Our world beating track & trace system is a complete **** up, did we really expect anything different though?

Adam's wife is a contact tracer. As part of her job to find contacts of those with Covid-19, she’s made two phone calls since May.

Neither of the calls were successful. Nevertheless, she’s just been offered overtime.@mrjamesob pic.twitter.com/qedGzoV3wb

— LBC (@LBC) August 5, 2020

Anyway… when do we get that contact tracing app that was promised for May… June.. ?

IMHO I don’t think your getting one but tbh every time you grab your lunch at pret your gonna get a close pass and have to isolate 🙂

Haha educator! Nah, this is little’un #3 so we know what we are doing much better. He was a bit small when he arrived but he’s gaining weight fast so will soon be at the magic 10lb ish mark where they are big enough to sleep through. #2 started it after 8 weeks, really good that.
So unlike Boris, I think I know what I’m talking about and am planning accordingly! 😂

I read that BBC article and my first thoughts were who paid him off.

Testing, testing …

The schools minister, Nick Gibb, said on the Today Programme that 330,000 people are being tested for Covid-19 each day.

The true number, for England, is more like 52,000.https://t.co/uTm39QcDag

— Full Fact (@FullFact) August 5, 2020

And I see that the Scottish government is acting in Aberdeen in a manner that doesn’t assume that there is some kind of magic in place in pubs, cafes and restaurants that prevents transmission.

Fifty million face masks bought by the government in April will not be used in the NHS because of safety concerns.
The government says the masks, which use ear-loop fastenings rather than head loops, may not fit tightly enough.
They were bought for healthcare workers from supplier Ayanda Capital as part of a £252m contract.
Ayanda says the masks meet the specifications the government had set out. The government says its safety standards process is “robust”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841
Just a normal day for the government. There is a bright side though:

It also emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.
But he told the BBC his position played no part in the awarding of the contract.

So that’s all OK and above board then.

A bit more detail on that.

Coming up: the most extraordinary thread I’ve ever written. On how we blew over £150m and Andrew Mills (a Government adviser) seems to have made a fortune.

But let’s start with introductions. THREAD /1

— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) August 6, 2020

And apparently not the only iffy PPE contract (blame Russ if its not accurate)…

33. £252m to Ayanda Capital, registered in Mauritius for tax purposes. PPE not delivered

34. £186m to Uniserve. PPE not delivered

35. £116m to P14 Medical Supplies, with assets of just £145. PPE not delivered

36. £108m to PestFix, with just 16 employees. PPE not delivered

— Russ (@RussInCheshire) July 29, 2020

£186m to Uniserve. PPE not delivered

£116m to P14 Medical Supplies, with assets of just £145. PPE not delivered

£108m to PestFix, with just 16 employees. PPE not delivered

£107m to Clandeboye Agencies, a sweet wholesaler. Yes, a sweet wholesaler. PPE not delivered.

£40m to Medicine Box Ltd, with assets of just £6000. PPE not delivered.

£48m to Initia Ventures Ltd, which registered itself as “dormant” in March. PPE not delivered.

£28m to Monarch Acoustics, which makes shop furniture. PPE not delivered

£25m to Luxe Lifestyle, which has no employees, no assets, and no turnover. PPE not delivered

£18m to Aventis Solutions, which has total assets of £332. Not a typo, £332. PPE not delivered

£10m to Medco Solutions, incorporated just 3 days after lockdown, with share capital of (not a typo) £2. PPE not delivered.

So, we’re not getting a contact tracing app at all in England now? Downgraded to an info only one… without a delivery date? [ No links yet, this is a word of mouth rumour ]

It also emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.
But he told the BBC his position played no part in the awarding of the contract.

So that’s all OK and above board then

it does seem that a lot of the usual suspects have been certainly making hay while the usual rules regarding competitive tendering have been put on hold.

Snouts well and truly in the trough

The Times has the story about the contact tracing app not contact tracing… apparently (BBC radio4 reporting of what The Times has) it‘s going ask you lots of lifestyle questions, and tell you the local risks. Great. Couldn’t a webpage do that? Data gathering with none of the actual (and once described by the government as vital) contact tracing?

I can’t find the story on The Times site… their cartoon is appropriate though…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-failed-tracing-app-repackaged-to-tell-users-their-risk-ratings-l88n3zhnx

And this cost how much ?

£15 per month?

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/track-and-trace-team-finally-gets-in-touch-with-boris-johnson-20200806199172

Suspect this is probably one of the more accurate track and trace stories… 😂

So, whose received a survey from the ONS then?   Our government is so bad at this pandemic, that “…this survey will be used to find the best way to manage the COVID 19 Pandemic…”

EG.  They want the publics advice to help out.  They must be screaming bonkers.   My good natured ideas will be collected and used against me by Cummings, I’m not taking this Survey, I wonder how much it cost to put out, collate and er, likely be thrown in a bin.

And breathe. I’ve read it properly. Blood tests and swabs, I’m ok with that.

