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  • 2019 General Election
  • Northwind
    Full Member

    dazh

    Subscriber

    Have I missed something? Got any hard evidence of this other than labour’s opponents saying it?

    It genuinely is very unlikely that Labour’ll win a majority. Gerrymandering/FPTP/maths is against them at this point, in fact it’s pretty unlikely that anybody’ll win a majority but even if the scores were tied Labour would still usually return less seats

    I posted this elsewhere but, just look at 2017. Labour 40% and 262 seats, Tories 42.4% and 317 seats. May very nearly netted a majority, despite having only 800000 more votes nationally.

    While we’re at it, look at the possible governments. The tories formed a government with their 13,646,000 votes and the DUP’s 292,000 votes- a total of 13.948,000 votes and 327 seats. Labour couldn’t have formed a government even with their 12,878,000 votes, and the Lib Dem’s 2,371,000 votes- a total of 15,249,000 votes but only 274 seats. Add the SNP? 16.2 million votes and still only 309 seats.

    So yeah, unless something amazing happens, Labour aren’t going to have a majority. At least, not in government. It’s entirely possible that they’ll have the most votes but not the most seats. It’s not entirely because our political system is screwed- but most of the other things that make it happen, are also dependent on that self same screwage.

    kerley
    Free Member

    IME a large chunk of tory voters are closet voters and don’t let on that’s who they vote for.

    I suppose at least they are self aware enough to know that selfish and lacking in empathy is not a good look.

    stevextc
    Free Member

    Where as really Brexit should have been done by now…

    Really? I think the whole idea should have been ditched by now.

    Well 3+ years and the electorate still don’t know what Brexit is.. or 17.4M people are exactly sure what it means despite there being 17.4M different views?

    kelvin
    Full Member

    And politicians are now claiming it’ll “be over by Xmas”, or within 6 months… it won’t be… it can’t be. And they wonder why trust is hitting all time lows. What will your average voter think when their employer is responding to the latest Brexit uncertainties… in 2021?

    kimbers
    Full Member

    As the Brexit negotiations drag on into the mid to late 2020s, It will still be the fault of the EU, civil servants or SNP or anyone & everyone except the conservatives & leaver voters.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    As for polls

    They are not that great at capturing absolute voting levels

    Pollsters improved methodologies after 2017 (and some were actually right- eg survation)

    Better at showing trends, last 2 polls showed labour narrowing the gap

    But they’d want to be a fair few points closer than they are now to avoid a Johnson majority

    mooman
    Free Member

    I accept the stick I got from my last post; I admit to being really lost and confused in this election.
    Of course I know the Torys cannot be believed or trusted – I also know the same is true for the LibDems, Labour, Greens, etc. And whilst this is practically accepted in todays politics, you can often choose who you want by promising the most and even when its been diluted to an inch of its life – there is still a little substance left of the initial promises.

    But in this election opposition parties are just promising an even longer time of uncertainty and further damage to the country, and of course the Torys are making their usual impossible promises about Brexit .. but nothing else of substance is being promised.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    But in this election opposition parties are just promising an even longer time of uncertainty

    They really aren’t

    Lib Dems revoke policy would see the Brexit negotiation hell killed off immediately

    Labours 2nd ref would see it either killed off by summer or of if leave a few years of negotiation (conceivably when transition ends in 2021) with minimal divergence & Norway deal by 2022

    Tories hard Brexit sees a year of transition, the inevitable extension /no deal cliff edge crapshoot in 2021 when his insanely complex maximum divergence deal is nowhere close to being agreed, 5-10 years before FTA is agreed.


    @mooman
    please read this thread about what Johnson’s Brexit inevitably leads to… https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1198877316899885056?s=19

    AD
    Full Member
    mattyfez
    Full Member

    AD..

    I read about that and it seems the person in question decided to remove the sign to avoid any potential formal action. He was sent on his way if he removed the slogan. Easy way out, I don’t particularly blame him for that.

    Unfortunate as I’m pretty sure it’s been tested in court that “bollocks to brexit” is acceptable.

    There was that guy in London who fought it, was it a banner over his café /hotel or something?

    And plenty of lib dems having that slogan on tshirts..

    Sounds like the driver in question simply bottled it when the police put a bit of pressure on him.

    taxi25
    Free Member

    And politicians are now claiming it’ll “be over by Xmas”, or within 6 months… it won’t be… it can’t be. 

    Brexit itself will take years whoever tries to implement it. These claims purely refer to getting the withdrawal agreement through parliment. I’m not sure why people don’t understand that ?

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    Brexit itself will take years whoever tries to implement it. These claims purely refer to getting the withdrawal agreement through parliment. I’m not sure why people don’t understand that ?

    Because of more tory lies, point in case the “get brexit done” slogan/sound byte.

    What they mean is, if they are being truthful, is “get brexit started”.

    mooman
    Free Member

    Kimbers – thanks for that; I am making my eyes sore from reading so much of all the main parties trying to decide.

