Why give Greece more cash?

That’s how it is when you borrow from the Mafia. Syriza were naive and imagined that the creditors would discuss the problem and solutions, when in fact they just wanted to inflict defeat on a non-conforming government.

Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans, as I said look at the UK / IMF loan in the 70’s – conditional on spending cuts. Greece was not trying to negotiate their offerings where farcical, the outcome we see today is exactly what Syriza had in mind.

If you don’t conform to the lenders terms you better have an alternative source of funds.

Referendum question has been published, very complicated and something the vast majority of people will not understand. “No” is the first answer which I am told is highly unusual.

No it’s not, if you knew anything about physics you’d realise it really isn’t

What makes you imagine you have any idea what I know or don’t know about physics? More fantasy on your part, just like what you imagine you know about Greek pensions. Are you a jamba sock puppet? A haircut has been ruled out 100 times by the EZ, despite being an essential feature of the IMF programme – no use now saying “if only you’d asked nicer”.

Can I just ask why the people that caused and profited from this aren’t all brought back to Greece and made to do public hard labour?

The Greek government have room to start reducing public expenditure on stuff like pensions and public sector pay and using that money to pump into the private side of the economy. If they came up with a credible plan

This is the trouble, what you describe as a credible plan is the further wholesale impoverishment of an entire population who through no fault of their own find themselves in this hellish situation. At what point does ‘credible’ become ‘inhuman’?

Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans

Practice your French:
http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2015/06/28/dsk-s-exprime-sur-la-grece-entre-mea-culpa-et-propositions_1338825

I have accused jamba of not knowing what the heck he is talking about

I believe you have and perhaps it reinforces your stereotype but I’ve close to 30 years in the business and worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan that was required by the UK regulator around 2010 for all banks, everyone is ready for this and has a plan.

Which comment exactly JY ? I decided to stay on topic but happy to be diverted again. Plenty of quotes and evidence to show old people die in the winter of many things but rarely from being cold and certainly not as @ernie implied “fuel poverty”. Overly hot weather is much more dangerous in of itself.

What makes you imagine you have any idea what I know or don’t know about physics?

Because you stated something utterly incorrect, that negotiating terms is like the laws of physics.

A haircut has been ruled out 100 times by the EZ

No it hasn’t, only as part of this round of negotiations, it has been mentioned it can be discussed but only once agreement on the current funding has been achieved.

I believe you have and perhaps it reinforces your stereotype but I’ve close to 30 years in the business

Scary, because based on the nonsense you’ve written on the subject, and the ignorance you’ve displayed, I wouldn’t trust you to wash my car.

Jus’ sayin’.

Because you stated something utterly incorrect, that negotiating terms is like the laws of physics.

No I didn’t. Read again.

No it hasn’t, only as part of this round of negotiations, it has been mentioned it can be discussed but only once agreement on the current funding has been achieved.

Factually incorrect.

The Greek government have room to start reducing public expenditure on stuff like pensions and public sector pay and using that money to pump into the private side of the economy. If they came up with a credible plan

Their ‘credible plan’ last week proposed 10% of cutting expenditure, and 90% increase in taxes. Not only do they famously not collect the tax due, all these new tax rises were not to be shouldered by individuals, but by business.

Now I’m not an economist, but if you’re economy has already contracted by 25% and the private sector is on its knees, its probably not the best idea to clobber what remains with enormous tax rises 😯

They must have known full well that this was in no way ‘credible’ and their wasn’t a cat in hells chance of it being approved

This is the trouble, what you describe as a credible plan is the further wholesale impoverishment of an entire population who through no fault of their own find themselves in this hellish situation. At what point does ‘credible’ become ‘inhuman’?

I think everyone agrees the Greek people are in a bad position right now, and no plan is a miracle cure, but you have to be looking at a solution that will in the mid to longer term turn the country around.

You also have to remember there are poor people in all the other EZ countries and they are all being asked to keeping funding the Greeks with no reform forthcoming, why should they??

Binners +1

Makes you wonder what their real political agenda is.

Jamby you seem to have forgotten to explain whether you think the wrong thing is right Are you still claiming the heat kills more than the cold ?
😆
Forgive me as I missed out the THM approach in possible outcomes, though you have yet to cry Troll when unable to defend your ludicrous views, and just default to ignore.
You were wrong and you know it yet you cannot bring yourself to admit it

that is why you are Mr 100% in correct
I will leave you to work out your own credibility score.
Tragic

Merkel can’t just let Greece off their debts without paying for it at the ballot box back home. Hence the whole thing is very complicated as wwhat might be best for Greece isn’t the same as what’s best for the European leader’s political standings at home.

