Well I look forward to enjoying fantasy land with the the likes of Ed Milliband, Harriet Harman etc. In this land of make believe and spin we can discuss exactly why the marginal vote is important (and evidenced by the Labour spin machine joining the Tory one now to discredit UKIP.) The analysis of UKIP support is clear and even in fantasy land the point remains. At low levels of overall share, UKIP takes votes predominately from the Tories plus a block vote from Lib Dems (presumably the trad protest vote). But the voting analysis shows that as the overall vote rises, the gains from labour voters increase. As I assume we all agree, this starts low, but then accelerates apparently at the key trigger point of 15%. For that reason, my point at the top of the page stands - labour HQ are taking more notice of this week's results than others suggest, even if that means them joining me in "fantasy land"!!!
But when all is said and done, this will all be largely an irrelevance. The next election will be a 2 party shoot out with Labour the most likely winners. But to get there, the main parties will have to address the rise of populist parties. This is the story across Europe with populist parties coming from either end of the policitical spectrum, united only in a common bogeyman.
You mean someone actually smoked a fag in public, in front of the cameras as well! What is the world coming to.
You mean someone actually smoked a fag in public, in front of the cameras as well! What is the world coming to.
You're right, I should be proud as a smoker myself 🙄
EDIT: Bugger, 3rd post on a political thread!
maybe they'll listen what people really want locally rather than the local dictatorships that go on in some councils (yes it's a dream). You can waste your vote round here Councillors have been from the same party for years. Fascism comes in many forms from left and right. I'm enjoying the UKIP surge, it's made the boring politicians on both sides of the retarded left and right debate sit up and look around.
Don't worry those of you who are left or right and helping stultifying the politics of the UK. Farage and his happy band will hang themselves and it will be back the boring, stupid idiots who lead each party that is our normal system. No wonder people are bored with Westminster politics.
the beer that goes with the above view is Bainbridge Blonde from the Dales. Rather nice, another? Don't mind if I do.
I see the problem as (and it's not very PC) the ignorance of many voters, who have an idea (immigration is a bad thing) and don't listen to the facts and therefore go on believing that either Poles are here living on benefits or pinching all of 'our' jobs.
Well to be fair, I might have thought there were a load of Poles here living on benefits if I'd just paid attention to the popular media. I suspect it's actually discussions on STW where I've got the real facts about the situation. It's kind of hard to blame most voters for not knowing the true facts given the propaganda they're fed
I'm annoyed at myself that I'm posting on a political thread again
Well it's not quite the usual political thread - JY, ernie THM and I are broadly in agreement (hence why I'm posting - I'd stopped posting on the sort of political threads where I might get into an argument).
Think these threads tend to be politer tbh with less goading and it is interesting when folk find common ground.
Re UKIP I think labour will loose some voters to them but given the change in tone from CMD * and the announcement today that the referendiim will be out before the elction it is not Labour that need to be scared in general.
It is obvious that UKIP is a right wing party and to the right of the Tories so they will bnever have broad appeal with Labour folk beyond a protest which they wont do whenit really counts
* which has been nothing short of a Clegg like capitualtion
PS
This is the story across Europe with populist parties coming from either end of the policitical spectrum, united only in a common bogeyman.
Interesting no one is blaming capitalism in the UK and are blaming the EU and immigrants and voting for a party that is more of the same capitalism that caused it all - in fact it is even more of the same than nay other party.
Not really apolitical point more one about the human condition like we have a hair trigger in blaming folk for problems rather than looking at the true causes - ignoringmy hair trigger for hating capitlalsism no one can actually think the EU or immigration has caused the current crises or economic slump
teamhurtmore - Memberlabour HQ are taking more notice of this week's results than others suggest
Yes I'm sure that the Labour Party is absolutely devastated that the Labour vote held up in a crucial by-election last thursday, and that they got more than twice as many votes as UKIP ....... what a "bloody nose", as you like to call it.
And the Tories must be relieved that their vote merely collapsed.
Whilst the LibDems, who according to you don't even appear to have received a bloody nose, must be over the moon that their vote was pretty much obliterated, and that they came 7th - with less than half the votes of the BNP.
