Nice generalisation. You haven’t got a clue what I do but you carry on thinking

I do have a clue actually cos I read the research. There is a lot of it and most of it says the same thing – there are a set of common behaviours and they quite literally aren’t like the rest I us.

If you listen to many older people from northern colliery towns, you’d have thought that the past in these places was some sort of industrial utopia that the Tories destroyed in the 80s

I did listen to them, I had no choice, since they lived in the same house and no, they didn’t think it was a Utopia. They did think it was a community in which the people could be proud that they went to work, worked hard, got paid, supported the businesses in their community. Had a sense of purpose, self respect.

When Thatcher closed the pits, including the profitable ones, she did it in a way that caused maximum damage to those people and communities. Parlty because she was pissed at the Unions for ‘winning’ the last time around. They did precisely nothing to help those people and communities cushion the blow.

Behaviour which you continue to see today.

d. Yet in spite of that desperate level of underfunding Labour decided on a wafer thin increase of 3bn.

So do you actually believe that the Tories, who have been slowly strangling the NHS to death, are suddenly going to find all sorts of money for it? Which party, based on its history, is more likely to try and find it properly?

People have spent the last three decades saying the Tory’s are going to privatize the NHS during every election campaign (and at times in between). All that crying wolf means

How is it crying wolf when they have actually been doing it, piece by piece?

So all the other times you said they were going to privatise the NHS they didn’t.

Except for the bits they did. It takes time to sell off a thing as big as the NHS, well the profitable bits at least, in a way the voters don’t notice. Judging by you, they’ve been doing a good job.

Hmm. Bit of pot, kettle, black going on there, pal.

Nothing of the sort. I was referring to actual people that think in a certain way – I did not say all people think that way, i.e. I did not generalise, I was very specific.

What is the REAL Tory poll lead?

In my thread "are ALL the polls wrong?" I identified sources of error that inflated the Con lead.

In this thread, I go further.

I have re-modelled/weighted the data to try to correct these errors.

The real Con lead? Read on to find out.

1/17

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) December 8, 2019

So thanks in advance to the common room for the hard Brexit we’ve got coming and whatever the Tory’s decide to do with that for the next five years

Whereas you’ve done, what exactly besides sitting on the sidelines making pathetic noises? You’ve had 4 years since Corbyn became leader and done **** all with it so if anyone is to blame its people like you. Don’t point the finger at the people who actually got off their arse and did something, where are your mates in the mighty Tinge party now? Oh that’s right, didn’t work, gave up and **** off. Too hard. I mean, Farage is a total **** but at least he’s a tenacious ****, those planks had about as much commitment as a teenager that realised they looked really silly after their little flounce. Hence they **** off and shut up when they realised nobody was following them and the didn’t really have anything new to say.

Get over the colour of the rosette and look for another party, there must be someone out there espousing blairite Liberal policies whilst being upstanding Democrats? Someone surely…

People have spent the last three decades saying the Tory’s are going to privatize the NHS during every election campaign (and at times in between). All that crying wolf means

The thing everyone forgets about The Boy Who Cried Wolf is that the sheep got eaten by the wolf.

Weird how all these old boomer **** vote for the party who are going to **** the NHS – yet they’re the **** who need it the most – they’re always in the hospital! I’m a millennial, eating salads, not smoking and exercising my ass off. I never go to the docs!

Every day I walk down the street and am shocked at how, in a first world country, every second person in my goddamn way has some kind of mobility issue. Move it bitch, I’m on the way to the squat rack!

@kimbers

Did you see this bit too?

Thanks for that. Interesting to note that your conclusion is closely in line with the PM and pendulum model which predicts a 2.4 gap between Can and Lab in this election. Their model has been quite accurate since 2005. https://t.co/TkABzwPnSg

— GraemL (@GrahamLeah1) December 8, 2019

Follow the link inside.

Just been in my local and met a local candidate(hot constituency ;-)), who alleged boris is on track to get 40 seat majority.:-(
It was quite hilarious to witness my friend Shahin , tell her he respected her enormously but he would not vote for her. Had I filmed it, it would have gone viral.

Whereas you’ve done, what exactly besides sitting on the sidelines making pathetic noises?

I’ll wager he’s done more to get the vote in for Labour than you have, despite being told again and again that he should abandon Labour because he critiques the path and personalities that currently have a hold on the top of the party.

