also ignores all the US sales taxes which whilst I think max out at 10% or so still exist. They are also horrendously complex going down to the city level in some cases.
The US doesn't have a federal purchase tax and individual state purchase taxes vary mostly between 0% and 7% so a significant difference with the 21% VAT that the EU charges on US imports.
It’s worth watching Newsnight just to see the interview with Trumps deputy Sebastian Gorka.
No it’s not, I'm not a violent person and have never instigated a violent attack on anyone but I’d give myself a “oh…go on then” free pass for the likes of Gorka , I’d have absolutely zero qualms about going “elevator scene” on such ****s
Well stuff like cars they already make of course, and can probably ramp up fairly easily as long as they can get the components in
The components will be tariffed, that's the whole point. For example, GM and Ford build a lot of engines and transmissions in Canada for use in U.S. vehicles (the most common Ford V8 engine from the 1960s on was called the "Windsor" engine because they were made in Windsor, Ontario). Tariffs on those will add thousands to the retail cost of the vehicle and it would take years to get new factories up and running in the U.S.
The components will be tariffed, that's the whole point. For example, GM and Ford build a lot of engines and transmissions in Canada for use in U.S. vehicles (the most common Ford V8 engine from the 1960s on was called the "Windsor" engine because they were made in Windsor, Ontario). Tariffs on those will add thousands to the retail cost of the vehicle and it would take years to get new factories up and running in the U.S.
This doesn’t even include the raw materials cost for the parts that they do actually make/form there such as the panels and body shell. Imports of steel and aluminium from almost anywhere else in the world are now at 35-45% as the tariffs stack on top of one another.
Anyone claiming that IS industry will step in to fill the gap and keep the cost low is delusional. The cost of US made steel and aluminium will just increase to match the external market and thus line only the pockets of business owners like Trump and Musk.
The only way to potentially reduce the cost of manufacture would be to own the supply chain like Musk has tried to do, but guess what? Tesla’s keep increasing in price and profitability per vehicle keeps getting higher.
Funny that. The rich are the only ones who’re going to get richer from this. A closed, protectionist market in a country with the greatest inequality between rich and poor. Who’d have thought, huh?
Apols for the Nazi hellsite link, but it seems clear that someone without much grasp on economics or maths has been running amok.
https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907559189234196942
Part of me thinks that the world needs to see and understand the true extent of this administration's economic illiteracy and irrationality, but the damage will be felt, as usual, by the most vulnerable and powerless.
Not to mention penguins, and US troops serving on an otherwise unoccupied island:
https://bsky.app/profile/bradheath.bsky.social/post/3llul5ctba22v
Reports coming out of the us that trump is done with musk,I wonder what the reason will be?
They've got the headlines/soundbites of fake news already on how they cut a trillion dollars in the can, he’s not needed anymore and the doge thing was a one trick performative art, the longer it runs on the reality of how little and what real damage it is doing will out.
All this stuff is done for soundbites over the next x years so mission accomplished.
How does this difference in impact of 10% vs 20% tariffs on UK GDP stack up versus lost GDP simply by not being in the Customs Union and Single Market?
I heard a figure of 0.6% being bandied around yesterday in fearful tones. So we're shit scared of a 0.6% hit to GDP, we're scrapping around for the odd billion here and there by doing over disabled folk - yet we're willing to ignore the 4.0% boost to GDP (>£100bn) that is just sat there waiting to be had?
It's a strange old world sometimes...
So Russia and North Korea escape tarrifs. Nothing to see here
Looks like they used chatgpt to comeup with the plan. someone has tested it and recieved the same output https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v
Looks like they used chatgpt to comeup with the plan. someone has tested it and recieved the same output
We really do live in the dumbest timeline. Hopefully some of these idiots regularly consult AI before deciding whether it's safe to cross the road.
