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  • Ukraine
  • rickmeister
    Full Member

    Geopolitics: Putins “long game” of just lobbing missiles into Ukraine as the rest of the world ties itself in knots with elections and political wrangling at country, EU level. Then there is BRICS and russian military support for BRICS members and back to the 13 days missile crisis scenario potentially (or am I being a bit over dramatic?)

    Macron dissolves parliament and an election and as a staunch Ukraine supporter it looks like he is set for a big defeat and LePen will do well. How do you think this bodes for Ukraine?
    Biden, Sunak, Macron…potential for a big change after the elections… Has Starmer offered any position on this at all?

    (Nice to see this thread back on the front page imho).

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    I’ve read various takes on Macron’s move and I’ve come away thinking he may have actually played a slight blinder.

    Le Pen is basically where UKIP were  in 2010-2015 when they used to do very well in the UK EU elections as they were seem as a ‘safe’ protest vote to poke the sitting government in the eye. Regardless of the fact that their MEP’s once installed were largely incompetent, lazy expenses-hoovers.

    Like UKIP they benefit hugely from never having had to actually govern so they can promise the earth and snipe from the sidelines without having a record to defend.

    He’s basically called the electorate’s bluff and said ‘so, do you really think you want this lot in charge then?’

    If the FN end up with a parliamentary majority they will then actually have to govern and, come the next presidential election  will have a record to be judged on and by that point Macron is betting that the electorate will want the adults back in charge.

    If they don’t do well then they loose their ‘we have a mandate, Macron is a dead duck, we are the true voice of France’ shtick they’d otherwise be beating him with for the next few years.

    It’s a gamble by any measure but in the situation he was in and in terms of keeping the presidency and executive power out of the hands of the (Russia funded) far right, it might just work.

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    I’ve read various takes on Macron’s move and I’ve come away thinking he may have actually played a slight blinder

    I don’t think that he has a choice, the European voting system in France was changed a few years ago to simplify things for the electorate. As such it’s become an unofficial referendum and when combined with a minority government and rumoured votes of no confidence, he’s in a bind.

    It’s too early to say whether the overall European vote will effect policy on either defence or Ukraine, but it’s certainly going to effect the budget for such things. The right is currently too fragmented to pull in any one direction

    timba
    Free Member

    President Biden is gradually loosening the rules on supplying materiel to Ukraine.

    As well as allowing a limited use of US weapons inside Russia’s international borders, he’s also likely to allow US training and weapons to go to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade, which has been sanctioned by the US for 10 years or more on human rights grounds

    “After thorough review, Ukraine’s 12th Special Forces Azov Brigade passed Leahy vetting as carried out by the U.S. Department of State” https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/10/azov-brigade-ukraine-us-weapons/ Google the quote for accessible reporting on the story

    6
    hatter
    Full Member

    To be fair the Azov brigade of 2024 is not the Azov brigade of 2014.

    Not pretending they’re choirboys but they have worked hard since 2014 to purge the less savoury elements from their structures, they also fought like tigers at the Azovstahl siege so are basically heros to most of Ukraine now.

    For those who may be swayed by carping and pearl clutching from Russian outriders regarding this, a brief reminder that Russian maintains an avowedly and openly neo-Nazi formation and, unlike Ukraine, has made zero efforts to reform them.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusich_Group

    1
    DT78
    Free Member

    ordered is still someway from operational though. but i get what you mean.

    the rate at which kit is being destroyed in crimea there cant be much left othet than the troops

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Hopefully this can be made to work.

    A flurry of new initiatives from the US and its allies looks like an attempt to Trump-proof Ukraine’s lifeline

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/13/politics/joe-biden-ukraine-g7-donald-trump-vladimir-putin/index.html

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    Hopefully this can be made to work.

