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[quote=jambalaya ]Boris, Davies, Rudd are all circling.
Boris is circling, the other two are busted. I'm wondering what DD has on her that he's still in the cabinet, whilst AR needs to find a seat where she's likely to still be an MP after the next election (if it wasn't for that, she seems the most credible option).
decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.
You may well be right on the first part, the second part depends on who wins the election, and whether those negotiating for the EU consider it worth extending the timetable to get a better deal for the EU (hint: I doubt they'll feel that way about the Tories).
As said before, Rudd is never going to be an option with such a tiny minority, Davis reputation is ruined - his mad gamble on an early ge was obviously to give himself a cushion because he knew the negotiations were gonna be a shitshow way beyond his abilities
slowoldman - MemberWell it is perhaps questionable that the government should be in a position of possible favouritism with one of the major players in NI politics with respect to the peace agreement and brokering power sharing.
Hands up everyone who remembers what happened last time
Tories will never agree any figure as they know thats an election loser so decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.
Slightly comical that jamba is back predicting away, having just got everything about the election completely and utterly wrong. Crack on, jamba!
Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE, that was May all the way. Davies has a strong following in the party his biggest threat for the leadership is Boris.
Result gives Davies some interesting options, he can be as bold as he likes now, if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won't agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50
DrJ I did pick the winner just not the margin I (and all the commentators) thought 8)
[quote=jambalaya ]Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE, that was May all the way.
Not what is being reported.
if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won't agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50
Yay, will of the people. Though see my comments above regarding EU attitude to a UK team willing to negotiate rather than demand.
and it begins :
still time to edit your post Jambalaya .
i said the tories would win with a smaller majority than they expected so technically i was actually more correct on this than you 8) and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well 😉
Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE
According to Andrew Neil last night he was the man who persuaded May
Result gives Davies some interesting options,
He was all about concessions last night
He's looked rabbit in the headlights for a while now as the reality of Brexit has dawned on him
and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well
😀
Another reason why this election has significantly reduced the likelihood of Brexit actually happening, is the collapse of the UKIP vote.
A majority of the Conservative MPs did not support Brexit, and the referendum only happened because of the votes that UKIP was getting at the expense of the Conservatives and threatening the seats of some of their MPs.
If, as appears possible, the main focus of politics in Parliament and the UK is moving back to a traditional Conservative/Labour (Left/Right) battle with all eyes on an early election, and UKIP are a much weaker force and no longer able to threaten to split the right wing vote in Conservative constituencies, then the majority of Conservative MPs will not be interested in actively pushing for progress in Brexit negotiations: all they will care about is winning their own seats and getting a majority in the next election.
I doubt that they would elect David Davis as leader, precisely because he is a conviction politician who would stick by his beliefs and principles regardless of the political cost to himself, his party or fellow MPs. The Conservative MPs don't want a conviction politician who would be willing to risk their seats and overall victory to pursue a Brexit, when they themselves either do not believe in it or are at best lukewarm: they want a political star, a proven vote winner who will help them get re-elected.
That means Boris. And Boris as leader is probably the worst hope for those who support Brexit. If Boris perceives continuing with Brexit is harmful to him and his political ambitions, he will do a 180 degree turn and jettison it, and he is probably the one politician who has the political skills and charisma to get away with saying to the electorate that he tried, but it just wasn't possible, and now we need to forget Brexit and focus on the future.
Slowster you missed your calling
Thanks for the advice earlier
We're in for very interesting times.
I still don't understand Theresa May's folly in cosying up to the DUP and risking destruction of the Northern Ireland peace deal. It's apparent that Ruth Davidson of the Tories is pretty livid about this. Tory infighting can be breathtakingly destructive, remember that is exactly the reason why we ended up with a referendum whereby pretty much no-one in the country had access to the full facts before making a decision.
Meanwhile, May is back at Downing Street with the same tired cabinet, the same message, the same priorities and a weakened hand. She's learned nothing about this election and unless she finds a way to reach out to the various hostile factions in her own party, she's in deep trouble. The problem for May is that her leadership style is isolated and authoritarian, not exactly the qualities required right now.
in this mad world Boris not negotiating Brexit makes perfect sense I no longer fear him.
For the second time today, Slowster is on the money.
But I wouldn't discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren't tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Jezza looks to have united a skeptical Labour Party and some of their big guns who've sat on the fence until now look to be negotiating for shadow cabinet posts.
But I wouldn't discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren't tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.
I'd say Rudd is damaged goods as well: She didn't exactly come out of the campaign well, and it showed in her near defeat.
As fars as I can see: Corbyn is the only one who can unite the country, at the moment.