When this goes t1ts up, and it will; Trump is unlikely to be the one shouldering the fall out. He is a fat near 80 yr old man and he will likely be dead before the full ramifications are known. But there are a lot of younger people around him who will be ruined and ridiculed forever. Whilst its never nice to wish bad on others - i do hope the Trump and Musk families lose their wealth and influence to deter other billionaires from causing so much intentional harm to others for no other reason than making themselves even richer.
i do hope the Trump and Musk families lose their wealth and influence to deter other billionaires from causing so much intentional harm to others for no other reason than making themselves even richer.
Yeah, I think your hopes will be dashed.
It seems all they need to do is form a political party or movement that points the finger at easy targets (immigrants chiefly) and the plebs will join in throwing rotten fruit then vote for their own impoverishment.
It's established practice now - and has been for a decade.
So Russia and North Korea escape tarrifs. Nothing to see here
And a 10% tariff on Ukraine, which has a massive trade deficit with the US, defying the 'logic' Trump has used to justify tariffs elsewhere.
Clear as day, isn't it?
then vote for their own impoverishment.
You do realise that during Trump's first presidential term the US economy actually did quite well, until the global pandemic, don't you? Both unemployment and poverty fell during Trump's first term to levels lower than they had been during Barack Obama's presidency.
Now his second term might prove to be very different, Trump is after all very unpredictable, but there is no evidence that US voters could have necessarily expected greater impoverishment under Trump, on the contrary.
Indeed all the evidence is that what clinched the presidential election for Trump was that voters felt more impoverished after 4 years of the Biden administration than they had been under Trump.
Sorry if these been covered already, b
ut does this mean that iPhones, etc (that are all made in China) will now be significantly more expensive to Americans (Apples biggest market for their phone)?
Interesting way to endear yourself to your voters..... Take away some of their choices regarding what they buy in life!
there is no evidence that US voters could have necessarily expected greater impoverishment under Trump, on the contrary.
And yet anyone with a plurality of brain cells managed to predict what was going to happen under Trump 2.0/Project 25.
And when they're governing by ChatGPT is it any surprise?
On car manufacturing: I heard on R4 that they need to increase US car manufacturing 75% to meet demand displaced by tariffs. Not an overnight thing, and requiring investment in a nervous recession-poised economy. Components and aluminium from Canada - supply chain is so interweaved that components cross border multiple times to make a vehicle. Raw materials - Canada has hydro-power aluminium smelter which reduced raw material cost for components. Moving to US will up costs further, and again need to build capacity.
On Starmer and proof of begging: multiple news stories this week on him having calls with Trump specifically on Tariffs. Strategic and soft engagement with him isn't a bad tactic in the current situation, as sickening as it is to watch. 10% won't feel like a win but it could be worse, especially as it's partly meant as a starting point for trade negotiations. The alternative of telling him to eff off and deploying knee-jerk tactics won't get us anywhere. It's the right diplomatic strategy for the situation. I'm a realist not a Starmerite btw!
Bizarre tariffs: as reported, random uninhabited islands with only penguins, have had swingeing tariffs imposed. Those poor penguins supposedly trying to export electronic goods...? I think that exemplifies in microcosm the whole crazy show.
So Russia and North Korea escape tarrifs. Nothing to see here
The US has trade sanctions against both countries so theres not much point on putting tariffs against trade that has been banned.
On car manufacturing: I heard on R4 that they need to increase US car manufacturing 75% to meet demand displaced by tariffs. Not an overnight thing, and requiring investment in a nervous recession-poised economy.
Not least it requires inward investment as of course the vehicles being imported are the makes and models US customers want. It's not just a case of making more 'American' cars if the cars people would buy aren't American makes and models.Theres no point US brands building more factories to make the cars US buyers aren't buying if what they want is Hyundais, Toyotas and Rangerovers.
Similarly if there are reciprocal tariffs thats going to effect the cars that are being exported and that might end up driving some existing manufacturers out of the country - we say we don't really buy US cars - and we don't buy Lincolns and Hummers - but if you drive a BMW X3, good chance it was built in the US - BMW is the US's biggest automotive exporter.
