Boris – boot in trap moment, Obama content

Obama live on BBC news now with a q&a session for young people.

jambalaya – Member – Block User
As others have said on TV today Obama is a lame duck President

They’re wrong. ‘Lame duck’ refers to the time between his successor being elected and sworn in.

I also think he’s perfectly within his rights to comment on it, after all the leave campaign say that we’ll just trade with other countries. Useful to be able to deflect when the leader of one of those other countries says ‘Not that easy’.

Two things I’ve enjoyed this week are Gove criticising the ‘campaign of fear’ and then suggesting that voting to remain is like “voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car driven headlong toward deeper EU integration” and then the Vote Leave campaign director’s quotes:

“I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures,” Cummings announced triumphantly, his eyes swivelling manically.

“But Vote Leave quotes numerous figures on its website,” said Tyrie, “Most of them misleading or inaccurate.”

“Accuracy is for snake-oil pussies,” Cummings hissed under his breath. “And besides, I’ve got a really bad memory.”

“Is it not true that you only provide the costs of the EU and none of the benefits? You make the same mistake as Boris Johnson. You don’t read carefully enough. Wouldn’t it have been useful to have done some of the maths.”

“It’s just a matter of a few decimal points,” Cummings said.

Tyrie blinked. Earlier on he had been prepared to accept he might have been dealing with an idiot savant. It only now dawned on him that he was just dealing with an idiot complete.

“There are quite a lot of decimal points between £33bn and £16bn,” he pointed out.

We could talk about why the EU was the most corrupt organisation on Earth, we could talk about why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove weren’t actually members of the establishment, we could talk about why everyone in the Treasury and the Bank of England were complete morons, we could talk about all sort of secret threats that secret people were making about secret things that he would have to keep secret, but talking figures wasn’t on the table.

…

No, he couldn’t confirm whether a Vote Leave advert had been deliberately designed to look like an NHS brochure. No, he couldn’t confirm Britain was in the single market, because we definitely weren’t even though we definitely were. No he couldn’t confirm why Vote Leave was claiming that intra EU trade had fallen since 1999 when official figures showed it had actually gone up by 39%.

So it went on. No, he couldn’t confirm when Vote Leave would make the macro-economic case for Brexit because these figures were obviously top secret and if he were to make them public then they wouldn’t be secret any more. No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed. No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy.

Actual WTF

BTW I’m out of further discussion. I’m out and know a fair few more who don’t want the hassle of being brow beaten but have chosen our direction. Bye

So what? He might want to be PM

The problem is….he’s bloody inept!

Remain who don’t really care either way and won’t make the effort

Sounds like wishful thinking to me..

@Lifer yes I too think Obama is within his rights to comment althoighbI think the whole PR dog and pony show was way over the top. Whether tou think lame duck is the right term Obama will not be President when any negotiation would take place.

@JY if you cant or won’t see how the political bias of the EU is at odds with the US or how over the years the US has challenged the EU over what it sees as illegal state aid for companies like Airbus then there is no hope,for you 😉

@hora indeed. All I can say is that the Leavers are very motivated and will vote. I think there are many who answer Remain who don’t really care either way and won’t make the effort. Beforevthe campaign started I thoight itbwould be very hard for Leave to win, now I am much more confident

No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed.

Well we could name the Greek lady who made Partner (worth £75m ?) on the back of her special relationship with Greece and lots of clever off state balance sheet currency swaps (or loans to you and me) which where common knowledge but ignored by ECB etc

Sounds like wishful thinking to me..

Call it what you like but there where 15 of us on the Leave stall last wekend with many visitors, 2 blokes on the IN campaign stall and hardly anyone visiting, we watched all morning. Its no co-incidmce the government spent £9.3m on printing and delivering the leaflet as their grass roots operation is very limited, vote Leave has volunteers on the ground doing that work and not reliant on the tax payer

Call it what you like but there where 15 of us on the Leave stall last wekend with many visitors, 2 blokes on the IN campaign stall and hardly anyone visiting, we watched all morning. Its no co-incidmce the government spent £9.3m on printing and delivering the leaflet as their grass roots operation is very limited, vote Leave has volunteers on the ground doing that work and not reliant on the tax payer

Anecdotal evidence…..is just that..

