a new variant emerging that evades the current tests

No this would not be true. The PCR test measures three genes, not just the spike protein. The UK variant (alpha) was identified by missing the S-gene (S Gene Target Failures or SGTF) and still seeing the (N)ucleocapsid and the Open Reading Frame (ORF) genes. I think it extremely unlikely that a new variant would appear which did not register at least one of those three genes. But I could be wrong, I just think it very unlikely.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Patients admitted to hospital based on symptoms rather than test results shokka! When do you think they might get their first proper COVID test…?

Agree that is doesn’t seem crazy, but the proportions weren’t what I would have expected. I had thought that if you ended up in hospital with Covid that you would probably already know that you have it.

– people who are vaccinated and think that means they can’t catch it
– people who have previously had Covid symptoms and think they can’t get it again
– symptoms have changed with new variants but advice not updated
– symptoms are different for younger cohorts

And, of course, people might assume they have Covid, but not get a test ’till hospitalised. If I was properly ill at home I wouldn’t be going down to the test centre for a PCR test. If things went down hill, and I went to hospital… I wouldn’t go and get a test first, I’d expect that to happen there.

Thanks @TiRed and @kelvin. Optimism was getting in the way of critical thinking 🙂

Optimism was getting in the way of critical thinking

You are Boris Johnson, and the Telegraph is your past and future employer… and I claim my £5.

😉

There is a lot of optimism about the current peak… Except in a piece in the Spectator of all places. I’m less optimistic personally. The rate of change of new cases is faster than ever seen previously for three lockdowns. That could be because vaccination has put a harder brake on things. And schools. And football. But I am unconvinced.

@TiRed – that Spectator article is great, thanks

Except in a piece in the Spectator of all places.

That is a bit of a shokka, appearing where it does!

It’s a decent article. I mentioned looking for the ongoing Bolton curve a couple of pages back, with the idea that areas which got Delta first are a decent snapshot for how things play out elsewhere, and am still inwardly expecting that to be roughly the template for what the rest of the country experiences over the next month or so (caveats about differing local vaccination rates, behaviour and relative deprivation, of course).

I’m cynical of the recent case drop, but I hope I’m wrong. My theory focuses on the population not getting PCR tested (and/or performing poor LF tests at home that give negative results) unless they really have to or they feel genuinely unwell, in order to not have summer holidays/nightclubbing etc. plans messed up.

Schools stayed open (as best they could) in Bolton, didn’t they? This summer will be all about false hope that it’s over… as real cases plateau (agree that the current drop might be a false drop due to testing patterns changing), and then hopefully fall next month… but we will know nothing for sure ’till late September, early October, in England.

This really shows how big the impact of the Euro’s was
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1419912847795146760

Hospitalisations dropping steadily up here now.

sigh…… Australia update….. beep beep boop

Things are getting a bit tense here in NSW!

Cases are risking steadily – 177 new cases today, about half of which were in isolation for their entire infections period.
The 11th fatality of the current outbreak has been announced.

8 local government areas are now under “strict” lockdown, with people unable to leave those areas, even for work (unless they are an essential worker).

Building sites can open again (except in those 8 areas) – and tradespeople can go back into peoples homes (under certain conditions). No scientific reason for the reversal of that decision – I think the construction industry are good at “lobbying”.

Year 12 (which I think is lower-sixth?) will be returning in 2 weeks – and as such are to be vaccinated (using our scarce pfizer supplies) as a priority

The AZ vaccine can be accessed via walk-in clinics at local pharmacies etc. It will be interesting to see the uptake in this.

In other news…… one of the teachers from my kids childcare centres was designated as a “close contact”, sending the whole flippin centre home while things were cleaned and people were tested. Fortunately, the teacher was negative – so a bullet-dodged there from all perspectives. I appreciate that this is the reality of peoples covid experience in the UK – but we haven’t experienced this over here until now. Fortunately everyone at work was really accomodating – but lets see what happens the fifth time around!

The good news is that people here finally seem to be realizing that this is our reality until the % vaccinated goes up. Some people are still talking about a stricter lockdown being needed to get the numbers down to zero – but it feels like more are beginning to understand that lockdowns are only going to act to slow the spread until the vaccinated population increases.

