy working.

Of course, thanks to Brexit, it’s no longer that easy.

So disgruntled 21 year olds can now stay home and do a shitty job they hate or sign on instead.

There really is a lack of understanding about just how easy it was to rock up to anywhere you wanted in Europe whenever you wanted.  It was literally the same as moving to London.  But far more pleasant.

Who’d want to move to London?

Immigrants, loads of them. Maybe the more interesting question is who’d want to move to NE England, Northern Ireland or Wales? Immigrants are avoiding those places like the plague.

This isn’t a zero sum game, from a national perspective.

It’s not a zero sum game, but the observed reality is that far more EU people moved into the UK than UK people moved to other EU countries during freedom of movement. If freedom of movement had continued, the massive wave of post-Brexit non-EU immigration probably would have had more (but not all) EU immigration.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/

School is wasted on people who don’t want to leave their own country?

On many of them, yes.

Imagine having the level of ambition that couldn’t see past only living/working in the country you were born in?

They’re not the kind of folk that built Britain, but they are the kind of folk who’ll help its demise…

I guess at this point I should also put my hand up that I too took advantage of FOM, we moved to Germany in the early 00’s, asked no one for permission – just got a job and then rented a house.  I also performed jobs for years that since the UK left even though they were based in the London area would now be filled by those with both UK & EU passport/living rights.  Just too difficult managing folk with limited country rights, I know based on an American who was in one of my teams (he ended up getting UK citizenship…).

I see that Brexit patriot Dyson is further cutting his UK workforce by 1000.

I’m guessing the HUGE Brexit wins have been destroyed by the Labour party. In 5 days. Or something.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2660ldn2o

There’s another rejoin/Brexit petition going the rounds, perhaps in response to events on the other side of the Atlantic:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700005

These days with quite a few EU governments veering off towards the far right I now wonder if maybe we dodged a bullet. I signed anyway because at this point it has clearly had no tangible benefit and it’s about time that as a nation, we came to terms with the fact that Brexit is a total turd.

Forget it.

You’re not allowed to draw any attention to the fact that’s it’s a total balls-up. Turns out most chest-puffing Brexity halfwits are actually snowflakes.