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In Trump's America?  Who knows? 

 

True, but there is this polling published September. https://harvardharrispoll.com/

 


 
Posted : 31/10/2025 8:52 pm
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Posted by: chewkw

As long as the Russian does not mistake Storm Shadow, Tomahawk etc as carrying nuclear war head(s), they will not retaliate with similar  nuclear capable war heads.  The problem is that when the Russia suddenly think that a nuclear capable "vessel" is on their way to Russia, they might counter strike immediately.  Then the whole place is uninhabitable for several hundred years. 

Everyone understands that the point of Russian nuclear posturing is to "reflexively control" western decision makers and they've clearly taken you in too.

Storm Shadow doesn't have a nuclear option and Tomahawk isn't in Ukraine (yet). The Russian military is professional and understands that nuclear warheads wouldn't be supplied in any case.

Russia has been firing a whole bunch of nuclear-capable missiles into Ukraine for almost four years, including Oreshnik and Novator and hasn't made a nuclear mistake (Novator caused the US to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019).

Prevailing winds tend to blow fallout from Ukraine into Russia (see Chernobyl); the only countries affected by higher becquerel levels were Ukraine (the site) and Russia, with Belarus a distant third.

Posted by: chewkw

They don't trust the words of the West or if they suddenly feel very threaten, the melt down begins.  All Ukraine needs to do is to create the Franz Ferdinand moment out of desperation, and with the Russians thinking there is a pre-emptive strike from the West/Ukraine they will retaliate accordingly.     

Do tell. You must be one of very few in the world who knows who the heir to the President's seat is.

 


 
Posted : 01/11/2025 9:09 am
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Not great news coming out of Ukraine.  It's been teetering on the brink for a good while, but it looks like Pokrovsk has all but fallen bar a few tiny pockets of resistance.  Kupyansk heading that way too.  This has come of course at a monumental cost in human life to Russia and of course to Ukraine, but not on the same scale due to the defenders advantage. This is pretty grim as both cities are logistical hubs that pave the way for further advances by Russia.  There is evidence of war crimes coming out of Pokrovsk, including summary executions of civilians trapped there.

In other news Ukraine reportedly launched it's largest drone attack to date on Saturday night. It came in direct response to further Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.  It seems Ukraine was able to turn the lights out in large areas of Moscow.  Something Russia has done to Ukraine with impunity for 4 years.  At least now they will feel some of the pain they have repeatedly inflicted on Ukraine.

**** Putin.  I hope the **** comes to a very unpleasant end some time soon.


 
Posted : 02/11/2025 3:56 pm
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Posted by: blokeuptheroad

Not great news coming out of Ukraine.  It's been teetering on the brink for a good while, but it looks like Pokrovsk has all but fallen bar a few tiny pockets of resistance.  Kupyansk heading that way too.  This has come of course at a monumental cost in human life to Russia and of course to Ukraine, but not on the same scale due to the defenders advantage. This is pretty grim as both cities are logistical hubs that pave the way for further advances by Russia.  There is evidence of war crimes coming out of Pokrovsk, including summary executions of civilians trapped there.

Pokrovsk is really difficult to call ATM. Russia has called encirclement/victory way too early, largely because President Putin has named it as a "must" (along with Bakhmut (fell 2022) and Avdiivka (Feb 2024)) with his deadline in a couple of weeks. It's never a good idea to let political leaders decide military "prizes".

The "frontlines" appear to be massively porous, so assessed control of an area of either land or air is impossible to call. Both Russia and Ukraine agree that at least one Ukrainian helicopter landed SF in Pokrovsk https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-lands-special-forces-embattled-pokrovsk-sources-say-2025-10-31/ and https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63433 which Ukraine turned to trolling that Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), was there in person.

The important thing now is to keep lines for withdrawal open and to keep fighting for as long as is acceptable. Russia is withdrawing troops from other areas to keep absorbing their massive losses in Pokrovsk, which has enabled Ukraine to concentrate a counter-offensive in Kupyansk, another city on the edge. 

Looking at a map, I'd have been gone from Pokrovsk, but the situation on the ground doesn't appear to reflect that.

 


 
Posted : 03/11/2025 10:22 am
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A further Stefan Korshak piece on Pokrovsk https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/63546


 
Posted : 04/11/2025 7:31 pm
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An increase in mechanised assault by Russia last month has again led to the abandonment of such tactics in the face of failure and they're back to the old Soviet doctrine that it doesn't matter what the problem is, just throw personnel into it.

