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The BBC explain:
`Nato chief Mark Rutte assured in his press conference that two-thirds of Nato allies had signed up to the PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) mechanism for funding ongoing weapons purchases for Ukraine from the US'.
From what I understand, the USA are not within the two-thirds of NATO countries funding weapons for Ukraine - just making money off it. If so, then the two-thirds should prioritize weapons from those countries so as to recupe some monies - and seek to stop USA purchases all together. I know certain things like Patriot missiles are a must .. but it should be encouraging other countries to be producing their own in the future.
Russia's tactics of spinning the peace talks into hope for those wavering politicians are causing cracks to appear amongst EU/NATO members.
The carrot...
"Italy’s foreign minister on Wednesday said that it would be “premature” to take part in a NATO program to buy US weapons for Ukraine in light of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
“If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani told reporters in Brussels on Dec. 3, according to Bloomberg. “Other things such as security guarantees will be needed.”""Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, a populist figure long sympathetic to Moscow, remarked this week that he “dreams” of repairing ties with Russia."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65539
The lack of public disclosure of progress makes it difficult to assess what's happening between the US and Russia and makes it much easier for either side to spin certain aspects of a "thorough, productive meeting".
In discussions on Wednesday, Belgium is continuing to refuse access to frozen Russian assets. One alternative is for the EU to get a long-term loan but that would almost certainly be vetoed by Hungary
...and the stick
"If the crazy European Union does, after all, try to steal Russian assets frozen in Belgium under the guise of a so-called ‘reparations loan’, Russia may well view this move as tantamount to a casus belli (justification for war*) with all the relevant implications for Brussels and individual EU countries," Medvedev said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-eu-seizure-frozen-assets-could-be-tantamount-justification-2025-12-04/
(*my note)
Seems rather late in the day but... EU to ban Russian gas imports next year
They didn't agree to the outline plan until May 2025. There are concerns that EU importers in long-term contracts may be hit for breaches by Russia
The final date is a few weeks sooner than originally planned, which is quite amazing for the EU. It's only a provisional agreement so far, but is likely to be signed off by both Council and Parliament.
On 7th November it was reported that the US backed the EU in using frozen Russian assets in a reparations loan,
"As the West seeks to ramp up pressure on Moscow, the European Commission has proposed a plan allowing EU governments to use up to 185 billion euros ($217 billion) - most of the 210 billion euros worth of Russian sovereign assets currently frozen in Europe - without confiscating them.
Washington "absolutely supports (the EU) and the steps they're taking right now to be in a position to make use of those assets as a tool," the source said, requesting anonymity to discuss an ongoing issue.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-backs-eu-using-frozen-russian-assets-help-end-war-us-source-says-2025-11-07/
Less than a month later and a U-turn is reported. The now discredited 28-point plan appears to have opened US eyes to the potential for US business to profit from EU-held funds. If the reporting is accurate then it has the potential to split the EU internally and also from the US
"The US has reportedly urged several European governments to push back against an EU proposal to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a multibillion-euro loan for Ukraine, known as the reparations loan."
"Bloomberg, citing unnamed diplomats, reported that the US lobbied several EU governments to oppose the plans."
“This is a European matter, and I do not see any scenario in which the funds we mobilize would flow to the United States in economic terms,” he said, noting that Washington’s interest in securing economic benefit was “legitimate,” but not aligned with the purpose of the European initiative.
“The money must flow to Ukraine and be used to support Ukraine,”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65692
Other reporting is showing a divergence of the US from European NATO. An inward-looking, isolationist US is an America First priority, but it doesn't sit too well with the notion of long-term US exports, especially in lucrative defence sales, and the projection of US power over its allies.
It also misses the point that most US funding for Ukraine didn't go to Ukraine directly but was put into buying new US stock, exporting old stock and projects such as the first TNT factory in the US since 1986.
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic.
