konabunny – Member

Hillary has a really toxic brand, at least fifty percent of which is deserved.

Yup- a really important stat is “would never vote for” and Hilary is just barely behind Trump in that. And Clinton and Trump have similiar disapproval ratings- Trump 59% negative, 38% positive, but Clinton 53/44. These are both completely shit numbers to be taking into a presidential campaign. (as opposed to Sanders 60% positive, 33% negative) Cruz also has a negative rating. I don’t think the message of how disliked she is gets across (Bill otoh still gets a positive rating, it’s not a “boo Clinton” thing). I suppose the bottom line is, she’s the experienced candidate, her entire selling point should be “I’m already doing the job” but every time she says it, a decent chunk of voters say “Aye, and you’re shite at it”

Another, among Sanders supporters, 33% say they’ll never vote for Clinton compared to 32% who say they’ll never vote for Trump! There’s a strength and weakness here, Sanders is far more likely to pick up opposition votes than Clinton- but his supporters are also far more likely to go to the other side.

OTOH I saw in Utah, 16% of previous voters said they’ll refuse to vote if the choice is Trump or Clinton, which is downright tragic especially given groundswells of nontraditional voters, but a natural side effect of turning the election into an unpopularity contest.

Again, all just polls- but a hell of a lot of polls, coming up with similiar and parallel results. I’m not overly trusting of polls but it’s better than just declaring everything to be how you think it is, or swallowing whole perceived wisdoms.

(I must admit, I’m completely astonished about the Bernie thing, I think like a lot of people I’d fallen for the idea that just saying “socialist!” rules people out. I think a lot of us have underestimated normal Americans tbh. But it’s the clown car you see the most. I don’t think he has a play that can beat his party but the take-away lessons for both parties are simply this- the rules aren’t what they thought they are.)

good for headlines but with no chancs of being elected.

It is an obvious comparison, but it’s the line above I take issue with. It’s a line repeated so often as if it’s a fact when I think both would have a very real chance of being elected, if their parties let them get on with it.

What I find amazing is (according to the HuffPo who admittedly are rabidly anti-Trump) the abortion question just doesn’t matter to some. They quote one woman at the meeting as saying:

“I don’t vote based on abortions. I think there’s more important things,” said Deboard, who described herself as pro-choice. “Look, if ISIS comes over and kills us, I’m not real concerned with abortions. There’s more important things to deal with here. We’re way beyond abortions here. If you want abortion, you can go get one. I guess I’m pro-choice, but I’m not strong. Like I said, I have more important issues I’m concerned about.”

So there’s someone who is so caught up in the fear that the terrorists are coming and only Trump can stop them that she is willing to ignore things that actually have much more of an impact on her community.

You want to stop whatever it is your smoking because there is no way the Dems & HC are “far to right of the Cameron & the Conservatives”……

@mrlebowski … Hilary/Democrats support tax rates way lower than we have in the UK with numerous deductions particularly beneficial to the wealthy, they support unemployment welfare ending after 2 years, they support a degree of universal healthcare but its a tiny fraction of the nhs, they support the right to bear arms and despite numerous mass shootings have done little to reform the law or restrict access to automatic weapons, they support military spending and intervention far in excess of the UK

Your point about the Republicans is well made, they are right out there.

So there’s someone who is so caught up in the fear that the terrorists are coming and only Trump can stop them that she is willing to ignore things that actually have much more of an impact on her community.

That part is a little bonkers, bus as. I read around the subject at this point the only way to ban abortion is via the supreme court as they have already ruled it’s legal (possibly via the Constitution) and here is the bigger problem, the president cut do a lot without party support (or a lot anyway) but can **** things up.

As for BBC bias and not taking Trump seriously nobody was, even in deepest darkest Conservative American back in October he was nothing but a joke. People are still waiting for the punchline.

Clintons biggest weakness, and Trumps greatest strength:

Trump is clearly telling a positive line about the economy – it may be pie in the sky, but at least he’s got a bloody plan!
Thats doubly telling when you tackle ‘change vs more of the same’ as Clinton is very much ‘established order’

and as for healthcare… well, regardless of the absolute need for something, Obamacare remains toxic to all too many – Trumps line of ““I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people,” is obviously bollocks, but at least its ‘change vs more of the same’.

