Hello everyone. I’m not too keen on getting caught up in the Labour/Brexit argument, but I have a question so here goes:

I like the idea of “negotiate a softer brexit, confirm with another referendum”. I’m just concerned that 3 months of negotiation seems a bit tight, given the first WA took 2 years. Is there a good reason why 3 months could be realistic?

I’ve been waiting for Blair to do his bit to prevent a labour win. And he says he wants to stop brexit? He can’t help himself can he?

Instead of playing the man – why don’t you address what he has to say?

🙄

<Yes @stevious it would remove a lot of the problems on ni/eireland border, not to say that the DUP will be pleased, but they hate Johnson’s deal too.

Labours position is moving closer to a Norway deal (see FOM vote at conference)

It’s Johnson’s desire to de-align that makes his deal far more lengthy to negotiate than Labours close alignment model

Thanks @kimbers.

Got to love a bit of Blair bashing. I never voted for him… and love how easy he is to attack from all angles… it almost makes me sympathetic towards him…

• neo-Liberal idealist apparently, but increased public sector spending and introduced regulations like the minimum wage

• sought to bring LibDems into government, but then became enemy #1 for them

• warmonger who introduced landmine ban

Everyone can hate him. I find him making some valid points these days though… points we really shouldn’t be having to hear come from outside our current leading politicians.

Anyway, stop Johnson getting his majority. If you’re in a Tory/Labour marginal, please vote Labour, whatever you think of Blair, Corbyn or even Miliband. Focus on denying Johnson his majority. Please. There is no chance of a Labour majority at this election… so you are voting for a Johnson majority, or to deny him that power.

Check previous page Dazh.

Got any hard evidence of this other than labour’s opponents saying it?

I didn’t see anyone presenting this as anything more than a prediction, so it can rest alongside all the others and be judged at the earliest point we will have concrete evidence, ie shortly after the polls close.

As someone who has lived through a few electoral cycles, I’d tend to agree though. I’d be absolutely ecstatic if the polls were wrong enough to deliver a hung parliament, but I see even this as less likely than a Tory majority at this point.

There’s bugger all you or I can do about that.

Well, personally, I’m trying to reassure as many people as possible, locally, that they can and should vote Labour. You can do bugger all if you want to.

It is possible that the political situation has changed to the point where the polling models are inaccurate enough to get it quite wrong. But then again if we know this, they probably do too.

The polls report a swing, the electoral calculus reports likely seats, but do they just apply that swing to the whole country? I’ve seen efforts to estimate swing by region but there were only something Wales, Scotland, North England, South England, NI – very broad brushes. I’d imagine that rural North, Urban North, Rural South, London etc would be more appropriate. I just don’t know what to expect tbh.

It is possible that the political situation has changed to the point where the polling models are inaccurate enough to get it quite wrong.

It’s widely accepted that’s the case by every commentator I’ve heard. The issue of Brexit makes it’s near impossible to work out which seats will go to which parties.

I’d be interested in reading an explantion of why this election *is* predictable from someone credible who knows about polling. I doubt it exists.

I’m not really talking about that though, I’m saying that it’s not worth getting despondent at something you have very little control over. At some point we may have to accept that we’re simply in the minority. I don’t like that any more than you but it’s not something to get angry or worried about.

Besides, there’s tons of stuff I don’t really agree with to do with labour so the last thing I’m gonna do is join up and start toeing the party line. If I was going to get back into political activism it would be for something far more radical than nationalising the rail system or whatever other mild centrist policies they have.

That’s a fair comment but (and nothing personal) but just because your views put this as “mild centrist” that is based on your views not the views of a majority.

It may well be that we boot out capitalism and free markets and all is wonderful but that doesn’t meet most of the electorates expectations or their CURRENT view of centrist and jumping from where we are NOW to what you class as “centrist” is a huge change that can’t be taken in one democratic step.

I was truly appalled to read a local FB post the other day in reply to me saying to someone “go and vote for the least bad” because “Outraged of Woking” seemed like a genuine caring person. She talked about an elderly (93yr old) lady who had paid tax and NI her whole life… how no MP’s cared… and given our incumbent is a NRG supporting Tory I’d have put her firmly in Labour… right until she was outraged that there is no BXP candidate to vote for.

I have no clue how she thinks Farage selling off the NHS will benefit this 93yr old and I honestly believe she believes what she’s saying…

She should be voting Labour or at least tactically which might mean LibDem here… but somehow she swallowed the Farage lines and somehow managed to ignore the selling off of the NHS.

I’d be interested in reading an explantion of why this election *is* predictable from someone credible who knows about polling.

Well, pollsters have been asked to have a go, and paid for it – and it’s their whole business so you can’t really blame them. I don’t think they have confidence in their own product currently!

Has anyone actually been asked for any of these polls? I’ve never ever been asked.

Come to think of it no election crap through my door….. as of yet.

Only had a Lib Dem flyer here in our safe Tory seat.

https://democraticdashboard.com/constituency/gordon

Tory MP ashamed to say he only won by 2500 votes.

If polls are correct, good that the gap narrowing.
As for Johnson, he has clearly listened to his handlers and eliminated most of the free-styling he has relied on previously.
He’s staying on-message and trotting out the agreed lines…..get brexit done, unlock our deadlocked parliament, unleash potential, more police, more nurses, new hospitals – with little, if any, details or costings. Don’t talk about tory policies; turn every answer into criticism of labour.
Will be interesting to see how Corbyn and Johnson fare when subjected to Andrew Neil’s forensic interrogations.