The message, recounted by five sources familiar with the discussion, including a U.S. official, was conveyed at a meeting in Washington this week of Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy and several European delegations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-sets-2027-deadline-europe-led-nato-defense-officials-say-2025-12-05/
"In the past 24 hours, the Trump administration released its new National Security Strategy (NSS). This is a declaratory policy, and a document, that think tanks, national security practitioners as well ad America’s friends and allies have been waiting on for some time. Like most recent M. Night Shyamalan movies, the initial reviews are hardly glowing." Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan. 5th Dec 2025
EUROPE RISKS 'CIVILISATIONAL ERASURE'
In the document, the administration took a dour view of its traditional allies in Europe, warning that the continent faces "civilizational erasure" and must change course if it is to remain a reliable ally for the United States.
The document is the latest in a series of statements by U.S. officials that have upended postwar assumptions about Europe's close relationship with its strongest ally, the United States.
"Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European," the document said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-strategy-document-revives-monroe-doctrine-slams-europe-2025-12-05/
Phillips P O'Brien has written specifically about the European angle of the NSS, while Mick Ryan has covered the Pacific:
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-new-us-national-security-strategy
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-right-mate-the-new-us-national
'lips ain't great
NATO: Favorability toward NATO has reached its highest level ever at 68%, with strong bipartisan support for Article V commitments.
Reagan National Defence Survey.
YouTube video (pro Ukrainian guy) on it here
Ukraine: A strong majority (62%) want Ukraine to prevail in its war with Russia, and 64% support sending U.S. weapons, up 9 points from last year, with bipartisan gains (59% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats).
The document that Donald never new existed, Project 25, has something on this in the Defense chapter.
P94 No 3
Transform NATO so that U.S. allies are capable of fielding the great
majority of the conventional forces required to deter Russia while
relying on the United States primarily for our nuclear deterrent, and
select other capabilities while reducing the U.S. force posture in Europe.
Tbh, depending on how much of a bunch of aholes they went about it. That would not be the worst thing for Europe if Europe actually got Its act together.
That "aholes" bit requires a lot of wishful thinking. And has no evidence to warrant it so far, quite the opposite.
That would not be the worst thing for Europe if Europe actually got Its act together.
You're absolutely right. We're at a point where two decisions have to be made: get our collective act together and under whose purview that happens
President Trump has spent a decade calling for NATO members within Europe to take more responsibility and Presidents Obama and GW Bush before that.
The problem is that Trump's pronouncements usually contain a kernel of truth, but it's the other stuff that surrounds it:
- encouraging Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to allies who don't pay their way
- encouraging far-right parties within Europe by talking-up “civilizational erasure” and “within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European” (NSS Nov2025)
- “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance”, i.e. no entry for Ukraine (NSS Nov2025)
- complaints about EU and UK regulators preventing "free-speech" from US platforms
It's about empowering the US over the EU, which is something that the US doesn't have within NATO and the EU ATM.
The Pentagon specifically talks about European NATO building conventional weapon ability; the subtext is that the US, and Russia, hold the biggest nuclear cards.
The Pentagon specifically talks about European NATO building conventional weapon ability; the subtext is that the US, and Russia, hold the biggest nuclear cards.
It's not going to happen because of the financial and political complexity, but I would really like to see us decouple our nuclear deterrent from the US. More similar to the French model and maybe even in a cost sharing collaboration with them. It's a ridiculous fantasy because our incompetent leaders would probably just sell off AWE capability to French companies and we'd have even less of an "independant" deterrent. Ignore my idle musings. Carry on.....
I trust France on European security a lot more than the US
How Trump has destroyed USA's reputation in less 12 months has been quite amazing.
Whilst it's been no surprise to see Trump and his administration of equally clueless idiots go from one blunder to the next: what has been surprising is how they have been allowed to continue given the (what looks like at this time) irreparable damage Trump etc are causing.
The USA has never looked so weak and vulnerable in my lifetime.
The USA has never looked so weak and vulnerable in my lifetime.
If it were just the US, you'd have to say " F*** 'em, leave 'em to it, they voted for this" but sadly it's affecting us all to a large extent. And Ukraine all the more so.
