The effect of a Scottish Yes vote on the rest of the UK?

A slightly different tack on the Scottish Question. Could Cameron survive being The PM Who Lost Scotland?

No doubt he will be the hero who cast aside the Scottish anchor that was holding us back.

And would the next Westminster govt, and especially the Tories, do all in their power to make the separation process as difficult as possible for the Scots?

Depends how bad the immediate economic fallout from a yes vote would be. The turbulence could definitely cost the Conservatives any chance of an outright win in 2015, hence the calls for them to try to get into bed with UKIP from some of their MPs.

Great news for the tories in 2019, though. Just what will Labour have to do to win?

One of the main outcomes would be the large northern cities would immediately be demanding a level of devolution and autonomy from Westminster.

We’d be condemned to permanent Tory hegemony, when there isn’t a single Tory MP and any of the northern cities, so that situation of a democratic deficit would be as ultimately unsustainable as it has proved to be in Scotland

It’s the least of of his issues.

Indeed Binners, I doubt if the effects would stay confined to the north of Hadrian’s Wall.

And Drac; I think this WILL be his defining, overriding issue, unless you are referring to him escaping with his life form an angry mob…

And Drac; I think this WILL be his defining, overriding issue, unless you are referring to him escaping with his life form an angry mob…

He’s withdrawn millions of pounds of benefits, food banks have increased, the NHS is being sold off and staff haven’t had pay rise beyond 1% since he came into power and that’s just for starters. Losing Scotland no one cares about.

He can – has – got away with that; but losing the oil? No…

Just what will Labour have to do to win?

Same as they have always had to do, be electable to middle england. It’s a fallacy that the Labour party needed the scottish constituancies to win an election. Every time they’ve been in power they had a majority of the seats in England.

Who knows?
Some companies currently based in Scotland have already announced they’ll be moving out if there’s a Yes vote – Standard Life and Bank of Scotland being 2 significant examples. Being financial you’d expect them to move to London where the skill base is – therefore greater inequality for UK but good for London…

I suspect it’s bad news for any foreign investors who wanted to put money into Scotland – they’ll either pull out completely and put money into another country, or find somewhere in UK to put it.

I suspect demand for other regions in UK to have more independence from Westminster – not a bad thing per se but the economic argument will need to stack up if that’s the provide opportunities for the people, rather than greater debt burdens – North West seems to be the best candidate in that respect…

In the immediate term I would expect Sterling to fall, foreign investment to stall and interest rate on government bonds to rise (making our debt harder to pay off) simply from the lack of certainty about UK economic future and lack of clarity on the consequences…

UK is in an economic mess already – can’t see how a Yes vote is likely to improve things

I think ‘Labour’ will unelectable for a generation until Blair and Brown’s legacy has faded.

He can – has – got away with that;

I’m sorry I didn’t realise they’d been another election.

Some companies currently based in Scotland have already announced they’ll be moving out if there’s a Yes vote – Standard Life and Bank of Scotland being 2 significant examples.

Talk is cheap. Saying it, and actually doing it are 2 completely different things. Big companies are always threatening to move, when trying to get their way, by holding a gun to the head of governments. They never actually do though! Its just attempted blackmail. And pretty transparent for that.

Anyway… isn’t the toad like one setting corporation tax much lower than London? That all companies like banks care about. The bottom line

SCOTLAND plans to have some kind of referendum that could take place as early as next week.

It is understood the referendum is about politics and has been pencilled in for a week on Thursday, or possibly the Thursday after that.

Bill McKay, a Scottish person, said: “Yeah, we’ve all been talking about the politics referendum for, let me think now…

“Three and a half years.”

English politicians said that if the referendum actually happens, it will no doubt involve Scottish people either wanting or not wanting something or other.

Chancellor George Osborne said: “We’re going to offer them Barbara Windsor

Scotland having some sort of referendum, apparently

Some companies currently based in Scotland have already announced they’ll be moving out if there’s a Yes vote – Standard Life and Bank of Scotland being 2 significant examples.

Name change imminent?

