Trouble is TM is going to limp on then be scapegoated further down the line.
The cluster**** that is about to ensue will be memorable.
[quote=Cougar ]
we could only revoke article 50 if all the other EU member states agreed.
I'm 99% sure that's not true at all.
1%. There appears to be no mechanism to revoke A50 which doesn't involve the agreement of all 27. Though I suppose officially there isn't a mechanism to revoke it at all.
We're into realpolitik here though - as I've posted numerous times, if we want to do something which is clearly to the benefit of the EU (which revoking A50 is) then a way will be found, even if that does involve getting all 27 to agree.
Such a shame IDS is not still a front bencher as he's the only I have any confidence in to become Tory leader.
Fair comment, but he is an utter bastard.
There is no mechanism to revoke A50, that and the 2 year negotiation process was setup by the EU to intimidate people thinking of leaving. Until the Lisbon Treaty there wasn't even a process but they realised that was too risky.
The result of the election has made a hard Brexit more likely and guaranteed the negotiations will be a dogs breakfast with the possibility of another election before 2019 highly probable.
Except the guy who wrote article 50 says that it CAN be revoked .
Of course it could be.
Don't hold your breath though.
I am not , but moved to France a few weeks ago .
Nope not at all.
Its all very nice to believe in a money tree but thank god we won't have to expect it to all be true.
There is no mechanism to revoke A50
Ahh jambafact
http://metro.co.uk/2017/03/29/theres-still-a-way-article-50-could-be-revoked-6541837/
Well to be fair, it's a statement of fact. As I wrote earlier:
[quote=aracer ]Though I suppose officially there isn't a mechanism to revoke it at all.
Though I then continued:
We're into realpolitik here though - as I've posted numerous times, if we want to do something which is clearly to the benefit of the EU (which revoking A50 is) then a way will be found, even if that does involve getting all 27 to agree.
Back OT, probably she should resign.
It would be the honourable thing to do in the circumstances - which is why I don't expect that she will.
The liklihood of Brexit ever being completed has significantly reduced as a result of the election outcome. This was always the danger if there was a general election before negotiations were completed. As it is, it now looks likely that there will be yet another GE before the negotiations are completed.
The longer it goes on, the more the political landscape and public sentiment moves on from the time of the referendum, and the more the actual practicalities of Brexit become clear (especially the extent to which various groups will lose out), the harder it will be to complete the deal.
If the deal that is negotiated is itself put to the country in a referendum, then it's dead. Slogans like 'Take Back Control' and 'Let's spend £350M a week on the the NHS instead' will be replaced by a referendum dominated by hard numbers and actual costings, and the resulting impact on peoples' pockets and lives. If people stand to lose out in even a minor way, they will vote against the deal and they will not give a damn about immigration or 'control'.
The irony of this is that one of the chief proponents of Brexit, David Davis, apparently persuaded May to call an election against her own judgement. He may just have derailled Brexit.
Back OT, probably she should resign.
It would be the honourable thing to do in the circumstances - which is why I don't expect that she will.
She's a lame duck now and she would probably like to resign immediately like Cameron. She knows that she will not lead the Conservatives into the next election, and the only question is who is going to replace her. I suspect it's loyalty to her party and some of her colleagues that is compelling her to stick it out and go through the motions of what is likely to be an unpleasant remaining time as leader, giving the party a breathing space to take stock and then organise a leadership contest.
She is going to get a kicking from her MPs, PMQs will probably be a wretched experience as Labour enjoy a revival and boosted morale, and the press will tear her apart, as it always does when it scents weakness in any politician and the chance to take a big scalp. Any meetings which she attends with EU and other European leaders to discuss Brexit will be humiliating for her, because no one will be interested in what she wants or thinks: they will probably listen to her politely and then just ignore her.
Her remaining months as leader and PM will probably be a miserable experience, and she will probably want it over as soon as possible.
Wondering, if the power of the Sun and the Mail is weakening because younger none newspaper readers are coming out of the shadows.
Does it matter that the BBC, the Sun, Mail etc neglect to mention the history of the DUP. Plenty of comments on social networks. The obvious hypocrisy of attacking Corbyn and then getting into bed with anti gay, anti abortion, terrorists won't be lost on many of the electorate.
Could this just be another nail in the conservative coffin? I don't know how valid the numbers are but some i have seen have under 45ish the majority voted Labour, and once you get down to 20ish the vast majority. It is the much older cohorts that vote Tory, the ones who bluntly are dying off.