Trump is a **** (c) Janey Godley
Its been looking increasingly obvious since the early days of Trumps involvement that he is very much on Russia/Putin`s side regarding Ukraine. Yes he has tried to sound tough on Russia/Putin once or twice - but as many times he has actually done nothing of note (sanctions on India buying oil is likely more to do with India having access to an energy advantage to keep their economy growing).
But - its now looking a certainty Trump is fully behind Russia/Putin and sees former western allies as countries he can exploit.
So, question is, when will western countries say enough is enough and walk away from the USA?
Nobody is looking good humouring Trump, and every country is now worse off going along with him .. I`m surprised more hasnt been written about the recent deal regarding pharmaceuticals which will increase costs for the NHS substantially.
Re Trump and Russia, maybe for the Trump thread more than here.
Putin and Lavrov were harping on about a Multipolar world for a long time and things have gone quieter on that but it's probably not gone away. Trump seems to be destablilising the whole world trading structure along with Musk and to a lesser extent, Orban and Fico. Then, Venezuela threats, ICE in the US, Musk and comments about Europe...
Zelensky is doing the rounds again and is in the UK meeting heads of European countries to see what is to be done about the US peace plan. And we have three more years of the Orange Wunderkind. If he lives that long....
Geopolitics. What a time to be alive....
But - its now looking a certainty Trump is fully behind Russia/Putin and sees former western allies as countries he can exploit.
President Trump is sending messages of impatience with Ukraine and specifically President Zelensky, who "hasn’t yet read the proposal,” “his people love it” “Russia is fine with it.”
This may yet become another round of applied pressure through freezing weapons deliveries, intelligence exchanges and the ring-fencing of US tech to Ukraine's territory.
The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 7 that the new US NSS is “largely consistent with [Russia’s] vision” and could be a “modest guarantee” that Russia and the United States will be able to continue working toward securing a peace settlement in Ukraine.
Peskov stated that the Kremlin considers the NSS’s call for cooperation with Russia and refraining from listing Russia as a “direct threat” to the United States as a “positive step.”
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated that the updated NSS is a signal that the United States is ready to discuss issues related to the “security architecture,” likely referring to European security architecture and the role NATO plays in it.
Medvedev stated that the NSS “unexpectedly” aligns with Russia’s ideas about the need to share security and respect the sovereignty of states. Medvedev stated that the “window of opportunity for dialogue” is now “ajar.”"The FY26 NDAA not only enshrines the Baltic Security Initiative as a mandatory Pentagon program but also tightens Congress’ grip on US force posture in Europe in ways rarely seen outside a crisis.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7-2025/
However, US Congress is making itself heard with amendments to the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA - FY2026)
And Congress didn’t stop there. In a sweeping assertion of authority over Pentagon basing decisions, the NDAA prohibits reducing US forces in Europe below 76,000 for more than 45 days, blocks EUCOM from returning or divesting real estate, and bars the removal of major equipment from the theater.
The bill even protects the prized dual-hatted role of EUCOM’s commander as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65767
Alexander Vindman (worth googling for his resumé), a Retired Lt.Col. with the U.S. Army and a former Director for European Affairs at the U.S. National Security Council said,
With regards to Europe, Washington’s goal is to simultaneously support “patriotic” parties in Europe that seek to undermine the EU, demand that European allies spend more on defense, and re-establish “Strategic Balance” with Russia on the continent. These three policy objectives are provided under the banner of “Promoting European Greatness” - despite the fact that they are not only contradictory but also undermine the security and political ties that have defined the European-American relationship for 60 years."
https://substack.com/@avindman/p-180852150
Its pretty obvious that Trump & his goons are aligning totally with Russia now, repeating almost exactly Russia's lies on their inevitable victory, strong Russian economy and Zelensky's legitimacy -
meanwhile Russia is engaged in a hybrid war with Europe & Trump is at the same time attacking the EU for not being fascisty enough
a worrying thread here on a (paywalled) article
https://bsky.app/profile/ftedit.ft.com/post/3m7kk2pnanc2e
The MOD are reporting of the death of a UK serviceperson in an accident whilst observing some form of trials activity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e07kxey74o
Sad news indeed.