@n0b0dy0ftheg0at – I had exactly the same thought. Combined with a sense of ‘does it really matter now’ since all restrictions are gone and so many are vaccinated

Lots of people deleting the app and not getting tested as they have holidays booked? Maybe.

@batfink Tougher times in NSW but the BBC reports restrictions elsewhere are being eased as its been “contained”?

Sadly you are now facing the reality of our lives for the last 12 months, albeit still from a much lower level of infection. The BBC report suggested that the Sydney outbreak is too far gone to be contained and pulled back now?

Not sure how Australia has got it so wrong after getting it so right. I thought the idea was to bring up the drawbridge until the vaccine was available that get that out asap. Clearly the drawbridge was only going to be able to stay up for so long. Is the low vaccinated percentage a consequence of poor purchasing by government or population apathy in taking it?

Not sure how Australia has got it so wrong after getting it so right. I thought the idea was to bring up the drawbridge until the vaccine was available that get that out asap. Clearly the drawbridge was only going to be able to stay up for so long. Is the low vaccinated percentage a consequence of poor purchasing by government or population apathy in taking it?

I’ve commented on this before… it’s a combination of (avoidable) issues, and one unavoidable one:

Vaccine procurement was very poor – all of the eggs were in the AZ basket

Very, very, very (almost unbelievably) bad government communication campaign re: vaccines. The press have been going to town on the AZ clotting issue, and the (Tory equivalent) government have been utterly silent on it.

Because of that, the vaccination of the older age group (plus care workers etc) ground to a halt….. and the federal government were asleep at the wheel – didn’t take any steps to address.

Because we’d been so successful at keeping the virus out – people didn’t (and still don’t really) understand why that can’t be a long-term plan. Because we weren’t in lockdown, and rafts of people dying each day, there was no real burning need (some people thought) to get vaccinated, particularly with a vaccine with such widely publicised side effects.

And then delta arrived – and our containment steps weren’t up to it.

Obviously, I got my vaccine at the very first available opportunity, but the vaccination rate in boomers is appalling – and they’ve had the last 6 months to get it

Have we done Ireland offering vaccines to children over 12?

Presumably they have the same risk data as the UK.

Have Ireland got the right stocks of vaccines to deliver it? (I’m all for vaccinating 12-18 year old, but think I read it was a supply issue as much as anything else)

All the EU states now have the stocks to deliver it. They’re being delivered equally, besides, the Irish make the stuff:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/ireland-central-to-new-eu-deal-on-pfizer-vaccines-1.4570283

(I’m all for vaccinating 12-18 year old, but think I read it was a supply issue as much as anything else)

But… that’s not what we’re being told, is it?

Our government have messed up here… because they don’t want to admit it’s a supply issue… getting vaccine supply and rollout correct is all they have to crow about, and don’t want to admit any issue. So, what happens when we have more supply of Pfizer? After telling the public that the case for vaccinating teens isn’t there? [ just don’t look at what other countries are doing ] Does the government reverse ferret and expect parents to put their kids forward after being told there wasn’t a good case for doing so?

Does the government reverse ferret and expect parents to put their kids forward after being told there wasn’t a good case for doing so?

Quite possibly…..

Yes that’s exactly what they will do, and then wonder why uptake us low.

So after the 16th if you’ve been jabbed you don’t need to isolate if you are a contact but you do need to PCR test? So we will now run out of test capacity again as this will be a big number?

So after the 16th if you’ve been jabbed you don’t need to isolate if you are a contact but you do need to PCR test? So we will now run out of test capacity again as this will be a big number?

Will be so few people using the app that it will be a very small number….

So after the 16th if you’ve been jabbed you don’t need to isolate if you are a contact but you do need to PCR test?

Will you still need to isolate while you await your test result? If there’s masses of demand the time that takes could rise considerably. Isolation by stealth?

The covid app today is only advisory to isolate and get tested, it is not a legal requirement to isolate if you are pinged by the app. Simply because as it’s not managed by a central database to control no one other than the owner of the phone the app is on will know if its pinged a positive close contact or not.

From the 16th if you are contacted by T&T and told you’re a contact of someone who has tested positive then you will not be required to isolate if you’re double jabbed. You are advised to get a test but only advisory, so in effect you can ignore the call if double jabbed.

so in effect you can ignore the call if double jabbed

But don’t.