All in teamhurtmore's political fantasy world.
the announcement today that the referendiim will be out before the elction
Er, you mean one cabinet member has suggested they should publish a draft bill before the election (but has admitted it would be impossible to get it passed due to Lib Dem opposition)? I was wondering for a minute if I'd missed a momentous policy announcement on a BH weekend.
ah sorry heard it briefly on radio 4 whilst kids were being noisy....did not hear all the details clearly
I stand corrected 😳
I was right about CMD brown nosing though 😉
Well I don't watch much TV news, but I long-ago realised the following. People interviewed on the street, particularly in the evening local news, tend to be a mixture of old folk, unemployed and a pork pie short of a picnic.
I can say that because I tick all the boxes. I suggest you don't presume too much.
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scotroutes - MemberThe two and a bit parties are NOT converging on the centre ground - and this "protest vote" is going to see them all taking a step to the right.
Aye- some fanny was on the news last night saying that the UKIP rise is as a result of the tories lurching to the left. I punched the TV so hard he got a black eye.
just repeated it on Radio 4 apparently it was the Tory chair Grant Shapps saying they would publish it all before the election so they are certainly making sure they pander to the right/UKIP voters
I assume they will argue only the Tories can deliver the refereduum on EU and voting UKIP is wasted vote.
The vote will be after the election - I never claimed before but I can see [ re reading] that it looks like I did
The sound of Harriet Harmann in celebration mode:
Deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman told the programme Ukip's rise was a "wake-up call" for the establishment parties, but some of its politics were "quite threatening". She said: "We should listen very seriously if people are feeling disaffected and disenchanted. It is a challenge to us. It's a wake-up call for us to actually listen to people who feel that times are hard and wonder whether any of us have actually got the answers." But she added: "I don't take the easy assumption '[i]Oh well, it's great because it's going to take votes off the Conservatives'. I think some of their politics is quite threatening and we shouldn't be complacent either." [/i]
Seems like she will be a barrel of laughs when she joins me in fantasy politics land!
I am not reading that the same way as you
I read it as we need to react to stop the rise of the "quite threatening" "fasicsm light" of UKIP rather than labour itself is under threat and loosing votes to them like the Tories clearly are.
It can be read either way but can you find anything to show that Lab are loosing masses of votes to them or a lab politicina saying this?
Not conclusive IMHO
How does that quote from Harriet Harmann back up your absurd and quite ridiculous claim that Labour got a bloody nose from UKIP last Thursday teamhurtmore ?
Everything in that quote sounds like perfect commonsense to me.
Of course no one should be complacent about UKIP, and I have already very clearly said on the previous page to this one :[b] [i]"UKIP might well make significant inroads into working-class Labour heartlands in the future, and more importantly win seats"[/i][/b] I then added [b][i]"but last Thursday didn't prove that, and to suggest that it did is clearly false"[/i][/b]
Labour successfully beat off any potential threat from UKIP last thursday, the Tories, and even more so the LibDems, did not.
Your attempt to suggest otherwise is pure Tory spin.
Fascism? 😆 That's authoritarian large state dictatorship. Ukip is standing for small government anti-authoritarianism and democratic rule. Kind of the opposite of fascism.
You right they are libertarian nationalist rather than authoritarian ones hence the light tag 😉
Do you need "" explaining to you ?
Really ?
JY - happy to leave it there really. Of course there has not been a [u]major hit[/u] to Labour's vote. As I said much earlier, in terms of hit I would suggest that it went LD, Tories with Labour very much behind. My slightly inappropriate choice of "bloody nose" refers to analysis that Jeremy Vine did on Newsnight that showed how all parties had lost ground and I was referring to that. The additional point about Labour (confirmed by Harmann) is that UKIP has crossed the threshold where they are now [u]also[/u] a threat to Labour, IF, this week's elections have any bearing on general election voting patterns (apparently if the analysts are correct the 15% threshold).
My choice of words was poor as EL will keep reminding me. But the basic point still stands that [u]all parties [/u]got a wake up call if not an injury 😉 - that is what I read from Milliband and Harmann. And I credit them with enough political nouse to observe what is going on across the rest of Europe. Parties that chose to be complacent about populist opposition really have got bloody noses elsewhere!