    It must be added; I voted for Brexit – and still want Brexit done. But also recognise that this places me in a no win situation with the main parties.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    It most likely will be done, but with Johnson suggesting it’ll be ‘done’ in January, and Corbyn suggested he’ll get it ‘sorted’ inside 6 months… they are both hoping to get the votes of people who are unprepared for it to take years and years… and that is further going to erode trust in voters when the lies and deceits are laid bare.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    And politicians are now claiming it’ll “be over by Xmas”

    Ah yes, when all else fails reference the war.

    sobriety
    Free Member

    Would that be the one that specifically lasted far, far longer and was far far more unpleasant than anyone expected?

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Labour really should stand aside in Esher & Walton

    Full.thread is pretty bonkers

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Labour really should stand aside…

    Not going to happen anywhere, to help defeat any Conservative candidate. That isn’t the priority. And it’s too late now anyway.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    I’d back Corbyn to approach Brussels with a much better spirit of cooperation than Johnson.

    frankconway
    Free Member

    Chief Rabbi now weighing in regarding Labour anti-semitism; can’t see that helping Corbyn.
    Too many brexiters appear to believe that we’ll be completely out before end 2020; we may have a withdrawal agreement in place but then face possibly 10 years to negotiate and agree trade agreements.
    At best the WA, if it happens, will be the end of the beginning.
    I’m a committed retainer and hope (against hope) the GE result will provide the opportunity for a 2nd ref and cancellation of A50; in truth, I cannot see a path to that without dealing with the devil in the form of a 2nd indyref for Scotland.
    Cameron should be deeply apologetic for the chaos he unleashed – but he isn’t; should be shot (with shit). Arrogance of privilege – Johnson also.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    The Chief Rabbi really has hung Corbyn out to dry. I know a few Jewish lifelong Labour supporters who say they can’t vote for him.

    Given his long standing position on anti-racism etc, I’m astonished this has come out under his watch – or has it always been there and only now being exposed?

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Its neither

    Its a concerted effort which has worked to some extent to equate anti isreal sentiment with anti semetic.

    Yes there is some anti semitism in labour. Like there is amongst the population at large. However Corbyn is against the vile isreali apartheid government that routinely kills palestinians.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    The Chief Rabbi really has hung Corbyn out to dry. I know a few Jewish lifelong Labour supporters who say they can’t vote for him.

    I’m not convinced – the Jewish Labour vote is not that big to start with, and they don’t vote en masse following the orders of whatever apologist for Israel is on the bullhorn this week.

    robdixon
    Free Member

    “ Its a concerted effort which has worked to some extent to equate anti isreal sentiment with anti Semitic.”

    A more plausible explanation is that Labour has taken on many new members and activists who are anti-semites. They also have a healthy dose of candidates standing whose “heritage” communities are extremely prejudiced against Jews so they are deliberately playing to the gallery.

    hels
    Free Member

    History suggest that the roots of the anti-Semitism problem in Labour go way further back than 1948 – distaste for the more recent behaviour of the Israeli government on some issues is the convenient beard for something that goes back to the Bolsheviks, and mixes in with attitudes in what are delicately referred to above as “heritage communities”, a dog-whistle in itself.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Rob dixon – that is not plausible at all.

    Its as I siad. The isrealis and their apologists are aghast that there is a prospect of a government in the UK that will hold isreal to account for its vile actions. So hence the outcry of anti semitism. It has long been a part of the isreali political scene to decry any criticism of Isreal as anti semitic – although its based on the horror visited upon the palestinians not on a hatred of jews

    You can critise the isreali government and support the palestinians without being an anti semite.

    https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/mapstellstory.html

    Edit – I did not read the text on that site – looks a bit dodgy to say the least. the maps show the picture clearly tho.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    History suggest that the roots of the anti-Semitism problem in Labour go way further back than 1948

    Really?

    I must say I find it rather implausible that the views of people who must be long dead would have influenced party policy today. I mean, it’s not like a family where parents inculcate their kids – most people are adults before they join a political party.

    However it’s clear that the anti-Labour media are using this as a weapon. Forensically dragging over every bit of smalltalk and blurb Corbyn has ever uttered whilst apparently being ok with the fact that Johnson is a trashbag who spews every ‘ism’ going without a care in the world.

    rone
    Full Member

    Plenty of photos of the Chief Rabbi hanging with Johnson.

    Is this racism thing politically selective?

    And … how does this make Johnson fit for office?

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Because Johnson and the tories will not critise isreal

    CaptainFlashheart
    Free Member

    Massive conspiracy loon site, TJ.

    911, birthers, oh and a nice bit of Jewish banker conspiracy thrown in.

    Well done.

    A moment of research would have told you, but if it suits the narrative, eh?
    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/What_Really_Happened

    kerley
    Free Member

    I’m not convinced – the Jewish Labour vote is not that big to start with

    I am not convinced it makes any difference either. The Jewish vote is small combined with the fact that most people who are voting either don’t believe the party to be anti-semitic or are not bothered enough about it to change their vote. In same way tory voters are not bothered about the islamaphobia in the tory party (which conveniently gets brushed under the carpet much more than anti-semitism within the Labour party).