That Cummings Treasury Committee appearance report must be a spoof. No-one could be that much of an insane arsehole.

Anecdotal evidence…..is just that..

Infectious though. Very interesting to have Mrs B alongside and to hear how surpirsed people are when they find out she’s French and very much for Leave. The only evidence or poll that matters is on June 23rd

@JY if you cant or won’t see how the political bias of the EU is at odds with the US or how over the years the US has challenged the EU over what it sees as illegal state aid for companies like Airbus then there is no hope,for you

I can be convinced by actual facts – do you have any or is it just more of this?
FWIW your point was that the EU dislike the US – this time you seem to have argued that the US hates the EU.

JY attitude goes both ways. There are decades worth of statements and challenges to Airbus alone, read up about the tanker contract for example. Think about it the EU has been about For a very long time and no trade deal with the US ? A big part of the rationale for the EU has been to create a trading block to challenge the US, not to cosy up to the US but to challenge it. On Foreign policy look at Obama’s stance on Russia/Ukraine – he told the EU to get on with it and take action, Germany and France where extremely reluctant as as far as they are concerned the US has the big army/clout and they could see only lost trade. I bet you Obama has got some pretty strong words for the EU at the migrant summit on Monday. Even the UK which is a strong ally was publically critised by Obama over Libya “Cameron was distracted”

I assure you Obama and the US are not impressed at all by the situation the EU have allowed with Greece (and Spain and Italy too), that default will impact everyone very negatively. The US will be doing all it can to have the IMF exit the loans so it doesn’t lose money directly there.

I am going to take an outlandish and wild stab in the dark here and claim that it is his right wing policies that makes left wing people dislike him. I know its a bit radical and out there compared to your rational, non trolly vows

That’s a good point Junky, now, can we think of anyone else who the left hated because of their ‘right wing’ policies, but somehow the public embraced and kept voting for?

History seems to suggest that ‘popular and charismatic leader with right of centre policies’ is hardly the worlds worst electoral strategy…

Read what Obama said:

Obama argued that he had a right to respond to the claims of Brexit campaigners that Britain would easily be able to negotiate a fresh trade deal with the US. “They are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the president of the United States what I think the United States is going to do.

“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done”.

He added: “The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”

If you can read that totally unambiguous statement of fact by the President of the United States, but are happy to disregard it in favour of the incoherent racist ramblings of the Self-serving Mop then quite frankly your utterly hatstand foaming-at-the-mouth bonkers! simpke as that.

I’d say that most people possessed of the capacity for rational thought, and the self-awareness to see sense through small-minded backward looking fantacy, and look to their own interests will have stopped listening to the petty racism of Johnson and Farage

Or just face up to the facts, and at least have the honesty to admit they their vote will be cast not on the facts, but on the back of their similarly held petty, inward-gazing and small-minded racist views

Cheers ninfan we do indeed agree that the left hate folk for their policies rather than populism.

Or perhaps ‘hate folk for their policies but embrace them due to their popularity’ 😉

So voting to leave EU means we avoid TTIP?

@tmh if Vote Leave wins Boris is a shoe in for Party Leader within 12 months,

Is a very good reason to vote stay in. Boris used to be able to play the loveable fool or even the Shakespearan fool. Now he just plays the fool and Fail readers aside, it’s easy to see straight through him – Mr Celophane.

from a Greek default/EU economic crises

Greece will expose the flaws in the € folly true, that is clear. BUT, this time the risk is manageable and little more than a side show. You know where Greek debt is held and the losses will be hidden. There is little systematic risk.