Its been looking increasingly obvious since the early days of Trumps involvement that he is very much on Russia/Putin`s side regarding Ukraine
I think he's on the side that makes most money. It's as shallow as that. He loves the idea of powerful men running the world and making money.
Sad news indeed
Very.
I'm surprised it's taken this long. It's been clear that UK has a few folk in the country, and that they are actively training and supporting.
.
I think he's on the side that makes most money. It's as shallow as that. He loves the idea of powerful men running the world and making money.
Yep, they've been happy to sell weapons to kill the side he's being alleged to be on side with.
I don't think he's on anyone's side but his.
What I came here to post was... Zelensky 'personally' agrees to elections (there's obviously more going on with that) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/09/zelenskyy-ready-for-elections-after-trump-questions-ukrainian-democracy
What I came here to post was... Zelensky 'personally' agrees to elections (there's obviously more going on with that)
He's agreed only if the US give him proper, firm and enforceable security guarantees,
"I'm asking now, and I'm stating this openly, for the US to help me, perhaps together with our European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections"
The implication is that this could only happen during a lasting peace because 900k troops (as one example) can't vote ATM
President Trump is repeating a Kremlin line that (a) President Zelensky's position is illegitimate and (b) that as such Russia can ignore any peace treaty signed by Zelensky,
A Kremlin official suggested that Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine due to the Ukrainian government’s alleged “illegitimacy” – as ISW has long warned.
Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky claimed on December 9 that Ukraine must hold elections in order to “legitimize” the government. Slutsky stated that Russia must be “absolutely certain” that no one can challenge the authority of the Ukrainian signatories on a future peace agreement. The Kremlin, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have long used deliberate misinterpretations of Ukrainian law and the Ukrainian constitution to allege that Zelensky is illegitimate.
Slutsky’s statement is in line with ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin may use its false claims about Zelensky’s illegitimacy to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine at a time of Russia’s choosing. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2025/
It's been reported that part of Ukraine's forces in the Pokrovsk region have withdrawn to preserve lives and consolidate lines.
To give some context:
• Ukraine has completely withdrawn from Pokrovsk before, consolidated and then regained ground.
• Russian forces in that region alone are larger than the entire, full-time, UK Army, Royal Navy and RAF combined
"Syrsky stressed that Myrnohrad is not encircled, though logistics there are difficult but still functioning.
He revealed that this fall there was a moment when Ukrainian troops were no longer present in Pokrovsk, but a subsequent counteroffensive allowed them to regain ground.
According to Syrsky, Russia continues to build up its forces in the Pokrovsk sector, where roughly 156,000 Russian troops* are now concentrated."“A few days ago, I gave the order to withdraw our servicemen from positions 5 - 7 kilometers from Pokrovsk, which still remained there,” he said, adding that those positions could not be rotated and were being penetrated by Russian forces.
Further defending them, he added, “was not advisable.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65929
I think he's on the side that makes most money.
Great column in the Sunday Times by Matthew Syed linking many of Trump's foreign policy decisions to his business interests in the countries affected, including those in Moscow.
Russian forces in that region alone are larger than the entire, full-time, UK Army, Royal Navy and RAF combined
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
Almost certainly. The rule of thumb for attacking prepared defensive positions is that you need a 3:1 ratio of attackers to defenders for any chance of success. The Russian "meat assault" tactics seem to be a lot more profligate with manpower than that. Russia is paying a huge price for every inch of dirt they capture.
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
Almost certainly. The rule of thumb for attacking prepared defensive positions is that you need a 3:1 ratio of attackers to defenders for any chance of success. The Russian "meat assault" tactics seem to be a lot more profligate with manpower than that. Russia is paying a huge price for every inch of dirt they capture.
Stalin's thinking of "quantity has a quality all its own" is oft quoted, but there is another side that people fail to give equal or greater credence to: "quality has a quantity of its own".
MOD have released the details of the UK serviceman's death.
Rest in Power Reg.
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
A de-militarised zone (DMZ)
It's a US proposed compromise and only Ukraine will withdraw.
It's not clear who will govern it and and it's not what either side wants.
