Unfortunately I honestly can’t see now how this can end in a way other than the fall or surrender of the Ukraine, without direct Western intervention. It seems that Putin now has sufficient control to pretty much reduce Ukranian action to urban defence. Surrounding cities and pulverising them into submission looks like it will be effective, and there’s not going to be any response to that other than surrender, leading to Putin being able to pretty much have whatever he wants of the country.
And once it’s over, how will the world unwind all this? Russia may withdraw, leaving a new government in place, so will the West still want to pay for reconstruction? Will refugees return? Will families be permitted to reunite, or will there be a new iron curtain? And how will we re-integrate Russia into the world after all the action and condemnation of the last few days? It’s obviously not possible to keep the sanctions in force for ever- the world is far different to the 1940’s and 50’s- so at some stage we are going to have to back down- and Putin will never apologise, so another win for him.
