What do you think?

This sounds good?

Sadly, that’s all that seems to matter.

Hmm… I hadn’t realised that Edward Argar, health minister, was Serco’s PR man. That’s a coincidence. How’s our “world beating” centralised TTI going? Still using the “NHS” badge? Still obstructing local TTI efforts? At least Serco have announced they’re going to get rid of some of the staff they’d had twiddling their thumbs for months waiting for the system to get going.

What do you think?

I’m not allowed to post that because some people think I’m too negative…

You can post whatever you like but expect to be called out if you post rubbish

It’s a plandemic not pandemic…

It’s a plandemic not pandemic…

^ I’ll bite. Does that mean terrorism, biological warfare? Does it mean that the course of the pandemic is subject to planning? Specifics, evidence? Cute phrase, but what are you actually saying?

^^ Ah, new profile. First comment.

I’ve been had.

@Malvern Rider – ignore Tonka, they’re just toying with you

Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?

Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?

The favoured method is to annoy him, wait around a bit and then he’ll send a couple of lads to administer it at your front doorstep.

Ah no no no, it will be 100% voluntary.

Honest.

Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?

After you. I like my vaccines GLP tested and subject to suitable efficacy trials. All medicines and vaccines are given based on benefit-risk. The Russian adenovirus does not have a measure of either (yet). Derek Lowe is always worth a read. He’s as scathing as me!

Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.

An obvious lie, no?

@TiRed – that Derek Lowe article is interesting and makes some good points

Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?

No need for that, Dom has some comrade mates, he’s going to get a vaccine deal for the UK that will make the ~£1Bn PPE scandal look a drop in the ocean.

Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.

The legion Boris kids must be relieved about the animosity and anonymity that’ll spare them this sort of PR nonsense.

Sunak’s response to recession and unemployment, ‘nobody will be left without hope.’ That’s cheering and it’s good to know he’s got a plan.

Well we’ve all been living in hope for many years so he’s not wrong.

Or living on hope? Here’s a rewarding (if chilling) read:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-failed-coronavirus-pandemic/615166/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

if chilling

I like to think there’s a little national pride in may country left in me.   That article smashed it to pieces.

That article smashed it to pieces.

Difficult to argue with its analysis though.

Sadly…

I like to think there’s a little national pride in may country left in me. That article smashed it to pieces.

I think that sums it up

The question is what are we – us ordinary folk – going to be asking for, pushing for, campaigning for in order to get things put right. Are we – all of us – going to be working towards the solutions, or are we going to be quietly accepting, looking for others to “do something” and remaining part of the problem?

Freely admit I’ve been guilty of the latter more than I probably realised before events in the last 5-10 years made me realise

From today’s data – stable deaths with trend to increase.

Right then, it’s 2 weeks since they started the additional Northern restrictions. They’re up for review today.

Oldham appears to be a bit of a basket case currently but other areas seem to be improving.

Who reckons they’ll ease them?

Another week to another review I reckon. I think they’ll want to get that rise flattened before September to support the schools opening rhetoric.

Blackburn is still 84/100000 with a national average of 14/100000 cases nationally so I doubt we’ll see a local change. Oldham is north of 100.

Pendle and Calderdale are still spiking as well, Blackburn is still high, wouldn’t bet on it.

I’m betting they keep those areas in lockdown until schools return.

That’s another 3 weeks

If only there was a plan, and people knew what they were supposed to be doing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-daily-infections-cases-government-data-a9666501.html

“The JBC set 1,000 cases a day as a warning threshold – but we don’t know what action is meant to be taken on the back of it, or why they picked 1,000,” said the research professor at University College London.

“We don’t know whether the government is actually planning on changing strategy in light of ticking up numbers. Or even, what government strategy is in general.

“Mr Johnson has said opening schools a priority but he hasn’t given any detail of what that means in terms of policy, nor any indication that they are trying to drive down cases before schools open in England.”

Meanwhile local TV news says police have stepped up operations only to be told by people breaking guidelines that they were following out of date guidelines that they didn’t know had been updated. Where’s our daily briefings…?

@TiRed Can you explain that graph a bit more please. Apologies if you already have in the previous 378 pages 🙂

Currently having a small Holiday in Ardèche – very quiet car journey down. Not many people in the hotel.

Awaiting the quarantine news to see what they throw at France.

Happier here than in UK as it stands.

From the Derek Lowe article:

This is just naked “vaccine nationalism”, which is really the last thing we need right now. I don’t want to see any country (including the US) beating its chest in this fashion and using the pandemic to declare the superiority of its system or its scientists.

Ring any bells about world-beating scientists, tests, apps etc ?

The article in the Atlantic (link above) doesn’t pull any punches and is sobering read.

It’s certainly worth reading.

It’s a regression of daily deaths by day, using over-dispersed poisson (count) statistics. It tests to see whether there is any curvature and makes an adjustment for the day of the week due to reporting delays (quite a simple feature). Then it predicts six weeks in advance. The curvature suggests that we will see a leveling off and slight increase of daily deaths and the bands reflect the uncertainty. Fluctuations are unlikely to lead to a day of zero reported deaths.

There has been a revision of reporting from daily to weekly cases at the lowest (postcode) level and I haven’t updated my code yet. But the hotspots are easy to see from incidence data. I look at other measures for an earlier signal.

The article in the Atlantic (link above) doesn’t pull any punches

You reckon? Seemed pretty balanced to me, sharing blame throughtout the UK establishment and even offering us the following to let us all completely off the hook:

Some government officials and experts I spoke with—including a senior adviser to the leader of one of the best-performing countries in Europe—said that Britain may have just been unlucky in the number of holidaymakers it had returning from the wrong places at the wrong times. Britain is also more densely populated than almost any other country in Europe, with its preeminent city and busiest airport. Like a Silk Road port at the time of the plague, London is a 21st-century global hub unlike anywhere else in the region. It is no coincidence that the British capital and New York have been among the two worst-affected cities in the world.

I’m a big fan of the Atlantic and this article is no exception.