CMD probably only has three possible jokers that could save him - the slightly surprising performance of the private sector may keep surprising on the upside (possible), he could pull the referendum card in some form (assuming the € hasn't gone by then 😉 - probable) and the Eurozone could recover producing a recovery in exports (hmmmm.....). But given that (rather than a failure of capitalism) we have a crisis essentially resulting from excessive levels of public and private sector (yes both!) debt, then CMD's outlook looks almost as grim as the unskilled workers who are/may be deserting his party - they winding down of leverage will see his term out. The only silly thing is the idea that UKIP (or Boris Johnson!) have the solution.
UKIP are in no way libertarian either, they're made up of classic fascists not libertarians. One of them the other week wanted votes to be taken off the unemployed and biased weighting given to those who earn a lot of money.
Reasonable summary THM ( B + ) but CMD will have to play the want a referenduum [ subtext to leave] then voting for us is the only way to go to ensure it hapens [ which will be true tbh] and also creates clear blue water between them and Lab/ Libs if not UKIP. He probably has no choice tbh but to do this. .
But given that (rather than a failure of capitalism) we have a crisis essentially resulting from excessive levels of public and private sector (yes both!) debt
Lets hope this time someone really have ended boom and bust eh
Fascism? That's authoritarian large state dictatorship. Ukip is standing for small government anti-authoritarianism and democratic rule. Kind of the opposite of fascism.
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http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2574/ukip_is_not_the_home_for_true_libertarians
http://unholytrinityblog.com/2013/01/ukip-are-not-a-libertarian-party/
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/04/alexandra-swann-unemployed-voting/
JY wrote
Interesting no one is blaming capitalism in the UK and are blaming the EU and immigrants and voting for a party that is more of the same capitalism that caused it all - in fact it is even more of the same than nay other party.
Not really apolitical point more one about the human condition like we have a hair trigger in blaming folk for problems rather than looking at the true causes - ignoringmy hair trigger for hating capitlalsism no one can actually think the EU or immigration has caused the current crises or economic slump
shows how far 'political' discourse needs to travel in this insular little island-- huge global capitalist crisis, yet none of the westminster apologists want to even mention the fact.Since they spend all their time pandering to an exploitative system, that provides them with their 'careers' and looks after them when they take a back seat,not seen many brave/foolish enough to bite the hand that feeds them.
The manic obsession with 'growth' -or profit --in a world of decreasing resources, a mad scramble to shut the door on others whose needs are greater-- the selfish pandering to the already disgustingly wealthy, from an objective martian view, the world and its economic wastefulness must look a funny place....
I'm for revolutionary socialism......
Meh if UKIP start going proper anti-capitalist/liberal then we truly will have fascist party on our hands.
The manic obsession with 'growth' -or profit --in a world of decreasing resources, a mad scramble to shut the door on others whose needs are greater-- the selfish pandering to the already disgustingly wealthy
Oooh look a malthusian, you talk about rapidly decreasing resources as if it's a cut and dry settled issue and that we're not going to be able to R&D our way out of those problems.
**** me, we're so doomed, I mean fusion is never going to happen like ever, graphene didn't happen, GMO's aren't happening, solar panels are not going to increase in efficiency, space mining is never going to take off, global warming is going to destroy us all as opposed to being a boon to the global economy by making the far north more prosperous.
...on the radio this evening, the Tories are talking about a pact with UKIP to ensure electoral success.
Welcome to the future...
And with that I'll move to Norway.
Oooh look a malthusian, you talk about rapidly decreasing resources as if we're not able to R&D our way out of those problems.
who said 'rapid'--you, just making the point that an exploitative system will not consider consequences for others, but carry on with your intepretation, it has amused me..
And with that I'll move to Norway.
i know your'e being flipant, but that is the answer you would expect off a rich twunt.
just as the french aristocrats fled to england when things got a bit hot for them at home.You may find that even norway will be affected-- since they import most of their food....
interfereswithbadgers - Memberyou talk about rapidly decreasing resources as if it's a cut and dry settled issue and that we're not going to be able to R&D our way out of those problems.
Maybe we can. It'd be mental to assume we will, though, surely? It's like being a futures trader in a product that might never exist. Develop fix, act once we have it.
who said 'rapid'--you, just making the point that an exploitative system will not consider consequences for others, but carry on with your intepretation, it has amused me..