[quote=PJM1974 ]I still don't understand Theresa May's folly in cosying up to the DUP and risking destruction of the Northern Ireland peace deal.
On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot's motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen's speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.
Do you think she cares at all about the NI peace deal? It seems at this point she is quite happy to be remembered as the shittest PM ever so long as she gets to feel powerful for a bit longer - or maybe her hubris is such that she simply doesn't realise what everybody thinks of her (I see parallels with Facha).
On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot's motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen's speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.
@Aracer, your explanation is indeed the simplest and most logical. It's also the most potentially dangerous of the UK. Listening to a tired, aged May make her speech outside No 10 this afternoon, her voice tinged with hysteria made me worry that our PM is quite unwell.
Is it just me but I can't see that the Tory/DUP coalition is going to last?
Firstly it jeopardises the NI peace process, in the middle of a negotiation to rebuild powersharing in stormont
the Good Friday agreement is probably one of the greatest UK political achievements of my lifetime, wtf !
Secondly the DUP are about as toxic as it gets, re terrorism, evolution, creationism, abortion, gay rights... Ask Ruth Davidson
They've still got a tiny majority- 2 seats!, no consensus on Brexit among other things, several of her MPs were only elected on the tiniest of majorities, they will be very aware of what they are voting on and how it plays in their constituencies
We are now a joke, May launched into her GE, much to the annoyance of the EU, at the worst possible time, she looks weak and the mandate for her Brexit has evaporated,
So whens the next election?
she is no thatcher more Gordon Brown in that she is clearly just not equipped with the skills for the job. Neither had much charisma/ bon hommie either and both were shit with voters.
[quote=kimbers ]So whens the next election?
As always when in doubt I check the odds - can get almost 2/1 against another GE this year, reckon I might go for that, it seems implausible they can last 6 months.
[quote=Junkyard ]she is no thatcher
The only quality I was suggesting she shared was hubris.
I don't think a purely tory party with a 2 seat majority would be succesful let alone this, tbh. Tories love self-preservation but they also know about the tipping point where hanging on for an extra day hurts you for longer.
But at the same time they know the next election, however many weeks or months away, is probably going to be much worse for them. Scottish unionists on the left have woken up to a Tory government that they created by their obsession with the indy ref- it was so easily avoidable, literally a couple of seats, I don't think they'll make that mistake again. Labour is, well, not united but at least mostly going in the same direction, for the first time in a long time, and they have the momentum and the credibility. Nobody in May's government is untainted.
(After seeing Dugdale and co celebrating, I almost missed that they increased their vote share by all of 2.7%.)
There's no good next step for the tories and I don't think they'll be able to decide which is the least bad either.
Brown did lack charisma, but I think he was in politics for the right reasons and cared about society. Unlike May. Brown didn't have the PR skills for modern politics, he was more suited to a previous era, perhaps a few decades earlier.
Agreed - I was no fan of Brown, but he had different (better) motivations to May.
indeed i think his heart was in the right place and his moral compass from his clergy parent helped his moral compass more than hers.
Another thing they share in common and both were controlling
Open Democracy has a pretty insightful run down on the history of the DUP. Complete with historical ties to that Bastian of race relations, Enoch Powell and campaign funding tied to Saudi intelligence.
But don't worry because it will be "in the national interest to provide certainty and keep the country safe"
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/so-who-are-dup
surely of the tory MPs, there must be a significant number who are aghast at the deal with the DUP, Mays staggering Hubris, and the ramifications of NI instability and Brexit **** up.
push her out, install a leader with no brexit/corbyn slagging smears, and reach out for some quality bipartisan politics for the good of the country.
Stephen Fry?Verified account @stephenfry
Surprised to find that I feel almost sorry for her. Imagine having power, yet no shred of authority, dignity or respect. Faintly pathetic.
Murdoch is out to get her big time
http://news.sky.com/story/matter-of-time-before-theresa-mays-minority-government-crumbles-10910572
loving that he left the Times election party in a rage after seeing the exit poll
DrJ I did pick the winner just not the margin I (and all the commentators) thought
You did indeed - well done. Now - why don't you tell us again that theory as to why the polls all under-predicted May's performance?
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well the message from rupert is pretty clear
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On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot's motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen's speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.Do you think she cares at all about the NI peace deal? It seems at this point she is quite happy to be remembered as the shittest PM ever so long as she gets to feel powerful for a bit longer - or maybe her hubris is such that she simply doesn't realise what everybody thinks of her (I see parallels with Facha).
Lots of interesting insights into her character there - known her personally for a long time have you?