He’s not Hitler, he’s just a very naughty boy. 🙂

I’ve attended local Labour party AND Momentum meetings.
They are not full of Stalinist sixth formers or Hatton worshiping hypocrites.
They are attended by people who are genuinely suffering and lots of younger people who want to put a stop to these evil Tory bastards.
No champagne Socialists.
No ulterior motives.
No one wants to lynch Binners for being a bit wet.
Everyone is absolutely desperate, because people are suffering and dying due the selfish bastards who are some of the most prolific posters on this forum.
People who I try to think the best of, people who I’m trying to remain civil with.

Yep, Corbyn can be a completely obtuse old Hector and some of his fellow travellers are poisonous tossers.

So **** what?

I don’t like the blue coconut abominations in Quality Street, but I don’t bleat about it on social media every five minutes and I’ll still be buying a tin.

And I’ll still vote Labour, because I believe in the intrinsic decency of people.

molgrips

Subscriber

Every prime minister from WW1 onwards closed mines, by the time Thatcher took over the days of coal were already well in the past.

It wasn’t the fact she closed mines – after all, there’s only so much coal – it was the way that she did it. The miners weren’t stupid, they understood their own business. She pulled the plug on all the mines, viable or otherwise, and made zero effort to instigate a managed shift in industry to give people something else to move on to. The Tower colliery is an example. Closed, then bought out by the workers and continued working for another 30 years. It closed recently because now it finally is out of coal.

She did this she was a Tory and Tories do not give a shit – this is their basic underlying principle. The whole ethos of the Tories is small government, which means letting the markets take care of everything. So yes, in theory, given a large labour force with no jobs they will either move elsewhere or some other company will move in to employ them. This is fine if you treat people as resources, but they aren’t, they are people, and if you just let the market deal with everything they will get totally **** over and their quality of life will suffer. It’s up to you whether or not you think it matters if people are suffering when you could help them.

Molgrips is a decent man and every single word of this is true.

Thatcher’s legacy was the disenfranchisement of the working class, the deliberate destruction of communities and the deliberate creation of an ‘underclass’.

Destroy people’s hope, remove their opportunity for self improvement and then get everyone to blame them for the resulting mess.

Create the cult of the individual, destroy the idea of society and remove the shame associated with venality and greed.

Brexit was our take on the LA riots.
When nothing else is left, when you take away the things that make us human, people need very little encouragement to burn down their own houses.

So this
– there are a set of common behaviours and they quite literally aren’t like the rest I us
Is a generalisation (despite it being based on actual research) but this(which is your opinion)
– There are a lot of people who think like that
Isn’t?
That is some Johnsonian levels of hair splitting. Bravo!

The bit you have missed is that where I say a lot of people think like that it is in the context of the people I speak to and a lot of them thinking like that. So no, it is not a generalisation
You seem to have Johnson levels of understanding. Bravo!

This week please vote tactically to get rid of these vile people who are utterly devoid of even the slightest shred of empathy or compassion. Surely, as a country, we’re better than that?

Who are you talking to, people on this thread are well away of what they should do.

The country is full of people who don’t have the ability to work out what is best for them or the country and are being fooled again, this time by the ‘characterful and funny’ prime minister.

One way of countering that is to use the same tactics over the next 5 years ready for the next election. Should be easier because Brexit will be nearing conclusion by then and the fallout can be 100% owned by the Tories, but the first step is to choose a charismatic leader that the majority of people will fall for. Better find that person and get them into a safe Labour seat now.

Latest survation poll is not pretty

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 45% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDM: 11% (=)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

Via @Survation, 5-7 Dec.
Changes w/ 26-30 Nov.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) December 9, 2019

I do wonder if the hard lefties who’ve spent the last couple of years using the word ‘centrist’ as an insult will realise that they needed those centrist votes in the end

& I think its not really the “centrists” who’ve gone to Bojo, its the Shbrexit at all costs brigade.

Who knows, maybe the shy-Tory effect has become a shy-Labour effect, polling errors, youth vote….

I’ve not completely given up hope. I’m also not staying up to watch the results come in.

All he’s been hearing on the doorstep is how awful Jeremy Corbyn is.

Again, which is why the leader is almost more important than anything else. Do those people like the tory polices, do they dislike the Labour policies or is all they care about is that they don’t like Corbyn. If so that is pretty shallow but that is how it is.

I do wonder if the hard lefties who’ve spent the last couple of years using the word ‘centrist’ as an insult will realise that they needed those centrist votes in the end

+1.

You don’t have to look very far on this thread to find anyone remotely centric being insulted by both sides – not directly of course.

Polls can be wrong, often are. …and even if the polls are right we still have no idea which way all the the constituencies are going.

An (apparent) 15pc lead is going to cost Boris votes as people who are voting Tory to keep Corbyn/Momentum out might decide it’s in the bag and won’t bother voting or will go Libdem.

This election is impossible call and has been from he beginning.