On the subject of teaching – I gave a talk yesterday to 600 people at work on “covid19 – one year on”. Summarized some of the key developments, a lot of which I have posted here. It was recorded, is non confidential and does not represent GSK policy or opinion. I’m looking to see if I can post it somewhere (hosting advice please – YouTube?). Otherwise, I’ll record it again – more advice please – I may be a geek but there is a limit to my geekiness 😉

And vaccinate those with most contacts prior to them resuming contacts would be a reasonable rule. But longer-term vaccination will be routine.

In all the areas I know about it’s done

kinda..first part of a two part process has been largely done

True.

TiRed … upload to a free Vimeo account, if you just want to be able to share/embed it, rather than get pulled into the YouTube social stuff.

Most folk I speak with about when they’re getting a vaccine understand the underlying principles…

Get yourself over to Twitter!!😮

On a personal note I’ll benefit from this as I’m in my 40s and not a key worker. I don’t however agree that some key workers shouldn’t have been prioritised, but then again they kicked me out of group 6 and I didn’t agree with that either.

How many 40- 50 year olds are there in the UK do we know?

How many 40- 50 year olds are there in the UK do we know?

About 8.5m

@Kelvin thanks. I don’t do YouTube. Yet to view the recording but the talk is an hour, bit of a first foray into the world of online video.

@Tired, that would be most excellent if it could be shared.

Who would have thought this time last year that we would be getting angry about getting a vaccine.

Thanks for posting that – one thing I, and many others seem to have suffered, in the pandemic, is a loss of perspective.

The experts have made a decision, time for us armchair experts to leave it and hope that they are correct.

quite a lot of clientville are a bit lax with the guidelines.

Some of that will be down to finances, the choice between a box of masks or feeding the kids tonight finances. The future for them will be COVID is a disease of the poor as they can’t WFH and their workplaces have lots of people in close proximity.

Surely the extra work, fallout and arguing needed to sort by occupation & risk could mean that -everyone’s- jab was delayed slightly compared to just working by age?

@Tired YouTube will get the most exposure, how about doing it in conjunction with an established fact based channel e.g. Medlife Crisis (Dr Rohin Frances) or Dr Hope’s Sick Notes

As it’s Covid related it’ll be demonetised so you won’t be giving a collaborator any extra money. Both channels have produced lots of good, fact based coverage over the last year from a medical point of view. Neither have covered it from your point of view.

I just got my text invite for my first jab! booked in for next week, one week before my 45th. I know Cambridgeshire are doing exceptionally with their vaccination program but I wasn’t expecting it until the summer.

Great news.

I didn’t realise it was so split between different regions. My mum turn 65 this week and hasn’t been able to book one in Norfolk yet and my 95 year old gran only had hers last week. Yet I’m 40 miles away in Cambridgeshire and I mines next week. My wife is a social worker and has already been done, she also says that many teachers have also been done (not just did to age) because the way the authority has run things. I didn’t know there was that much variation from what were told should be happening nationally.

My girlfriend has just booked her first shot for tomorrow morning. She is 33 no underlying issues, however she is a secondary carer for her dad. He has had his first jab too. Nice positive news.

But I’m starting to fret about what will happen at the end of March when schools go back. Seeing other places around Europe and the world having what seems like sharply rising cases is just not what I was hoping too see.

Text tonight and jab booked for 9th March, 44 Manchester! Surprised but happy, MIL who is in 60’s North Manchester only getting hers next week. Looking forward to seeing my parents.

truth be told I wouldn’t be surprise if some areas were doing it alphabetically.

JVT saying that already certain boroughs showing infection rates going the wrong way in this last week.
Seems to me too many people have read that ‘this is all over’, but can’t wait a second longer.
On our lunch time rides this week we’ve seen many people out in the countryside having picnics, walking in large groups, driving to beauty spots which aren’t local, very little distancing in most cases and no mask wearing (in the countryside).

Fingers crossed that this trend does not continue and we can rely on the majority to ‘do the right thing’.

I’m absolutely certain it will go the wrong way. People outdoors around where I live has been busy for the last 10 months, some days it’s like being in the Trafford Centre.

I’d be willing to bet the dates of this easing will change pretty soon.