    There’s a way to go unfortunately, from the CNN item ^^

    Relentless Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have destroyed half of Kyiv’s electricity production capacity, the report found, underscoring why already, in mid-June, there are mounting concerns about the plight of Ukrainian civilians in the coming winter with Russia expected to double down on past efforts to use the annual chill as a weapon

    Ukraine has lost around 8000 or 9000 MWh of electricity generation during this invasion. They’d been planning to link into European neighbours for years, away from sources in Russia and Belarus. The 2022 invasion led to this work speeding up but can’t provide much more than 1700 MWh now. Five years will see around 4000MWh being imported from neighbours.

    Some of that capacity was lost recently due to the wrangling within the US Congress, which Russia capitalised on by targetting Ukraine’s energy systems while AD munitions were in short supply.

    Biden has, however, recently allowed the use of limited categories of US weapons in limited circumstances in Ukrainian operations on Russian soil.

    This, and supply to the Azov Brigade, are signs that the gloves are slowly coming off. An acceleration would be welcomed by President Zelensky and would be crucial to a shorter war, but that has to be balanced by other considerations.

    Not surprisingly, Zelensky has always chafed at the self-imposed limits of Western support for his war effort that are a symptom of Biden’s core aim of avoiding a direct NATO confrontation with Russia.

    A Russian tactic is to push the boundaries and see what happens; the west is mirroring that and is now testing Russia’s red lines

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    I know that we have to keep trying, but a peace summit with Russia (not attending) on the other side of the table seems like shouting at the sky.
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1802059854296858898?t=j18YYZbc7suM0LvmemBDzQ&s=19

    3
    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    400 Russian soldiers surrender in Vovchansk, near Kharkiv. The northern offensive by Russia is floundering.

    timba
    Free Member

    I know that we have to keep trying, but a peace summit with Russia (not attending) on the other side of the table seems like shouting at the sky.

    Russia will be invited when they demonstrate a willingness to abide by international principles and the UN Charter.

    The Ukrainian President’s Office emphasized that the purpose of the summit was to facilitate “fair peace … based on the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law,” highlighting Ukraine’s effort to garner support from the international community in ending the war on terms that do not violate international law by compromising Ukraine’s territory integrity or sovereignty. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte stated on June 16 at the summit that “Russia should not be at the [negotiating] table now” and that there will only be peace in Ukraine ” when Russia agrees to international principles and the UN Charter.” https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/June%2016%2C%202024%2C%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf

    …see also https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-85-putins-peace-deal

    1
    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Seems that the terrorism/genocide is stepping up a gear.

    I really am coming towards the view that the rest of the world needs to physically step up and just flatten all Russian military infrastructure across Ukraine and Russia and end this war.

    https://x.com/AndriyKostinUa/status/1803045963432411508?t=l1I0QDwvgXZL7qfay5yzXw&s=19

    neilnevill
    Free Member

    We won’t though.  To big a risk Puttin will escalate.

    1
    bikesandboots
    Full Member

    That’s barbaric and dreadful.

    However, so as not to dilute the meaning of those words, killing soldiers isn’t terrorism nor genocide, regardless of how it’s done.

    2

    Aye, that’s a breach of the Law of Armed Conflict & Geneva Conventions, the **** butchers that they are don’t care for such semantics though.

    alpin
    Free Member

    <hr />

    Seems that the terrorism/genocide is stepping up a gear.

    Can only hope the Republican Trumpers see this and think again about voting for the orange prick.

    1
    tthew
    Full Member

    Can only hope the Republican Trumpers see this and think again about voting for the orange prick.

    It’s really weird, the American’s moral fear of the ‘red under the bed’ but Putin is somehow acceptable, heroic even. (I know he’s not actually a Communist in the true sense of the word).

    3
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    There are reports that Ukraine is starting to successfully push Russia back in Kharkiv oblast.

    dissonance
    Full Member

    I know he’s not actually a Communist in the true sense of the word)

    Or in any sense of the word. He appeals to a certain type of yank who believes that in the apocalypse they would end up on top due to their natural masculinity and skill with a six shooter.