The economic crisis remains one of leverage/balance sheet recession (not Greece as you are claiming often) and that is not unique to Europe. Of course the stupidity of having a fixed currency without full monetary and fiscal union makes matters worse (especially for our friends in Greece), but that is a separate debate, albeit the most important one. The idea that Greece is going to trigger an economic crisis in Europe is flawed, sorry.

This is the reason why the current referendum is a stupid idea (with even stupider level of debate) because the key issues are not central to the debate. How can you argue in or out when you’re unclear about what it is that you are voting to be in or out of? The ONLY certainty is that the current structure is unsustainable, so why vote about whether you want to be a part of it? We might as well vote about whether we want to be part of the ERM!!

Madness.

Apparently, the back of the queue line was off the official script, so led to a little bit of diplomatic unease!!

But nos amis en France have said the same thing in the past 24 hours.

Now of course, in the event of Brexit, we are not going to be isolated from the world, but still it is extreme arrogance or folly (or both) to pretend (like Gove) tht negotiations will be either quick or easier or that we will have a stronger hand than we do now.

Madness.

binners – Member

If you can read that totally unambiguous statement of fact by the President of the United States,

Is it not fact that it won’t be up to President Obama, as he won’t be in office?
And since when did you have so much faith in the words of politicians?

but are happy to disregard it in favour of the incoherent racist ramblings of the Self-serving Mop then quite frankly your utterly hatstand foaming-at-the-mouth bonkers! simple as that.

Calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
The “Junkyard gambit” is alive and well!

I’d say that most people possessed of the capacity for rational thought, and the self-awareness to see sense through small-minded backward looking fantasy, and look to their own interests

Junckers has taught you well!

will have stopped listening to the petty racism of Johnson and Farage

When did you stop beating your wife, binners? 😉

Or just face up to the facts, and at least have the honesty to admit they their vote will be cast not on the facts, but on the back of their similarly held petty, inward-gazing and small-minded racist views

Fact or fiction? We currently trade with the US, a lot.

Fact or fiction? Trade with the US will stop, post Brexit.

See if you can provide answers to the above without resorting to insults, and if you could convey your answer using words rather than pictures it would be appreciated. 🙂

Greece isn’t over yet. It’s sat on a huge debt. Italy and Spain are also not in the rudest health.

Where do you draw the line? When Greece finally folds on its debt. It will.

Lifer

I also think he’s perfectly within his rights to comment on it, after all the leave campaign say that we’ll just trade with other countries. Useful to be able to deflect when the leader of one of those other countries says ‘Not that easy’.

You do know that we currently trade with the US, don’t you?
Do you think it will just stop if we leave the EU?

No

Calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
The “Junkyard gambit” is alive and well!

No its stating opinions that the facts dont substantiate [ or willfully ignoring them] that makes you an idiot. Its perfectly fine to disagree with me but its not when you have to make shit up to do it….you know about make shit up though to make a point though dont you 😉

Its a fairish point you make but it those who ignore evidence i “struggle” with not different opinions per se.

Fact or fiction? We currently trade with the US, a lot.

Depending on the meaning of the word a lot then yes its true
Around 17% of all British exports went to the US in 2012.
The EU was over 50%

Fact or fiction? Trade with the US will stop, post Brexit.

Fiction. It will be largely unaltered.

Of course Greece isn’t over. It never could be – everyone knows the can was merely kicked down the road – yes the EU love to do that sort of things – it is a true weakness, that one. But the losses will be hidden away in Central Bank balance sheets and absorbed primarily by the taxpayers of Ger, Fr, Italy, Spain and the Neth. Especially the Germans. But that is exactly how these things are designed to pan out however much the Germans like to pretend otherwise. Reep what you sow and all that.

However, Greece is merely a symptom of a different problem and is not a cause of a future crisis, We have that in place already.

But step back and imagine a blank sheet of paper. How would you like to interact with one of the world’s largest trading zones? What might you want (access, influence etc) and what would you look to avoid (being part of a flawed currency structure, Schengen (perhaps?), greater political union etc).

