If thats the Russian losses, what then are the Ukrainian losses ?

I know it’s all propaganda anyway, but in truth the Ukrainian forces must have lost a lot too.

Zelensky estimated 31k soldiers as of Feb this year.

US estimated 70k by August last year.

Who knows really but I’d give more credence to the US figure.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

As for the equipment figures posted, I’d guess that Russia has lost way more than Ukraine even had (to begin with plus what was supplied throughout).

Another 10 min written article + upcoming podcast on the current situation in Ukraine by Phillips P. O’Brien.

It puts a sense of perspective back into the gloom and doom-mongering from certain media sources. It’s quite spread out, with maps, so keep scrolling…

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-81-much-of-the-portrayed

That Philips O’Brien article is interesting and much of it chimes with this analysis of Russia’s Kharkiv offensive from Anders Puck Nielsen.

looking like a brand new Russian missile Carrier was sunk 2 days ago…

Confirmation of the Sunk Karakurt-Class (Pr.22800) Missile Corvette “Tsyklon” in Crimea

This likely means Ukraine got the non-cluster ATACMS, perfect for anti-ship use(as the base Missile is literally anti-ship).

It also means there are no Missile Carriers in Crimea anymore pic.twitter.com/l0ZWB28V83

— WarVehicleTracker (@WarVehicle) May 21, 2024

At the current rate, we are only 3 or so days away from a projected staggering half a million lost russian personnel in the Ukraine war. The grind continues.

22.05.2024
Tanks — 7611 (+6)
Armored fighting vehicle — 14721 (+22)
Artillery systems — 12820 (+41)
MLRS — 1077
Anti-aircraft warfare — 812 (+1)
Planes — 354
Helicopters — 326
UAV — 10346 (+56)
Cruise missiles — 2208 (+1)
Ships (boats) — 27
Submarines — 1
Cars and cisterns — 17442 (+59)
Special equipment — 2090 (+5)
Military personnel — aprx. 496370 people (+1300)

this is new (the sea baby drones)

🇺🇦🚤 Tests of the Sea Baby marine drone and mini MLRS. The video shows a recent application. pic.twitter.com/ekl13jN3Wk

— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 22, 2024

I would love to know how many weeks away from stopping the russians via attrition. If a fighting force is reduced to say 1/3 it usually gets amalgamation with another below strength unit.
Yes the Russians had alot of kit , but they lost alot of it , and I doubt they can manufacture new at anywhere near the rate it’s being blown up.
Just need to keep on doing what they are doing and eventually it will be Bradley V ww2 era machinery. Manned by conscripts with a few weeks training who don’t want to be there, and are fighting for no reason.

We’ve been hearing variations that for such a long time

• cant sustain this level of personel lost
• cant sustain this level of materiel lost
• cant politically afford to conscript any more people
• cant re-equip the new conscripts anyway
• can’t train anyone new
• morale too low to be effective
• all the conscripts are drunk
• all the officers are dead
• all the experienced people are dead

And yet, still they come. Somethings not checking out. Perhaps the above is wishful thinking, perhaps its comparably true for ukr forces. I dunno.

don’t forget running out of missiles too.

it seems unsustainable, but somehow it continues.

A bit of it wishful thinking

but Russia have done a very good job of getting new supplies, North Korea, Iran etc- when drone & missile debris is analysed a lot of components are getting round western sanctions via 3rd countries and NK have given them a lot of artillery

As for manpower, Russia has lost more men than they did in Afghanistan, but Putin has complete control over the media and a very effective security apparatus, and 144 million people to draw from- 20million men available for service….https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_global_manpower_fit_for_military_service

and theyve been steadily replenishing with fresh meat & their economy now on a war footing*

not to say it wont be having an impact, but Putin is mad enough to keep it up for some time

* worth noting that UK industry is so degraded now that just like WW2 we’d be dependent on other countries were we actually to go to war because we have allowed our manufacturing capacity to fade away

They really make an art form of breaking Rule 1
https://bbc.com/news/articles/c899844ypj2o

^^ Putin and Russia can go **** themselves frankly.

You can see why Estonia has always had such concerns over Russia and why it’s been trying to wake the rest of Europe up for so long to the very real threat.

Early warning ICBM radar taken out.

Early warning ICBM radar taken out.

It’s almost as if Ukraine has a plan to reduce Russia’s reflexive control of wavering western countries by demonstrating that nuclear threats are only threats.

You wouldn’t go into a nuclear war knowing that you couldn’t “see” incoming ICBMs

There are other benefits too

Here’s a link to the radar site story on Twitter

https://x.com/baklitskiy/status/1793961223370752351

Also further pressure on Russia, we can knock out your early warning systems that are really expensive and hard to replace. The ongoing costs of the war are escalating.

Also further pressure on Russia, we can knock out your early warning systems that are really expensive and hard to replace. The ongoing costs of the war are escalating.

This.

While it’s easy to think that Russia can draw conscripts from 144m people and overcome Ukraine’s defences by brute force it’s also well worth remembering that a large number of highly specialised personnel with years of expensive and intensive training behind them have also been casualties in this conflict.

they are basically poking out russias eyes and cutting off their ears

quite a few reports about various air defence sites being taken put by atacms too.

So they can use the F16 in a safer environment. In and out before the russians know what’s dropped munitions and back into a hardened hanger for replen.

So they can use the F16 in a safer environment

Ukraine will be looking further into their future. The US elections are six months away with no obvious lead for either candidate and Nikki Haley has announced that her vote will go to Donald Trump, although she isn’t exhorting her supporters to vote for him.

Trump admires President Putin, which is a huge risk for Ukraine. Following the US election is winter, which reduces military options and increases the strain on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which is another huge risk for Ukraine. Europe isn’t getting its act together and various national campaigns have yielded more than EU-co-operation, e.g. the Czech ammunition initiative gathered far more in much less time.

