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  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Great news! Summer is coming…

    Premier Icon Bunnyhop
    Free Member

    poopscoop – what a dilemma.
    My thoughts are; Wait until your mother has her second vaccination. You will be allowed in her garden (or any outdoor space) with her younger relatives by that date, then thrust you instincts. Maybe in that open space you’ll feel its right for a hug, or, you may feel that them all being near her is enough. You can gauge the reaction of everyone in this scenario then.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    Wait until your mother has her second vaccination

    A first vaccination confers significant protection against morbidity, not necessarily infection. There has been too much focus on prevention of transmission and infections. Not unreasonable, given past experience of vaccines. But that’s not how coronavirus vaccines are used in animals (and they are widely used). They are protective against serious (economic) disease first. You can learn a lot from chickens.

    As to assessment of efficacy – PHE are looking at records from those vaccinated and those who are not. Following cohorts from digital records and counting events. Not a clinical trial in my normal sense. An observational cohort study. Data shows already that risk of infection goes up very slightly immediately at vaccination – you’ve gone somewhere there are other people, but then falls as immunity sets in. The reduction in hospitalisations is key here. This is what is keeping us at home. Seeing that fall due to lockdown, but faster than last year is very encouraging. But is it compliance? Immunity? Vaccination?…

    Probably a mix of the above.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    It seems (simple observation of data, not analysis) that the deaths are falling faster than cases & hospital admissions. That must be a good thing too, no?

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    I’d speculate that all would be falling faster than the extrapolated rate, but because the most at risk (ie everyone except teachers – sorry, couldn’t resist) are being vaccinated deaths as a proportion of cases is now reducing as the cases are now proportionally higher in the less at risk groups. But that data would exist if anyone could be bothered to find it.

    Hospitalisations may be trickier – because possibly people who weren’t admitted previously due to lack of space now are being – so hospitalisations are more linked to capacity than need?

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    That must be a good thing too, no?

    Indeed it is. Today’s all-cause mortality has fallen too
    Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
    2021 17,751 18,042 18,676 18,448 17,192 15,354 13,809
    2015-19 12,175 13,822 13,216 12,760 12,206 11,925 11,627

    So 2182 deaths above five-year trend, has almost halved in a week. This are registrations, but it’s an impressive effect.

    Premier Icon ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Am I the only one who thinks that the Govt have done a poor job clearly communicating what the vaccine does and doesn’t do?

    It’s 3 months since the first dose and over 20M doses have been administered yet there is some confusion.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    There’s a fine line to tread between messages to boost confidence in the jab, both in terms of safety and efficacy, and caveats about transmission and the need for continued caution. At the moment I think that they (rightly), are keen to hype it up to maximise uptake in vulnerable groups. Which seems to have worked pretty well.

    Once they are confident about coverage in these demographics, which should seriously reduce hospitalisations and mortality, perhaps we’ll see more nuanced messaging.

    Premier Icon uponthedowns
    Free Member

    Data shows already that risk of infection goes up very slightly immediately at vaccination – you’ve gone somewhere there are other people, but then falls as immunity sets in.

    This was seen also in Israel but they reckoned it was due to idiots or the misinformed thinking they were immune as soon as they were vaccinated and doing things like hugging grand kids straight away. I don’t think our government are doing enough to educate people their behavior mustn’t change just because they have been vaccinated and especially shouldn’t change within 3 weeks after vaccination.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    perhaps we’ll see more nuanced messaging

    They’ll also know more… confidence about what the vaccine(s) can do is increasing all the time.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    We are very straight with people when vaccinating them that they must still follow the rules and have no protection for 2 weeks minimum.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    From the guardian:

    Brazil variant can evade 25% to 61% of protection got after original Covid infection, research suggests

    What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Am I the only one who thinks that the Govt have done a poor job clearly communicating what the vaccine does and doesn’t do?

    It’s 3 months since the first dose and over 20M doses have been administered yet there is some confusion.

    I got mine this morning, people were saying things like “so good to get back to normal” so yep. We got two leaflets about side effects and a little chat which was really all the same but nothing in any of that about “it doesn’t change any of the rules”. Which everyone ought to know, but clearly lots of folks don’t.

    And frankly yes the Uk government messaging is a huge part of that. And now there’s this unchecked “back to normal for summer”- music festivals and big events on, that sort of thing, assumptions of what will be happening months from now.

    The vaccine rollout’s been well done imo but the vaccine/ongoing covid messaging is right back to “all over by christmas”

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?

    Immune evasion is based on antibody titer – numbers of serum doubling dilutions that still stop viral growth. There is evidence of reduced titers with emergent strains. The effect is about 6-8x or three doubling dilutions at the moment. That doesn’t mean NO protection, just theoretically less. There is little public data on AZ/Ox vaccine (only approved in UK remember), but plenty on the others here:

    https://covdb.stanford.edu/page/susceptibility-data/

    The y-axis is fold-change in titer (so a measure of resistance). To decode the strains; B.1.1.7 is UK, B.1.351 is SA and P1 is Brazil (they also include E484K for immune escape and N501Y for transmission independently). If you identify that the fold change for the Brazil strain is 15x, then 1) you read the plot properly 🙂 and 2) you noticed only one study is reported so far (they are updating daily).

