you’ve been isolating for a long while dannyboy!

First chavmobile I could think of!

I have friends who haven’t (or hadn’t) vaccinated. Their choice and a few times I’ve thought of dropping them a line to say the local centre is doing walk-ins, for instance, but ultimately they’re grown-ups and it’s their choice. I do hope they don’t suffer for it though.

I do hope they don’t suffer for it though.

This sadly is where the muddled thinking is…..they may or may not suffer but that is a personal choice you can make like deciding to be a sky diver or not. What should be keeping them up at night is if they don’t take it and pass covid on to someone unintentionally and they suffer. Clearly still possible having been vaccinated, but not as easily.

Electing not to be vaccinated to me is akin to drink driving. You might well hurt yourself with the choice and if that’s all it was that would be fine. But you might easily hurt the family member in the passenger seat too, or the random member of the public you don’t know until you hit them. Chances are you won’t hurt anyone but you might – and with drink driving the risk to others makes it socially irresponsible.

Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

my guess would be there’s now no football

Sadly the chap involved lost his aunt and uncle to this thing last year. I agree – my worst fear alongside suffering long term effects has been passing it on to someone less able to deal with it than I might be. I’m in no hurry to see them again. 😟

Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

My guess is that under 18s are no longer testing twice a week for school. So fewer tests being done so fewer positive results found. Didn’t the drop in Scotland start when the school broke up there as well.

There’s definitely a dip in the number of tests that correlate with the dip in cases. If you go by percentages though it’s still higher but the only reliable indicator now is the numbers in hospital, they can’t really manipulate that as yet.

My guess is that under 18s are no longer testing twice a week for school. So fewer tests being done so fewer positive results found. Didn’t the drop in Scotland start when the school broke up there as well.

The test will presumably be if hospitalisation and deaths follow on 3-4 weeks time.

Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

My thoughts, without data…

A reverse in national attitude to testing intent.

Tests were being used to find covid and reduce transmission. Symptoms would mean a test and isolation. People tested because they thought they could have it.

More tests now are being used to access social life. So people are testing when they think they don’t have it, tests to show they’re clear. And with lesser symptoms after jabs, some are avoiding tests when they might have it to avoid isolating with holidays and other socials booked.
“Pingdemic” language has redefined the problem as having to isolate, not having covid.

“Pingdemic” language has redefined the problem as having to isolate, not having covid.

The willingness of just about every media outlet to help with this has been a bit of an eye opener for me. I’m not even sure they were all aware they were doing it… just nodding along to “this week’s story” without any real analysis of what they were doing, and the likely result… making our laughable track/trace/isolate system even less successful than it already was.

Zoe data isn’t showing the same trend, no downturn yet which is odd…

@morecashthandash Very true with the hospitalization being the better indicator.

We could have got to herd immunity with 9/10 adults having antibodies, it would be better if they included children in the data. But as long as the numbers keep going in the correct direction its good.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021

From your link, Kentishman

It is not yet known how having detectable antibodies, now or at some time in the past, affects the chance of becoming infected or experiencing symptoms, as other parts of the immune system (T cell response) will offer protection.

It’s good that a lot of people have detectable antibodies, but I’m sure that it doesn’t directly translate to effective immunity as part of a herd. We know that someone who caught Covid in 2020 may well be susceptible to Delta, even though they have antibodies. Pretty much everyone vaccinated with a single dose will have detectable antibodies, but we know that this is relatively ineffective against catching or transmitting Delta.

It’s not a bad thing – every little helps, and if a high antibody+ % was an effective barrier to transmission, then we would be almost there. Unfortunately, we’ve a little way to go, and a new variant can make it even harder, as can waning immunity among those who caught it or were vaccinated a while back.

The recent fall in positive tests is not an indicator that this wave is starting to run out of steam, unless it is confirmed by a similar fall in hospitalisations/deaths over the next few weeks.

The recent fall in positive tests is not an indicator that this wave is starting to run out of steam, unless it is confirmed by a similar fall in hospitalisations/deaths over the next few weeks.

Which is exactly what we’re seeing in Scotland.

Let’s hope so. I keep looking at current data for places like Bolton to gauge the shape of this particular curve, as I’d expect other places which started later to pretty much follow this pattern.

