Worst Winter for decades imminant?

They can’t reliably predict further than 5 days ahead, possibly 10, winter could go either way at the moment. I reckon its going to be mild overall 😀

These forecasts are dependent on a number of variables, the failure of any one of which will cause the model to pan out differently.

Also there is a fundamental misunderstanding of what a meteorologist means when (if!) they say ‘worst winter for decades likely’. Many of the public take it literally and start stocking up. Quite often what it actually means is ‘we ran the model 1000 times and 600 times the outcome was a winter where temperatures were lower and snowfalls were higher than the average over the last 30 years.’

Or summint like that.

Loads of berries on the trees this year, its supposed to be a sign of a bad winter.

If an easterly wind on St Swithin’s Day turns the leaves on the trees so that they are facing up, it will snow in March.

That one never fails, mark my words,

here’s a simple weather forecasting method that’s never wrong:

is it in the express? – then it’s bollocks.

Rowan berries are not only plentyful but they are the reddest ive seen them for years.

I’ve consulted my seaweed and apparently I’m going to spend all winter complaining about either the lack of snow, or the current excess of snow. There will be 1 day of perfect snow, which will occur while I’m in the office.

November 27th 2012

The express 😆

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

October 10th 2011

The express

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/276516/Britain-faces-a-mini-ice-age

November 2nd 2011

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/281196/Big-Siberian-freeze-to-hit-Britain

It’s not wrong,the weather is just a bit late.

i’m going half fat on the mtb.

I’ll be in a win/win situation.

Loads of berries on the trees this year, its supposed to be a sign of a bad winter.

Actually, it’s the sign of a really good summer. Compared to last year, certainly.
The Met Office have given up on long-range forecasts after getting it wrong so often; can anyone remember the ‘barbecue summer’ they promised? I think that was before two of the wettest summers in decades.

The didn’t promise any such thing. The media reported that they had, and people held them to a promise they never made.

They invented a technique for making very general loose predictions about the seasons with loads of caveats, but they stopped publishing them because the stupid public could not understand the terms of the forecast so ended up saying stuff like that ^

I like long term forecasts, I remember getting one for the august bank holiday weekend one year, in about february. They reported with 40% confidence that it’d be dark at night, brighter during the day.

As theories go

Forget it 😳 can’t link

Monty python Brontasaurus theory

CountZero – Member
Loads of berries on the trees this year, its supposed to be a sign of a bad winter.

Actually, it’s the sign of a really good summer. Compared to last year, certainly.
The Met Office have given up on long-range forecasts after getting it wrong so often; can anyone remember the ‘barbecue summer’ they promised? I think that was before two of the wettest summers in decades.

molgrips – Member
The didn’t promise any such thing. The media reported that they had, and people held them to a promise they never made.

They invented a technique for making very general loose predictions about the seasons with loads of caveats, but they stopped publishing them because the stupid public could not understand the terms of the forecast so ended up saying stuff like that ^

More to to the point is the papers tended rail on the Met office when forecasts didn’t turn out as the press presented them to be. But with stories like the one in the OP (and the Express makes ample use of this but the telegraph does to) is buy prewritten sensational weather stories from obscure weather agencies. These ‘agencies’ in some cases don’t even have any actual staff just a bunch of made up names and stock photos on their website – its just a guy typing out weather-words to order. Oddly these papers aren’t so critical when these predictions come to nothing as they no full well there isn’t anyone or anything to call into question.

For record, the original ‘barbecue summer’ press release from the met office did very much lay out the prediction in bold:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009