No 10 this afternoon, her voice tinged with hysteria made me worry that our PM is quite unwell.
This but I'm not sure what the options are.
So first she's announced an alliance with the DUP, and then this weekend she's entering into talks with them? Bodes well for Brexit with that negotiating nous.
Tweet from Robert Preston:
Senior Tory MP: "We all fing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally fed us".
So first she's announced an alliance with the DUP, and then this weekend she's entering into talks with them? Bodes well for Brexit with that negotiating nous.
+many
Gives her advisers time to google their policies, I suppose. And hopefully work out the ramifications of screwing up the peace process in NI for short term Parliamentary gain.
his moral compass from his clergy parent helped his moral compass more than hers.
Wow! One of the STW uber-atheists showing that sometimes religion can be a positive thing! What next?
Trying to hard there fella - i thought we were all about rapprochement of late.
Turns to him the other cheek
i thought we were all about rapprochement of late.
Just keeping you on your toes.
😀Turns to him the other cheek
Anyone else have to google rapprochement?
Sounded a bit foreign so I didn't bother. Bloody Europhiles.
[quote=bearnecessities ]Anyone else have to google rapprochement?
yes, for the spelling - True dat
I think Murdoch wants may gone sooner rather than later, he doesn't tolerate failure in his pet politicians
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So Borris apparently trying to get her out too, he's having a lot of 'conversations'
My bet is tomorrow's papers will be all about Johnson, priming the nation for his ascension, I mean he can't balls it up as badly as Cameron or May.....
I want to place a bet on Boris as leader and Boris not doing Brexit...The double whammy. Not sure Boris helps the Tories in the long run but the dearth of talent * is such that he seems to be all they have.
He is a Trump type character and so open to opportunistic politician posh boy attacks that he is the perfect opponent for Corbyn who clearly has principles and not privileges
* The national unity thread made me think there are very few competent politicians in the house these day
Very few big characters be it Healey or Heseltine - there are hardly any big hitters there - not a party political point.
My bet is tomorrow's papers will be all about Johnson, priming the nation for his ascension, I mean he can't balls it up as badly as Cameron or May.....
If he does he won't be the next leader, the conservatives don't reward a Brutus
* The national unity thread made me think there are very few competent politicians in the house these day
Very few big characters be it Healey or Heseltine - there are hardly any big hitters there - not a party political point.
I think both parties are going to have to skip a generation, the current "leaders in waiting" on both sides are poor or tainted. Needs to be someone who has had a real job not a policy wonk, advisor, or aide, and who has a proper hinterland and can engage with people
Needs to be someone who has had a real job
What like a banker a lawyer or a plumber?
sooner is the blunder the tories (well cameron) made after they(he) lost the eu vote. From a tory pov it should be the eton boys taking the flak and doing the deal or dropping the idea altogether then you parachute in the new leader who has none of the "whiff". Doing it this way they could well have 4 leaders in 3 years 😆
Beeb is reporting that Maybot has been told to sack her two closest advisors (Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill) or face a leadership challenge
A Cabinet source said that the Prime Minister must clear out the "cabal at the top" which allowed "a terrorist sympathiser to get within an inch of Downing Street".
Oh the irony!
Oh the lies!
fify
Beeb is reporting that Maybot has been told to sack her two closest advisors (Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill) or face a leadership challenge
Nick Timothy just resigned
Edit - Hill has gone as well apparently
So when is May calling it a day, as for NT resignation statement, working to unite the country....
Yes that is why she has got into bed with a bunch of terrorist sympathisers!
What is surprising is the increasingly apparent extent of how bad May's poltical judgement has been and continues to be. Normally politicians don't have careers as long as hers, and especially get to become PM, without very good antennae. It now looks as if she was only able to become PM because of a very specific set of circumstances where it almost fell into her lap, and she largely needed to do nothing as one by one Cameron, Gove, Johnson and Leadsom etc. took themselves out of the picture by their own mistakes. She did not have to actively campaign for the party leadership in a typical full on leadership contest while in opposition and then fight a general election to become PM.
It looks to me like her very quick announcement of a deal with the DUP was born out of similar bad judgement and panic to fill a vacuum. When Gordon Brown lost the 2010 election, he waited it out in Downing Street in silence until the Conservatives and Lib Dems had agreed a deal. Obviously the situation now is different because the Conservatives are still the largest party and so are expected to form a government, but the mark of a good politician/statesman in May's shoes in that situation would be to consult widely and take as much time as they possibly can to consider their options and the likely consequences.
