Come on then junky - let's debate then. There's no debate here, it's just people calling Trump stupid because they don't like him, and it makes them feel better
😀
Hello Ninfan! Welcome back - nice holiday? With the post count rising I guessed someone was in the firing line but assumed it was jambas! But no, he's just being abused on another thread!
It's raining hard don't you know!!!
What was your ban for again THM?
All that shows is that folk with outlandish views get challenged.
Ninfan Graham had a go at rational, he even tries with chewkw, lets see how this pans out with your reply.
Cannot wait to see.
But I don't think so.
But then you didn't think he was going to get elected, either, so how can you (we?) place any trust in your skills to rationally and accurately analyse the evidence?
Whatever anyone thinks about the Donald, the response is not to simply abuse but to attempt to understand why someone who is clearly ill-qualified for the role, sits in the White House. DItto Brexsit. Failure to get to the bottom of this, dooms us to repeat the mistakes.
Agreed and it would be a better debate than the noise of this.
Ninfan the evidence that we had at the time said he was not going to get elected so it was the rational and accurate position at the time to think this.
Clearly it was wrong but there was little reason to think the man behind in the polls was going to win.It was not the rational view post the result but it was pre the result. See also our recent election or indeed brexit.
Rumour has it not even Trump expected this 😉
Your "argument" is also the genetic fallacy.
Ninfan the evidence that we had at the time said he was not going to get elected so it was the rational and accurate position at the time to think this.Clearly it was wrong
The evidence wasn't wrong, your and Grahams analysis of the evidence was wrong. Other people (Me, Jamba, Chewy, Farage) all analysed the same evidence and came to a different (correct) conclusion.
So, the question is that if 'you lot' managed to get it so wrong last time (when we got it right) what have you got to explain/justify/engender trust in your analysis this time?
You're like the bloke down the betting office who has just lost his wages betting on two losers, who now wants to borrow a tenner off us because the next horse is 'a dead cert'. All the evidence suggests that he wouldn't be able to identify a dead cert if it ran up and kissed him, so why should we believe he's right this time?
So you were right. Congratulations.
Do you actually think trump is doing a good job or are you only interested in telling people you were right and they weren't?
So, the question is that if 'you lot' managed to get it so wrong last time (when we got it right)
🙄
If we are all as reliable as our latest predictions, then 'your lots' Tory landslide & obliteration of Corbyn...
Obvs shows whos the smart ones here
Do you actually think trump is doing a good job
Are you actually interested wherher he's doing a good job, or in just shouting "stoooopid" because it makes you feel better?
Oh, go on, why not hit us with a poll that says his approval rates are really poor, from the same polling companies that accurately predicted him losing the election... oh.
then 'your lots' Tory landslide & obliteration of Corbyn...
Odd, I seem to remember saying that Jezza stood no chance of winning the election (he didn't) but that a majority of less than about 60 would be a disaster for Theresa (it was) however I also said from the start (ie. back when Cameron resigned) that the party should elect Rees-Mogg or Wee Ruthie as leader (they should have)
No, I'm interested in whether you think he is doing a good job.
But you seem to be trying to sidestep that
I'm interested and therefore concerned that he is doing a very bad job with N Korea.
Using inflammatory rhetoric without the ability to back it up is a very, very stupid thing to so. THe Us has not even vaguely prepared itself for a strike so empty threat simply make you look impotent - who knows perhaps that is appropriate.
It's 30 years since I studied any foreign policy and strategic studies. But you don't forget basic lessons, unless that is you are POTUS...
It's ok Thm, the White House has issued a statement, ( thru tillerson) to say not to pay attention to what Trump said, they obvs think he's stuff too 😉
It will be interesting to see if our gutless self serving prime minister has anything to say about the situation.
Given the gravity of the global conversation, the strong and stable head of the UK should be making a statement to reassure the public.
The is Trump an idiot question... The other option is he is a cheap troll who just wants attention.
Frankly the evidence is stacking up
Poor judgement on hiring people
Inability to work out a pr strategy to make problems go away - try and find when gwb mentioned his winning majority against Al gore.