    Now does 15x less potent matter? That’s four doubling dilutions (16x) and we don’t really know the translation yet to clinical effects. If it were 150x, then I’d say it was proper escape. It is not (yet). Jury is still out. Hospitalisations and deaths in SA have been effectively nil in all clinical vaccine studies, so I am tempted to call no, still covered.

    Premier Icon Rio
    Full Member

    I got two leaflets, one with my letter and one after the vaccine, both of which say I still need to practice social distancing, wear a face mask, wash hands and follow the government guidance. Plus there’s been all the guidance from the likes of JVT and his unforgettable analogies telling us it’s not over yet. But I guess people in general don’t read the leaflets, the media are clearly a law unto themselves, and people hear what they want to hear. Not sure what the answer is without restricting the press.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    Thanks – that’s about the limit of my understanding ability, but I think it makes sense👍

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    This is significant Merck to produce J&J vaccine. It’s a welcome development and this and other efforts can only reflect better on Pharma. We are conducting a combination antibody trial with a competitor. Like HIV, this will become more common.

    Having good vaccines and medicines, and delivering them at GLOBAL scale are not necessarily the same thing. It does tend to force home the magnitude of the problem and the magnitude of the solution. At least I believe the solution is in sight.

    all over by christmas”

    2022 (maybe). How many years to move to rolling influenza-like vaccine production and distribution?

    Premier Icon Poopscoop
    Full Member

    @TiRed and really sorry to put you on the spot on this!

    Is there any data to show how infectious a 1 year old child is?

    I know it’s a vey specific question but it relates to a specific conundrum I have.

    Thanks again.

    @MoreCashThanDash

    I’ll be honest, I won’t be jabbed till April, so July/August for full protection to kick in. I’ve got at least the first half of the summer term to worry about the kids bringing it home from school, Scouts, Rangers, gymnastics, music centre, plus MrsMC working as a social worker. I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day, to use that metaphor.

    You are in such a complex situation there, ive been very lucky though all this in that I had a good level of control at home because of circumstance. The only problem with that is that ive become massively risk adverse and no longer have real perspective.

    MCTD, I wish you and your family all the very best mate.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    A study in daycare showed that children who were positive were more likely to have been in contact with a family member who was positive. That might be effect and cause though, rather than cause and effect.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00024-9/fulltext

    Since small children are effectively bags of germs, my suspicions are that they can pass it on, but biology suggests that they do not suffer serious morbidity. So in short, we don’t really know.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    MCTD, I wish you and your family all the very best mate.

    Thanks – not had as much immediate concern as you’ve been through.

    Premier Icon Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Thanks TiRed, always thankful for the facts even if it’s just that we don’t know yet.

    Premier Icon ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Has anyone heard of people house-swapping to get away from home for Easter? I’m sure it’s not allowed and very naughty.

    🤔

    Premier Icon dirtyrider
    Free Member

    restrictions set to end 21/6/21

    furlough extended until 31/9/21

    ……..right, shall we run a book on the date for lockdown 4.0?

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    restrictions set to end 21/6/21

    furlough extended until 31/9/21

    ……..right, shall we run a book on the date for lockdown 4.0?

    It’s an interesting one. Either they are being ultra cautious, which goes against type, or they don’t think all restrictions will end in June, for whatever reason.

    The Big English Experiment starts next week when schools go back, presumably any initial blip in numbers will start to be seen by the end of Easter ahead of the April 12th relaxation, or will any changes still be small then and maybe choked off by the 2 week Easter holidays?

    Premier Icon thepurist
    Full Member

    Either they are being ultra cautious, which goes against type, or they don’t think all restrictions will end in June, for whatever reason.

    Or its possible that demand will not fully return on 22nd June and people will take some time to get back into good old fashioned consumerism, so some companies won’t be able to sustain their normal employment levels until a few months after restrictions (might) end.

    Or would you rather they were all just thrown under a bus in the proud Tory tradition?

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    Expecting the economy to completely reopen when restrictions leave is unrealistic. Peoples habits & caution will take a while to change back at least.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Or would you rather they were all just thrown under a bus in the proud Tory tradition?

    In what way was I suggesting we throw people under a bus, or even criticising the decision to extend furlough?

    It makes perfect sense to allow the economy time to recover again and protect jobs while it does as you suggest. My surprise is that this government is planning ahead to enable that

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    I’ll be honest, I won’t be jabbed till April, so July/August for full protection to kick in. I’ve got at least the first half of the summer term to worry about the kids bringing it home from school, Scouts, Rangers, gymnastics, music centre, plus MrsMC working as a social worker. I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day, to use that metaphor.