Instead, May seems to have been panicked into agreeing a deal very quickly with the DUP and announcing it very quickly. Possibly she did this out of a sense of responsibility as PM/leader to act and stop the uncertainty causing damage to financial markets and the Pound etc., and possibly she felt she needed to make an announcement to stop the speculation about Labour forming a government with the other parties (the suggestions from Labour that they could form a government look like good political skills: they know they could not form a stable government, but it may have rattled May and been an added prompt to act unnecessarily quickly to stop the speculation).
The deal with the DUP itself, and the manner/hurry of its making, looks like it may be almost as big an error as calling the election. It seems she has announced the deal without actually having agreed the key terms of the deal with the DUP (in complete contrast to the negotiations between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems after the 2010 election, when the deal was only announced after the terms had been hammered out in fine detail). The DUP will want its pound of flesh, and I suspect that many Conservative MPs and the UK electorate will find the sweeteners to the DUP to be at best repugnant (extra money for Northern Ireland - say £400M, which would nicely cover the budget shortfall due to the RHI scandal) and at worst unacceptable (damage to the Good Friday agreement and harming the UK Government's role as honest broker in NI, or any influence whatsoever over government policies affecting the rest of the UK).
I suspect that May's premiership is now moving into just managing crises from day to day. Her current overriding priority is to pass the Queen's Speech. I can't help thinking that her deal with the DUP to achieve that, will add to the problems that she will rapidly face thereafter, but possibly she is planning to fall on her sword very soon, and so only cares about getting the Queen's Speech through.
If they cannot pass the Queen's Speech, then the Conservatives and the country will be in a really big mess, and I imagine there would have to be another GE within possibly as little as a couple of months. That is the last thing the Conservatives want, since Corbyn and Labour would probably do even better, and possibly even win, and the Conservatives need time to organise a change of leadership and a honeymoon period for the new leader in the opinion polls when they would be most likely to call an election. For that reason I suspect the Conservatives may well try and avoid a leadership contest, in order to be able to appoint a new leader unopposed as quickly as possible. A lengthy drawn out leadership contest would be risky, since the longer it takes, the more likelihood that things will be unravelling in Parliament and Brexit negotiations etc. while the contest is underway, and that will make the Conservatives look very bad (fiddling having a leadership contest while Rome is burning).
this 'deal' with the DUP was probably a quick phone call "...would you?" and obviously the DUP bit her hand off, they're only now discussing it. She has naively (because as we know she has virtually no political savvy beyond power at all cost), made a 'lets get to work' speech as if it's all business as usual and marched into Number 10 to apparent 'raptuous applause' like some great savior.
She's delusional, with breath taking arrogance and hubris she is willfully ignoring everyone on this ridiculous idea that she alone can take this country through one of its most challenging economic and political times.
The tories and May have attempted to exploit brexit and fear and mistakenly taken it as a mandate to lurch to the right and secure themselves decades of power, destroying the opposition in the process with a snap election.
Half the people may have decided, but you cannot ignore the other half. We must now all work together to make it the best possible outcome for the country, despite her saying otherwise she has failed to foster that. We need visionary strong leadership to build a bipartisan consensus that sends our absolute best team into the negotiations.
Good analysis apart from the being surprised at their incompetence part.
To summarise . She is ****ing crap and having half the country hate you is in no way a success.
**** off you evil , hateful bitch.
I hope she is sitting on the toilet bawling her ****ing eyes out.
Looks like the knives are out for may within the tory party..
Like a pack of hyenas they prey on the weak and vulnerable, even their own.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-result-theresa-may-conservative-party-members-resign-tory-leader-prime-minister-no-majority-a7783281.html ]linky linky [/url]
All the MPs should line up in parliament stripped of party status. Two should be picked at random and made to pick teams one at a time like a playground football game. Once we have enough for a cabinet and a shadow cabinet the team picking can stop. Everyone not picked can sit on any benches they want and have a free vote issue by issue. This can continue till the end of the parliament and until brexit has completed.
As daft as it might sound, it's not as daft as the current situation.
How many Tory voters would have not voted Tory if they had known a deal with the DUP was how Maybot was going to have a last gasp crack at staying in no10....i wonder?
Bad Friday Agreement
Well she's thrown her advisors under the bus, will buy her some time, must be feeling isolated now.
Wonder how much power she has left, whether she's just obeying the BSDs in the Tory party
whether she's just obeying the BSDs in the Tory party
BSD?
Berkeley Software Distribution?
I love the idea, but it seems a bit unlikely. She strikes me more as a Windows 98 kind of person.
May was accused of taking the electorate for granted, I think she's now taking a lot of traditional conservative voters for granted. As desperate as they might be to block Corbyn and/or push for brexit, they are not as desperate as May.