Completely disregard for Congress and Senate when it comes to passing legislation
Inability to weather any kind of criticism.
That is just the start.
Polls being out once or twice doesn't invalidate them, again the methodology is sound and approvals have been used for years. It's a comparable number and complete believable if you look at events and news. He is managing to offend people who supported him, failing to deliver to those who voted for him and going against what some believe in.
The only fake news is coming from the white house
The only fake news is coming from the white house
When did JK Rowling start working for the White House then?
You obviously saw when she apologised for mistaking an edited video as complete. I'll revise it to 95%, 4% from golf courses and the rest from other sources.
So, therefefore your own comment was, in many ways, itself just another example of #fakenews 😆
It will be interesting to see if our gutless self serving prime minister has anything to say about the situation.Given the gravity of the global conversation, the strong and stable head of the UK should be making a statement to reassure the public.
What the hell has it got to do with us? This is an area where we have no strategic interests, it's in the bloody Pacific, not the Atlantic, it's all US and Asian interests that are involved.
Christ, its bad enough Blair got involved in an insane foreign escapade sucking up to Dubya, now you're suggesting our PM gets involved the shitstorm The Donald is stirring up?
Now, if NK said it had viable ICBM's with a nuclear warhead capable of not only reaching Guam and the North American continent, but going Great Circle and targeting London and Europe, well, your suggestion may have a bit of merit, but we're well off out of any involvement.
That's not to say there isn't one or two of our boats sitting quietly well offshore keeping a stealthy eye on things, but nobody has to know, well, not NK, anyway.
What the hell has it got to do with us?
Egh?
[img] 
[/img]
Although I do agree that the situation would certainly not be improved by more people weighing-in..... would be happy for the UK and Aus to avoid getting themselves further up Kim's sh*t-list
Me, Jamba, Chewy, Farage
That's your banhammer target right there.
Obvious troll is ****ing tedious and not very clever.
What the hell has it got to do with us?
NATO has a one for all policy.
Any war/attempt at it would have global implications
It will destablise the rgion
It has the potential to make any relations with China difficult at a minimum.
The soft skinned idiot is playing right into NK's hands, needlessly ramping it up in order to appear the tough man to his dwindling fans
Installing THAAD in Japan as well as SK would be incredibly useful.
Then simply shoot down anything they put into the air. Tests and all...
Bit of clarification on trump modernising America's nuclear arsenal, what he meant was he wants to spend more money on it but hadn't had anything passed by Congress yet so the credit for any modernisation should go to Obama. See also the economy, jobs etc.
Then simply shoot down anything they put into the air. Tests and all...
That would send a message BUT it would also give NK (and anyone else interested) an opportunity to test those defence systems for weaknesses and try out ways of defeating it.
Pre Referendum I was almost turned into a UKIP supporter.
The words Farage spoke about not getting involved in Syria and how our meddling in the middle east had made us more vulnerable not safer certainly echoed my feelings.
Let's hope he meant them and can have a word with his BFF.
That's not to say there isn't one or two of our boats sitting quietly well offshore keeping a stealthy eye on things, but nobody has to know, well, not NK, anyway.
Isnt our shiny new aircraft carrier going to be heading off that direction fairly soon to irritate the Chinese by do some right of navigation exercises. According to Boris anyway.
[quote=jam bo ]No, I'm interested in whether you think he is doing a good job.
But you seem to be trying to sidestep that
still sidestepping.
does ninfan have a view on trump beside 'nah nah nah I was right,you were wrong'
Tweeting and watching Fox isn't really a job.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/
this link from the other NK thread is worth a read. essentially there isn't good solution to the problem, only a least worst option.
God know ninfans trolling does not extend to anything other than goading
And given the drivel he has written oin here claiming someone else was wrong so they have no credibility is deeply ironic - I wonder if he knows this and des it intentionally
Anyway engaging with him is futile. he does not mean what he says nd all he wants is attention and . preferably, someone getting annoyed by him
Every comment feeds his psychological need to do this
As I say a shame as he is clearly a very bright fella and knowledgeable but he chooses to "scribble" across the forum, as he once described it.