Now deep breath, what do we have now? The vote, despite being a poorly timed one, suddenly becomes obvious doesnt it. So obvious that the alternative has to be dressed up in gross distortions and BS. Enter Boris stage right ….

Isn’t the desperate necessity of a free trade agreement with the United States somewhat undermined by the fact that we don’t already have one?

The US prefers to deal with regional trade negotiations and has stated that it is “not in the market for deals with individual nations.”

And trade barriers between the US and EU continue to be reduced – comes back to the blanks sheet of paper

Would you want to be part of a group that is in a better or worse negotiating position with the US?

Good to see Boris still using the pre-rebate figures for our costs of membership. How easily he forgets his dear Maggie? I wonder if he does that deliberately or is he just being thick?

There’s a pro in bloke on FB with quite a few followers, he posted some twaddle about our experts of oil and our dependence on foreign oil etc. I posted up stats/official figures and his reply was ‘see we aren’t a earth friendly nation’ etc. Hand/forehead slap moment. I’ll have a look for it.

THM, is that really answering the question though?

it’s not like we already have one and leaving the EU would endanger it, UK trade with US is already over £100bn annually without a free trade agreement.

Good to see Boris still using the pre-rebate figures for our costs of membership

If the ONS publish it (tab 9.9 in the pink book: “UK official transactions with institutions of the EU” line: “total debits”) then it’s fair to use it as a valid figure, it’s not like he made it up himself.

Would you want to be part of a group that is in a better or worse negotiating position with the US?

I don’t want to part of the group full stop.

*Free trade; great.
Free movement; great.

Ever expansionist; not great.
Ever increasing political union; not great.

*I’m well aware that there are many posters here who think the cost to the UK of EU membership is worth it for this and that we can’t have free trade for free.
Well that’s exactly what the majority of EU member states get. Not only that, but we pay them for their privilege!

Bailing out the southern states because of their gross corruption is only going to cost us more.

I also don’t want to be responsible for the actions of the EU army, which will happen. The people in charge want it to.
At least I didn’t vote for Blair, my conscience is clear on that.

It is Ninfan, true. I don’t pretend to be an expert on UK/US trade data but I would be surprised if this was not (at least in part) due to the (largely unrecognised ) trend of falling trade barriers between the UK and the EU. I am also aware that the US has been arguing this point – ie it would prefer to deal with a regional trade deal than individual ones – for some time. Nothing that Obama said yesterday was new, other than perhaps the tone and his off script reference to the queue?

On the cost of membership – no its no. It is a clear and gross representation of the truth. Its actually shameful, almost on a par with the depths plumbed by the deceitful one last year.

Sbob, like you, I am cautious about enlargement (although broadly sympathetic to Turkey ex Erdogan) and very much anti the greater political (and fiscal) union that is required to make the € anything other than a grotesque folly. But again, I would suggest the blank sheet of paper…

Ok Dave massively oversold his achievements re negotiating with Europe – however, he secured the UKs position within Europe but outside the move to greater political union. Even Dave haters and agnostics (like me) should give him credit for that.

You are correct free trade does not come for free!! 😉

I was intrigued by your reference to the Pink Book Ninfan but couldn’t find reference to the EU contribution in it – it was a quick scan admittedly, so don’t deny it’s existence – but if you google ONS and UK cost of EUmembership you get a very nice summary that very clearly notes that

Specific exceptions apply to the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. For calculations covering the period 2007-2013, both the Netherlands and Sweden receive respective lump-sum annual reductions of EUR 605m and EUR 150m, financed proportionately by all other Member States. In the case of the UK, a rebate has been applied since 1984, known as the Fontainebleau Abatement. The size of the rebate varies from year to year and is based on the difference between the UK’s share of total uncapped EU VAT base resources and its share of total EU expenditure, multiplied by 66% of total EU expenditure allocated to Member States. This is then adjusted to account for the impacts of VAT capping, introduced in 1988, and an increase in the share of traditional own resource retained for administration purposes from 10% to 25%, effective since 2001. The cost of the UK rebate is borne by all other Member States.