And yet anyone with a plurality of brain cells managed to predict what was going to happen under Trump 2.0/Project 25.
Absolutely not. Trump's unpredictability is legendary. Provide me with links pre Trump 2.0 which predicted everything that Trump has done since the start of his second term.
Presumably finding people with "plurality of brain cells" who predicted everything won't be difficult.
So Russia and North Korea escape tarrifs. Nothing to see here
The US has trade sanctions against both countries so theres not much point on putting tariffs against trade that has been banned.
Nothing from North Korea can be legally imported into the United States without special authority, which is extremely unlikely to be granted, so yes it would be strange to apply a trade tariff.
The United States cannot however have a total ban on imports from Russia but Trump is threatening secondary tariffs on countries which trade with Russia.
There are no tariffs placed on Cuba either. Trump is no friend of Cuba.
Indeed all the evidence is that what clinched the presidential election for Trump was that voters felt more impoverished after 4 years of the Biden administration than they had been under Trump.
And they were wrong, as the USA economy improved during Bidens Presidency.
Sorry if these been covered already, b
ut does this mean that iPhones, etc (that are all made in China) will now be significantly more expensive to Americans (Apples biggest market for their phone)?
yes and no. Yes they will incur the tariff (I think Chinese imports already had a 20%,tariff but increase to 54%) but based on the customs value of the import/export not the retail price of the phone. So let’s assume a phone costs $1000 in the Apple Store, Apple are perhaps importing that to the US for $250 (a guess) - the tariff applies on the $250 not the 1000. Ie the cost of making an iPhone just increases from $300 to $392. Now Apple have a choice swallow the cost or pass it on. For someone with apples margins who sell on perceived value not cost plus that may not be a simple decision - and will depend what the competition does. Of course what trump says will happen is that Apple will open assembly lines in the US, but even if they did they will still import the components, screens etc all of which will have tariffs, then they will pay US workers more to assemble phones. This is likely more expensive in total - say Apple can import the components for $150 it will still be $231 before you’ve assembled them, so unless labour is cheaper than China it will cost more. The only way it could possibly work out better is if they transfer the entire supply chain to the US - that’s probably a decades work (who would invest in that with the uncertainty that someone else comes in and reverses the tariffs), and the US just doesn’t have enough people with the right skills to make everything needed!
so yes, you can expect Apple and every other complex product to be lobbying to get this reversed. And tariffs aren’t like VAT where a company can deduct its inputs from its outputs - so I think what this means is that for products where sub assemblies are made in asia, brought to us for assembly/configuration/etc then shipped back out of the US - they will pay the tariff on that (and then the local market tariff for an import). The logical decision there is to set up final build/configuration facilities in Europe or Canada so the goods never touch US soil… hurting the US Exports. There may be ways around that but I certainly know of one US specialist telecoms/networking business who are considering moving jobs out of the US for this reason.
On car manufacturing: I heard on R4 that they need to increase US car manufacturing 75% to meet demand displaced by tariffs. Not an overnight thing, and requiring investment in a nervous recession-poised economy.
Does that assume all imports switch or some economists guess how buyers of imports respond? Does it assume no exports are harmed by reciprocal tariffs?
75% sounds a lot but it depends if the factories just need to hire more staff (adding an extra shift) or they actually need to build new factories.
i don’t know how many “US” cars are actually built entirely in the US, from metal coming out of a smelter to a car arriving on your driveway. There’s a lot of electronics and sensors - they are probably not made in the US. The tariffs mean those components just got more expensive too - so even US car build costs likely went up!
Provide me with links pre Trump 2.0 which predicted everything that Trump has done since the start of his second term.