The evidence wasn't wrong, your and Grahams analysis of the evidence was wrong. Other people (Me, Jamba, Chewy, Farage) all analysed the same evidence and came to a different (correct) conclusion.
Despite initially thinking he was a joke, as we got closer to the election and the rising tide of populism, I thought there was a good chance he'd be elected.
[url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/donald-trump#post-7057464 ]Jamba's first post[/url] on the matter was: [i]"Novelty value only, he has no chance of being elected" [/i]
Your [url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/donald-trump/page/3#post-7611956 ]first post[/url] says that his economic plan is [i]"pie in the sky"[/i] and his health care plan [i]"is obviously bollocks"[/i].
So I wasn't exactly alone in revising my position, was I?
good point raised here
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/895309948732702721
remember that weird 6AM out-of-the-blue trans ban in the military? Well guess what was going on AT THAT EXACT MOMENT. #Trump #Russia
you mistake him for someone who cares about the facts
ninfan
Other people (Me, Jamba, Chewy, Farage) all analysed the same evidence and came to a different (correct) conclusion.
Ok i realise there is no point even writing this, because you'll just blurt out some total nonsense in reply, but here goes for the benefit of the other people reading this thread:
[b]
PROBABILITY: the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the whole number of cases possible. [/b]
An election has some finite probability, but that probability is not definitely resolved until the actual result is known. If it were known before the election, then we wouldn't actually need to have that election.
So, before the election, people make GUESSES as to the outcome. Those guesses can be based on any level of knowledge or science, but no one, not even you my dearest ubberTroll [b] knows [/b] the outcome until after the event.
The US election and Brexit are both a result of people wanting change, but not actually being able to understand what they are changing. It's called a disruptive vote and it happens when people think (wrongly or rightly) that they are being let down by the current "system" (what ever that system might be). In reality, proper un-biased analysis of any system suggests in most cases, that system is probably pretty good, because it will have evolved over time to suit the environment in which it operates.
For example, if you're in a frying pan you want out, and if you can't see the fire raging around the outside of the pan, or are stupid / blinkered enough to believe someone, with equally little foresight, telling you there is no fire, then you'll almost certainly vote to get out of that frying pan.....
Take Brexit. We will not and can not know the true economic result of Brexit for something like 20 years. Even the best people in the business, with the best info (for example the Bank of England) are dealing with a system so complex, so large and so Chaotic (google "chaos theory" if you don't understand the scientific principals) that they cannot KNOW the true outcome for sure. We can guess ("Leave the EU and the NHS gets £350M a week" for example), we can estimate ("Bank of England says Brexit will cost householders an extra £100 a week"), but we cannot KNOW.
Which brings us back to where we came in PROBABILITY.......
But here's the thing, probability is resolved over time by an increasing number of events that pool individual probabilites into a more realistic average probability distribution. And the shape of that distribution (we call it "experience" in human terms) is what is important.
Another simple example:
You go to a basket ball court, you stand facing away from the net at the other end of the court, you hurl the ball, blindly, over your shoulder and score a direct hit into the net. Based on that single event ( 1 hit) you are the greatest basket ball player ever to have lived! Go you!
But probability tells us that in fact, until you've tried say another 100 times, we cannot draw a finite conclusion as to your skill at basketball.
So DT gets elected as POTUS. GO HIM! He walks into the White House with the swagger of a man who's going to change the world! (build a wall, make America Great Again, reduce crime, eradicate drug gangs or even "Drain the Swamp"). Based on the single event that our ubberTroll keeps on going on about, DT is a great man.
But, Time passes, individual probabilities resolve into a finite probability distribution, and here, things look rather less rosy. Sure at one end we have a massive success (getting to be POTUS) but after that event, there hasn't been a single significant other success, but row, after row or failure. On average, it's clear that DT is a terrible President, that he only knows Playground politics (see current "My Dads bigger than your Dad" rhetoric with NK for example.....).
So, in summary, yes, you did correctly [b]guess[/b] the outcome of the US presidential election, but unfortunately, since that point your horse has taken a lot of rather nasty tumbles and is due to be put down at any minute......