And just to add more wood to the fire, came across something on Twitter, no verification so someone would need to read the good friday agreement. It does make sense though.
The UK and Republic are both expected to be neutral, to not take sides, to not be seen to interfere in the provinces power balance.
By siding with the DUP the Tory party has effectively torn up the GF agreement and are no longer neutral.
jambalaya - MemberA stabd off is if anything more likely
That's the traditional way to settle tory leadership issues
I'm amazed that Tory supporters aren't absolutely livid now, Teresa May is delusional, I mean Nick Clegg has shown more contrition in the last few hours
IMO Yes, teaming up with the DUP is such a back word step, it like a last clutch onto her position by jumping in bed with a party which has quite extreme views on peoples rights for a party of modern times.
Plus there is a bit of double standards there with the whole Corbyn and his IRA mates, she was quick to team up with a party which have/had connections to the UR to stay ahead.
Jonnyboi oh I think they are livid, small but workable majority turned into a shaky minority government. May is finished its just a matter of when, Boris, Davies, Rudd are all circling. She won't be allowed to lead the party into another election which is probably 1 or 2 years at most away.
EU's negotiating stance was to try and string things out with the "Brexit Bill" conversation but thats totally dead now. Tories will never agree any figure as they know thats an election loser so decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.
Breaking my code of not taking part in political threads...
Her eyes give away her fear and doubt. It wasn't there before the result.
Shitbag...
Is it true this coalition contravenes the Good Friday agreement?
I don't think the following will be forgotten by the younger voters soon..
Most realise the murdoch factor and don't pay any attention whatsoever to purile tabloids.
May: "don't vote Labour. You'll get a coalition! With a terrorist sympathiser!" Also May: *goes into coalition with terrorist sympathisers*
Major sh1t storm if it does....
Is it true this coalition contravenes the Good Friday agreement?
Well it is perhaps questionable that the government should be in a position of possible favouritism with one of the major players in NI politics with respect to the peace agreement and brokering power sharing.
Does it matter that the BBC, the Sun, Mail etc neglect to mention the history of the DUP. Plenty of comments on social networks. The obvious hypocrisy of attacking Corbyn and then getting into bed with anti gay, anti abortion, terrorists won't be lost on many of the electorate.
Completely agree, I don't think the Tories understand just how much damage their alliance with the DUP is going to do to their paper thin credibility with younger voters
By siding with the DUP the Tory party has effectively torn up the GF agreement and are no longer neutral.
Yes absolutely, it won't just be the reputation of the Tories that is damaged by this,
[quote=jambalaya ]Boris, Davies, Rudd are all circling.
Boris is circling, the other two are busted. I'm wondering what DD has on her that he's still in the cabinet, whilst AR needs to find a seat where she's likely to still be an MP after the next election (if it wasn't for that, she seems the most credible option).
decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.
You may well be right on the first part, the second part depends on who wins the election, and whether those negotiating for the EU consider it worth extending the timetable to get a better deal for the EU (hint: I doubt they'll feel that way about the Tories).
As said before, Rudd is never going to be an option with such a tiny minority, Davis reputation is ruined - his mad gamble on an early ge was obviously to give himself a cushion because he knew the negotiations were gonna be a shitshow way beyond his abilities
slowoldman - MemberWell it is perhaps questionable that the government should be in a position of possible favouritism with one of the major players in NI politics with respect to the peace agreement and brokering power sharing.
Hands up everyone who remembers what happened last time
Tories will never agree any figure as they know thats an election loser so decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.
Slightly comical that jamba is back predicting away, having just got everything about the election completely and utterly wrong. Crack on, jamba!
Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE, that was May all the way. Davies has a strong following in the party his biggest threat for the leadership is Boris.
Result gives Davies some interesting options, he can be as bold as he likes now, if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won't agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50
DrJ I did pick the winner just not the margin I (and all the commentators) thought 8)
[quote=jambalaya ]Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE, that was May all the way.
Not what is being reported.
if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won't agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50
Yay, will of the people. Though see my comments above regarding EU attitude to a UK team willing to negotiate rather than demand.
and it begins :
still time to edit your post Jambalaya .
i said the tories would win with a smaller majority than they expected so technically i was actually more correct on this than you 8) and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well 😉
Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE
According to Andrew Neil last night he was the man who persuaded May
Result gives Davies some interesting options,
He was all about concessions last night
He's looked rabbit in the headlights for a while now as the reality of Brexit has dawned on him
and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well
😀
Another reason why this election has significantly reduced the likelihood of Brexit actually happening, is the collapse of the UKIP vote.