Presumably finding people with "plurality of brain cells" who predicted everything won't be difficult.
https://www.project2025.observer/
Well for starters here's how he's getting on with the Project 2025 goals. The Project 2025 goals that everyone not eating Trump's shit were warning about for months before the election.
It's not even as though predictions were needed. He said it loud what he was going to do, and he's doing it. He's consistently stated he believes that what are actually standard international trading relations are "unfair" to the US - because he has a profound and fundamental misunderstanding about how trade works - and he's consistently messaged about tariffs as a means of restoring what he thinks is an imbalance. All of this he stated well before his first presidency.
And economists are almost universally in agreement that tariffs hurt economic growth and economic welfare.
It's not like I need to hunt down this information, it's all out there in the open. If you refuse to acknowledge it because I'm not doing the legwork and spoonfeeding you the links then it tells as much of a story as the Obama/Biden whataboutery.
And they were wrong, as the USA economy improved during Bidens Presidency.
Which doesnt necessarily mean individuals were better off. The economy can boom whilst leaving people behind. Although he did start to control inflation people were still facing the far higher grocery costs etc.
A lot of the plans were also long term such as infrastructure improvements so people werent seeing those gains. Good chance Trump will claim the credit for some and probably stick his name on them.
Looks like they used chatgpt to comeup with the plan. someone has tested it and recieved the same output
That needs sharing far and wide just to expose how shallow they are
The US doesn't have a federal purchase tax and individual state purchase taxes vary mostly between 0% and 7% so a significant difference with the 21% VAT that the EU charges on US imports.
And everything else sold whether imported or made here.
Your post implies that it's only US imports that are charged VAT.
Its a pet peeve of quite a few of the republicans paymasters. It works along the lines of.
Something else they don't understand because the USA uses Sales Taxes (at State level) and tariffs (at Federal level).
Indeed all the evidence is that what clinched the presidential election for Trump was that voters felt more impoverished after 4 years of the Biden administration than they had been under Trump.
I was discussing this with my family last night and they asked what it would actually take for US voters to turn against Trump. I said that they only thing would be if the price of eggs continued to be rise. I was half joking but, the more I think about it, the more I believe this to be true. They don't care about corruption, leaving the WHO or closing of public services. They don't care about the rich getting richer and they certainly don't care about international relations. They don't care about Gaza or Ukraine, but they do care about the price of eggs. And petrol. That seems to be about it.
so even US car build costs likely went up!
also ignores all the US sales taxes which whilst I think max out at 10% or so still exist. They are also horrendously complex going down to the city level in some cases.
The US doesn't have a federal purchase tax and individual state purchase taxes vary mostly between 0% and 7% so a significant difference with the 21% VAT that the EU charges on US imports.
well if he wants to have a federal VAT he could do that - assuming he could get it through the democratic process! But VAT on imports in UK/EU are irrelevant except to private importers - they are input tax, which you offset when you sell the item on. If you are a U.K. company buying us widgets and paying 20% vat plus say 4% duty - if you then export widgets, or items containing widgets you can claim back all the 20% VAT. Tariffs might encourage you to buy locally but they discourage international businesses to locate in your geography because it’s a transaction charge.
Biden created more jobs than any other administration didn’t he? Growth was 3.8%. Inflation was down. Stock market at record levels. Now growth is predicted to be -3% stock market is crashing, consumer spending is down, inflation is about to spike and egg prices are still rising!
The US has trade sanctions against both countries so theres not much point on putting tariffs against trade that has been banned.
Not much point in applying tariffs to uninhabited islands or those populated only by US and UK servicepeople, but that didn't stop them. If you wanted to give the impression of impartiality, putting a tariff on a country you don't trade with would make more sense - leaving tariffs off Russia and North Korea (but applying them to Ukraine) tells a story.
i don’t know how many “US” cars are actually built entirely in the US, from metal coming out of a smelter to a car arriving on your driveway.
apparently from ore to finished car there are elements that will have passed back and forth between Canada and the USA 6 or 7 times
Your post implies that it's only US imports that are charged VAT.