We can end scarcity and suffering for the human race through the use of technology.
No need to get rid of growth and capitalism, we just need socially and environmentally friendly regulated capitalism that is driven in a top down fashion in the same way that F1 drives technology through regulation.
Maybe we can. It'd be mental to assume we will, though, surely?
I've always had a do or die attitude, do we want to set our goals high and attempt to smash our natural limits or do we want to settle for a society that will always be unfair and full of suffering even with socialism.
In some ways I'm optimistic about humanity, I don't think we should be settling for anything less than our wildest dreams about where we can take ourselves and move forward in this universe.
interfereswithbadgers - MemberIn some ways I'm optimistic about humanity, I don't think we should be settling for anything less than our wildest dreams about where we can take ourselves and move forward in this universe.
So jeaopardising that in the short term seems pretty silly. I have great faith in what we'll be able to do in a hundred or a thousand years. Not so sure about what we can do tomorrow.
i know your'e being flipant, but that is the answer you would expect off a rich twunt.
Nahhh I could be employed there but I'm poor, I'm pretty much going to be able to choose where I want to live over the next few years so I could care less for nationalism.
just as the french aristocrats fled to england when things got a bit hot for them at home.You may find that even norway will be affected-- since they import most of their food....
They wont have to when all the Tundra melts. 
why this infatuated love affair with exploitation-- i know some kinky people like being dominated, but surely not all the time ,for ever and ever-- capitalism is a restrictive, wasteful , inefficient use of human resource-- if you can't see that, then you not dreaming ......
An interesting YouGov poll of what motivates UKIP voters. Apparently :
[i]More than three-quarters (76%) cite a desire to see immigration to Britain reduced, and 59% say a desire to see Britain leave the European Union – the primary objective of the party at its founding in 1991 – is what made them vote UKIP.
The opportunity to "protest" the main parties is the third most important factor for voters choosing UKIP. Almost half (47%) say dissatisfaction with the other main parties makes a vote for UKIP attractive, while a quarter (25%) cite disappointment with David Cameron and the government.[/i]
But what is quite staggering is that only 8% [u][b]of UKIP voters [/b][/u] say that their reason for voting for them is that "Ukip would run the country well". In fact it's the least reason given for voting UKIP.
Which doesn't bode well for their chances next general election. And pretty much confirms that they are still no more than a protest party.
What is also surprising is that UKIP's trump card - Nigel Farage's alleged voter appeal, is deeply flawed. Apparently he is less popular with the general population than Ed Miliband.
And more bad news for UKIP : [i]"36% of British adults say they would never consider voting UKIP – making UKIP least popular"[/i]
Only 23% would never consider voting Labour - making Labour somewhat more popular than the other 3 largest parties.
It seems that whilst no one should ever be complacent about the negative effect of an extreme right-wing party, no matter how small they are, the threat that UKIP poses should be kept in perspective, despite the wall-to-wall media coverage they've been receiving.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/03/immigration-and-europe-give-ukip-appeal/
I'm pretty much going to be able to choose where I want to live over the next few years so I could care less for nationalism.
how nice for you.....
So jeaopardising that in the short term seems pretty silly. I have great faith in what we'll be able to do in a hundred or a thousand years. Not so sure about what we can do tomorrow.
I kind of agree but we're not going to convince everyone today to stop outputting massive amounts of CO2, I think the climate debate needs to move on from this kind of discourse. We as humans have made a mistake, what we need to do now is start preparing for the future climate.
Global warming is most likely not going to kill us, the alternative is to expand into the far north and open up migration from the equatorial regions. Technology and egalitarianism is the key to responding to this scenario, people with UKIPs outlook on life will have or should have no place in this future scenario. ****ing up the planet and then telling everyone you've displaced that they can't come in is a height of callousness I hope we will never come to.
capitalism is a restrictive, wasteful , inefficient use of human resource-- if you can't see that, then you not dreaming ......
Hah. Capitalism has it's faults but inefficient it is not.
As the Two Ronnies used to say, "and now for a late item of news."
Tomorrow's Torygraph running an article quoting the father of the €, Oskar Lafointaine, calling for an end to the "catastrophic currency." Not surprisingly the headline is misleading as he is really saying that forcing internal devaluations on weak currencies is a catastrophe, but nearly the same thing! This crises throws up more unlikely bedfellows. The German left saying the same as the UK right. The next thing will be a French socialist cutting corporation taxes. Oh, wait a minute....?