By scaling from the past alpha peak over Christmas, and shifting cases, admissions and deaths to align based on their individual peaks, I produced the following scaled/shifted plot. Since it’s on a log2 scale you can read off doubling and halving times as each crossing of a y-axis gridline.

Deaths have fallen much faster than cases and admissions during lockdown. There was an 18-week period from peak to trough and (perhaps) another 12-week period to peak of Wave 3. Cases have been growing almost twice as fast as admissions. deaths accelerated and caught up with admissions. If this is a peak in cases, then there are another 10-days for admissions and 21 days for deaths. Hope it makes sense.

@TiRed

If this is a peak in cases, then there are another 10-days for admissions and 21 days for deaths. Hope it makes sense.

Can I just check my understanding?

So, another 10 days till admissions peak, another 21 for deaths to peak?

Sydney update:

145 cases in NSW yesterday – it has been around that on each day over the weekend too – the numbers are rising slowly/steadily, but are not shooting-up (yet?). Two deaths yesterday – including a young lady in her early thirties with no underlying conditions, which has shocked people.

I hate to say it – but it was going to need people to start dying for people to feel compelled to get vaccinated, particularly as the risks of the AZ vaccine (which we can produce domestically) have been very highly/over publicized.

At last, the need to get vaccinated NOW is being pushed front and center of the debate.

We had an “anti-lockdown” demonstration in the city on Saturday…. about 3,500 **** who’s message seems to be that they don’t like being in lockdown. Well, no shit – nobody does.

An enraged NSW Police Minister David Elliott branded the participants in the illegal protest “a whole lot of halfwits”.

Organisers had applied for a permit to hold the protest, but it was rejected by NSW Police.

Deputy Commissioner Gary Worboys today said police had issued 510 infringement notices in the past 24 hours with “the vast majority of those to people whose behaviour yesterday in and around Sydney could only be described as violent, filthy behaviour, risky behaviour”.

about 3,500 **** who’s message seems to be that they don’t like being in lockdown. Well, no shit – nobody does.

It’s such a retarded approach. What do they think they’re going to achieve … aside from increasing the spread of the virus and therefore the potential length of the lockdown/s?

Probably one for TiRed to answer:

I heard via a family friend (who is a retired pharmacist) that there is a serious worry that the drop in detected cases could be down to a new variant emerging that evades the current tests. Is that a reasonable assumption as it would be just as dangerous as a new variant that evades the vaccine. We’ve had plenty of research chucked at further vaccine development and booster jabs but the tests have stayed the same since they were launched and are still not 100% reliable.

If Covid does learn how to become stealthy then it will run rampant again, putting us back to pretty much square one.

a serious worry that the drop in detected cases could be down to a new variant emerging that evades the current tests

You would think the Zoe app data would pick this up, since it tracks symptoms rather than PCR tests. Unless there’s a new variant that both evades tests and is symptom-less.

@ reluctanthumper

Going to stick my neck out here and for Lords sake let’s not mistake my no doubt faulty logic for fact…

I very, very much doubt it’s because of a new variant being able to evade Covid tests.

Variants emerge and become dominant due to being able to exploit their human hosts to a more beneficial degree. To the virus I mean.

Unless testing itself is causing a variant to escape I just can’t see it whatsoever. I doubt testing in itself pressures the virus enough to allow it an escape path, for want of a better phrase?

Warning: The above are just my thoughts born out of this thread and various late night documentaries over the years.

It’s such a retarded approach. What do they think they’re going to achieve … aside from increasing the spread of the virus and therefore the potential length of the lockdown/s?

Your use of the word ‘think’ is touching in a naive sort of way.

So, another 10 days till admissions peak, another 21 for deaths to peak?

Correct. Unless by some magic the lag between cases and admissions and admissions and deaths changes. It didn’t for the nadir.

Today Mrs Baron as had to put up with the “no ones the boss of me” non maskers on the train, the usual “it’s too hard to steer” drivers trying to kill her (her bike MUST give way to cars, when said cars are on wrong side of road), being coughed and wheezed all over as she scans patients and, AND being blown up by **** nutters.