I have no idea how you have come to that conclusion.
I assumed that most people on this thread live in the UK and fully understand that VAT doesn't only apply to US imports.
I am not sure why that point would need to be made.
Biden created more jobs than any other administration didn’t he? Growth was 3.8%. Inflation was down. Stock market at record levels. Now growth is predicted to be -3% stock market is crashing, consumer spending is down, inflation is about to spike and egg prices are still rising!
This is worth repeating: Trump inherited an economy in good shape, he's now on the verge of crashing it. Not one serious economic commentator has endorsed tariffs. In fact the consensus appears to be the they end up hurting the country who imposed them more than anyone else. The 2026 midterms can't come soon enough - by then we will know if he's an economic genius or has sh1t for brains..
I have no idea how you have come to that conclusion.
I assumed that most people on this thread live in the UK and fully understand that VAT doesn't only apply to US imports.
TBF, I read your post the same way. Probably just something in the wording. The thing with repeating what someone says is that it can look like you agree with it.
Looks like Starmer's begging got a result after all. I'm worried Brexiteers might see it as a win of some type though.
We run a trade defecit with the USA and even the stoopidest of politicians knows the VAT line is a lie. We just got lumped in with the rest of the world as we should have. No reason to single us out.
I don't have the time to read all the comments but I think some people might be under the impression that Trump was a disaster for the US economy in his first term, he wasn't. In fact unemployment and poverty all fell during his first term and wages rose in real terms.
If you were one of the millions who benefited from this, or know someone who did, the temptation to vote for him a second time is obvious.
Even if it doesn't fit into the preferred narrative of those who have a misplaced sense of superiority, and who conveniently ignore the fact that 9 months ago Keir Starmer scammed the entire UK electorate.
The BBC has done some fact checking concerning Trump's first term, obviously feel free to dismiss the BBC as part of a Trump/far-left (whatever your personal prejudices) but it's good enough for me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-45827430
I agree that Trump won partly because he convinced people they were worse of under Biden, maybe a BBC comparison from 2024 might show if that was correct.
Trump inherited a burgeoning economy, it then hit a rock with covid, which he did little to steer around. Biden did more to grow the American economy
Anothe equally irrelevant piece
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/22/biden-trump-record-election
Fairly well thought out on the WHY of the Tariffs from Dem Senator from Conn.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3lluxkmx7wc2m
Perception of broader economic improvement and reality can be very different if you're not seeing the benefits at a personal level, or are being repeatedly told that you're not seeing them anyway.
Just like here, economic growth hasn't necessarily led to wage growth, although it has led to wealth redistribution upwards, as usual.
And that happened under Obama, under Trump version 1, under Biden and no doubt under Trump v2.
Having said that, crediting Trump with the continued recovery from the global economic crisis is probably pushing it a bit. The trend in jobs etc was pretty steady from 2010 onwards, and likely to continue due to economic lag. It means that the most you can say is that Trump didn't do what he's doing this time and jam a stick in the front wheel of the economy.
No doubt the effect of this latest economic sabotage will be blamed on Biden by Fox, and a good chunk of its viewership will believe it.
Dow Jones is down over a 1,000 points in the first five minutes.
Fairly well thought out on the WHY of the Tariffs from Dem Senator from Conn.
Its clear the tariffs are not a realistic trade remedy from how they are calculated....
Take the difference in % between US trade (US) and Overseas country (OC)
If OC sells more to US than US sells to OC divide %age by two (EG if OC sells 64% more to US, tariff is 32%).
IF US sells more to OC than OC sells to US, 10%.
Simples.
Except of course, it reflects in no way how much the US needs that product, whether the US can compete on said product (or even can make it) and doesn't include services. Much of the foreign made stuff coming in is made by US companies, just overseas. The profit comes home to the USA. Anyone fancy some effectively slave labour wages in the USA?