“I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people,” is obviously bollocks, but at least its ‘change vs more of the same’.

I suspect the only option there would be a full blown NHS style system. The money saved on bureaucracy alone would be huge

just can’t help himself can he 🙂

🙂

Is he for real or a carefully scripted construct?

Saw this the other day (careful of swearing):
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CceQISThDYQ[/video]

There were a couple of nice comments on Youtube (amongst all the masses of butthurt Trumpets and frothing racists) than nicely summarise the situation:

“Man, why do we depend on comedians today making the best political analysis. Where have serious journalism gone??”

“When a guy like Jim Jefferies,makes more sense then the guy who runs for president of the USA,then you realise how much humanity is screwed.”

“We used to laugh at our comedians. Now we laugh at our politicians and listen seriously to comedians.”

Look, here’s Serena not being his friend while opening his new sports centre:

[video]http://youtu.be/04PxQm_L1Hs[/video]

And not being his friend at a party:

I think maybe Serena is prepared to be his friend, just not his ‘Black American Woman Friend’.

Edit: OK. Fake.

well maybe they became less friendly when it became apparent to her that he was using her as to signal that he isn’t a sexist bigot, like he is.

Yep, ninfan is right. Don’t believe everything you read on t’internet even if you want it to be true:

http://www.snopes.com/donald-trump-serena-williams-wimbledon/

DOne up like a kipper there. I can even hear his voice saying it.

keep up to date with his latest gaffes here

http://www.slate.com/topics/t/trump_apocalypsewatch.html

to be honest If i was American id be looking at the Brexit vote with some worry, and not underestimate my fellow countryman’s ability to commit gross acts of political and economic self-harm

As if the Trump campaign couldn’t get any further into farce: Melania Trump made a surprisingly good speech addressing the Republican National Convention.

But it sounds strangely familiar…

“From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise, that you treat people with respect. They taught and showed me values and morals in their daily lives. That is a lesson that I continue to pass along to our son. And we need to pass those lessons on to the many generations to follow. Because we want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.”

To this one from somebody called Michelle Obama made in 2008:

“Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you’re going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don’t know them, and even if you don’t agree with them. And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children — and all children in this nation — to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.”

And it goes on like that 😯

Polls have him tied with Clinton. We need to understand he may well win.

To be fair it’s pretty hard to find a political speech that isn’t just a list of platitudes and truisms, maybe they’ve got the same banalbolloxgenerator app?

Plagiarism of Michelle Obama’s speech will not matter one jot to the Trump supporters, they are all **** loons to begin with and any attempt to argue or reason with them is pointless, as an aside…… Did you watch Panorama last night?.

Polls have him tied with Clinton. We need to understand he may well win.

it does seem to be the year for
[video]http://youtu.be/WRNYqsMIbg0[/video]

see a clinic full of cynics
Who want to twist the peoples’ wrist
They’re watching every move we make
We’re all included on the list
The lunatics have taken over the asylum

Which polls Jamby?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
These mostly come out Clinton up

they are all **** loons to begin with

So, Republicans then? 🙂 Have you seen their platform?

Crossing the margin of error streams now but not the actual lines

Polls have him tied with Clinton. We need to understand he may well win.

What polls said that?

Hillary Clinton: 46% (unchanged since June)
Donald Trump: 41% (unchanged since June)

ABC News/Washington Post:

Hillary Clinton: 47% (down from 51% in June)
Donald Trump: 43% (up from 39% in June)

CNN:

Hillary Clinton: 49% (up from 47% in June)
Donald Trump: 42% (unchanged since June)

clicky thing

As reported on news coverage of the convention yesterday, “tied in the polls” is what they said

Personally I think he’s going to win as Clinton is equally divisive and very unpopular and has far too many skeletons in her cupboard, especially financial dodgy deals. That plus Obama’s Presidency has too many major errors and that will impact the Democrats. Its hard for us to see it here but Trump is the anti-establishment candidate.

I was wrong about him not winning the nomination and I’d vote for Hillary but the US want’s a change.

““I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people,”

This does seem to sum up the Trump. I’m going to change it and it’s going to be “terrific”. But I’m not going to give you any details as to what it’s going to look like or how I plan to implement and pay for it!