I think ‘Labour’ will unelectable for a generation until Blair and Brown’s legacy has faded.

I would say until they stop selecting awkward teenagers as party leaders…

In the short term it’ll cause chaos. I think Cameron in particular will struggle to survive as it he’ll be blamed for allowing it to happen as it’s on his watch and buck stops with him. Miliband will also get his fair share of flak as it’ll cripple the labour party in all sorts of ways. In the end what will become apparent is a shocking naivety and complacency at the highest levels of government and the British political establishment. They’ve basically sat back and thought that all they had to do was tell a few scare stories and the obedient scots will fall into line. Now they’ve woken up to the reality and you can smell the panic. It’s incredible really, but not surprising.

Drac – Moderator

He’s withdrawn millions of pounds of benefits, food banks have increased, the NHS is being sold off and staff haven’t had pay rise beyond 1% since he came into power and that’s just for starters.

binners – Member

One of the main outcomes would be the large northern cities would immediately be demanding a level of devolution and autonomy from Westminster.

The Tories will just move further to the right – Boris will dismantle the NHS and scrap the BBC.
And somehow, it’ll all be our fault.

It’s a fallacy that the Labour party needed the scottish constituancies to win an election. Every time they’ve been in power they had a majority of the seats in England.

Well that’s plainly untrue:
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge74b/seats74b.htm

or how about this one where the Conservatives easily won in England
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge74a/seats74a.htm

In the short term it’ll cause chaos.

Chaos or some mild upset?

Even if the Scots vote No (and I still think a narrow No is likely) Cameron and co in coming so close to losing the vote will be damaged goods. Perhaps their only salvation will be that Boris has yet to be elected and Milliband is so awful.

zippykona – Member
No doubt he will be the hero who cast aside the Scottish anchor that was holding us back.

This

What depresses me is the idea of ‘us’ and ‘them’, the idea that Scottish people are different.

If Scottish people aren’t British, then what are Welsh or Northern Irish people? Are we really all on our own? Is there no togetherness, solidarity, unity? Looks like there isn’t. Well **** you all too.

In the end what will become apparent is a shocking naivety and complacency at the highest levels of government and the British political establishment.

Absolutely bang on! I just hope this is a real wake up call to them. The lot of them – Labour as well as the Tories – have allowed a huge chasm to develop, over decades. A chasm between how they perceive the rest of the country (outside London) and the actual reality.

You can see the shock on their faces, as they digest the fact that a large percentage of people would rather take their chances with a leap into the unknown, than stick with their smug, complacent, patronising, London obsessed ideologies.

They must also be realising that that isn’t restricted just to Scotland either, and is representative of a feeling of bitter resentment in the rest of the country at being constantly ignored by a Westminster who’s only interests are london and the South East

If I was Scottish, then voting Yes would be an absolute no brainer!

Edit: Molly – This isn’t about nationalism. This is about freeing themselves from a insular, self-serving Westminster elite that has no interest in ‘the regions’. Theres plenty of places in England I think would vote for exactly the same if given the option

One thing that’s confusing me is the oil issue. Is it not the UK’s oil not just Scotlands? Will we have to roll into Scotland in tanks to get our share? It couldn’t happen here we’re far too civilised.

40 less Scottish labour MPs mean that Cameron will probably get re-elected. Whilst I don’t disagree with many of the above posts, the economy is on the up and unemployment down in England (Tory areas), hence the Tories will probably get re-elected.

I think about my business area and it will be bizarre for Scotland. All the government organisations / ruling bodies etc… and centralised expertise are in England. I presume that these will all be eventually lost to Scotland.

Chaos or some mild upset?

Well chaos in an administrative and financial sense, rather than a ‘people panic buying fuel and bread’ sense. I may be wrong but I really don’t think any of the major parties has thought it through entirely, they’ve just assumed it’ll be a no vote. I’d certainly expect the markets to slump. There’s already a mild panic today on the currency markets with stirling taking a dive, and that’s just based on conjecture and mild worry, imaging what it’ll be like if they actually vote yes?

