Then it predicts six weeks in advance. The curvature suggests that we will see a leveling off and slight increase of daily deaths and the bands reflect

@tired was every point on the blue line predicted 6 weeks before, based on the data at that time? in hich case, impressive modeling.

why, on the future 6 weeks, do the weekend and mid week troughs get lower, and the monday and friday peaks get higher? To my laymans eye, the seven day rolling average seems to remain about flat or even slight decline? is that the case

*

@TiRed, also why does the probability of extinction increase in Mid Sept, especially since the model predicts Uk cases are rising then.

…but really, why does it increase at all?

Sorry, another question – do all the models need adjusting now that the way English deaths were reported has been updated and the total was reduced by 5,000 yesterday?

why, on the future 6 weeks, do the weekend and mid week troughs get lower, and the monday and friday peaks get higher?

Because that’s the statistical trend. Now, what’s behind that trend… that’s more than statistics… I’d guess at different reporting measures for different care/health settings or patients… so what we’re looking at is one or more trends artificially combined into one set of data… and those trends are diverging, but that divergence is only hinted at by the peaks and troughs caused by the different distribution of the reporting across the days of the week.

do all the models need adjusting now that the way English deaths were reported has been updated and the total was reduced by 5,000 yesterday

what, again?

He’s referring to deaths more than 28 days after Coronavirus diagnosis no longer being included in Coronavirus deaths figures. Not relevant when looking at excess deaths though… not sure why Tired has stopped using those.

Ah yes, forgot TiRed was using excess deaths, ignore me, usually the best option anyway.

Ah yes, forgot TiRed was using excess deaths, ignore me, usually the best option anyway.

Can’t be. Firstly (AFAIK) excess deaths don’t fluctuate with weekends and secondly excess deaths have been below zero for 6 weeks or so. For the last 6 weeks CV has been preventing deaths. (Albeit by moving them forwards.)

…but agree Excess deaths is probably the best number to use, apart from laggy ONS reporting based on actual death certs. (And excess deaths are the only sane way to compare different nations for obvious reasons).

That data is ONS reported COVID19 deaths (not excess deaths). It will probably be updated based on the reclassification of 28d, which I don’t personally agree with, but standardisation is OK either way.

What I did was model observed deaths by day of the week using log-linear, quartic and cubic regressions for all weeks from 15 onwards (with an extra factor for day of the week). Then selected the model with the best overall goodness of fit – this was quartic from Week 22 onwards – which is what is plotted. You can see that the data has a periodicity, but the fluctuations increase with time (hint: it’s plotted on a log scale). Forward projection just increases the magnitude of fluctuations due to the quartic nature of the overall trend- it’s a simple model. I really wanted to understand whether we could report ZERO deaths because, as per Scotland, the media will get excited.

When ONS update their data, the extinction probability may change.

Excess deaths are back to historic ten-year range. Forget the noise about being BELOW. they are as expected at the moment. A few age groups and regions have a little excess. Nothing of concern though at the moment. Excess deaths is insensitive to changes because of the reporting lag by ONS. That’s why the daily PHE data is used on a daily basis.

Ratio of All deaths to ten year baseline by NHS region shows everything looks pretty much back to baseline.

Apps back.

The software will tell users to self-isolate for a fortnight if the app detects they have been close to someone else diagnosed with the virus.

Baroness Dido Harding – who heads up the wider Test and Trace initiative – had earlier voiced concern about implementing the automated contact-tracing feature because of fears many people who had been falsely flagged might be told to go into quarantine.

The app has several other functions, including:

An alert system that informs users of the coronavirus risk level close to their home, with the area defined by the first part of their postcode

A QR barcode scanner, so users can check in when they visit a venue and be told if others there later tested positive

A symptom-checking tool, which allows users to book a free test and get the results via the app

A countdown function that comes into effect if they are told to self-isolate, so users can keep track of how long to stay at home

I love it – an app that helps people with counting – can it also help them spell their name?

‘Defined by the first part of the postcode’, that’s the whole county so that will be useful.

Another success story from the woman who was CEO when TalkTalk had a massive data breach.

Who knew such a complex app was possible in such a short timeframe? Perhaps the NZ government, who had something similar up and running in the middle of May.

‘Defined by the first part of the postcode’, that’s the whole county so that will be useful.

Depends if they mean the first two letters, or they’ve really upped their game and gone for the numbers as well. World. Beating.

It depends on what the first part of the postcode actually means

If you take M2 7PB:
– the “M” is the Postal Area (Manchester)
– “M2” is the Postal District
– “M2 7” is the Postal Sector
– add the unit “PB” to get a full postcode

Even data at Postal District level is very useful for urban areas as it’s quite a small area. Admittedly if you look at IV27 it’s huge but the population is very low.

