Just like here, economic growth hasn't necessarily led to wage growth, although it has led to wealth redistribution upwards, as usual.
This. I see a lot of wailing from the usual suspects on here and in the media about the chaos Trump is unleashing for what they think is no real reason but at the end of the day globalisation has been a disaster for working class and many middle class Americans who don't work in the financial or services sectors. They voted to get their manufacturing jobs back and Trump is attempting to make that happen (even if it is chaotic and probably self-defeating). Other countries might want to consider doing the same if they don't want mass poverty and idleness to be the overriding feature of their economies.
If all countries attempt to make everything at home, put punitive tariffs on all imports, and stop trading, the worldwide depression that will follow will make the memory of recent hard years feel like a fairy tale in comparison for those of us in the lower income brackets.
This doesn't end well for anyone does it? I can't wrap my head around it at all. I can't remember this much doom and gloom around the economy, COVID aside.
It’s the lack of agency that makes it so grim. There is nothing anyone outside the USA, and very few within it, can do about much of this.
Looking forward to every country duplicating manufacturing processes and service industries. Bigly win for the planet.
Even better when the cretins in charge (and the anti global trade cretins) start making (land) grabs for resources that they need to be "independent".
If all countries attempt to make everything at home
There is a lot of middle ground between 'everything made at home' and 'everything made in China/Taiwan'. Hundreds of millions of workers across the west who had comfortable lives lost their jobs, incomes and self-respect at the altar of globalised capitalism and deregulated markets. The UK had it's rebellion in the form of brexit, now the US are having theirs.
There was an alternative of course, which was regulated markets, redistributive taxation, using the power of government owned fiat currencies to invest in economies, and lower overrall consumption. But all that was too radical even for politicians and voters who claim to be progressive or left wing (as demonstrated in the UK govt threads).
The only winners out of this shitshow are bankers, financiers, major shareholders, executives of large companies and billionaire oligarchs. That's where the 'status quo' and not rocking the boat got us, and now we're suffering the results of our collective myopia.
Biden did more to grow the American economy
But he wasn't on TV every day saying that was what he was doing, largely because he filled his time actually doing the work of being president. So while he wasn't all over TV 'saying' rather than 'doing' Trump was all over TV giving his opinion of what Biden was doing.
So far during this term theres only been one day since inauguration where Trump hasn't been on TV so there is far, far more show than do. His fancy score board / tariffs league table is very telegenic but no homework has been done. However while the democrats continues to play the 'while your enemy is making a mistake don't interrupt them' game his is the only voice and only account as to whether his actions are necessary or successful.
In fact unemployment and poverty all fell during his first term and wages rose in real terms.
It hard to know what to credit or blame Trump for in his first term, because his tenure was typified largely by him being blocked by his own party in the two houses, and being prevented and distracted from doing most of what he wanted to to by his own Whitehouse staff, so a lot of his ideas never got out of the Oval Office until we got to read about them in memoirs. So whatever happened to the economy, certainly up until covid, could largely be down to Trumps hands largely being kept off the levers he wanted to pull and be due to what he didn't manage to do, rather than what he wanted to do
But he wasn't on TV every day saying that was what he was doing, largely because he filled his time actually doing the work of being president. So while he wasn't all over TV 'saying' rather than 'doing' Trump was all over TV giving his opinion of what Biden was doing.
Yeah, one thing that Harris could have been doing - gave the impression of doing **** all else
The UK had it's rebellion in the form of brexit, now the US are having theirs.
Left the billionaires quaking. Both voting to empower the rich and make the rest poorer, while also eroding their rights that protect them from the rich. Slow hand clap.
Trump's very good at shifting the blame onto others and a compliant press and some desperate and naive voters will always help him get away with it, so definitely similar to Farage & Brexit
anyway, some countries are already signaling they will roll over to Trump and look for concessions, he will be bothered about the stock markets sliding, but he will see those countries and argue things are working and many of his fans will buy it, but if prices start rising he will feel the heat
Which means he will have to go big on tax cuts, more austerity and relaxing regulations
Hundreds of millions of workers across the west who had comfortable lives lost their jobs, incomes and self-respect at the altar of globalised capitalism and deregulated markets
Yes, but it happened slowly, and they found other jobs. Before people start romanticising great British industry, watch that video that went around a while back about bikes being made in a factory in the UK. They make everything from tubes to frames to bottom brackets and rims. All by hand. Seems like a massive waste of effort now when a gigantic factory in China is churning out thousands of identical bottom brackets an hour or fully built wheels are rolling off a machine. These machines and factories are expensive and are only worth it because they make so many, and they only make that many because they are shipped to every country in the world. We've become used to having decently shreddable FS MTBs for two grand - that would disappear if global trade went away.
some desperate and naive voters will always help him get away with it
I am definitely no fan of Trump but "desperate and naive voter"? Oh how very stw!