I’ve close to 30 years in the business and worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan that was required by the UK regulator around 2010 for all banks, everyone is ready for this and has a plan.

And yet when I asked you to explain why an unelected former banker, Lucas Papademos, who was installed by the EU as Greek Prime Minister to implement the Troika’s austerity plan back in 2011, totally failed to resolve the crises, you were unable to do so.

About this hard labour…

Don’t you think some Greeks feel like that would be fair?

jambalaya – Member
worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan

aaaahhhh, now we know why it’s all turned in to a bit of a mess! 😆

What were you playing at?

You also have to remember there are poor people in all the other EZ countries and they are all being asked to keeping funding the Greeks with no reform forthcoming, why should they??

A race to the bottom then? Of course this suits the bankers and financiers who couldn’t possibly consider being out of pocket for the trivial matter of feeding, clothing and housing a few million people. Playing off the poor of one country against another an excellent way of distracting people from those at the top who are really at fault.

Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans

Really? In 2013, Lagarde was very clear that both the IMF and the EU had miscalculated the damage that their policy recommendations would have on Greece. In her report, “Pas de merde, Sherlock” she described 2011 as a lost year and noted that the had overridden their normal rules when providing assistance to Greece.”

So they BY THEIR OWN ADMISSION, they are partly culpable – rather than being consistent, they broke their own rules and now it’s come back to haunt them. Her career will be defined ultimately by this failure. Tant pis.

Oops, missed the fact that Greece only has €2bn in FX reserves. A new currency under that scenario is going to be a bloody weak one!

The polarised arguments on here are no different to those between Syriza and EU and IMF.

The polarised arguments on here are no different to those between Syriza and EU and IMF.

Syriza is not hostile to the EU and the Euro, it supports both very strongly. Much of the “differences” are based purely on linguistic terminology. For example when Tsipras claimed “the Troika is over” what he meant was that he was replacing the term “Troika” with the term “the institutions”.

Likewise when the EU obligingly changed the name of their austerity packages from a “Memorandum of Understanding” to simply a “programme” Tsipras was able to claim a victory in defeating the EU austerity packages.

In reality there isn’t that much which separates them.

Are you still claiming the heat kills more than the cold ?

I know it gets pretty cold in (It’s All Greek And There Is No Country Called) Macedonia, but iirc down by Athens on the islands the winter is pretty mild. I wouldn’t be surprised if in Greece the heat killed more old people than cold weather.

But of course there is a simple factual answer to this if only someone could be bothered to look for the statistics.

you dont need to a simple google [ already provided in my first reply] will provide the answer
Hot weather kills more people than cold

Google the bold bit

This is the first hit

May 20, 2015
Source:
The Lancet
Summary:
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.

somewhat surprising that moderately hot or cold is the most dangerous!

this is a better link to the actual paper
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/21/an-inconvenient-truth-from-medical-research-cold-is-far-worse-than-global-warming-at-killing-people/

The study also found that extreme temperatures were responsible for less than 1% of all deaths, while mildly sub-optimal temperatures accounted for around 7% of all deaths — with most (6.66% of all deaths) related to moderate cold.

According to Dr Gasparrini, “Current public-health policies focus almost exclusively on minimizing the health consequences of heat waves. Our findings suggest that these measures need to be refocused and extended to take account of a whole range of effects associated with temperature.”

For clarity i have highlighted the most supportive text from the entire article which is an interesting , and mixed, read ;cherry picking is a fair claim
However what Jam said was wrong though the results surprised me
Still he has chatted to some friends and forgotten what we are discussing so what do the facts matter

I wouldn’t be surprised if in Greece the heat killed more old people than cold weather.

But of course there is a simple factual answer to this if only someone could be bothered to look for the statistics.

If you had been following the thread more closely you would have probably realised that we weren’t talking about Greece with regards to deaths and fuel poverty.

See :

jambalaya – Member

Europe faces more serious issues from terrorism so it’s time to end the distraction that Greece has become and kick them out of the EU, NATO too if they keep copying up with Russia.

ernie_lynch – Member

The threat from terrorism is insignificant – fuel poverty for example kills far more than terrorism does.

Indeed it is the perceived terrorist threat which is used as a distraction to the real issues facing Europe.

So does that mean you won the argument because you were right about something that has nothing to do with the actual Greek finance issue? Have you thought about getting a job as a negotiator?

Great thread, am learning lots. 🙂

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/29/where-did-the-greek-bailout-money-go

Interesting read here on the mess.