Even data at Postal District level is very useful for urban areas as it’s quite a small area. Admittedly if you look at IV27 it’s huge but the population is very low.

It is totally dependent on the infection rate data they are using to inform it. Ideally you’d want to know about positive tests in your area as they happen, not once the official data gets dribbled out a week or so later.

It will be first postcode district. they’ve moved reporting to the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA). MSOAs are small areas with around 7,200 average population.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

You’d assume the definition of the first part of the postcode is the 3/4 digits.

Although wouldn’t surprise me based on how they’ve acted upon the latest “local lockdown”.

A question for people who’ve had a swab test administered by someone else ie a health care worker – do you think you couid have done it yourself? I gather that it involves sticking the swab pretty far into your head and I wonder if you woukd have done it properly if you’d done it yourself?

(Reason I ask is I may need a test for travel and not sure if I should go the cheaper DIY route)

@DrJ Nope, a nurse wasn’t convinced it was a good throat swab when I was at SGH recently because I was struggling to not gag and keep my tongue out of the way, the nose swab went fine but I’m not sure I’d fancy doing it myself competently.

I’ve not had it done by a professional but I don’t really feel like I did a self-administered one very well.

I rubbed the back of my throat and it was seriously grim – huge gag response. By contrast I can put things into my nose a long way (horizontal not vertical) without issue.

Sputum testing is coming…

I went to do a drive through test assuming someone else would swab. Was suprised when I was handed the test and instructions to do it myself.

I’ve self administered the test 3 times now (all negative) – back of the throat is grim but gets easier. Nose was no problem. I know people who are OK with the throat but not the nose.

Roll on a decent pin prick or spit test!

Don’t panic everyone, the world-beating scientific experts of SAGE have told us that the number of infections is still going steadily down:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

I guess that means yesterday’s 2-month high of 1441 cases (more than 4 times the low of 352 a few weeks back) just proves that we are now super-efficient at finding all the infected people!

Yay us. Quarantinis all round!

And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?

Infection rates rather than absolute case numbers are more relevant-https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/coronavirus-infection-rates-levelling-off-english-data-suggests

I guess that means yesterday’s 2-month high of 1441 cases (more than 4 times the low of 352 a few weeks back) just proves that we are now super-efficient at finding all the infected people!

I was wondering how this works also, and we continue to lift restrictions.

I know people who are OK with the throat

They’d be good at deep throating then, attractive?

I rubbed the back of my throat and it was seriously grim – huge gag response. By contrast I can put things into my nose a long way (horizontal not vertical) without issue.

What got me about the test is you take what ever is at the back of your throat and shove it up your nose. It just doesn’t seem logical but it must makes sense in terms of testing.

If I’d realised going to a test centre was just an exercise in driving about a car park reading signs I’d have got a postal one. Don’t think I spent enough time poking about with the cotton bud – having to keep moving on and digest everything that was happening whilst not feeling that perky. Sitting at home would have given me time to read everything a couple of times before prodding away.

So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…

But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs…

And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?

Gov probably wants to look like they are tough on Covid and not wanting to cross the the streams but why waste a useful pandemic opportunity in Game Of Brexit.

So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…
But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs…

Yep first thing that went thru my mind.

Looks like Didos getting a promotion for all her good work.

So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…

I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though

It appears that massive privatisation is being screened by the emergency. The state has bought into a source of ‘scientific’ behavioural advice, presumably making them rich and overpaid but ‘independent’ members of the private civil service, they also have an organisation for channelling which academics get interviewed on tv, plus now a 2 person science/technology start-up with a linked name which received a £130m contract. Nobody is talking about this apart from a few references from eg Gabriel Scally of the IndieSage team. There’s already some seriously rich people coming out of this, I wouldn’t be surprised if some moved out of the jurisdiction so much money is involved. ‘It’s a fair cop, it was indeed a bit of jolly japes, but didn’t you get the £30m cheque I sent with the postcard?’

According to the Torygraph Public Health England to be scrapped and replaced by new body run by Dido Harding. You know – the one who presided over the utterly failed test and trace system, the non-existent app, building on her previous success at Talk Talk where she lost all the customers data. Fun fact – her husband is a Tory MP who campaigns to privatise the NHS.

Britain is a corrupt failed state.

I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about [PHE] them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though

Except they are not independent they are run by the govt so they are HIS responsibility

Well, you can be sure the replacement will be less “independent” … answer direct to Cummings, and you can pocket the millions.

Inevitable that PHE would get the blame, anyone but the government

If only we could find out which party created this overly centralised body & then spent a decade reducing its funding.

It’s not like the strategic health authorities it supplanted specifically warned at the time that it would leave us vulnerable to pandemic

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/cameron-government-pandemic-NHS-reforms-lansley-health-social-care-act