After the last two unseasonal years, they're also back to seasonal weather in the Pokrovsk Raion of fog, rain and cold. Those conditions hamper drone operations on both sides and "a Russian mechanized column stuck in the Kazennyi Torets River near Pankivka (east of Dobropillya) during a failed October 25 mechanized assault indicates that autumn weather conditions are impeding Russian mechanized operations." (ISW link below)

I started a longer piece, walked away for half an hour and then found this, FML, but it saves me some writing 🙂

Is this a Russian breakthrough? Has the tide turned? Or is what is currently happening more likely to be the “culmination of Russian efforts to conquer at least something this year,” as Ukrainian analyst Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies puts it?
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/63619

In Pokrovsk,

The Ukrainian drone unit stated that these Russian fireteams are overwhelming Ukrainian positions such that Ukrainian drone operators do not have time to launch drones. Ukrainian military sources have recently reported that Russian infiltration groups are deliberately targeting Ukrainian drone crews to engage them in close combat, inhibiting Ukrainian drone operations.

Mashovets stated that Russian forces send out many small assault groups for further infiltration missions and to consolidate and reinforce positions during the exploitation phase, likely hoping to overwhelm Ukrainian forces while sustaining heavy casualties.

The current battlespace in the Pokrovsk direction took Russian forces 21 months to achieve... (and) advance the 39 kilometers (just over 24 miles) from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk.

Successful Ukrainian drone operations largely stymied Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction from late 2024 into summer 2025.

The urban environment in Pokrovsk has provided Russian forces with cover and concealment for infiltration groups and drone crews that are absent in other areas of the frontline, and Russia has dedicated staggering and unsustainable amounts of manpower and materiel to seizing Pokrovsk.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2025/

Here's a frontline view of the situation in Pokrovsk by Diana Butsko, a journalist who is interviewing Ukraine's troops. It's as valid as the more optimistic picture from Ukraine's command https://hromadske.ua/en/war/254005-


 
Posted : 05/11/2025 11:15 am
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The tipping point in Russian oil production may have been reached. According to Bloomberg the number of tankers sitting in Russian ports filled with oil, but without customers, is rising. This may be a lull while the markets work out how to bypass current US and EU sanctions, but if this continues oil production will have to be slowed at massive cost to the Russian economy.

The amount of Russian crude idling offshore has soared to more than 380 million barrels, rising by 27 million barrels, or 8% since the start of September, according to Bloomberg citing tanker-tracking data, which underscores the growing log jam.

A report by Bloomberg last week showed that Russian exports of refined fuels had dropped to levels unseen since the war began.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63642


 
Posted : 05/11/2025 11:31 am
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Stefan Korshak opinion piece. Well worth reading in full. Some bits here with comments in [brackets] by me, although some parts in (brackets) are part of the original article.

OPINION: Strikes That Shock, the Pokrovsk Winkle, Tea Party Tangent
Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Ukraine's air campaign:
But for about the past three weeks, the Ukrainians widened their targeting [from oil refineries and exports to include] the Russian power grid, and particularly Russian power substations and the transformers inside them.

We are eyewitnesses to a systemic, long-term, strategic Ukrainian effort to force blackouts on the Moscow power grid, keep them coming, and undermine that grid’s capacity to run industry and heat homes.

Pokrovsk:
The short version of this section is “fighting continuing and situation unclear.” If you want more detail well there was plenty – just none of it conclusive.

Dobropillya:
...the Kremlin sacked the commander of the 51st Combined Arms Army Lt. Gen. Sergey Milchakov, and the commander of 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade Maj. Gen. Sergey Naimushin for “failures in the Dobropillya direction,” meaning they were in charge of a major offensive operation just to the north of Pokrovsk in August and September.

The Ukrainians defeated it solidly by bringing up reserves, cutting the Russian penetration into several encirclements, and then wiping out each sack of Russian troops one by one.

Tuapse oil terminal closed to exports:
Russian authorities said “falling debris” damaged two foreign civilian ships and infrastructure but claimed no injuries. [Four "shadow fleet" tankers and a tug damaged or destroyed]

Bloomberg on Thursday confirmed the strikes had shut the terminal down full stop, major exports of Russian oil for the time being are no longer possible via the Black Sea. Also, the oil refinery in Tuapse that produces things like diesel or gasoline for export, is shut down as well.

