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  • 2019 General Election
  • dazh
    Full Member

    And we’re, back. It’s not about brexit. Not at all. Here’s Labour’s candidate in Stoke…

    “It’s a lovely and toxic combination of the fact that the message in Stoke-on-Trent that’s been heard by the voters is that the Labour party tried to stop Brexit. It would be remiss of me not to mention that Jeremy Corbyn has come up on the doorsteps. Some people really like him. Some people really dislike him, and that has been a turnoff.

    But John [McDonnell] is right to say that it’s Brexit. The Labour party had a choice when Theresa May presented her deal. We could either have stopped the Tories or we could have stopped Brexit. And unfortunately some of the siren voices in the shadow cabinet who have big Liberal Democrat votes in their London seats decided that stopping Brexit, and therefore lining themselves up for future leadership bids, was much more important than respecting the votes in marginal constituencies in the midlands and in the north west and the north east. And they’ve sacrificed us for whatever political ambitions they want to do next.”

    And Ian Lavery’s seat at risk, another labour MP who was loudly warning about the brexit problem. Are we still carrying on with this fantasy that brexit isn’t the main problem?

    ctk
    Full Member

    Brexit was the problem & Corbyn needs to go

    mefty
    Free Member

    Redcar – Tory gain apparently, Tories could outperform the exit poll if that is true.

    EDIT: ITV story, based on Labour source so treat with caution.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    That’ll be amplified by the Brexit sentiment. In remain areas it’ll be much less of a swing.

    dazh
    Full Member

    Corbyn needs to go

    I don’t think there’s any doubt that will happen. They’ll be scrambling to stop Starmer and Thornberry taking over though, not to mention the usual Blairite suspects. The next leader will be a leaver, hence why Rayner declared herself as one the other night. The metropolitan remainers are finished. We live in a brexit country now, whether we like it or not.

    raybanwomble
    Free Member

    ctk +1

    The way I read the situation is that Brexit was the issue – it’s just Labour when given the choice of losing hard vs losing, they chose to lose hard by dithering.

    The next leader will be a leaver, hence why Rayner declared herself as one the other night. The metropolitan remainers are finished. We live in a brexit country now, whether we like it or not.

    They won’t be able to galvanise support behind them then, the remainers will stay either lib dem or conservative – at least for then next decade until this debacle is forgotten.

    It will be like the lib dems and tuition fees.

    The answer is not to double down on anti metropolitan labourism – London counts for a bloody huge swathe of Labour support and you’ve already lost your brexity Labour voters. They’ll vote conservative for the next decade.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    It’s completely obvious from the few seats in at the moment that Brexit is indeed the issue (purely from the number of Brexit party votes). If only Labour had accepted that.

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    Burning question of the night – was it a good poo or are results still coming in?

    deadlydarcy
    Free Member

    Workington gone. Jesus.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    Workington. FFS.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Workington – easy win

    molgrips
    Free Member

    If only Labour had accepted that.

    Then how many seats would they have lost to LDs? We’ll never know. As I’ve been saying for ages – Labour were cornered by Brexit.

    ctk
    Full Member

    Turnout -12.6% so far

    dazh
    Full Member

    Ian Lavery held on. Small mercies. He’s going to be a big voice in the future direction. If he gets his way it won’t be in the direction of Starmer or Thornberry. Brexit has truly broken the labour party. The policies were popular, apart from one.

    ctk
    Full Member

    I think they need to argue for a close relationship with Europe.

    Thornberry would never win an election for labour.

    raybanwomble
    Free Member

    Turnout -12.6% so far

    Bet most of those are remainers.

    Cougar
    Full Member

    Con gain Darlington
    Lab gain Jarrow
    Are either of those significant? I have no idea.

    tomhoward
    Full Member

    What an utter **** Aaron Banks is. I really struggle to express how much I despise him.

    (just been interviewed on BBC, not just a random statement)

    ctk
    Full Member

    Good chance that Zac Goldsmith might lose his seat

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    Turnout in Jo Swinsons seat is apparently over 80%. I wonder if that will save her.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Jarrow is a hold not a gain – no Labour gains yet – best chance of those is in London, everywhere else looks pretty bleak.

    dazh
    Full Member

    I wonder if that will save her

    Lets hope not. It’ll be one of the few silver linings. I’m still not resigning myself to this till the metropolitan seats start coming in. The north east was always going to be a massive problem for labour, and the city seats won’t compensate for the losses, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens in remain areas.

    Cougar
    Full Member

    Jarrow is a hold not a gain – no Labour gains yet

    I think you might be right. Looks like the Guardian’s tracker is wrong then:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/12/uk-general-election-2019-full-results-live-labour-conservatives-tories

    (No reason for picking that as a source other than it appearing after Google’s own and seemed to update quickly, open to better suggestions)

    ctk
    Full Member

    Yep need to see some remain seats. 10% swing Lab to Con in every Leave seat

    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    Good chance that Zac Goldsmith might lose his seat

    Yep. He was lucky to win in 2017.

    I can’t sleep.

    Turnout in Jo Swinsons seat is apparently over 80%. I wonder if that will save her.

    Meant to be close. Should know in an hour…

    dazh
    Full Member

    Wrexham gone to tories, remain vote splintered. Nowt to do with brexit obviously.

    Putney gone to labour. Interesting.

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    The Eigg box arrived safely.

    raybanwomble
    Free Member

    Labour have just taken Putney.

    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    That a definite? Putney was Greening’s seat, wasn’t it?

    dazh
    Full Member

    Labour just held Putney.

    It was a gain. First of the night. Justine Greening’s seat.

    raybanwomble
    Free Member

    Yeah, edited!

    deadlydarcy
    Free Member

    To be honest, I was expecting Labour to grab Putney. Heavily remain area. I don’t think the Tories will be too disappointed with that one.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    PC hold Arfon with an increased majority, 4% swing. Remainer MP.

    The new Tory MP for Wrexham apparently had been a nurse and social worker. And a Tory??!

    cromolyolly
    Free Member

    conservatives can be convinced to vote labour if the leader doesn’t have raving communist lunatics as advisors. History shows that they can be convinced.

    The polls said different. We are in a different time. Polarisation is in, compromise is for girlie swots.

    I agree that in the past centrist voters could be pulled by centrist policies but that is a vanishingly small constituency in today’s post-trump, post-truth world.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Good chance that Zac Goldsmith might lose his seat

    Always likely, he would be swimming against the tide to survive.

    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    The new Tory MP for Wrexham apparently had been a nurse and social worker. And a Tory??!

    Dorries was a nurse.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Tories win Tony Blair’s old seat.

    raybanwomble
    Free Member

    The polls said different. We are in a different time. Polarisation is in, compromise is for girlie swots.

    Polarisation is a blackhole, if you want Labour to get in you have to counter the flight to the extremes because the right will always win that game in the UK. Throughout history these political standoffs are a coin flip, a crap shoot, Russian roulette etc etc.

    It is how democracies end.

    ctk
    Full Member

    Bollocks Cairns got back in in my constituency. Slimey toad

    cromolyolly
    Free Member

    The way I read the situation is that Brexit was the issue

    You’ve abandoned the dark side and moved into the light! Oh course it was in a lot of regions. The labour losses have coincided exactly with the cons and brexit gains. In the early reports from the red wall areas the brexit party are taking a bigger chunk of labour’s losses than the Tories.

    However, early projections from Swindon? Showed labour down 5% in a remain area. So there it seems that Corbyn probably is the problem. It is half the swing of leave areas though.

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