Talk is cheap. Saying it, and actually doing it are 2 completely different things. Big companies are always threatening to move, when trying to get their way, by holding a gun to the head of governments. They never actually do though! Its just attempted blackmail. And pretty transparent for that.

Anyway… isn’t the toad like one setting corporation tax much lower than London? That all companies like banks care about. The bottom line

You reckon? Standard Life actually tried pretty hard to point out they weren’t attempting blackmail and claimed to be totally impartial – I’m sure they’d have kept such plans secret were it possible to do so. You don’t think that the regulatory framework might force them to do move a lot of their business to the country they’re trading in? I suspect banks also care about the law (at least the parts of it they can’t avoid), such as the EU law about being based in the country where they do the majority of their business.

They will actually do it, because it makes no sense for them not to do so. If you don’t believe that you’ve probably been reading too much WOS stuff.

molgrips – Member

What depresses me is the idea of ‘us’ and ‘them’, the idea that Scottish people are different.

If Scottish people aren’t British, then what are Welsh people? Are we really all on our own? Is there no togetherness, solidarity, unity? Looks like there isn’t.

The cult of the individual, isn’t it?
If you discredit the idea of collective good and promote the idea of the self above all else, then this is the consequence.

molgrips – Member
What depresses me is the idea of ‘us’ and ‘them’, the idea that Scottish people are different.

Isn’t that what Nationalist politics is all about though 🙁

How many Scottish deny being British? Or did, before the referendum debate?

Isn’t that what Nationalist politics is all about though

Yes. “We don’t want to throw our lot in with you and work to change for the better, because YOU are different to us, you’re from somewhere else”

If Scotland votes yes in the referendum there will no doubt be a lot of economic pain in the short term for the whole of the UK which I suspect will leave the Scottish with very few friends South of the border for a very long time. It is rather depressing that so many in Scotland seem happy to treat many years of shared history and achievement with such contempt and walk away from what has been a very productive relationship without a second thought.

Long term I reckon it could be good for the UK as a whole, providing the Government is clever in how it handles things (unlikely I know); money which is now spent in Scotland could be used to make some meaningful infrastructure investments in many Northern cities and the South West where industry leaders have been asking for help for years. Scotland has sucked up a lot of time and resources in recent years so I see no reason why the remaining parts of the UK shouldn’t use the freeing up of resources and cash to bolster the industries that remain in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

I suspect a break from Scotland may also be one of the first steps towards the UK leaving Europe as those political parties who lean to the right will end up with a greater majority over Labour and the Lib Dems.

RaveyDavey – Member

One thing that’s confusing me is the oil issue. Is it not the UK’s oil not just Scotlands? Will we have to roll into Scotland in tanks to get our share? It couldn’t happen here we’re far too civilised

I’m guessing that if Scotland breaks free the oil is ours in the same way Birmingham is yours;) geography and all that.

the way the armed forces are these days a bunch of bams in their fast and furious corsas will be able to hold you off at Gretna.

If the result is 49% Yes and 51% No, wouldn’t that be the worst possible outcome for all involved?

Some companies currently based in Scotland have already announced they’ll be moving out if there’s a Yes vote – Standard Life and Bank of Scotland being 2 significant examples.
Name change imminent?

The Bank of Not Scotland

Is there no togetherness, solidarity, unity?

They’re just replacing being British with being Scottish, still both collectives!!

Counterbalance

Can Salmond survive a No vote?

He’ll be the bloke thats torn a rift down the very middle of the community, divided families into us and them, patriotic and unpatriotic, the blame and recriminations will cast a shadow over Scotland for years to come.

If Scotland votes yes in the referendum there will no doubt be a lot of economic pain in the short term for the whole of the UK which I suspect will leave the Scottish with very few friends South of the border for a very long time. It is rather depressing that so many in Scotland seem happy to treat many years of shared history and achievement with such contempt and walk away from what has been a very productive relationship without a second thought.

So, you’ve completely missed the point of the referendum then? Don’t take it so personally, it’s not about you, it honestly isn’t.