Avdiivka:
The target was a pair of launch ramps for Shahed drones built by Russian forces on the edge of Donetsk airport. Adjacent was a storage site for assembled drones and, it seems quite clear, a stock of fuel and warheads for the drones.

Ukrainian sources claim: Ammunition dump totally destroyed, fuel dump totally destroyed, launch ramps and equipment destroyed, power lines and support buildings damaged, 1,000 Shaheds destroyed, 1,500 munitions (est.) destroyed. [There's video too]

It seems like about a half dozen drones and a smaller number of missiles executed the strike.

[Believed to be FP2 drones and possibly Storm Shadow, but that isn't confirmed. UK and France have restarted Storm Shadow production] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-storm-shadow-and-missile-cooperation-to-boost-jobs-as-uk-and-france-reboot-defence-relationship

SAMP/T vs. Patriot:
[Bit of a discussion on AD systems.]
It includes, "interceptor missiles no matter who makes them are ridiculously expensive ($3 million a pop) and what’s worse the US stopped giving Ukrainian Patriot missiles back in February, and since then will only sell them at a marked-up price"
[For clarity, President Trump imposed a 10% surcharge on US sales to NATO to cover US Security Guarantees]

NATO military industry expansion:
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a Thursday press conference announced that overall NATO ammunition production had overtaken Russia’s, and now the Atlantic Alliance is cranking out more shell than Russia.
[Essentially a decision taken by industry rather than by vacillating politicians, based on foresight by industry]

US Tariffs:
What I am not seeing, however, is the – to me – obvious point that the Americans fought a Revolution against Great Britain, because the British King George claimed the right to put tariffs on goods imported by the American colonies.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/63866


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 10:22 am
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There's been a boost to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's election hopes in April. His Fidesz party is polling a steady 38% v 45% for the favourite Peter Magyar of Tisza

WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions for using Russian oil and gas, a White House official said on Friday, after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban pressed his case for a reprieve during a friendly meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington.

"He has not made a mistake on immigration. So he's respected by everybody, he's liked by some ... I like and respect him, I'm a double," Trump said. "And that's the way Hungary is being led. They're being led properly, and that's why he's going to be very successful in his upcoming election."
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-meet-hungarys-orban-discuss-russian-oil-economic-cooperation-2025-11-07/


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 10:28 am
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Russia really doesn't want Belgium to put €140 billion of frozen Russian assets into a reparations loan for Ukraine.

BRUSSELS, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Belgium's Liege airport has resumed flights after a temporary halt due to a drone sighting, the country's air traffic control service said on Friday in the second such incident this week.
The Skeyes air traffic control service said it received a report of a drone being spotted over the airport around 06:30 GMT, leading to a closure of the airport for about 30 minutes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgiums-liege-airport-temporarily-halted-again-due-drone-sighting-belga-says-2025-11-07/


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 10:34 am
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Good updates timba... 


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 10:43 am
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Old fishing nets from France become vital protection against Russian drones in Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/08/old-fishing-nets-vital-protection-against-russian-drones-ukraine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 12:59 pm
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Apparently Lavrov hasn’t been seen for a while - no one really knows what this means, plenty of speculation though !! 🤣


 
Posted : 08/11/2025 7:49 pm
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Russia really doesn't want Belgium to put €140 billion of frozen Russian assets into a reparations loan for Ukraine.

Which explains why the Russian hacktivists have been focussing on Belgian targets this last week; transport and banking mainly.


 
Posted : 09/11/2025 2:35 pm
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Lavrov: still breathing I'm afraid. No window/tea interfaces. Yet.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63945


 
Posted : 10/11/2025 9:26 am
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TLDR: The politically important messaging from Ukraine's Government has taken a big hit this week as six months of missteps culminated in a corruption scandal and PR disaster, upsetting citizens, affecting its EU trajectory and presenting a bonus to Russia that will cause wobbles in Europe over funding Ukraine's defence.

There's a bit of background followed by an outline of the corruption scandal that erupted this week. Read the full articles for more detail.

Background
Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), have been independent since 2015 after the Euromaidan demonstrations ousted much of Moscow's influence and set Ukraine on the road to EU membership.