Correct me if I am wrong but Thatcher’s rebate and the Fontainebleu Abatement are the same thing. And I would expect Bojo to understand its/their significance – it really was quite important. Nick Robinsons recent broadcast made it the main subject of the programme even!

From full facts

The claim that the UK’s membership fee is £55 million a day comes from the £20 billion annual UK payment to EU institutions listed in the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Pink Book. [your point]

The ONS told us this isn’t the correct figure to use [my point]. It has another set of figures which actually represent official government payments, although this isn’t clear from the release. [the caveat]

Sorry but I still believe that Brexit supporters are deliberately and knowingly trying to deceive here. It’s not hard to find the true figures really.

Ok Dave massively oversold his achievements re negotiating with Europe – however, he secured the UKs position within Europe but outside the move to greater political union. Even Dave haters and agnostics (like me) should give him credit for that.

What he says he has secured would involve EU directives being changed, and people in charge of changing them have already said they would oppose it.

The project is failing.
Reform will not happen if we vote to remain.

Leave.
Start again.

May I ask you to refer to specific issues that you raised. Are they addressed and confirmed in recent announcements or not?

If you’re disagreeing with what I have written, that’s fine.
If you’re asking me to disprove my own opinions then I am a little confused!

(Waits for it…)

Asking you to consider your earlier list with (from the horse’s mouth)

Recalling in particular that the United Kingdom has already been entitled under the Treaties:

–  not to adopt the euro and therefore to keep the British pound sterling as its currency (Protocol ?No 15),
–  no to participate in the Schengen acquis (Protocol No 19),
–  to keep exercising border controls on persons, and therefore not to participate in the Schengen ?area as regards internal and external borders (Protocol No 20),
–  to choose whether or not to participate in measures in the area of freedom, security and justice ?(Protocol No 21),
–  to cease to apply as from 1 December 2014 a large majority of EU acts and provisions in ?the field of police cooperation and judicial cooperation in criminal matters adopted before the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty while choosing to continue to participate in 35 of them (Article 10(4) and (5) of Protocol No 36), ?Recalling also that the Charter of Fundamental Rights has not extended the ability of the Court of Justice or any court or tribunal in the United Kingdom to rule on the consistency of the law and practice of the United Kingdom with the fundamental rights that it reaffirms (Protocol No 30),

Would you care to be more specific?
I haven’t really written a list.

If you think we will not merrily walk into greater political union then you are very much mistaken, our leaders want it.
Treaty by treaty it is already happening. This will not change.

Ok point 4 in your short list of points !!

Very happy to be mistaken – there is little or no political will for that either in Westminster or in the country – above all politicians are pragmatists who crave power. They would not misjudge public opinion so badly on that issue.

But, to labour a point, we really do not know what it is we are voting for. It’s IS true that there is strong conviction for greater political union among a number of core nations. And if they want to continue with the folly that is the €, then this had to happen by design. Hence note the specific references to our very different position as outlined in the statement quoted ^.

Anyway, that’s enough from me. Off for a run to make way for a nice dinner later. A European boeuf bourginon with French wine (0k plus some Chilean tempranillo to test my wino friends).

Don’t forget that we won’t be able to cook French food if we Brexit 😉

I will, I’ve used my heritage to procure Polish and Netherlands passports, just in case. 8)

The recent Obama speech telling us why we should remain talking about WWII together but he omits the massive debt the US strung us with to help the demise of our influeblnce globally.

This is a novel way to interpret the US giving the UK a huge amount of aid for free or at a 90% discount during the war, and then lending the UK a massive amount of cash at a mere 2% interest. The British empire didn’t collapse because the US helped the UK in WW2.