(BTW, i'm not even going to bother reading any rely you may make to what i've just written, sorry. That's the downside of being a troll rather than actually joining an adult discussion like the rest of the posters on here)
PROBABILITY: the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the whole number of cases possible.
Really?
[i]Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. At least according to a predictive forecasting model by a team of computer science students at the University of Illinois.
Election Analytics, a student-run STEM lab that uses polling data and sophisticated algorithms to predict presidential races, has Clinton’s chances of winning at 100%. Clinton hit the 100% mark last night when her odds were increased from 99.98%. It’s the first time during the election that Election Analytics has put Donald Trump’s chances of winning at 0%.[/i]
😀
Key point:
according to a predictive forecasting model by a team of computer science students
Boots the psychic goat also picked Clinton as the winner, whereas Geda the psychic monkey went for Trump:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/psychic-animals-election-predicitons_us_5820b4fbe4b0e80b02cb7e04
he can't help taking credit for other people's work can he? I wonder how much he believes what he says, surely he knows that he hasn't actually done anything. This means he's either telling porkies or believes he's done something when he hasn't. Not very presidential.Donald Trump has said that thanks to him, the US's nuclear arsenal is "far stronger and more powerful than ever before,"
They guessed wrong, you guessed right?
Key point:according to a predictive forecasting model by a team of computer science[b] students[/b]
Nothing like using a student project to prove how desperate you are to make a point
And not even statistics students at that.
(FWIW I have a BSc Hons in Computer Science and what we learnt about predictive modelling wouldn't fill a beermat)
I'm glad that the consensus of opinion is that we can't trust predictive computer modelling.
I'm sure we will return to this issue in future climate change threads anon 😉
still sidestepping.
what's your opinion of trump's competence?
One could say the lack of an answer is an answer in itself.
I'm glad that the consensus of opinion is that we can't trust predictive computer modelling.
No, the consensus of opinion is that you can't trust computer science students, who probably have very little experience in modelling and even less in statistical methods, to produce accurate computer models.
That said, any model is an extrapolation from the known data. There will have been points where even hypothetical 100%-accurate models would have shown Trump losing the election because [i][b]at that point[/b][/i] he would have.
Even Jamba said he stood no chance and Jamba is never wrong.
[quote=akira ]One could say the lack of an answer is an answer in itself.
i know that already but i'm bored.
what's your opinion of trump's competence?
Well, he has, at the very least, proven himself to be competent at manipulating the system and electorate sufficiently enough to be elected despite having [u]zero[/u] chance of winning, so the evidence we are presented with is quite clearly that you, and almost everyone else here, misunderestimated [sic] his competence at that. 😀
the problem for you is that even resorting to questioning his [u]competence[/u] only reinforces the predictions made by [url= https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/830819552061640704 ]Scott Adams[/url], that his critics would begin to shift their argument as Trump successfully delivered what his voters wanted (from a systems not goals mindset)
Your own argument begins to fall apart when you consider competence anyway - he has proven competent in developing and enacting a plan do defeat ISIS, competent at reducing immigration, competent at increasing employment/jobs - all these things, just like his election chances, were mocked at the time, we were told that Trump had zero chance of succeeding at them too, but just look what's happening...
In fact, the worse actual, concrete and tangible, criticism you can come up with against him is that he said some things that you don't like (under the caveat that saying these things successfully, you know, got him elected!) and that he hasn't achieved all the things he set out to do (caveat.... yet!) #winning #MAGA
Your own argument begins to fall apart when you consider competence anyway - he has proven competent in developing and enacting a plan do defeat ISIS, competent at reducing immigration, competent at increasing employment/jobs
balls! all hes done is continue at exactly the same pace Obama had on all of those,
I suppose to his desperate fanboys that look like winning
hes achieved very little other than put us all closer to armageddon & get himself investigated by his own security services
hes still just as batshit as ever, no matter how much youd like him not to be
and even his core voters agree as his approval ratings reach new record lows on a daily basis
so you've talked about what you think I think so once again you can deflect the question. there is a trend here.
double post.