American voters to a large degree voted in the last US presidential election fully aware of Trump's first term in office. Here is just one aspect of his first term :
Poverty:
The official poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from 11.8 percent in 2018. This is the fifth consecutive annual decline in poverty. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 4.3 percentage points, from 14.8 percent to 10.5 percent
The 2019 poverty rate of 10.5 percent is the lowest rate observed since estimates were initially published in 1959
In 2019, there were 34.0 million people in poverty, approximately 4.2 million fewer people than 2018
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html
Now contrast that with what is happening now in the UK under Starmer :
At least 10,000 children have fallen into poverty under Labour, analysis finds
So a right-wing demagogue in the United States oversees a significant and historic fall in poverty levels whilst in the UK after 14 years of Tory rule "desperate and naive voters" elect a Labour government which almost immediately increases poverty.
I reckon that we should perhaps reign in the self-righteousness as we mock and ridicule the alleged stupidity of American voters.
Resource deals now being made with the DRC... will we be seeing US troops on the ground protecting them and possibly other points of interest what with the other actors in the areas?
there really isn't anything you can't make about starmer ernie!
that aside I said desperate as inflation was the main driver of people turning to Trump, but naive if they thought his tariff plans wouldn't be inflationary
there really isn't anything you can't make about starmer ernie!
What, you want me to ignore the fact that our Prime Minister is pushing up levels of poverty in the UK whilst you contemptuously dismiss the alleged naivety and gullibility of American voters?
Yeah, I guess you probably do! 😂
Trust me to piss on your chips as you delight in mocking and ridiculing Americans/voters in general 🤪
What, you want me to ignore the fact that our Prime Minister is pushing up levels of poverty in the UK
On a Donald Trump thread yes, please.
Here's a newer version of Ernie's numbers, to mid-2023. I'd say that it shows that long gaps between recessions see falls in poverty numbers, essentially regardless of who's in power. Whether you can always say that recessions are due to governments I dunno (last little one was during early COVID) but I'm not at all sure that recoveries are
I don't think the UK gov thread was getting enough contributors, so it's merging into this one.
The UK had it's rebellion in the form of brexit
which has done a great job for the common man
now the US are having theirs.
and I suppose this will be a similar success.
Let's be honest, un-managed capitalism helps only those who don't need help.
Like Brexit, Trump is painting other countries as the “enemy” to be defeated and diminished. The claims that doing so will benefit his own country don’t need to be true (in my mind they are not)… the process is about gaining power to benefit a few spivs at the expense of everyone else. If you disagree, you are an enemy of the people, an enemy of the country. The more enemies the better the play. And the USA public are being played. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are stupid. It means they are being conned.
Here's a newer version of Ernie's numbers
My numbers? The only figures I have provided were those of the BBC and the US Census Bureau, did you mean those?
I have never researched poverty in the United States but I am fairly comfortable accepting figures offered by the BBC and the US Census Bureau.
What, you want me to ignore the fact that our Prime Minister is pushing up levels of poverty in the UK
On a Donald Trump thread yes, please.
Why? Apparently making a comparison with the UK is perfectly acceptable, as the endless references to Brexit testify. Eg :
Like Brexit, Trump is .......
And if you are going to describe US voters as, quote, "desperate and naive" then it has to relative to other voters.
Strange the US is likely to have a record year for manufacturing output. It's not the globalisation that's robbing Americans of manufacturing jobs it's robots and automation. The Donald has just taxed the ass off Americans, and sent the US economy into free fall. He can't hold this position long, unemployment for Gov workers and manufacturing will be very uncomfortable. He doesn't understand that the likes of Apple etc. Won't build a plant that has Americans "assembling" iphones.