European banks just love lending to unstable African regimes etc etc to make miney

@hora – of course, a business model tried and tested by the Mafia. The mobster is an old German guy and not Al Pacino, but the script is the same.

And then Bonio pops up and says African debt should be written off.

He’s no idea.

€34bn was used to pay for various “sweeteners” to get the the deal accepted. That €34bn was added to the Greek debt

Its an enormous amount in itself. I can see now- the European banks will state that they may suffer/be at risk if the debt isn’t paid or honoured thus causing problems in our home countries. I wonder if any would ask for compensation or a bail out, take legal action against? (if possible?).

So I wonder- how much of the Greek debt is interest and how much of the repayments is interest? The best thing the Greeks can do is default and leave the euro. Its the only thing. Once you’ve got a massive debt on credit cards you can only service the debt for so long.

The best thing the Greeks can do is default and leave the euro.

Agree. The alternative would be as advocated by the IMF and write off the debt to manageable levels, but this has been excluded by the EU, and the IMF have not pressed the point. The whole affair has been treated as an opportunity for German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece.

Bruised and battered rather than polished egos – all the main players have failed so far

German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece.

Not just polishing ego’s. They’re more importantly asserting that they’re the biggest swinging dicks in town, and what they say go’s. The Germans in particular have used this as a warning to the weaker Euro economies to do as they’re bloody well told. Or else! Nobody will be allowed to jepordise the grand project. No matter what price they end up paying.

I don’t think the crisis has been handled great, but at least in some ways the EZ have managed to try to ring fence Greece and stop the complete collapse of the EZ. With the banks in massive problems in 2010 what was the alternative, let them collapse?

Can we just knock on the head as well that creditors haven’t suffered any losses, from Hora’s link it was €76bn.

Private bondholders saw the value of their bonds drop by 53% and took a further loss by exchanging the debt for securities with a lower interest rate.

This eliminated about €100bn of debt, but €34bn was used to pay for various “sweeteners” to get the the deal accepted.

“The whole affair has been treated as an opportunity for German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece.” Don’t fully agree with this, there’s more than Germans and dutch to be persuaded to dig deep into their countries pockets (again).

All the politicians have to look to there own electorate, how would you explain that to many piss poor voter in the rest of Europe. The Greek MPs have a clear mandate but so do those in the rest of Europe, especially those that have been through the EZ enforced austerity. I wonder what view the Greeks took of the Irish bail out, how did there politicians at the EU vote and act?

It’s all about perception (not the actuality), though I think the Greeks have done well to get this far they not managed the perception well of those who’ll have to stump up the cash. Shame really.
My view has not really changed from the start, the Germans who have had nearly all the benefits of being in the euro should pay out a shed load more and the Greeks need to give in a little to help the Germans believe there doing the right thing. I could be wrong of course. 🙂

Are the banks underwriting their own debt in this? Or is someone else? i.e. institutions etc hedging against a fail and insuring the debt to pay out? (whats the expert/financial term for this?). IF so its bad.

Debt will be insured using Credit default swaps which will be written by the banks so its a case of who is left holding the baby.

@hora, Non Greek banks have virtually no exposure to Greek government debt and similarly their exposure to Greek corporates are quite limited and focused on international businesses with non Greek cash flows outside the country. The vast majority of exposure to Greece lies with Greek banks, The eurozone and the IMF. The markets (investors, banks etc) have spent the last 5+ years ensuring they have very limited exposure to Greece. In the prior bailout fudge CDS was not triggered so @hobster I think most market participants don’t trust that as viable credit insurance so would rather have zero exposure than reply on CDS. Certainly that was my experience / strategy – just get out / minimise any direct or indirect exposure.

It seems the banks being shut (and they are not going to open Monday 6th, I can’t see how they would even post a Yes vote as bailout needs to be agreed nad voted on by EU parliaments and Tsipras cannot be credible after a Yes so more elections needed) has come as a surprise to many Greeks. I feel sad for them that they did not realise this is what would happen. There as a commentator last night that said independent of the referendum result Greek banks are likely to be shut till August which seems quite possible to me.

So the Greeks want to stay in the euro but not face financial discipline, that’s an OXI-moron. FWIW the second word sums up my view of the current Greek government especially it’s finance minister.

Ah cheers. the prime minister with his rhetoric- I can see him surviving all this in the eyes of the Greek people. Hes quite savvy- (politician savvy). True?

FWIW the second word sums up my view of the current Greek government especially it’s finance minister.

“FWIW” – i.e. more or less nothing. It would be more convincing if you actually had some logical analysis of what he has written, and not just empty ad hominem.

DIY: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story