The US doesn't understand that if you impose a deadline (Christmas) then you'll end up without the leverage to push a deal through
Back to the wtf, eh?
The US doesn't understand that if you impose a deadline (Christmas) then you'll end up without the leverage to push a deal through
Predictably, Russia has officially rejected the original 28-point peace plan
Lavrov effectively rejected the following provisions:
- Freezing the current line of contact in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts;
- Restarting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) rather than Russia;
- Requiring NATO only to cease further enlargement rather than insisting on rolling NATO back to its pre-1997 borders;
- Permitting European fighter jets to be stationed in Poland;
- Providing reliable security guarantees to Ukraine;
- Confirming Ukraine’s sovereignty; and
- Accepting EU regulations on the protection of religious minorities as the required basis for Ukrainian laws on the subject. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2025/
The pressure is now on the US, who will in turn pressure Ukraine and Europe to have the outline in place by Christmas.
This is no way to run international diplomacy; we're into $$$ above all else
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
Place where US and to a lesser extent Russian companies will exploit natural and human resources. Obviously.
Donald Trump closing deadlines for next years Peace Prize nominations based on his concept of The Shart of the Deal. He'll be wanting to join BRICS next.
Place where US and to a lesser extent Russian companies will exploit natural and human resources. Obviously.
And a place where anything goes. You want shit smuggled into Russia avoiding sanctions and or customs? Take it through the Donbass. Same thing coming out... Just make sure that the customs people get paid off enough (or threatened enough) and you'll have a way into Europe for whatever you want.
I think you probably have it right
I think you probably have it right
Ukraine is taking back territory around Kupiansk, And Pokrovsk still holds.
Ukraine is taking back territory around Kupiansk, And Pokrovsk still holds.
President Putin announced the capture of Kupyansk in November, which wasn't completely true and part of the Kremlin campaign to get better concessions from President Trump.
On 9th December Russian General Sergey Kuzovlev received a medal from Putin, in person, for the successful capture.
President Volodymyr Zelensky published a photo of himself on the southwestern outskirts of Kupyansk along the P-07 Kupyansk-Shevchenkove highway on December 12.
I don't suppose that he's anywhere near the fighting, so this shouts loud and proud that Kupyansk has been taken by Ukraine, with more than 200 Russian troops captured.
General Kuzovlev can't be found. All of the suggestions are that he's dead, but he just might be in the wind before he's offered a poor choice
If you go back a couple of pages ^^
Russia is withdrawing troops from other areas to keep absorbing their massive losses in Pokrovsk, which has enabled Ukraine to concentrate a counter-offensive in Kupyansk, another city on the edge.
Russia's decision to throw everything at Pokrovsk has cost them
"Ukrainian forces recently liberated territory including part of the city of Kupyansk in a tactical counterattack in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian 2nd Khartiya Corps reported on December 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction and liberated Kindrashivka and Radkivka (both north of Kupyansk) and the surrounding forests, liberated areas in northern Kupyansk, and broke through to the Oskil River, cutting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Kupyansk area."
"A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces began infiltrating the northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk from Myrove (just northwest of Kupyansk) and Radkivka, indicating that Ukrainian forces also liberated Myrove."
Ukraine has proposed peace deal amendments to the US,
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak told French outlet Le Monde that the Ukrainian proposal to the United States contains three parts: the 20-point proposal to end the war itself, a proposal about the creation of a postwar European security architecture and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a proposal on Ukraine’s reconstruction and defensive capabilities.
Podolyak stated that Russia must pay reparations to help rebuild Ukraine.
Podolyak stated that Ukraine agreed to create a demilitarized “buffer” zone in Donbas, but that both Russian and Ukrainian forces will need to pull back from the current front line to create this zone. Zelensky additionally proposed at a briefing that Ukraine should hold a referendum on the territorial provisions of the US peace proposal> https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
Russia rejected their version
The Kremlin explicitly rejected Ukraine’s proposals for a ceasefire and referendum. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Zelensky’s territorial referendum proposal on December 12 by explicitly rejecting a ceasefire as a pause that “will not work” for Russia.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/