US mainstream media, social media and Ukraine’s government are putting pressure on the US government to allow Ukraine’s defence into Russian territory with western weapons. We’ve seen that wavering European states will follow the US and anything that Ukraine can do to facilitate that will help, hence the destruction of part of the Voronezh-DM system in Armavir, which is an indirect strike against Russia’s nuclear defences. This will have other benefits as have been pointed out in subsequent posts ^^

F16, ATACMS, etc can only achieve so much if restricted to Ukraine’s international borders while Russia deploys whatever it wants, from wherever it wants

Another 10 min written article on the current situation in Ukraine by Phillips P. O’Brien.

It puts a sense of perspective back into the gloom and doom-mongering from certain media sources. It’s quite spread out, with maps, so keep scrolling… https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-82-crossing-two-red

I’ll stop posting these links, you know where to look going forward 🙂

A Voronezh M radar in Orsk, Russia was attacked yesterday. “A Ukrainian drone has covered a distance of more than 1,800 kilometres to the enemy’s facility, setting a new record for the range of destruction for kamikaze drones.” https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/27/7457788/

1800km is a massive range if it’s flown the whole way. 1000km is fairly normal

The “Voronezh DM site, located in the village of Gluboky” referred to in the same article is the one that I referred to ^^ as Armavir. You can find Armavir much more easily on a map 🙂

Sweden has followed the UK by announcing that the weapons that it supplied to Ukraine can be used on Russian international territory.

Poland supports Ukraine’s use of western weapons too, probably before UK’s announcement, but I’m unsure of where that fits in the timeline https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/25/poland-foreign-minister-radoslaw-sikorski-long-term-rearmament-europe

Nice sense of irony that a drone flew 1,800km to knock out a long range, over the horizon radar!

Just came back from a week in Krakow, Poland. They are understandably much more concerned than we are over here about the imminent threat posed by Russia to wider Europe. I wouldn’t say they are convinced war is coming but they are taking absolutely no chances in preparing for it over the next ten years.

They’ve built fortifications along the border with Belarus, created a drone defence system along their border, and have upped their defence spending to 4% of GDP.

We were stuck on the tarmac yesterday for a while before taking off because they temporarily closed Polish airspace for some military movement and the night before they had been conducting huge F16 and AWACS patrols along the whole eastern airspace corridor to prevent russian missiles crossing over the Polish border on the way to Ukraine like they did earlier this year.

A lot of funny business has been going on like a large arson attack on a shopping centre in Warsaw which they said they can’t rule out russian state sponsored terrorism, and removing the border buoys from the river in Narva, Estonia but that sort of thing doesn’t seem to be getting reported much at home.

https://x.com/PerErikSchulze/status/1794828268480438514?t=UFKe1i_M1SWBrmdJJL39mg&s=19

A few posts re the F16’s again “later” this year on Twitter (formally X).

Any updates as to when they may actually be arriving in Ukraine.

Sweden apparently planning to supply AEW aircraft. That will help the F16s a lot.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1795724163652665813

https://www.government.se/press-releases/2024/05/military-support-package-16-to-ukraine–new-capability-to-strengthen-ukraines-air-defence-and-support-to-meet-its-prioritised-needs/

That is great news!

If we knew exactly when the F16’s were arriving then that’s be a huge opsec failure on the part of ‘team Ukraine’

I fully expect them to be active at some point this year, but I’m.not going to speculate at to exactly when.

Also, an interesting analysis on how the US, ‘no use of US supplied weapons on recognised Russian territory’ rule is crippling Ukraine’s effort.

Russian sabotage over Europe?https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/30/europe-on-high-alert-after-suspected-moscow-linked-arson-and-sabotage?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17170569035555&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Farticle%2F2024%2Fmay%2F30%2Feurope-on-high-alert-after-suspected-moscow-linked-arson-and-sabotage

Ferries and a rail boat attacked near the Kirch bridge- details are a bit sketchy at the moment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo

US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use American-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US officials say.

^^I think we are just seeing the horrendously slow and inevitable conclusion unfold. Ukraine can’t be required by the West to continue to fight a far larger enemy with one arm tied behind it’s back.

Putin will no doubt be rattling on as usual about reprisals and nuclear war but the fact is, if Putin wins in Ukraine the world is a far more dangerous place as a result.

Give Ukraine what it needs and let them have at it. If it’s military, it’s in Russia and it’s remotely likely to be used against Ukraine let them **** it up.

Such ill advice to encourage Ukraine to fight on with senseless life loss with no chance of pushing the Russian back.

The American is basically sending the Ukrainian to their death.  Yes, Russia will have many death but Ukraine cannot afford that.

The American is basically sending the Ukrainian to their death.

Ukraine is fighting because they don’t want to be invaded by Russia. They will keep fighting regardless of whether they have American support, it’s just that their chances are much better with support than without it. If it’s Ukrainian lives that you care about, you would be in favour of sending as much equipment as necessary to evict Russia from Ukrainian territory.

The American is basically sending the Ukrainian to their death.

So fight for freedom or

give in and live under a violent dictator who steals your children, presides over state sponsored terrorism and anti-freedom actions, who will also gain more resources, bodies and confidence to carry on invading countries.

When, after successfully invading Ukraine (not if), Putin invades Estonia, Finland, Czechia, Poland and Slovakia, what would you say then? Roll over?

i find it interesting the term sabotage is being used. Given europe is not actually at war if recent arsons can be linked to russia its actuslly terrorism.

its probably quite easy to hire a thug or two thats would be happy to torch a target of your choice for the right money. probably dont even know or care its russian money they are taking