Brexit 2020+

Nothing is keeping you here

Ha! The standard kneejerk response of the misguided offended patriot. I was born here, unfortunately, and yes while the idea of leaving is very appealing (and not entirely beyond my resources), I have strong connections with friends and family which I wouldn’t want to break, along with the usual reasons of the hassle of starting a new life somewhere else. I’ve never quite understood why people such as yourself get so offended when their fellow citizens declare a dislike for the government and culture in which they have to live.

Nothing is keeping you here, so why not go & live in another country then?

I have in the past, and I’d absolutely love to again (you have no idea), there are only two issues:

1) My ageing parents may need my support in the next decade or so, and

2) MY RIGHT TO FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT HAS JUST BEEN TAKEN AWAY

How stupid can you be to vote to severely restrict someone’s ability to leave the country and then say ‘why don’t you leave the country?’ Honestly, the brains of some people…

Not if he moves before the end of 2020 and applies for citizenship somewhere

A bit late Dazh, you have been telling us since the referendum that we as remoaners need to accept the result and move on.

What was wrong with Molly’s thread?

Nothing. I created this before I saw the other one was all, and as I said on the first page I was very tired.

Nothing is keeping you here, so why not go & live in another country then?

Great idea. Move to France, then get deported in 12 months because that’s literally what you’ve voted for. Thought about this, haven’t you.

Besides which – why should I? If leavers are so desperate not to live in a European country, why don’t they bugger off to America or Australia or Russia or somewhere? Everyone’s a winner.

Not if he moves before the end of 2020 and applies for citizenship somewhere

Which EU country allows you to apply for citizenship if you have only lived there for less than one year, and have no previous claim in citizenship? Genuine question. I’m ignoring options that require huge financial reserves.

 we as remoaners need to accept the result and move on.

We do. We lost, but it doesn’t stop me hating the ****ers even more, and the hatred levels are quite high right now. It’ll probably pass, but it’s going to take a while. The trouble is that being able to say ‘I told you so’ may feel good for a very short amount of time, but it’s not something to celebrate.

TJ I’m not sure Hume would approve of you bating Brexiteers. A man who hated certainty (I’m sure he’d have a lot to say about Remainers), was ruthlessly skeptical but was renowned for his general good humour in how he conducted himself.

He is role model for how it’s possible to attack ideas rather than individuals.

Brexit has happened. All we can try and do is shape where we go from here. The Nihilists who’ve given up or are sulking about it, it’s just sad.

All these amazing ideas and chemes for new tax incentives, new industry, employment and social services. Terrific and all that, but where is the money coming from?

(the answer is of course a rise in taxes……)

The other big concern i have is over energy security. Leaving Europe reduced our “energy catchment area”, as we try to move to renewables, and as our exsiting generation assets age (a lot of our baseload assets are already running well into “overtime” ie are running past their design life today), will we really be able to negate “amazing deals” for energy from our European neighbours.

Immagine the bargaining table conversation:

UK: We’d like to buy some of your electricity
Europe: OK, great, of course, it’s £1 a kWh.
UK: WHOA THERE! what, £1? your’re having a laugh!, we’re oonly gonna pay 10 pence per kWh
Europe: Ok, bye. thanks for asking!
.
.
.
2 years later, and with the lights turning off across the UK

UK: Hey Europe, we’ve changed our mind, we’ll pay that £1 now
Europe: Hah, no, it’s £2 per kWh now……..

The other big concern i have is over energy security.

We’re building the biggest gas power station in the world Europe at Drax to cope… that pro Brexit planet killer with no sense and no feelings for anyone but her self (Andrea Lothsome) signed it off, ignoring the advice of all experts in all areas that it shouldn’t go ahead.

TAKE BACK CONTROL

Edit: just read that there is a fresh legal challenge… but that kind check/balance on what the government can do to us (and the planet) is unlikely to be a barrier to this Leave government.

The question now is what else their ‘victory’ will usher in?

I always worry when I watch triumphalist right-wing nut-jobs in celebratory mood. Unfortunately those bell ends are very much in the ascendency, drunk on their own hubris.

I’ll give it 3 months before they’re waging an orchastrated campaign to bring back hanging, with the vocal support of many senior Tory MP’s

Some concrete ideas from Chewkw on the previous page. I think he’s probably right. The EU won’t sign up to anything that isn’t level playing field so just go for all out competition as the only hope of making Brexit profitable. A western hemisphere Singapour and to hell with the welfare state.