She may have crossed a line here, the hypocrisy is stunning and I don't think even the DM etc can spin this one to their readers, older voters know what the DUP represent and their links to terror, for younger voters there's google.
mickmcd - MemberHow many Tory voters would have not voted Tory if they had known a deal with the DUP was how Maybot was going to have a last gasp crack at staying in no10....i wonder?
A hell of a lot of the scottish switchers, that's for sure. A lot of them wouldn't have voted tory if they'd known it's mean she could make a government, let alone this government.
We are now a joke, May launched into her GE, much to the annoyance of the EU, at the worst possible time, she looks weak and the mandate for her Brexit has evaporated,So whens the next election?
What was it the Leavers kept saying about not continually having referendums until you get the result you want? (-:
Since the referendum, it's been stalling tactic after stalling tactic. The first thing she did after the referendum was launch into a pointless court battle trying to overturn something that was clearly enshrined in law, that parliament has to set legislation and not the government alone. Quite what the point of this was I don't know, when after it was all over the opposition went "yeah, ok then" anyway. (Also, I'd love to know how much all that cost, anyone know?)
Then they triggered A50 with a plan written on the back of an envelope like the kid who's forgotten his homework and knocked something out during playtime that morning, went to the EU with a list of demands that the EU, quite rightly, laughed in her face at. And then, what, nothing? Until just now where she decides, "let's have an election!" Tick tock, tick tock.
And so now we have a hung parliament. Something that surely they must've seen coming at least as a possible outcome, if not likely? Yet more faff, trying to find a couple of mates to make up numbers on their football team when no-one else really wants to play apart from that kid who keeps picking his nose and smells of wee. You know, the one who's likely to intentionally kick the ball into the neighbour's garden for a laugh.
Now they're staring down the barrel of a potential leadership challenge; maybe another general election; after that who knows, it's probably time for another referendum.
At this rate the clock's going to have run out on A50 before we've even started negotiations, let alone concluded them. And there's a part of me that wonders whether this heel-dragging is deliberate, and if so what the end goal is - to crash out of the EU with nothing, or to wake up the country to the folly of this nonsense and reject it? I hope it's the latter but I really rather think it's the former.
My mum grew up in Glasgow, she has some stories to tell of the sectarianism of the 60s, they were on the Protestant side but I can still remember the family, including my bigoted grandfather laughing at Robbie Coltrane.
I think plenty of people in Scotland know what the DUP are about, can't see anyone wanting to be associated with that.
No wonder Davidson has moved so quickly to distance herself
No wonder Davidson has moved so quickly to distance herself
Her tweet response to the Telegraph article I linked to earlier today is really rather eloquent! 😉
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/873296157270827009
This made me laugh. From an [url= https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-result-theresa-may-conservative-party-members-resign-tory-leader-prime-minister-no-majority-a7783281.html ]Independent[/url] article saying her own MPs want her gone:
[i]Asked if there were phone calls being made between Tories about the next leader, Mr Vaizey told the BBC: “That’s so 20th century. It’s all on WhatsApp. Lots of MPs are in lots of different groups."[/i]
So *that's* why she wants to do away with end-to-end encryption...!
Oddly the company I work for recently designated whatsapp as non secure and should not have any information sent that was not public knowledge.
Not sure if it is encryption, server security or how they store their information but I would hope after all the phone hacking scandals our MPs might be more careful with their communications. Though I doubt they are...
Is it "not secure" or is it "we can't guarantee that it is secure"? Subtle but large difference.
Well she should have resigned and 100% would have under normal circumstances - but the Tories have really painted themselves into a corner now.
Can't imagine she'll be enjoying her final few months in the top job.
🙂
Asked if there were phone calls being made between Tories about the next leader, Mr Vaizey told the BBC: “That’s so 20th century. It’s all on WhatsApp. Lots of MPs are in lots of different groups."
Baronness Warsi mentioned the WhatsApp groups on the Last Leg last night.
As I understand it the DUP and SF both took seats from more centrist parties, but SF don't sit in Westminster as they are ideologically opposed to it, so there are literally empty seats in Westminster.
So what's stopping SF saying 'f--- that' and turning up at Westminster, thus cancelling out the influence of the DUP?
Is it "not secure" or is it "we can't guarantee that it is secure"? Subtle but large difference.
I think as far as the IT security guys are concerned if we can't guarantee security then the app is defined as not secure until proven otherwise.. The penalty for failure is too high.
So what's stopping SF saying 'f--- that' and turning up at Westminster, thus cancelling out the influence of the DUP?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oath_of_Allegiance_(United_Kingdom)