I'd have to dig out the stats, but the rate of creation of new jobs has actually fallen since Trump was elected.
kimbers - Member
How about the Wall?
What do you think of Turkey building their wall along their boarders? 😆
Apparently, some other news also reported Turkey land grabbing too in to Syria. 😛
[url= https://www.rt.com/news/399015-turkey-iran-border-wall/ ]News reference here[/url]
[url= https://www.dezeen.com/2017/04/25/turkey-completes-first-phase-900-kilometre-wall-syrian-border/ ]Other news for reference.[/url]
[url= http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKCN11Y1MB ]Older news reference here.[/url]
Crikey where are all those shouty objectors to the Turkish wall? 😆
ICE agents arrested less people in trump's first few months than Obama's and deportations figures have gone down. As already been said employment figures were very good under Obama and have fallen under Trump and his ISIS plan seem to be the same as Obama's and as far as I'm aware ISIS still exist. So what about that Russia investigation?
he has proven competent in developing and enacting a plan do defeat ISIS, competent at reducing immigration, competent at increasing employment/jobs
Really he has an isis plan? What is it?
Immigration? Well. Deporting and splitting families and terrorising people who have been in the US for a long time seems humane.
Employment? His big win at carrier the air con people just shipped jobs to Mexico.
Employment figures haven't fallen...the rate of increase has fallen
FAKE NEWS LOSER
COVFEVE
Really he has an isis plan? What is it?
He's praying [i]really[/i] hard, the hardest, that they get bored and will just stop of their own fruition.
Has plan, is implementing it.
Really he has an isis plan? What is it?
Thought he was just going to call them names till they backed off from his school yard tactics, kinda like whats going on with NK now.
ICE agents arrested less people in trump's first few months than Obama's and deportations figures have gone down
Immigration? Well. Deporting and splitting families and terrorising people who have been in the US for a long time seems humane.
So, we've now got one leftie arguing that deporting illegal immigrants is a bad thing.... and another leftie telling us that Trump is deporting fewer illegal immigrants than Obama did.
So Donald is actually reducing immigration (less illegals coming over the border) whilst being [b]more[/b] compassionate than Obama was over deportations
#winning 😀
Lefties, always the same, fighting with each other like ferrets in a sack 😆
That is all he wants to rail against "lefties" whatever the facts
I am not sure why he wants "lefties" to speak with one voice and if they did he would just call them indoctrinated stooges trained just like Mao wanted.
Mr Trump has so far made few changes to the US’ anti-Isis strategy but has repeatedly promised to publish a new and comprehensive plan for defeating the organisation.
WHat more do you want Loser?
Essentially more of the same whilst trying to come up with a plan that will work and look different from Obamas plan. Essentially more of the same with some delegation of power,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/donald-trump-isis-defeat-plan-barack-obama-too-similar-syria-iraq-raqqa-mosul-us-president-a7826701.html
06/08/17 dated IIRC he ha sbene playing golf so no more action
“I’m going to convene my top generals and give them a simple instruction,” he said in September 2016. “They will have 30 days to submit to the Oval Office a plan for soundly and quickly defeating Isis.”
In May, the US President said he would hold a press conference in two weeks to lay out his Isis plan. Two weeks later, he said the announcement would be in a further two weeks.
Now over six weeks later, reports suggest the delay is in part because Mr Trump is determined to differentiate himself from Mr Obama and wants to make certain the two plans are different enough.
The main change implemented by the Republican to date involved delegating responsibility for authorising air strikes and special forces missions.
Whereas Mr Obama had been directly involved in signing off operations, Mr Trump has handed much of the responsibility to his Defence Secretary, Jim Mattis. Mr Mattis has, in turn, given more authority to military commanders.
Mr Trump has also ramped up operations against Isis and its affiliates in Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia
Well, he has, at the very least, proven himself to be competent at manipulating the system and electorate sufficiently enough to be elected despite having zero chance of winning, so the evidence we are presented with is quite clearly that you, and almost everyone else here, misunderestimated [sic] his competence at that.
With fake news and false promises, i'm sure you would be proud of that. The problem, like with Brexit is delivery. This is where the rights staggering arrogance on winning "a battle", and failure to deliver will once again defeat themselves.