The last 2 1/2 years have been about arguing the rules for the kick-boxing match. Gentlement take you gloves off, gum shields out, no groin protectors, get in that ring and get stuck in.

I’m wondering which country will land the first blow now that the UK is definitely out and the gloves are off. If I were Spain it would be Gibralta, as France I’d like it to be the financial passport, if I were German it would be car tax equality with the US, if I were Italian it would be refugee quotas, if… .

If I were Spain it would be Gibralta

I think I might enjoy the next 12 months of the EU giving plucky little england a harsh lesson in 21st century realpolitik. It’s going to be brutal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/brexit-trade-talks-eu-to-back-spain-over-gibraltar-claims

I’m glad you’re looking forward to it.

I’m not.

I feel like a back seat passenger in a car being driven by a pissed up maniac

Finally, a detailed insight into why we’re leaving. If only we’d had this three years ago.

Cheers Cougar I couldn’t work out how to post that video of Mooman.

I’m not.

Me neither.

And those hoping for disaster to ‘teach them a lesson’ sink far lower in my estimations than people who voted for this based on promises that it will improve things.

I don’t think it’ll be disaster, or rather I’m hopeful that it won’t. I do think it’ll limit the life choices of millions, and be a very expensive diversion for companies, institutions and individuals. A lost decade or more, rather than a crash of some kind. If we all work our nuts off to fix everything that this breaks, bit by bit, over the rest of our working lives, for the sake of the next generation, it’ll just be a huge waste of effort, rather than something worse. Hopefully.

Cougar, that’s the video I was referring to on the other thread last night.

If there was ever an advert as to why never to let people have a referendum again, that man is it.

Some concrete ideas from Chewkw on the previous page. I think he’s probably right. The EU won’t sign up to anything that isn’t level playing field so just go for all out competition as the only hope of making Brexit profitable. A western hemisphere Singapour and to hell with the welfare state.

Like I said if you have muppets in govt then you have a problem. Just like at your present workplace, how many times have you heard of your boss being a muppet for mismanaging at work? It is the same with UK during and after Brexit. Where I work I have muppets as bosses and how they manage to get the job is astonishing i.e. by complying with bureaucratic tick boxes. Their management skills are practically zero other than inherited the system with power and authority given to them.
Just like in any companies UK will have to undergo a period of “restructuring” to make herself competitive. The tax incentives must be put in place to reorganise to help boost the industries etc and you may call this tax honeymoon period (need to have this for at least 20 years) before they can return back to silly tax regime (hopefully not). Plant the seed now and in few years time UK will be able to enjoy the fruit of their labour (don’t have to wait for 20 years).
Of course EU won’t sign up to anything they don’t like or put them at a disadvantage coz that is the nature of competition.

Cougar, that’s the video I was referring to on the other thread last night.

If there was ever an advert as to why never to let people have a referendum again, that man is it.

In Are Wayne’s defence, he did look absolutely plastered. Perhaps he’d have been a bit less likely to become the next muslamic rayguns Internet meme if he’d had six fewer cans of Tennant’s Super before the interview.

Nothing. I created this before I saw the other one was all, and as I said on the first page I was very tired.

I got the  the impression that you’d made an announcement on that thread that it would close at a particular time and you’d then start a new one, not just that you’d missed the other one.

Go and get some sleep, and don’t worry binners will wake you with a kiss in a 100 years and whisper the glorious news that we are back in.

What was wrong with my thread?

You lost, get over it.

That video. Thick as **** mince.

Nothing is keeping you here, so why not go & live in another country then?

Great idea. Move to France, then get deported in 12 months because that’s literally what you’ve voted for. Thought about this, haven’t you.

Yep brexits done.

Still, questions remain as to which former EU residence rights each country ultimately will extend to British citizens, who instantly become third-country nationals in the event of a no-deal Brexit at the end of the 11-month transition period

To make the situation even more uncertain, in some countries such as France and Spain, Brits never have had to register as permanent residents, which introduces another layer of anxiety. Until they get their long-term residence status as a third-country nationals, they’ll won’t be able to leave their host country, then return as anything but tourists.