I wonder how long it will be until France is on the quarantine list

Always worth a squizz:

So, we’re not getting a contact tracing app at all in England now? Downgraded to an info only one… without a delivery date? [ No links yet, this is a word of mouth rumour ]

I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.

I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.

On returning to school, BJ has moved from ‘science’ to ‘morals’. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.

He has no understanding of either.

Re da app.

I wish I’d put a tender in, but possibly a proven track record and no Tory donations or ministerial Mates would have gone against me.

A couple of mill for the newly specced one would be happy daze 🙂

And with that, he’s off to Scotland on his holibobs… Clearly nothing going on nationally that needs his attention (although I guess his boss might still be at work to sort everything out?).

So much for ‘…working flat out’.

returning to school, BJ has moved from ‘science’ to ‘morals’. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.

Its ok Boris said it was safe for children, no mention of their family or School Staff.

I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.

It’s not about detecting people breaking the guidelines, it’s about letting people know if they have shared a space with people who have found out they have the virus. All the good advice (2m still stands, and 1m+ with mitigation such as mask is an alternative) does not prevent transmission, it merely reduces it. People isolating if they have the virus is the only way to stop it, and a contact tracing app can help people to identify that they could be carrying it, and to get a test, and isolate if positive. Of course, it’s useless alone, it requires good policy around testing and support for those isolating, but it IS needed.

I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.

An app isn’t required for that. A gov.uk page would do it.

Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing. At least one can organise testing and all other actions around a single objective. The consequences of this objective may have knock-on effects for the rest of society such as reducing contacts elsewhere. But it is a coherent strategy.

We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools. But that may not come to pass as schools reopen. See how the cases increase by the end of September. It may come as a surprise, but I could only find two decent studies of schools opening. One in Korea, hardly representative, showed no additional cases. One in France showed that cases in children mimicked those in adults.

Prevalence studies show no age differences in rates of infection. Establishing child to adult transmission has been more challenging (Study related) but the null hypothesis is that children can spread the virus to adults. The attack rate in a house looks is about 50%. So think children can pass the virus on within the home. If living with vulnerable adults, I’d limit contacts if a school has tested positive. I’d also be testing schools weekly, including teachers.

Expect more local lockdowns, closure of facilities, restricted commuting and no lifting of mask wearing. Children will get used to having nose swabs.

But it is a coherent strategy.

If it had been the strategy since May, I’d agree. Attempting to move to it as kids are returning for the new term sounds a lot like just more government as a PR exercise.

Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing.

No doubt, I’m just amused by the fact that they still spout the children are not likely to get ill rubbish and people still fall for it without thinking, hang on what if my kids pass it to me? (I get no one gives a shite about the staff). Mind you I’m still seeing loads of people in shops with masks not covering noses so shouldnt be too surprised, how stupid do you need to be.

This is probably the most comprehensive summary of schools at the moment. Not a lot of data and less knowledge.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks

Basically it is hard to tease any reasonable patterns. Older children seem to have the same transmission as adults but less morbidity. Younger children may or may not. This may or may not be down to expression levels of ACR2 in tissues. Masks have and have not been made compulsory but their efficacy has not been tested.

If I was an at risk teacher in a secondary school, I’d wear a mask whilst at school at all times. Particularly if teaching in a secondary school.

frankconway
Subscriber

So much for ‘…working flat out’.

Oh be fair, after all they’ve been literally “working night and day” for months now, he’s due a sleep

We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools.

That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.

R is likely above 1 already, despite what SAGE say. It’s not high enough to be a problem right now but the combination of schools, furlough winding down and worse weather is likely to cause problems.

Is it of any interest to this discussion that my wife who’s an assistant head gets annoyed with the headlines that teachers/heads are not happy with schools going back? She says the unions have not consulted their members and are making statements that don’t represent the staff of schools. She says there’s an overwhelming desire in her school to get the job done. Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.

Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.

That’s just as much a generalisation as the thing you’re arguing against.

My trust for example, has taken a very firm and vocal line of ‘only what’s best and safe for everyone involved’. That might be everyone back in as ‘normal’, but might also look very different in some local contexts. As a teacher and Head of Year, I absolutely want what is best for the students in my care, but would not want to put anyone at risk to achieve that – all I ask is for the information to be able to form an opinion on what that might look like…

That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.

It’s based on mixing patterns and transmission of influenza. So yes, hopefully it is a big over-estimate. But secondary schools will be interesting because they look like pubs for transmission. Same explosive close contact transmission pattern.

We will see. But the science is pretty cloudy. Politicians love certainty but that’s not how science works in its infancy.

Yeah Colournoise, didn’t read my post back. Meant to say the teachers and head at her school were overwhelmingly in support of going back. Can’t speak for other schools as I don’t know their opinions.

The Serco contract has another two weeks to go, I suspect they will be paid in full for it https://t.co/XXNtaeq8vr

— Justin Madders MP (@justinmadders) August 10, 2020

So Boris has been applauded by the WHO for his hard and fast approach to local lockdowns, and our increase are smaller than Spain and a France.  This sounds good?