Linky

I so hope it isn’t antvax/covid denier related and is just some normal, middle of the road, terrorist loony, or my wafer thin tolerance for basket case bullshiters will, I fear, vanish.

On the flip side… we all clapped for her. Is that not enough?

On the flip side… we all clapped for her. Is that not enough?

Indeed. Who needs a cost of living pay rise when you have been given the clap by Boris?

But getting the clap from Boris might mean getting a much bigger pay off in about 9 months time. He has done it often enough that his lawyers must have a standard proforma to fill out

Wow, even by Stoke standards that’s pretty mental.

It was a slow hand clap and he was grinning all over his fat face as he did it, knowing it was meaningless bullshit to keep the proles happy for a bit longer.

Just like everything the feckless, lazy, contemptuous fraud does.

You would think the Zoe app data would pick this up, since it tracks symptoms rather than PCR tests. Unless there’s a new variant that both evades tests and is symptom-less.

Zoe is still going up isn’t it, it hasn’t seen the drop

So cases continue to drop quickly which on the face of things is really good news. But why? I really want to know, is it reduced testing or do we have a real fall in cases? Is the virus running out of hosts vs vaccine? Even science was predicting a mid-late August peak with 100’000 cases – so what’s changed, and will it go back up with the Freedom effect?

Football over, good weather so folks outdoors, running out of hosts hopefully…. Who knows, but I don’t think it’ll be just one reason (except, well, vaccine!).

Got my 2nd jag today, good to see lots of young folks in the queue. 🙏🏻

Even if there is an artificially reducing effect on numbers due to reduced testing… you’d still expect real cases to be flat by the end of this week, and falling in August. The models showing a continued doubling rate were dumb, and failed to take into account changes in mass mixing events… not least education settings (and travelling to and from education settings). As I keep saying… everyone (except for those working in hospitals dealing with the lag in admissions and discharges, and scientists on top of how this virus is actually spread rather than looking at simple models) will be assuming this is all over next month. We won’t really know if that is true ’till the schools, colleges and university have been back at least three weeks. The summer holiday patterns will tell us very little.

There is a precedent for the emergence of a strain which wasn’t picked up by tests: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/france-finds-variant-in-brittany-that-evades-standard-tests

Has a delta variant had the same or a similar mutation and then spread successfully? Given PCR tests are a critical part of our epidemic control testing negative would be a definite advantage for a strain of the virus.

How do they know they contained it? [ not suggesting they haven’t, just intriged how you go about that when PCR tests aren’t useful ]

Interesting story on hospital figures in the Telegraph this morning (paywalled).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/26/exclusive-half-covid-hospitalisations-tested-positive-admission/

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.

UK is very good for sequencing positive cases to see what variant is behind them – until the recent wave picked up, we were sequencing about half the new positives.

While it’s not impossible for variants to evade one or more of the genetic markers that the tests look for, if you had a variant that was missing all three, you’d expect to be seeing a greater-than-expected number of people turning up at hospital with covid symptoms but testing negative, which would trigger some investigation.

The reasons for the current dip in positives (and possibly hospitalisations) could be a combination of people not bothering to self-test, or simply that schools were a far bigger driver of infections than anyone was prepared to admit, and coupled with the good weather, R0 has fallen back. Behavioural changes can also not be what they appear – we’ve all see where people seem to be mixing more, but we don’t see the opposite side of the coin, people who are choosing to mix less at the moment. The lack of a mask mandate and higher prevalence means I’m picking and choosing which shops to visit, and how often, for example, whereas previously I was shopping more.

as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

Ill people don’t know why they’re ill ’till they’re diagnosed? Doesn’t seem crazy to me… but as it’s the Telegraph, presumably they think that means something else to the “died with Covid not of Covid” crowd.

Ill people don’t know why they’re ill ’till they’re diagnosed? Doesn’t seem crazy to me… but as it’s the Telegraph, presumably they think that means something else to the “died with Covid not of Covid” crowd.

The article goes on to say:

Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.

Agree that is doesn’t seem crazy, but the proportions weren’t what I would have expected. I had thought that if you ended up in hospital with Covid that you would probably already know that you have it.