Independence of the NABU and SAPO agencies, importantly, gave them the room to investigate anyone and anything within the state apparatus without referring to the respective state departments for permission and final decisions, thus complying with EU requirements.

In July, Ukraine's SBU (security services) raided both agencies because of allegations of Russian infiltration, which was almost immediately followed by a suspicious rush in Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada (Rada), to strip both agencies of their independence through changes in legislation.

The changes bypassed a first reading by hitching a ride on a bill already at second reading stage, was narrowly passed by the Rada and signed by President Zelensky into law on 22nd July within days rather than the usual delay of months.

This raised corruption concerns in the EU and also caused street protests in Ukraine; why would you destroy investigative independence and integrity when you could more simply deal with a few Russian agents?

Within a couple of days President Zelensky submitted a second bill effectively reversing the first, which was aired more properly in the Rada a week later in two back-to-back readings on 31st July and became law on 1st August, also within a few days.

This time it was passed by a greater number of politicians, but which leaves the issue of Russian influence in the Rada possibly being greater than that allegedly within Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies and its effect on funding for Ukraine's defence.

Reference: https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-votes-on-bill-restoring-nabu-sapo-independence/

This Week
Timur Mindich, majority co-owner of Kvartal 95 Studio, which produced President Zelensky’s TV series Servant of the People (which also happens to be the name taken by his political party) left Ukraine the day before NABU raids.

The allegations are that Mindich assisted in a $100mn corruption scheme involving Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear power operator. Some members of Zelensky's cabinet have resigned and have had restrictions placed on them during investigations, along with some Energoatom executives.

This comes at a time when Ukraine's energy infrastructure is taking a beating from Russian missile strikes and workers are placing their lives on the line to effect repairs.
It also coincides with Europe looking for satisfactory ways to divert frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in the form of a loan.

"The whole Energoatom situation was clearly a PR disaster for Zelensky, coming on the back of the Pokrovsk situation evolving in a pretty bad way. It also comes as the Europeans are debating the immobilized Central Bank of Russia (CBR) asset issue – or the alternatives.

Europe putting its hand in its pocket for more funds while some members of the Zelensky administration – allegedly – having their hand in the same pocket taking cash out – is not a great look."

"This could all still play out as a win for Zelensky if he is seen as finally addressing the corruption issue – and he has moved to force the resignation of his energy and justice ministers, finally."

"The winners in this will be Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrei Yermak, and the PM, Yulia Svyrdenko. Neither have been mentioned in the Energoatom case, and Svyrdenko is using this to push for a broader clear-out within the Zelensky team."
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/64233


 
Posted : 16/11/2025 12:12 pm
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I'll leave you with an opinion on the military situation by Stefan Korshak. I've included a paragraph, but the full article is worth reading

Ukrainian Commander Calls for ‘Calm’ and Less ‘Overreaction’ to New Kremlin Push in South
Official Ukrainian statements say the Russians are stopped. Official Kremlin statements say Russia is advancing. Independent observers say the situation isn’t clear.
by Stefan Korshak | Nov. 14, 2025

Kyrll Sazonov, a 41st Brigade officer, in a Thursday analysis of the Zaporizhzhia-Hulyaipole battles called the fighting there “a big mess.” Small groups of Russian infantry are filtering through Ukrainian lines, and Ukrainian counter-attackers are seeking to hunt them down, and neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64242


 
Posted : 16/11/2025 12:20 pm
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neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.

Tbh, you could say that about the entire conflict zone for really quite some time now


 
Posted : 16/11/2025 6:00 pm
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Posted by: piemonster

neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.

Tbh, you could say that about the entire conflict zone for really quite some time now

Russia has a clear advantage: 10x the numbers of aircraft, 7x the number of armoured vehicles, 5x the numbers of military ships and it's taken them twelve years to still not capture the whole Donbas region (or 20% of Ukraine)

Troop numbers in Ukraine are slightly in Ukraine's favour, but they're defending an entire country, which is equivalent to another four Donbas regions. Russia is fighting in limited areas so has a massive advantage there too

 


 
Posted : 17/11/2025 9:55 am
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That's just an advantage in numbers, not an advantage in the ability to win the war anytime soon which is what I was getting at.