That is all he wants to rail against "lefties" whatever the facts
So, a bit like calling Trump stupid and incompetent despite the facts showing that he won the presidency and defeated ISIS, not only just like he promised, but just like the lefties said would never happen? #MAGA
With fake news and false promises
So, once again, demonstrating that rather than incompetent and stupid [u]as you claimed[/u], he's in fact an incredibly smart and completely competent con-artist 😀 #winning
facts showing that he won the presidency and [b]defeated ISIS[/b]
Trump defeating ISIS, now you're just making stuff up...or were you making a point about fake news/false promises.
What evidence do you have that he has increased job/employment please?
He should probably tweet at ISIS as I don't think they know he's defeated them yet. I should think trump has actually resulted in their numbers growing tbh.
I normally ignore Ninfan's posts, and having read the outright lies he is posting, I shall return to that policy.
[quote=GrahamS ]What evidence do you have that he has increased job/employment please?
extrapolate from the number of people trump has employed since november, ignore the firings. hey presto. employment up. you heard it here first. #fakenews
what I'm intrigued by with ninfan, jambalaya etc is how far the slavish devotion to the right goes.
I'm not particularly left wing, in fact I'd probably term myself as right of centre but I look at Trump (and May) and think to myself WTF is going on. Is this as good as it gets...
So, once again, demonstrating that rather than incompetent and stupid as you claimed
I don't think I have said he is stupid. Only those that follow him.
he's in fact an incredibly smart and completely competent con-artist
The con can only go on for so long.
😆#winning
[quote=GrahamS ]What evidence do you have that he has increased job/employment please?
Is post hoc ergo propter hoc not good enough for you ?
what I'm intrigued by with ninfan, jambalaya etc is how far the slavish devotion to the right goes.
Run out of facts shout leftie...
jam bo - Memberwhat I'm intrigued by with ninfan, jambalaya etc is how far the slavish devotion to the right goes.
All the way to the parallel dimension where Trump has defeated ISIS
Trump defeating ISIS, now you're just making stuff up...or were you making a point about fake news/false promises
Nah, there'll be some schoolboy's homework someplace about how Trump singlehandedly defeated ISIS, built a wall, had Hillary Clinton thrown in jail and saved the world
post hoc ergo propter hoc
I'm not sure if you were being ironical but that phrase is usually used to demonstrate the logical fallacy that a correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
(Or have I conflated Jambalaya and Junkyard again? Many apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick)
I haven't got involved in this thread, but seriously, how can anyone not be amazed at trump's incompetence? The fact that there is an argument puzzles me......
David koresh, jim Jones, Ron Hubbard....all of those convinced a load of borderline remedials that what they were up to was correct too.
I need to step away from the keyboard, as does mr trumpton.
In one thing at least, ninfan is quite correct. Trump is a conman.
Here's an example of his latest attempted con, designed to make people believe that he's actually doing something other than playing golf...
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_598d4a8be4b08a2472737aa2?ir=UK
The curious thing is, ninfan seems to think that Americans finding themselves with a conman for a President is a good thing.
However, in the age of instant communication, his lumbering attempts to maintain the con are falling foul of exposure.
So now we see, as in the above example, that even the cry of "fake news" no longer works.
I'm not sure if you were being ironical but that phrase is usually used to demonstrate the logical fallacy that a correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
"Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X
Just because something happened before an event [ trump elected] it does not mean it is the cause of the other event [ increased employment].
Or have I conflated Jambalaya and Junkyard again?
Its hard to say who is most insulted by that confusion 😉
I like this FB post from Ricky Gervais, today:
Jane just asked if that mud on the sofa was from my trainers, so I quickly tried to start a war with North Korea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746
Although it's just a Trump tweet, and its conditional. By the end of today there will be retractions and qualifiers from all his advisers and negotiators
I'm coming to terms with him now.
He's like that dodgy uncle who,you know will touch up your sister and is probably broke but likes to go on about being chair of the golf club and how kids today are all layabouts.
I think the US has him boxed in now so less of a worry and more just entertainment.