    Its a variation of the veil of ignorance thought experiment as the republicans know they would be born on top.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Putin is somehow acceptable, heroic even

    Because, put simply  he ‘owns the libs’

    *sigh*

    Culture wars make fools of us all.

    timba
    Free Member

    It’s really weird, the American’s moral fear of the ‘red under the bed’ but Putin is somehow acceptable, heroic even

    Donald Trump admires President Putin and feels that he has a score to settle with President Zelenskyy. Trump’s congressional followers do what Trump says, or he won’t endorse their ticket at the next election, and we only hear what the politicians project, rather than the electorate

    The fact that Trump endorsed nominees don’t always win the Primary vote is lost on his congressional followers, e.g. Katie Arrington in 2022, despite him often picking either incumbents or the current favourite and endorsing them only days before the vote, e.g. Sam Brown in 2024 (successfully).

    The voting population is a different kettle of fish. They don’t follow Trump’s endorsements (more he follows their likely choice) and they’ve become disillusioned with the decades of ‘red under the bed’, which started after the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and led to US projection of power everywhere in the world with few positive results to show for it, which Trump has learnt from.

    The electorate sees people “invading” over US borders while their government concentrates on military alliances and borders around Ukraine. Where the electorate goes the MAGA politicians follow, with a few choice populist messages to stoke the fires.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member
    Seems that the terrorism/genocide is stepping up a gear.

    I really am coming towards the view that the rest of the world needs to physically step up and just flatten all Russian military infrastructure across Ukraine and Russia and end this war.

    https://x.com/AndriyKostinUa/status/1803045963432411508?t=l1I0QDwvgXZL7qfay5yzXw&s=19

    Christ. Absolute barbarians.

    I agree, enough of this making Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind it’s back. 

    If Russia wins this, many countries, including us/ America will end up having to spill blood because Putin wasn’t stopped now.

    1
    faustus
    Full Member

    “Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and led to US projection of power everywhere in the world with few positive results to show for it, which Trump has learnt from.”

    I think that’s a bit of an under-baked assessment of how US projection of power has panned out since WW1. Whether you agree with its motivations and methods, it’s not controversial to say that the position of the US as a super power in military and economic terms, is in large part a direct result of its projection of power. Yes, there have been unsuccessful wars for them, but at the same time they are still the primary beneficiaries from the postwar settlement. This position has by and large been successfully defended. I don’t think the orange manbaby has the capacity to learn from history, he just uses his arrogance and ignorance to stir division.

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    I think that’s a bit of an under-baked assessment of how US projection of power has panned out since WW1

    Deliberately so but I accept the criticism. I’m trying strike a balance between going off-topic and explaining my point. I’ll look for a more accurate summary to link to without derailing the thread :)

    3

    Have you seen the video of Bibi moaning about the USA withholding weapons and munitions?

    In response the US administration has cancelled meetings with senior Israelis.

    2
    timba
    Free Member

    I’m trying strike a balance between going off-topic and explaining my point.

    There are a few ideas in these summaries that will give people an idea of what the US electorate sees…

    Book summary: “House of war: The Pentagon and the disastrous rise of American power” by J Carroll (2007) https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?&title=House%20of%20war%3A%20The%20Pentagon%20and%20the%20disastrous%20rise%20of%20American%20power&publication_year=2006&author=Carroll%2CJ

    Letter by Andrew J. Bacevich, Professor of International Relations and History, Boston University https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2009-09-01/limits-power-projection

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    This, and supply to the Azov Brigade, are signs that the gloves are slowly coming off

    The US has now clarified use of their systems to strike Russia; originally it was to defend Kharkiv and is now for the defence of anywhere in Ukraine. “Additionally, they can use air defense systems supplied by the United States to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace,” https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-us-missiles-de0597baa92a722779769efdff580732

    2
    timba
    Free Member

    The electorate sees people “invading” over US borders while their government concentrates on military alliances and borders around Ukraine. Where the electorate goes the MAGA politicians follow, with a few choice populist messages to stoke the fires.