I’m wondering which country will land the first blow now that the UK is definitely out and the gloves are off. If I were Spain it would be Gibralta, as France I’d like it to be the financial passport, if I were German it would be car tax equality with the US, if I were Italian it would be refugee quotas, if…

Looks like the starting gun has been fired already. Triggered by Big Bens recorded Bongs, most likely…

Brexit trade talks: EU to back Spain over Gibraltar claims

The UK is about to get one almighty reality check

Yay. Something for Frank Marcois to start sabre rattling about. Imagine the opportunity to show the EU Army what for.

I imagine the EU Army must be massive since Turkey joined.

I’ve watched a few of those interview videos now. They all follow a similar pattern, and something has occurred to me.

The brexiters got what they wanted last night. In their minds, we’ve left, job done. They don’t care about (or even remotely understand) the detail. When asked how they think it will affect their lives, better or worse, the answer is “it won’t.”

If we quietly extended the transition period to say 2120, it’d never be mentioned again and both sides would be happy.

hey dazh, calm down love. you should try understanding those leave voters…

There’s undoubtedly some shoddy journalism in this, but I wonder… a little truth?

European fugitives could flee from the UK to their home countries as three EU countries confirm they will not extradite their own nationals to Britain now that Brexit has happened.

​
Austria, Germany, and Slovenia have confirmed they will not extradite their nationals to the UK during the 11-month Brexit transition period which starts tomorrow.


https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-countries-have-stopped-extraditing-criminals-to-uk-after-brexit-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

It’s not just those three, France doesn’t generally extradite its citizens but does so under the European European arrest warrant system. Britain is no longer in the system and the 19th century conventions between France and the UK were torn up a few years back (no longer necessary under the European system). We’re in a legal void – no extraditions.

I suspect I know the answer to this, but what are the tests and/or measures of whether this has been a success? Will the brexiteers still be crowing about their victory in 5-10 years if the country is properly on its knees? Or will it have to get so bad that a party wins an election based on rejoining?

R4 was asking the same to Bill Cash yesterday…. how will he measure if it’s a success. And even he can’t answer that, so resorted to the same old tactic of answer a different question over and over.

‘It’ll be a success if we leave fully at the end of the year’

‘ And if the economy drops by 50% ?’

‘That won’t happen’

‘So how much can it drop by for it to still be a success

‘It’ll be a success because we are leaving, which is what the electorate voted for. Doing what they wanted makes it a success’

FFS.

If my wife wants the house to be a bit warmer and I set fire to it, I assume he thinks that’s a success too?

Yeah but surely people don’t think brexit is a single event, rather than a long process over decades, and can be totally forgotten about now it’s been ‘done’?

Right? Right?

Guess ware going to have some epic ‘it’s not brexit, honest!’ excuses for why things will start to fail. More so than we’ve had so far.

If there was ever an advert as to why never to let people have a referendum again, that man is it.

There’s always care needed with that logic. We’re all relatively inarticulate. One Rees-Mogg and Mr Cummings probably see us as expendable, ill educated and not worthy of the vote. Generally lacking the intellect to comprehend the world as they believe it is – which is the only true reality.

Maybe the problem isnt who should be able to vote but how bad we are at communicating. Admittedly a bit of challenge when we live in a country that only handles binary. Where everything beyond two is lots and so just goes into background noise.

When the referendum was on I worked in a very pro leave office – we need a change was the main reason put forward; backed with concerns about under investment, loss of industry… basically everything to do with domestic policy. There was a general feeling of life was not good and Brexit enabled that to be articulated -rightly or wrongly – simply. There were a few I dont know so I won’t vote and even one I dont know but I’m voting leave otherwise it counts as a vote for remain. The odd life was better out – ones who where actually old enough to remember out even if they were still at school – generally ones who felt life wasn’t treating them well / was way way harder than it used to be. Harshly it might also be the glory of youth that some were missing.

You realise selling pro Europe benefits aren’t even on the radar. You’re talking to people about we what we already have (had) and it wasn’t bringing any obvious benefits.

My predictions for 2020+

Boris and co attempt Trumpism with trade war type actions with EU in order to gain leverage.

EU responds by

Realising that it has no need to sell anything to the UK, and profits from not importing anything from the UK but trading with other EU members and partners, creating opportunity to fill the void left by anything they require from the UK by…

Throwing doors open to UK migrants, both bussiness and personal
creating a huge exodus of talented skilled educated people and thriving businesses who are granted EU citizenship and rights based on an AUS type point system*

UK becomes dependant on 3rd parties for everything as it has a population of gammons and corrupt politicians only to sustain it and gets chopped up and sold off in bits to jonny forriner investments inc..