It's not the globalisation that's robbing Americans of manufacturing jobs it's robots and automation
Its not even like he’s fighting the last war. He’s trying to fight one that was over in 1979. And who exactly was it… which particular country was it…. that championed globalisation and basically forced it on the rest of the world?
Hmmmmmm
Maybe Trump should make all the firms that made billions out of shifting their production to the ‘export processing zones’ in Myanmar, Taiwan and China pay reparations?
Its not like this wasn’t all well documented at the time
The irony of the true pioneers of globalised offshoring, like Nike, losing 3 times more of their value than their European competitors Adidas as a result of Trumps tariffs is a smallsomething to raise a slight smile in these grim times
as the endless references to Brexit testify
You can thank Dazh for that.
It’s clear what Trump is doing. It is less clear why people voted for him to do it. Many thought he wouldn’t I suppose. I hope the next decade doesn’t hit them, their families, and their communities too hard.
You can thank Dazh for that.
Why? I believe several people, including you, have referred to UK politics. And not just with references to Brexit but also direct references to Nigel Farage.
So you can mention Farage on this thread but FFS don't mention Starmer! Although if I'm honest I can see the logic there.
No one wants to talk about Starmer because frankly he has become an embarrassment. But Farage......"oh look, people vote for him because they are stupid and racist". So it's great to remind everyone.
Unfortunately, I think Trump has played a blinder.
During 2025, tarrifs get fiddled with a bit, but are effective in getting companies to move some manufacturing to the USA. If it is modern and automated manufacturing, even better.
In 2025, Ordinary Americans will be hit hard by inflation.
In 2026, Trump gives away "liberation day dividends" to citizens to keep favour. USA flexes tarriffs and relations to get cheap labour from Mexico, and cheap resources from Canada.
In 2027, with supply chains internalised in Northern America, Trump declares that he is done with protecting the world's shipping lanes. Good luck protecting the Suez canal from all those drone swarms, the USA are pulling out. Piracy booms as order in the world's oceans breaks down. Russia's post-war economy is in despair, but it has subs, and is blatantly responsible for half of the piracy but nobody can do anything about it. Trump finds it kinda funny and blames NATO somehow.
In 2028, Trump makes vassals of a few nations by offering it's Navy to protect their supplies of of vital essentials. Gets Greenland in return. Establishes a protection racket around the Panama canal.
USA is easily self sufficient for food, energy, and everything else it needs. Gives not a damn for the climate. The rest of the world is absolutely shafted.
Trump wins third term by pointing out how terrible things have become everywhere else but he alone protected the USA and made it great again.
Anyone who says "yeah but we could all have been better off if you had just never done this" gets clinically diagnosed as having Trump derangement syndrome (by now a recognised mental illness) and shipped to a prison rehabilitation center in El Salvador because it is the kindest thing to do.
🙁
I don't know if this has been posted but I had no idea that this was the way that the tariffs have been calculated, it's all down to the size of the trade deficit or surplus a country has with the United States.
I was baffled when I saw countries such as Vietnam Cambodia and Bangladesh getting hammered, now I see why. It also explains why Trump has placed a 41% tariff on the Falkland Islands which seemed weird, presumably Falkland Islanders aren't buying much American stuff.
And it turns out that the 10% tariff on the UK is because the US has a $12 billion trade surplus with the UK and it has nothing to do with the Starmer offering Trump a second state visit, or whatever other way he was attempting to appeal to his ego.
Been done a few times ^, but no matter how many times it’s reported we’ll still see dumb ****ing yank fat ****s whooping n’ hollering like they’ve been invited to an all you can eat brunch at Hooters
You can thank Dazh for that.
Oh come on you can't deny the parallels. This stuff started in 2008/9. The supposed grownups with their model of deregulated markets and finance driven capitalism resulted in banks being bailed out to the cost of trillions across the west whilst normal people saw their jobs, savings and pensions evaporate. Then they didn't learn the lessons and carried on pretty much as they did before because 'there is no alternative'. Then everyone was told that there is no money to pay for anything, and wages, public services, infrastructure and everything else went south whilst billionaires got ever richer. The UK at that point thought **** that and voted for the only change on offer, even though it was a shit one. Then the pandemic happend and funnily enough all the austerity of the past decade evaporated in a few weeks and governments spent trillions propping up jobs, businesses and other stuff like the past decade never happened. And then when western economies tried to return to business as usual the people who suffered most from the past 30 years - the US working class - decided to vote for a guy who promised to fix it all by ripping up the globalist status quo.