 

What I was here to post is, Anders has done a longer Q and A


 
Posted : 17/11/2025 1:09 pm
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Posted by: piemonster

That's just an advantage in numbers, not an advantage in the ability to win the war anytime soon which is what I was getting at.

Without wishing to pick a fight, this is a massive problem in the EU ATM. I'm not equating you to any of this, but it's a difficult path for Ukraine ATM when they could be making progress.

Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to stop the Russian army. More than that, in 2022 Ukraine's forces forced the withdrawal of the numerically advantaged Russian forces from the edge of Kyiv and back into the Donbas

That tells me that a properly supported Ukraine has the advantage in leadership and innovation over a Russia supported by N.Korea and China.

The failure to agree a deal within the EU on the €140bn in frozen assets is a case in point. In October they agreed to call it a "reparation loan", which according to Chancellor Merz is "a step forward", just as the ball was kicked into the long grass until December.

This fits with Reuters reporting, "Hungary PM Orban says Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield". Europe won't commit certain weapons to Ukraine to give them an advantage and now they won't commit funds either, so Ukraine is mired.

Germany then added that Ukraine must use the loan to buy weapons that suit EU members,

It is "important that these additional funds are solely used to finance Ukraine's military equipment", Merz wrote in the Financial Times, adding that EU member states and Ukraine would "jointly determine" which weapons to procure. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwykd4l3dy1o

IMHO, this is why Ukraine is now signing letters of intent on fleets of Gripen and Rafale aircraft that are of minimal use now, but might be by 2035 

Financial details are yet to be worked out, but reports say France plans to attract EU financing and also access frozen Russian assets - a controversial move that has split the 27-member bloc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy170jkekdo

Ukraine's allies need to get behind them and push for a quick win, rather than supporting Orban's line.

 


 
Posted : 18/11/2025 1:14 pm
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The US sanctions bill may be passed into law and will allow the imposition 500% tariffs, which will be of concern in Europe where Russian energy is still relied upon in part. It may be necessary for the EU to make deals for Presidential exemptions if they exceed a 180-day limit.

President Trump has been saying for months that the bill will only be signed by him if he retains final control over the sanctions imposed, without deferring to Congress.

This would allow him similar exemptions to those existing on Russian oil for supply to Hungary and for which a sell-off of privately-owned Lukoil assets to certain companies was allowed.

The bipartisan sanctions bill – co-authored by Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and carrying the support of over 85 senators – had been gathering dust as the White House pursued its own diplomatic strategy with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

That barrier was decisively dropped Sunday night. Speaking to reporters, Trump – who recently sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft* and Lukoil – gave the legislation his blessing. “I hear they’re doing that, and that’s OK with me,” he said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64409

(*Rosneft is state-owned)


 
Posted : 18/11/2025 1:21 pm
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Pokrovsk still holds btw.


 
Posted : 18/11/2025 2:20 pm
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Looks like Putin and Trump have been holding secret talks, and a “28 point peace plan” has been agreed. No involvement from Ukraine or NATO/ Europe. What a **** show


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 6:15 pm
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I've only seen a small story in the torygraph, and then a copypasta in the daily mail, are there any other sources for this?


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 6:29 pm
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Original story was from Axios I think:

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 6:51 pm
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Maybe Putin really does have that photo of Trump and "Bubba"

 

 


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 7:15 pm
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The 28 point plan got quite an airing on Radio 4 PM tonight. Suspect the same report might be on telly news too. 


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 7:26 pm
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Posted by: dakuan

I've only seen a small story in the torygraph, and then a copypasta in the daily mail, are there any other sources for this?

Paywalled, but Reuters has reported it

 


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 7:31 pm
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Complete waste of time, UKR won't agree to that, and rightly so. It's time the Tangerine ****waffle manned TFU and accepts he's backing the wrong horse.


 
Posted : 19/11/2025 8:36 pm
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on the bbc now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgdgrqwnq9o

 

Trump was always going to sell them out


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 9:39 am
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I fail to see how Ukraine giving up land, weapons, etc is a fair deal for ending the war that the Russians started. Surely a better resolution for Ukraine would be the Russians returning to pre-invasion lines and giving up some of their weapons. Yes, that seems fair, hobble the aggressor instead of making the defender worse off and more open to another future invasion.

I've not even considered the Crimea question, but that might be a sticking point for Russia given the port/military complex and the number of oligarchs that have dachas there.