So it’s busy outside where you live for the last 10 months but that clearly hasn’t had a bearing on numbers in or out of lockdown and their behaviours haven’t differed. Doesn’t make sense.

Stcolin, just keep at what you’re going come March, don’t worry about the schools, just stay away from families with kids in schools. You’ll be fine. We’ll all meet up and ride before you know it.

Anyone see Newsnight?

Doctors "have lost their lives in some cases, we need a similar commitment from the teaching profession" – Wilshaw, ex head of Ofsted

With lines like that, it's no wonder Ofsted is hated!

Thankfully we have people like @MaryBoustedNEU to put them rightpic.twitter.com/0O6MDDgcfv

— James McAsh (@mcash) February 25, 2021

…because the way the authority has run things. I didn’t know there was that much variation…

In some areas the “flexibility” is being used to get teachers vaccinated ahead of others of the same age, ready for the doubling (around here, as half the kids are already in at many schools) of the pupils on site. Makes sense. Here in West Yorkshire some council areas have gone for it, and others have stuck to the national headline approach. The devil is in the detail, and that’s pretty flexible now we’re on the under 60s.

@kelvin – I watched that last night and thought that the bloke was an utter weasel. He’s a General Melchett. The woman was a breath of fresh air.

Doctors “have lost their lives in some cases, we need a similar commitment from the teaching profession” – Wilshaw, ex head of Ofsted

What the actual ****.

“The dead hand of Ofsted” was a great soundbite

Seems to me too many people have read that ‘this is all over’, but can’t wait a second longer.

On our lunch time rides this week we’ve seen many people out in the countryside having picnics, walking in large groups, driving to beauty spots which aren’t local, very little distancing in most cases and no mask wearing (in the countryside).

I think there is a few different things going on – the weather is improving and people are getting back outside again. Not sure how much can actually be proven about the impact of weather but it will be playing a part. A lot of people will be emerging from hibernation. Staying close to home is going to ‘local’ places a lot busier. The number of people walking the village paths nr me has gone up several 100% but that’s from there only being half a dozen of us.

This weekend there will be a lot of people meeting up outdoors but there is also very little (if any) evidence of transmission outdoors? It feels the virus is circulating much more widely than the same point in the unwinding process last year. The risks are likely be be people carrying on their day out indoors. I suspect most us us dont think day to day that the current dominant virus is more transmissible than last year.

The increase in recreation is all going on against a background of some good times are coming. Most of this seems to be the media – either directly through journalism or indirectly with a switch in advertising. The whole background noise in people’s lives is promoting better times are coming this will be filtering into people’s decision making – even if they aren’t consciously making a choice. What seems to be missing is the big if… which is what JVT was alluding too.

It does feel like unwinding is going to be date driven. Whilst Boris isn’t going full funtime at the moment I’m not convinced he will ever press pause because it’s going to be unpopular.

The return mass overseas travel concerns me most. I’d be a lot happier if this wasn’t on the cards for another year – just to give the rest of world a chance to catch up on vaccination.

Wilshaw, WTF!

I think he has spoken some sense in the past but he’s missed the point here. That said – I kind of get it; the risk to teachers is relatively low and the benefit of kids back in schools and proper education is felt to be high and there is a balance.

But it’s optional as a balance, we can take a judgement of one risk over another. We can also judge that ‘in time’ kids will get back to schools and to some extent / with some damage, things will return to ‘normal’. And with vaccines that ‘in time’ is coming quite fast. If there was no end in sight and just that risk / benefit equation to balance it might be a more reasonable ask.

Whereas medics don’t really have that choice; there’s no kicking it down the road and catch up later. Just statistics and body bags.

I’m very much in the “don’t open too soon camp”. On the other side of it though, my youngest (13 yesterday) is showing signs of struggling.
He enjoys school, is bright & engaged. The lack of social contact is having more of an impact than I thought. The day before his birthday he had a big wobble. Not enjoying school. Not looking fwd to his birthday. Worried about not making friends at new school(been off since yr 7 at a big grammar and doesn’t live near his mates).
Up until last week I thought he was coping well. If he is struggling there will be a lot worse out there.

What the actual ****.

He enjoys school, is bright & engaged. The lack of social contact is having more of an impact than I thought.