    It’s worth 5 minutes to listen as Donald Trump joins the “All-In Podcast” with David Sacks and gives his version of world events, with a few mangled timelines. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/06/20/watch_full_donald_trump_interview_on_all-in_podcast.html (Ukraine 20:30 to 25:10)

    A few quotes for those who might not want to listen:

    US is giving “probably, we’re at least, $100bn more” into Ukraine than Europe (stats show that Europe donates more than the US https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ )

    The invasion of Ukraine happened because the price of oil was high “and he (Putin) had all this money to prosecute the war” and had Donald Trump been in power “Ukraine would have never happened, the Israeli attack would have never happened and inflation would have never happened” (oil prices rose after covid, which coincided with the change of US President. Trump’s final numbers https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/ )

    “If Ukraine goes into NATO then it’s a real problem for Russia, I’ve heard that for a long time, and I think that’s really why this war started” (a mangled timeline “From 2010 to 2014, Ukraine pursued a non-alignment policy, which it terminated in response to Russia’s aggression. In June 2017, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation reinstating membership in NATO as a strategic foreign and security policy objective. In 2019, a corresponding amendment to Ukraine’s Constitution entered into force.” NATO website)

    He forgets that Russia had invaded Crimea and the Donbas regions in 2014, two years before his election as President

    1
    Poopscoop
    Full Member
    2
    DT78
    Free Member

    all sorts of stuff still going on. most interesting recent article was learning about “sea baby” naval drone and how theyve been taking the ships out. thryve changed tactics, it was kamikaze drones, now they are able to lay stealth mines at the entrances to the harbours….thats how they damaged the recent russian ships

    tagnut69
    Free Member

    Have there been any recent updates on the dam collapse?

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    Dam collapse? In Ukraine or in russia?

    Interesting three way standoff with North Korea, russia, South Korea and Ukraine re weapons supplies. North Korea having supplied russia already.
    Then russia threatening (again) to target US for supplying equipment that landed as debris on a Crimean beach.

    timba
    Free Member

    Have there been any recent updates on the dam collapse?

    Is this a new story? It coincides with the anniversary of the Nova Kakhovka dam (6th June) and the ongoing Rapidan Dam collapse in the US

    timba
    Free Member

    Interesting three way standoff with North Korea, russia, South Korea and Ukraine re weapons supplies. North Korea having supplied russia already.

    There’s an interesting dynamic with China/NKorea/Russia as well. China is potentially losing influence with NKorea to Russia. NKorea and China are historically not great friends and Russia could supply more advanced missile tech to NKorea in exchange for the weapons it needs

    Then russia threatening (again) to target US for supplying equipment that landed as debris on a Crimean beach.

    Russia attempting to derail US weapons to Ukraine/gradual expansion of their use in Russia. The supply to Ukraine’s front lines hasn’t hit full speed yet and Ukraine is already talking about cutting logistics to Crimea via the Kerch bridge

    DT78
    Free Member

    lastest reports are it was a russian AA missle that caused the injuries / deaths on the Crimean beach.

    Suits both sides naratives to blame the other.  Also read a US observer drone has been shot down, which contradicts the whole ‘ russian kit is shit’ narrative that is being pushed by our media

    1
    pk13
    Full Member

    Drones are getting  shot down the US lost 3 this year tbh one came down 100% intact due to jamming allegedly there are photos of it with people standing on it reaper I believe

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Christ, that children’s hospital being hit by Russia.

    Kids sat outside on IV’s, bald due to cancer treatment whilst their hospital is in ruins behind them.

    Sickening.

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    Utter Barbarity, war crimes upon war crimes upon war crimes, t’is the Russian way of war.

    Caher
    Full Member

    Putin got a nice big hug from enabler Modi too.

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