But no, it's all about stupid racist voters not doing what they're told! 🤦♂️
They don't appear to have done that much homework on it, however. What a surprise:
Turns out that accidentally selecting that erroneous country from a drop-down list could tank a national economy after all.
As plausible as it might be that Trump manages to get his way, wiping $2.5tn off in one day looks like Truss level genius.
In the meantime, the poorest nations that don't import much Yank goods by virtue of, I don't know, not being able to afford it maybe, are stiffed. Lovely stuff!
Hooray a Brexit benefit. Ineos grenadier will be more expensive in US because they shifted manufacturing to France instead of UK. A crumb of joy in a cesspit of misery, well it makes me happier that a Brexit and split proponent may be marginally affected.
Possibly the same for Dyson, having moved production to Malaysia (24%).
Brexiteer wins, eh.
American voters to a large degree voted in the last US presidential election fully aware of Trump's first term in office.
I think they were fully aware of how great he said his first term was, I think there's a difference between that and being fully aware of the realities of his leadership.
Another day dawns - has the disgusting orange slob done anything else overnight to keep the zone flooded? Or do we think wrecking the economies of SE Asian countries lasts more 24 hours in the cycle and his work is done for the week? Maybe he fancies a Friday on the golf course?
And there was an eminent economist on R4 last night explaining why Trump's view on tariffs is totally mistaken and drawing direct lines between the ****ish sentiments and futility behind Brexit and the ****ish sentiments and futility behind voting for Trump and his subsequent ****ish policies.
I think I'll give media a miss today - music where necessary, no news.
Happy Friday all.
Be interesting to see what stuff gets ‘dumped’ in the countries it wasn’t destined for, there could to be stuff in transit that just won’t sale when it hits its destination port, so ends up being rerouted.
MAGA caps from China, hopefully.
Possibly the same for Dyson, having moved production to Malaysia (24%).
wins, eh.
TBH it’s 24% on the cost price, I expect there’s plenty of wiggle room on 400-500 quid hairdryers.
I think if your in the market for his products a few quid extra isn’t going to stop you.
I was thinking more about his commercial products; Airblades won't be as competitive against US makes all of a sudden.
But yep, as with any luxury product, people will invariably take the hit.
This doesn't end well for anyone does it? I can't wrap my head around it at all. I can't remember this much doom and gloom around the economy, COVID aside.
Strangely, the UK shows a benefit in GDP growth if we don't retaliate. Tit-for-tat retaliation results in no change to GDP, while no retaliation results in a gain of 0.34%, which is the UK's current position
Countries that face relatively low new tariffs gain, with the UK experiencing the largest GDP increase. https://theconversation.com/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest-253320
NB, that's one measure of the economy, rather than household bills
This doesn't end well for anyone does it? I can't wrap my head around it at all
Don’t look for logic where there is none. It’s just more performative nonsense from Trump, who still seems to think he’s hosting a reality TV show. Unfortunately, unlike his first term, there’s nobody left within earshot prepared to point out his stupidity, as the none believers have all been purged
We’ll see how long it lasts as everyone’s bills go through the roof and the country goes into recession. The exact opposite of what he claimed he would do
MAGA caps from China, hopefully.
Donate them to the third world countries that are being bought by China - should cause some consternation amongst the visiting technocrats.
Then re-program the machines to produce F*** Trump merch. I think a nice EU blue would look good.
I'd buy some.
Left the billionaires quaking. Both voting to empower the rich and make the rest poorer, while also eroding their rights that protect them from the rich. Slow hand clap.
Brexit was also where the right practiced it's take-over of a developed country Govt, ignored protocols and pushed against a lack of effective Executive control along with understanding how to better manipulate media & presentation.
And while Poundshop Trump got dumped here I can't see this happening to Trump, but, he's only got so many years left which is why they're grooming Vance to be his heir. The rich backers though see the likes of Farage as the future for the UK, not anyone in the current Tory Party.
In both countries the poor and the working/middle classes are the ones suffering, and will continue.
Here's a thought, what year will it be when Ernie backs Reform - he's getting close IMO.