Its hard for us to see it here but Trump is the anti-establishment candidate.

Yep I fear he might get in on the same anti-establishment disgruntlement that has clouded voting decisions here

Despite the fact that, just like here, all he really offers is a slightly different establishment (one with less Gays, more Guns, less Climate Worry, more Coal, less Mexicans, more Walls, less Muslims, more Fear).

I’m not going to give you any details as to what it’s going to look like or how I plan to implement and pay for it!

Even that sounds kind of familiar… 😉

As reported on news coverage of the convention yesterday, “tied in the polls” is what they said

OK well the vast pile of polls will allow you to stand corrected 😉

Personally I’m going for a vote on common sense, Trump is popular among his supporters, he is more unpopular than Hillary and he now needs to start backflipping on huge amounts of policy to gain some of the centre ground. She will tear him a new one in the debates if there is a moderator who keeps him on track. If he launches into soundbite shouty mcshoutface she can step back and be Presidential. Something Trump will never achieve even if they elect the prick.

Even that sounds kind of familiar…

🙂 I guess the UK fell for that one too!

Just been to the states actually. A lot of people asked me about this brexit mess and how it’s messed up the uk economy and asked how it happened. I explained that the leave campaigned appealed to the xenophobic masses in the same way that Trump does. I think seeing the UK going down the pan has put off a few potential trump voters. Every cloud and all that.

I’m finding the Republican Convention videos intriguing. I’m not quite sure whether to laugh or run into the wilderness and live off grid for the rest of my days.
Quote of the day has to come from a US friend’s fb feed…

Not sure why everyone is so worried about the candidate’s wife plagiarizing Michelle Obama when the candidate himself is going to plagiarize Mein Kampf.

@mike indeed 🙂 the issue what we see as “common sense” is quite different to the US, no real universal health care, no unemployment payments beyond 2 years, no broader welfare support – not even the Democrats want to change that.

I really think people here (myself included) too often look at the US and try and interpret it through European eyes.

@fourbanger if you had explained how the eu works with a foreign court and parliament setting laws and freedom of movement between member countries I think you wouod have got a different outcome. Both Clinton and Trump want to heavily modify the one significant trace agreement the US has in NAFTA.

@ocrider I think Trump will be much more protectionist and much more isolationist, so not quite Mein Kampf !

jambalaya – Member

As reported on news coverage of the convention yesterday, “tied in the polls” is what they said

Personally I think he’s going to win as Clinton is equally divisive and very unpopular

I’ve yet to meet an American who likes her and can stand up and say why. And it’s not for want of meeting Americans (well, Californians).

@fourbanger if you had explained how the eu works with a foreign court and parliament setting laws and freedom of movement between member countries I think you wouod have got a different outcome.

On your point about “different eyes” I suspect that many Americans, looking at the EU through their eyes, would probably interpret that set up as being not much different from their Federal and State system, which is where the “United States of Europe” analogy applies.

(And of course it’s not a “foreign court and parliament”, but you knew that anyway)

Exactly that GrahamS. That’s how most people saw it and couldn’t understand what kind of narrow minded simpleton could possible object to it.
Especially with the GDP of the USA and the EU being basically the same. “Why would you opt out?” they said.
A lot of people saw an analogy with the Southern States, all that “the south will rise again” confederate flag, white supremacy bullshit. It helped I was in a more liberal and enlightened north east.. But it was pretty embarrassing none the less.

What is it with these politicians & their tough on immigration stance who like to marry immigrants?!

@ocrider I think Trump will be much more protectionist and much more isolationist, so not quite Mein Kampf !

I think it was more about cheap populist politics, rather than goose stepping across Poland, still. It was a fun post that provoked some great responses but I guess that YHTBT 🙂

This does seem to sum up the Trump. I’m going to change it and it’s going to be “terrific”. But I’m not going to give you any details as to what it’s going to look like or how I plan to implement and pay for it

This is exactly the reason I’m very scared of POTUS Trump

Just throw in some casual xenophobia (Trumps done this + lots)and you’ve got Brexit

If a load of populist lies and scapegoating can work on the left behind of Britain , it can work in the USA too

What is it with these politicians & their tough on immigration stance who like to marry immigrants?!

Because they probably like to dress their wives up like plantation slaves…