    The first jab will confer the bulk of the protection against serious illness and death, so by the end of April, beginning of May, hopefully, you should feel a fair bit more confident about some ‘normal’ activities. The thinking is that the second jab offers a bit more protection, but lengthens the amount of time you remain protected afterwards. Of course, hygiene/mask wearing will remain part of the solution for the foreseeable future.

    I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day

    I know what you mean though. My kids aren’t going back to school until after Easter, when I’m hoping I’ll have had the first dose.

    Premier Icon stcolin
    Free Member

    *Edited because of stupidity.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Edited because of stupidity.

    They’d have to delete 17 years of my posting history if that was a criteria 😂

    Premier Icon singletrackmind
    Full Member

    TiRed
    This might be daft but… Are other drugs not being made because alot of bio reactors are being used to manufacture C19 vaccine?
    I went on a trip to Belgium to a tank manufacturer with some lads from Pfeizer. They were doing a pdi hand over. I was looling at buying some fermenting vessels
    The cost and finish was mamy times greater than i was looking at so i can’t imagine they have hundreds ofvtanks sitting idle most of the time, but then the batch yeild value was huge

    Premier Icon Tallpaul
    Full Member

    Once a medication is licensed, you are obligated to maintain supply.

    What all the effort focused on COVID is probably doing is delaying R&D. This is not just in obvious ways like manufacturing capacity for biologics, we are seeing shortages in materials used for sample collection and analysis in our clinical trials as the huge number of COVID vaccine/treatment studies are being prioritised.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    I imagine there must have been some expansion in capacity though, which will be a good thing going forward?

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Free Member

    Are other drugs not being made because a lot of bio reactors are being used to manufacture C19 vaccine?

    Likely not – vaccines do not need so much protein, so a lot are made in disposable plastic bags rather than steel tanks. There is a shortage of these bioreactor bags of course.

    https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/biopharma-set-for-covid-related-single-use-shortages-says-survey/

    Antibodies are made in steel bioreactors. There is some sharing of capacity with Amgen making Lilly’s mAb and Regeneron having help from Roche (Genentech). This is what a wartime effort looks like. It’s very welcome.

    Premier Icon white101
    Full Member

    Vaccine day tomorrow for me. The call from the GP reception was interesting ‘you are level 6 and you can have the vaccine if thats something you’d be interested in?

    Strange way to put it. Try and stop me!

    Premier Icon reluctantjumper
    Full Member

    Peoples habits & caution will take a while to change back at least.

    I know of plenty of people who are actually enjoying being forced off the consumerism treadmill, it’s saving them a lot of money and giving them back time they didn’t realise they were wasting.
    I personally don’t think the retail/consumer economy will get anywhere near recovering until we have had a full 12 months or more (ie at least a winter) without shops and attractions having to shut or be severely restricted. The recent fast (and late) announcements of lockdowns have taught people that it’s prudent to keep some cash back each month as those ‘rainy day’ savings could well be needed very soon. Add in the threats to jobs and people will either save what they can for the next few years or be at the risk of being broke if their job goes or they get stuck on Furlough, which I can’t see staying at 80% past this summer.

    Like Boris’ deluded thinking that all the office workers will return very soon, retail will be in for a shock when they realise that online sales are going to replace more and more trips to the shopping centre.

    Premier Icon ayjaydoubleyou
    Free Member

    The recent fast (and late) announcements of lockdowns have taught people that it’s prudent to keep some cash back each month as those ‘rainy day’ savings could well be needed very soon. Add in the threats to jobs and people will either save what they can for the next few years or be at the risk of being broke if their job goes or they get stuck on Furlough, which I can’t see staying at 80% past this summer.

    Of course the inverse is that everyone has bought all the online clothes, toys, and home pasttimes they can handle, and are gagging for pubs/restaurants, holidays, and just browsing round shops, and have made savings and are willing to spend them as soon as they can.

    There is no one size fits all, so it is impossible to predict.

    Premier Icon zippykona
    Full Member

    Hopefully we will be reopening on April 12th.
    Before then we have to put Christmas products away and get all the summer goodies out.
    Also have to clean and do a stock take.
    We have 2 staff that are keen to get back to work.
    Can we have them help us prepping the shop for reopening or are they only allowed back in on April 12th?
    Have looked at the official stuff but this is really a grey area.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    Are you not allowed to work, just not open to the public?

    Premier Icon ayjaydoubleyou
    Free Member

    Can we have them help us prepping the shop for reopening or are they only allowed back in on April 12th?

    Sounds like a task they cannot complete from home unless they have very long arms, so yes it is permitted.

    On a serious note, how much notice do you need to do this, and how much notice will we get given if the dates change? Whats the wasted stock or lost trading cost for you if the dates did change?

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