UK market becomes saturated with Air BnBs owned by UK migrants tavilable so new “leavers” can pop over to spend their mighty euros as they please and laugh at the gammony “remainers” if so inclined

*point being if you are a gammon you stay put in the UK.

There was a general feeling of life was not good and Brexit enabled that to be articulated -rightly or wrongly – simply.

We’ve been over that a million times… so what change will those people welcome now that it’s coming next year?

Or we back to “where’s my Elephant” in 2016, replaced by nothing more than cheerful optimism and pride in 2020 (but no actual idea what should happen next)?

[not that optimism and pride can’t be positive and essential driving factors… but you have to have optimism and pride in something for it to be channeled usefully, don’t you?]

We’ve been over that a million times… so what change will those people welcome now that it’s coming next year?

That is the right question – unfortunately it would take a very very long time to tease out and get past the quick punch lines and into the feelings. It is really, what question are you going to ask?

Using the following as an example of not really people having the skills to articulate:

My own view, and following the rules of Brexit that analogy to films or past events must be used at all times. The next step is like the bit in Rocky Balboa where the trainer tells him what he can or cant do and focus on the strengths.

That’s what pops into my head when you say Brexit transition. Well that and a meme showing Boris with his hands in the air and ‘Just like that – staff – future gone’ underneath it in the style of the just like that weekend gone one. Which probably means I think there is a way to get benefits from Brexit, its going to be hard work, a strong does of reality is required but I dont have faith in the people leading the country.

@theotherjonv

That Cash quote is scary. If we ever needed any more evidence that Brexit is another “True World Theory” for a lot of people then this is it.

Brexit is good because it’s what the people want. What the people want is good.

OK, where have we heard this shit argument before. Oh yeah, every organised religion and every 20th century tyranny.

We do. We lost

Indeed we did. We need to move on, but we must not forget all the methods that the other side used to achieve what they did. We need to re-adjust our strategy and target the support mechanisms that they relied upon for a start.

The politicians, well the Prime minister is in it for himself, so will let the more committed to the cause tories do whatever damage they want, and since they ejected the more fiscally conservative tories so to speak, there will be money thrown at the problems that will inevitably arise from trying to achieve the pure ideological dreams of turning the country into a true free market economy, remember these people are thatchers children, this is her endgame. Also remember that the ruling party is not the party of business, it is the party of finance and hedge fund managers, so the rest of the economy can go down the toilet for all they care.

As for a deal by the end of this year? It will be a no deal brexit. This is what thatchers children want, and I think they wouldn’t care if they are voted out in five years because of it, the damage will have been done…of course the passage of time and the narrative of the story in that time may play a part in this, along with whatever opposition, effective or otherwise is available.

Speaking of the narrative, Brexit is done as far as many are concerned. I’d be surprised if there is any bad news happening because of brexit in the UK reported by the right wing press or our national news broadcaster to make people realise that it isn’t done by a long way, except of course to further vilify the EU over “how badly we are being treated” over a trade deal, which will further prepare people for a no deal brexit…and slow down any potential re-join.

The narrative is the key, it won them the referendum, so their narrative in the future must be disrupted and subverted. This may not work on those who ignored noble words, facts or reality, and wanted to be lied to, so to take a leaf out of the brexiters wordbook it must be done “by any means necessary”.

Of course there’s the Usa and trump trade deal, and a number of brexiters revere trump and his “revolution”. A useful weapon here is to point out what has he actually done in reality. This may not impact on those who once again want to be lied to, but every little helps.

Finally, a detailed insight into why we’re leaving. If only we’d had this three years ago.

The media did seem to seek out these particular people, as they had had enough of experts, they are a significant minority, and any attempt to re-join the EU will need to keep this in mind. Because they believe that in or out of the EU has no impact on them(I think the next five years will change a few of their minds) they need to be manoeuvred into a position of irrelevance. But that will rely on ground work carried out elsewhere so when the time comes to re-join, their views won’t matter.

Much like my feelings about the wonderful northern working class following the election, I’m done with trying to understand or empathise with them. They can all go and **** themselves.

Some of us working class northerner’s neither voted leave or Tory.