A majority of the Conservative MPs did not support Brexit, and the referendum only happened because of the votes that UKIP was getting at the expense of the Conservatives and threatening the seats of some of their MPs.
If, as appears possible, the main focus of politics in Parliament and the UK is moving back to a traditional Conservative/Labour (Left/Right) battle with all eyes on an early election, and UKIP are a much weaker force and no longer able to threaten to split the right wing vote in Conservative constituencies, then the majority of Conservative MPs will not be interested in actively pushing for progress in Brexit negotiations: all they will care about is winning their own seats and getting a majority in the next election.
I doubt that they would elect David Davis as leader, precisely because he is a conviction politician who would stick by his beliefs and principles regardless of the political cost to himself, his party or fellow MPs. The Conservative MPs don't want a conviction politician who would be willing to risk their seats and overall victory to pursue a Brexit, when they themselves either do not believe in it or are at best lukewarm: they want a political star, a proven vote winner who will help them get re-elected.
That means Boris. And Boris as leader is probably the worst hope for those who support Brexit. If Boris perceives continuing with Brexit is harmful to him and his political ambitions, he will do a 180 degree turn and jettison it, and he is probably the one politician who has the political skills and charisma to get away with saying to the electorate that he tried, but it just wasn't possible, and now we need to forget Brexit and focus on the future.
Slowster you missed your calling
Thanks for the advice earlier
We're in for very interesting times.
I still don't understand Theresa May's folly in cosying up to the DUP and risking destruction of the Northern Ireland peace deal. It's apparent that Ruth Davidson of the Tories is pretty livid about this. Tory infighting can be breathtakingly destructive, remember that is exactly the reason why we ended up with a referendum whereby pretty much no-one in the country had access to the full facts before making a decision.
Meanwhile, May is back at Downing Street with the same tired cabinet, the same message, the same priorities and a weakened hand. She's learned nothing about this election and unless she finds a way to reach out to the various hostile factions in her own party, she's in deep trouble. The problem for May is that her leadership style is isolated and authoritarian, not exactly the qualities required right now.
in this mad world Boris not negotiating Brexit makes perfect sense I no longer fear him.
For the second time today, Slowster is on the money.
But I wouldn't discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren't tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Jezza looks to have united a skeptical Labour Party and some of their big guns who've sat on the fence until now look to be negotiating for shadow cabinet posts.
But I wouldn't discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren't tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.
I'd say Rudd is damaged goods as well: She didn't exactly come out of the campaign well, and it showed in her near defeat.
As fars as I can see: Corbyn is the only one who can unite the country, at the moment.
[quote=PJM1974 ]I still don't understand Theresa May's folly in cosying up to the DUP and risking destruction of the Northern Ireland peace deal.
On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot's motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen's speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.
Do you think she cares at all about the NI peace deal? It seems at this point she is quite happy to be remembered as the shittest PM ever so long as she gets to feel powerful for a bit longer - or maybe her hubris is such that she simply doesn't realise what everybody thinks of her (I see parallels with Facha).
On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot's motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen's speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.
@Aracer, your explanation is indeed the simplest and most logical. It's also the most potentially dangerous of the UK. Listening to a tired, aged May make her speech outside No 10 this afternoon, her voice tinged with hysteria made me worry that our PM is quite unwell.
Is it just me but I can't see that the Tory/DUP coalition is going to last?
Firstly it jeopardises the NI peace process, in the middle of a negotiation to rebuild powersharing in stormont
the Good Friday agreement is probably one of the greatest UK political achievements of my lifetime, wtf !
Secondly the DUP are about as toxic as it gets, re terrorism, evolution, creationism, abortion, gay rights... Ask Ruth Davidson
They've still got a tiny majority- 2 seats!, no consensus on Brexit among other things, several of her MPs were only elected on the tiniest of majorities, they will be very aware of what they are voting on and how it plays in their constituencies
We are now a joke, May launched into her GE, much to the annoyance of the EU, at the worst possible time, she looks weak and the mandate for her Brexit has evaporated,
So whens the next election?