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Woeful position for labour to be in

    Hopefully they’ll be forced to make a change now & their new religious tolerance manifesto today will help.

    Can’t see any votes from the Jewish community coming back though.

    Meanwhile Ivan Rogers (who’s last well publicised speech predicted exactly what happened to Mays negotiations) has pointed out how Johnson has managed to box himself in, in exactly the same way for the more complex Future Relationship talks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/johnson-sowing-seeds-of-biggest-brexit-crisis-yet-warns-sir-ivan-rogers

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Sorry CFH. Lazy from me.

    The maps are real tho and that is what I was looking for.

    BillMC
    Full Member

    that goes back to the Bolsheviks

    Yep, Karl Marx, Leon Trotsky, Rosa Luxembourg, Ygael Gluckstein, Ernest Mandel, Harry Pollitt, John Berger, Ralph Miliband all terrible anti-semites

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    I must say I find it rather implausible that the views of people who must be long dead would have influenced party policy today.

    Are you new here? Aren’t all parties influenced by the views of people long dead? To start with the easy ones; DUP. For another there’s the Loyalist/Protestant/Rangers FC contingent in Scotland.

    nickc
    Full Member

    TJ please please stop with this. Please think about what you’re saying. You are using the global conspiracy/divided loyalties trope of “All Jews are controlled by Israel” to divert criticism of a British political party by British citizens.

    It’s not a right wing press issue, it’s a labour party issue that actually exists, that you a white man in Edinburgh who has no personal experience of it is, I think, part of the issue here, Labour activists I know personally have had pretty abhorrent abuse thrown at them by other labour members.  You can argue the toss about whether Corbyn has sat on his hands or not (I think the executive have handled the whole thing really badly), but by denying the issue, you’re party to letting it happen.

    kerley
    Free Member

    You can argue the toss about whether Corbyn has sat on his hands or not (I think the executive have handled the whole thing really badly), but by denying the issue, you’re party to letting it happen.

    Agree. A very good example of why Corbyn should not be leader. He democratically allowed all the complaints to go through the processes and people that are in place. That may be fine for some things but when you have an issue of racism which is not being handled very well or anywhere quickly enough you then take control of it personally, as the leader.

    nickc
    Full Member

    For those of you who don’t follow internal Labour local party politics (and why would you) look at the chart I’ve posted (of the religious voting in the 2017 election), and note that really large orange spike. That is the Muslim Labour vote. It’s hugely hugely important in the story of both Labour support in the Midlands and the North West, and Anti Semitism, and why the Labour executive struggle with this issue so much. The Labour strongholds in the East Midlands and in large parts of the North West are Muslim. Not helped by muslim, or voted by muslim, to all intents and purpose, the Labour party in many of these areas IS muslim. Nationally it’s massively important, there is absolutely no way that this vote can be lost…The Jewish vote on the other hand…ah, not so much…(voting is after all, a numbers game)

    Here’s the problem, there is unfortunately a teeny-tiny part of the Muslim vote that is anti Semitic, and the old guard of some of the Labour Party find common ground with them in the Palestinian struggle. I’ll point this out for the hard of thinking, but it bears repeating. That the Israeli Govt are arseholes about Palestine, is NOT the fault of British citizens who happen to be Jewish, OK TJ? Have you got that message now?

    binners
    Full Member

    I’m not convinced – the Jewish Labour vote is not that big to start with

    Really? Have you ever been to Prestwich? Its the heart of the Bury South constituency. A huge Jewish community. Its been nailed on labour for ages. They haven’t got a hope this time. And thats down to Corbyn.

    Frankly, Its irrelevant what you or i think. The overwhelming opinion within the Jewish community (and I know enough of them to know) is that Corbyn is antisemetic, or that he’s certainly tolerating antisemitism. I have Jewish friends who are life-long labour voters who are utterly scathing of Corbyn and his epic misjudgement (and thats giving him the benefit of the doubt) on this issue

    I personally don’t think he is, himself. But he is guilty of a total failure to get a grip of the antisemitism within the party through his usual role as spectator rather than leader (as per….). The way the whole thing has (or hasn’t) been handled has been absolutely shambolic, at best. He’s simply refused to take the issue seriously.

    The Jewish friends i know will vote Lib Dem this time which will just hand the seat to the Tory’s. So Bury South is one MP its definitely lost them already. Not really what they can afford to be doing is it? Chucking previously safe labour seats away? It just makes a Tory majority even more likely. And its entirely self-inflicted and unnecessary.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    To start with the easy ones; DUP. For another there’s the Loyalist/Protestant/Rangers FC contingent in Scotland.

    Tbf the DUP love a good bonfire & provocactive march to commemorate 300 year old sectarian battles

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/fury-as-dup-deputy-mayor-poses-for-photo-with-irish-flag-burning-38280120.html

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