I'm also not even going to start on the fact that the peace plan was agreed by Cheeto and Putin without input of any sort from the people it impacts most. 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 10:17 am
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It's not just about "fairness" either. It's about making it clear that further advances will be resisted.


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 10:33 am
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Posted by: doomanic

Complete waste of time, UKR won't agree to that, and rightly so.

 

Given he's not after a peace deal, he's after a press release with 'peace deal' written on it. He absolutely can compell ukraine into signing something. Europe wont be ready in time (if ever) to backfill all the things the US is providing.

 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 10:39 am
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Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions. Trump will then turn on them (again) because it will upset his buddy/handler in the Kremlin and hinder his desire for a blingy Nobel gong to be pinned on him.  Sadly predictable.  Hopefully, European leaders can provide some balance.


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 10:53 am
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Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact yet again. 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 11:27 am
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Posted by: blokeuptheroad

Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions.

If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?

 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 12:57 pm
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Posted by: dakuan

If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?

It does look that way unfortunately.

USA have proved a basket case allowing Trump to very clearly position them with Russia - and Europe have demonstrated all their bad points when they should have been doing their best to step up. Even now the EU are stalling on allowing the UK to be part of their military reconstructioning.


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 1:42 pm
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Russia chancing their arm, again.

This lack of movement on their basic demands led to President Trump refusing to meet President Putin in Hungary last month.

What's different now is the inevitable taint attached to President Zelensky following the corruption plot by close confidants ^^. We'll see how the next polls look but the pot to weaken Zelensky is being stirred quite strongly

Keith Kellogg's retirement announcement will have encouraged Russia too

Putin always welcomes exposure on the world stage, with bonus points for it being in the EU, so losing the opportunity in Hungary will have hurt.

The WH freestyles so you get competing ideas leaking freely, none of which helps.


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 1:51 pm
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Posted by: dakuan

Posted by: blokeuptheroad

Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions.

If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?

 

Interesting point, but difficult to call.

A long-range strike into Russia was authorised on the 18th using US ATACMS for the first time in this presidency.

That's the one where Russia showed pics of ATACMS missiles claiming to have shot them down over Voronezh. They were airburst weapons that worked as advertised while the bulk of what's left fell out of the sky 

 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 2:00 pm
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Zeilinsky is tainted? What a joke ! The man is a practically angel compared to the Putin/Trump axis.

As for this so called peace plan, its identical to those previously rejected,


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 2:38 pm
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From Phillip O’Brien

“ It is important that people understand that this deal is Trump’s because of one thing. We now have evidence of exactly what Trump would like to see in a deal to end the war. For months there has been speculation, rumor, wild conjecture about what Trump wanted. Was he getting angry with Putin? Was he going to support Ukraine? Was he wanting to work with Europe? Now we know and the picture is not pretty.

Trump wants a peace deal that rewards Putin and punishes Ukraine. He wants a peace deal with no European input and which he can impose on Ukraine. He wants to get back to business with Putin as soon as possible and start making money. In sum, he does not care about democracy or freedom, indeed Trump wants to punish both. He wants to work with and reward a dictatorship—and now, finally, the media must acknowledge that.

Will he get his way? Maybe not. There are major possible roadblocks before this deal could become a reality. The Ukrainians might balk, European states might rally behind Ukraine and move away from the USA, or the very dysfunctional nature of the administration might cripple these plans. But that is for the future. For this moment we now know what Trump believes and wants. It is an ugly, disheartening picture.”

Sums it up well


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 2:44 pm
kelvin and willard reacted
Posts: 12367
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Posted by: futonrivercrossing

As for this so called peace plan, its identical to those previously rejected,

It's not a peace plan, it's a list of Russian demands. Ukraine has rejected those before and will reject them again. The inevitable failure won't make Trump look like a peacemaker, it will just make him look weak. Trump hate's looking weak so I doubt this will make any difference to U.S. support for Ukraine.


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 3:06 pm
Posts: 14484
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Think I'll wait and see what actually happens/doesn't happen before thinking too much about this. 


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 6:05 pm
Posts: 1246
Free Member
 

wise! there's probably an almighty bunfight happing behind the scenes. It's keloggs resignation thats concerning me as much as anything else


 
Posted : 20/11/2025 9:45 pm
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