Till tomorrow!
Hah. Capitalism has it's faults but inefficient it is not.
all that human potential, hardly any is realised, that is what i call inefficient....... short term profit is a strange goal....
all that human potential, hardly any is realised, that is what i call inefficient....... short term profit is a strange goal....
Aye, on the other hand I don't think a pure socialist approach is very good for reaching long term goals but you can direct capitalism.
All you have to do to get capitalism to work in your favor is to nudge it in the right direction. For example increase tax on low mpg cars to ridiculous levels and push companies to research ways of producing cars that can do 100mpg. Or tax companies for not using recycled materials forcing them to develop more efficient methods of production.
This is why big government is a good thing, we need more visionary technocrats and less short termist oxford educated public relations types.
the father of the €, Oskar Lafointaine
No he isn't. You're just claiming that 'cause it fits nicely into that narrative that you keep banging on about, which claims there's no difference between left and right in politics.
The last gasp of little England?
PS - Mr Badgerman: Au contraire - capitalism is deeply inefficient! How could any system which reduces the majority of the world to collateral damage, and restricts most of the population of the world to necessary emmiseration be anything but inefficient? The creative and liberating power of capitalism (and even then, at enormous human cost) lies back 2 centuries ago, when capitalism was a dynamic and at times even progressive force. Can anyone honestly claim that now?
PS - Mr Badgerman: Au contraire - capitalism is deeply inefficient! How could any system which reduces the majority of the world to collateral damage, and restricts most of the population of the world to necessary emmiseration be anything but inefficient? The creative and liberating power of capitalism (and even then, at enormous human cost) lies back 2 centuries ago, when capitalism was a dynamic and at times even progressive force. Can anyone honestly claim that now?
Oh give me a break, what do you suppose we revert to? Communism? A pre-industrial agrarian utopia? Do you think we should revert back to time when human misery and happiness was purely in the hands of nature? How do you think the worlds poor are to be lifted out of poverty, no growth economics? By the very definition of lifting them out of poverty we are increasing growth. Or do you think we should just cull human numbers despite the fact that NASA predictions has human population massively crashing due to increasing economic prosperity and access to family planning?
Growth in the right direction is what is lacking, what is needed is huge government intervention into more sustainable greener technology.
Badgerman-- when has Communism as a worldwide 'system' been in place--pretty sure that i missed that lesson in history ?
From your cosy sett, life may appear pleasant and settled, but as dekadanse rightly points out-- at huge expense to most of the human race---- there is a very myopic tendency to see the world through ones own prism, not glance at some others,the worst offenders are Americans, no coincidence they are the biggest consumers, and little englanders are not far behind....
So no breaks for you Mr badger-- if you want to espouse the 'benefits' of an exploitative system, have the decency to be honest about its true cost-- otherwise you are just the same as any apologist politickcian..
Badgerman-- when has Communism as a worldwide 'system' been in place--pretty sure that i missed that lesson in history ?From your cosy sett, life may appear pleasant and settled, but as dekadanse rightly points out-- at huge expense to most of the human race---- there is a very myopic tendency to see the world through ones own prism, not glance at some others,the worst offenders are Americans, no coincidence they are the biggest consumers, and little englanders are not far behind....
So no breaks for you Mr badger-- if you want to espouse the 'benefits' of an exploitative system, have the decency to be honest about its true cost-- otherwise you are just the same as any apologist politickcian..
Espousing the benefits of an exploitative system? What part of me calling for a more socially just and responsible version of capitalism did you not understand?
And how would a world wide communist government be any less exploitative than the USSR or North Korea?
Capitalism has many many faults but it's better than the alternatives you are proposing, reverting back to a tried model that failed smacks of a lack of imagination.
i think you are misguided mr badger-- stalinism, maoism or any other cronyism has as much relevance to Communism as a bald man does a comb.
Its late , and i have a welsh Cup Final to go to in the morning with my comrades from the Blue Army --The Mighty Bangor City--so its Nos Da as we say round ere ......
if you have digital tv--you can cop some of our banners--you might be surprised 3pm s4c