My two were the same. Hated the bubbles and the distancing and masks indoors when they went back in September, but their mood transformed.

Tne problem was the potential spread to teachers (which didn’t happen at either of their schools due to strict rules) and the knock on risk to parents/families if the kids catch and spread it. In theory, the risks of deaths is much lower now the over 60s and vulnerable will mostly be vaccinated by 8th March, but I’m not keen on the 1 in 10 risk of long Covid as I won’t be vaccinated till April, and I’m a relatively old parent.

I am intensely relaxed about people enjoying some fresh air and decent weather, be it local or not, singly or in groups.

The disease just isn’t significantly spread in such situations, and it’s much better they do this than go round to each other’s houses or cram into shops.

The more people you see outside, the fewer are inside.

I agree.

Both my kids schools are testing the day before they return, then twice per week. After 1st week, 2 per week at home.

That added to masks in class should make a difference.

Still think teachers should get the jab.

I got crammed in a tent outside a pharmacy with 5/6 people in there to register to get the jab jabbed yesterday. Why? Bit queasy today.

Numbers game Bill. Case rate UK is around 100/100000 people so 1/1000 (your area my be higher or lower, this is an illustration)

999/1000 don’t have it. And the likelihood in your tent is lower again because of those who have it, the major proportion are symptomatic or know via testing and are at home.

But, go with 999/1000 chance that each of those people individually is clear. You want all four clear, so (999/1000)^4

That’s 99.6%, and that’s before the odds further in your favour above, and before the likelihood of someone actually transmitting it.

TL:DR – vanishing low. Don’t have nightmares.

no mask wearing (in the countryside).

Whaaaat, people aren’t wearing masks outdoors? Heathens. How the hell the infection rate is decreasing is beyond me.

It feels the virus is circulating much more widely than the same point in the unwinding process last year.

We have zero way of comparing this lockdown infection rates and decrease to the first as the testing capabilities has vastly improved since, the only comparison is hospital admissions and deaths which is falling at what appears to be a greater rate due to the vaccine, treatments and experience.

This weekend there will be a lot of people meeting up outdoors but there is also very little (if any) evidence of transmission outdoors?

As has been quoted by Sage scientists time and time again, there is no evidence so far to show that outdoor gatherings even en-mass such as packed beaches which occurred last spring yet rates still decreased shows.

The increase in recreation is all going on against a background of some good times are coming.

People are fed up and are releasing that tension in the safest manner.

I got crammed in a tent outside a pharmacy with 5/6 people in there to register to get the jab jabbed yesterday. Why? Bit queasy today.

I’d really not worry, again you’re outside unless it was an enclosed tent and you were in there for a long time (I doubt).

Numbers game Bill. Case rate UK is around 100/100000 people so 1/1000 (your area my be higher or lower, this is an illustration)

The case rate is a fair bit lower than the real rate and doesn’t account for all the people who don’t bother getting tested or are asymptomatic etc.

The latest figures from the ONS based on random testing suggest 1 in 145 have Covid in England so still a fairly high prevalence.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/26february2021

Larry_Lamb – I don’t need sarcastic comments thank you.
In the pedestrian shopping area of our small town, most people are wearing masks. However at our local beauty spot there were lots and lots of people all crammed together and some not making any effort to pass with any distance. They’ve come out to the countryside to get some fresh air. I certainly wasn’t expecting them to wear masks, however until many more people are vaccinated I really feel uncomfortable with this many people even outside brushing past and blocking up areas because they are stopping for a picnic or snack in large groups when we are STILL IN LOCKDOWN.

Boris has told a rail conference that he expects all the offic workers to go back to working in their offices once restrictions are lifted this summer! Somehow I very much doubt it. People have proven they can work from home well to their bosses and a lot of people have enjoyed the commuting cost and time savings, not to mention all those who have moved home to the countryside as they don’t need to be within sensible commuting distance every day.

Is Boris right or has he completely misjudged the situation as usual?

Is Boris right or has he completely misjudged the situation as usual?

This smacks of people in buildings = cash in the coffers of property owners. There’s probably a lot of people who have his ear (or those who influence him) that will take an income hit if home working makes city centre property less profitable. No doubt there will be a lot about impacts, benefits, how it enriches the life of the employees but it is ultimately about the money.