The PCR test measures three genes, not just the spike protein. The UK variant (alpha) was identified by missing the S-gene (S Gene Target Failures or SGTF) and still seeing the (N)ucleocapsid and the Open Reading Frame (ORF) genes. I think it extremely unlikely that a new variant would appear which did not register at least one of those three genes. But I could be wrong, I just think it very unlikely.

That’s the kind of answer I was hoping for, that there are multiple paths to identification in the current test. Puts my mind at ease slightly at least.

But then stuff like this make me worried again:

Javid admits he’s a bit clueless on where things are heading.

If they don’t know whether things are good or bad why are they ploughing forward with relaxation of rules and allowing people from other countries to fly in without quarantine? It’s almost like they haven’t done the analysis but have done it for political reasons.

I am proof that double jabbed still get it and still transmit. (I had symptoms first and now whole family have it, including my double jabbed wife, bar my 5 year old…..)

I have had a properly rough 8 days, today I slept most of the day, just couldnt stay awake and i am knackered walking quickly up the stairs.

The view seems to be that double jabbed is bulletproof and its not, so will this lead to more people being more lax about preventative measures and more getting it?

Javid’s approach? Make no predictions… claim any result as a success.

– cases keep rising ; claim it as a success that hospitalisations brought forward away from the winter (just talk over everyone saying those health events are mostly avoidable)

– cases plateau ; claim everything is under control (ignore those talking about the long term burden on healthcare of all that avoidable long covid)

– cases fall ; claim this as evidence that there was no need to continue with simple measures like mask wearing on public transport after all (get new stories ready to explain any problems occurring in the next academic year because we didn’t take advantage of the summer break to drive down infections and vaccinate the young)

The view seems to be that double jabbed is bulletproof

First I hope you and your family recover OK. Second, this was never the case. The vaccine increased protection from serious illness, and increased protection from death. It was never bullet proof, it just gave you a much better chance once infected than without.

@convert – another issue in Oz has been that while the drawbridge is supposedly down, people are coming in under certain circumstances but they’re forced to quarantine in hotels. Most of the cases seem to be leaking out of these hotels, issues with a/c meaning a family are getting infected without even leaving their room. And of course Delta is making this worse.

What’s been really strange is that in Queensland now we’ve had a few instances of Delta infected people spending significant times in the community without (so far!) any real spread. Sure, we’re all supposed to be masked up and being careful, but I saw two scaffolders sharing a ciggy yesterday, so people clearly aren’t paying that much attention

Vaccination rates are interesting. The Northern Territory is renowned for being a bit like the wild west. It has low population levels and is very isolated, so I would have expected that they would have low vaccination rates due to attitude and difficulties with delivering vaccines, yet they’ve got the highest rates of all parts of Australia.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

Might be a case of where you’re getting your news from but….

The view seems to be that double jabbed is bulletproof and its not

Where’s this view out of curiosity as I’m not seeing it? Always seen that a notable and fairly wide range % are prone to being infected even double jabbed but should have a “reasonably” high protection against hospitalisation/mortality but again, definitely not what I’d think of as bullet proof.

e.g. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.

Which was my top Google hit and not the only %’s you’ll find.

Might be a case of where you’re getting your news from but….

My guess is from headlines rather than actual reports and interviews. Even our incompetent ministers talk about reducing the risk of hospitalisation and serious illness, but headline writers transform it into “freedom day” etc.

Another double jabbed (AZ) but infected here. Started showing symptoms 10/07/21 and tested positive (LF & then PCR next day), as did both kids but they were relatively asymptomatic. Wife tested negative all the way through (daily LF tests due to her work).

I’m still feeling battered almost a month down the line, resting heart rate is high, get out of breath stupidly easily climbing stairs etc, and still get really tired physically and mentally very easily. The team at the test centre I went to here in Bristol said they’re seeing lots of people coming through whore double jabbed.

Anecdotally, we know from school parents’ FB group that lots are deleting app or not testing if contacts / symptoms so as not to mess up their holidays. **** idiots prolonging it.

. **** idiots prolonging it.

Not sure they are prolonging it, it isn’t going away, but they are being bloody stupid.

One of our double jabbed managers has got it, pretty rough a week on apparently

One of my double jabbed colleagues caught it, unpleasant cold like symptoms, carried on working, from home.