Ukraine

I guess force projection, like the tank is an outdated concept. ?

What the Ukraine war has taught us is the value of drones; force projection making every ship an aircraft/missile carrier rather than one big fat target that costs a fortune.

So yes, aircraft carriers, but not like the current behemoths

The big powers argue over who owns insignificant islands, they’re permanent aircraft carriers for force projection. China has built artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago, hence the west asserting the right to free navigation by sailing warships through the S.China Sea (legally, you can’t declare a territorial exclusion around a naturally submerged reef with an airfield on top)

Main Battle Tanks (MBTs)? Now there’s a debate that the Ukraine war has also ignited. It’s fair to say that MBTs aren’t being used as envisaged behind artillery and air cover and combined with well-drilled ground forces. The ground conditions further east aren’t as good as the big roads of western Europe either

Lighter armoured fighting vehicles OTH are extremely valuable in many scenarios and they’re way more portable

The lessons from Ukraine for me: Lots, Lighter, Cheaper and Quick to manufacture

I imagine that in the near future massive aircraft carriers will be replaced by many more much smaller, cheaper, faster, drone swarm carriers.

Stuff like the ukraine naval drones that they’ve modified to lay mines and shoot rockets.  Imagine what the tech will be capable of in 10 years time.

I tend to agree with the poster above, Russia could probably have bought its way to influence in ukraine with its vast natural reserves but chose the route of war.

Rubble collapses to 100 a dollar. Interest rates at 21%, soon to be higher, inflation at somewhere like 25%. Gasprom loosing billions.

I imagine that in the near future massive aircraft carriers will be replaced by many more much smaller, cheaper, faster, drone swarm carriers.

It’s all rather worrying, the RN T45 destroyers carry 48 SAM’s.

They cost about £900k each.

They have been used recently to shoot down drones that cost something like 10k each.

The system cannot be reloaded at sea.

Send a load of drones, say 60, then send your attack aircraft and it would seem that’s pretty much job done.

With the capabilities of modern aircrafts no country needs any aircraft carriers to protect themselves from foreign aggression.

I’m glad you’re not in charge of defense. Look at it this way; do you think it would be better to fight your enemy off their coastline, or yours?

Well I’m glad that I’m not too!

If you are telling me that the UK needs aircraft carriers to  repel an attack from, say Russia, then it is even more complex than I had begun to imagine it was! I had assumed that modern military aircraft could reach as far as the Russian coastline.

Won’t fellow NATO allies such as Germany and Poland allow the UK warplanes to be stationed on their soil? If not what’s the point of NATO?

Pity the vast majority of countries in the world that have no costly aircraft carriers and are presumably therefore at serious risk of foreign aggression. Although they obviously have more money to spend on other equally important stuff.

What the Ukraine war has taught us is the value of drones

You need to add “when you haven’t achieved air supremacy” Same with the discussion about Tanks. Russia (like the CCCP before it) uses tanks in a very different way to NATO/western forces, and I think what we’ve seen in Ukraine is that that doctrine doesn’t work well. Tanks in pretty much all western armed forces are co-ordinated with artillery, air fores and ground troops in a way that Russia’s aren’t – they just send them in either en-masse in an uncoordinated attack, or in smaller single or multiple units, but still generally left to fend for themselves. They rely on numbers rather than anything else. You can’t really look at what’s happened to Russian tanks and apply that to all tanks.

then it is even more complex than I had begun to imagine it was!

Well, you’ve learned something then, haven’t you?

Send a load of drones, say 60, then send your attack aircraft and it would seem that’s pretty much job done.

Yep – you wouldn’t even need the attack aircraft.  I don’t think our current fleet isn’t sustainable given the way drones have come into play.  They need an equally cheap and readily available way of defending themselves.  Maybe we will see drone wars in the future – swarms of attack drones trying to get past swarms of anti-drone drones.

In fact the actual ships become even less important, you’d be better off launching a whole bunch of drones from several small cheap fast ships  and have all the operators sat safely miles from the conflict.

You could even have the drone swarms on subs, surface, deploy drones, slip away.

I think the modern navy in our life time is going to be completely re-imagined – if not lets hope it never gets into a real conflict

I’m sure the boffins are all over it and analysing how ukraine has neutralised the russian black sea fleet

Its all a bit sci-fi really.

Back on topic, the reporting from the front lines isn’t sounding great for ukraine.  Its all going to kick off in kursk soon, apparently those 10k NK troops are already engaged and Russia advancing in several places on other fronts.  I’m starting to feel ukraine can’t hold on much longer

 Maybe we will see drone wars in the future – swarms of attack drones trying to get past swarms of anti-drone drones.

Drones are easily defeated by electronic counter measures. Any FPV drone is controlled by electronic signals and they can be interrupted and if you can’t guide your drone, or it can’t receive a signal then it’s useless and it’ll fall out of the sky. Again, don’t apply what you’re watching in Ukraine to wider conflicts or other armed forces, both are behaving they way they are because 1. Russian (and by extension; ex-soviet) military hardware, training, and tactics turn out to be a pile of dog-shit, and 2, Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower, experience, strategic knowledge or weaponry to take advantage of that in a way that other modern military forces maybe could.

 I’m starting to feel ukraine can’t hold on much longer

However bad it is for Ukraine, it’s worse for Russia. Their doctrine calls for lots and lots of troops and lots and lots of tanks, and they’ve pretty much started to run out of both. The tactics they’ve used thus far, and it doesn’t look like they can change, aren’t going to work without the quantities they’re reliant on.

True, to some extent, they are developing (and maybe using?) drones that don’t need to be operated and use on board AI to hit their targets.  So short of some sort of EMP (if that exists) I can’t see how you will stop those without physically disabling them.

And I am sure Russia is hurting too, however much they are, they are still taking ground and pulling in troops from other countries – who is ukraine going to turn to to rustle up another 10k troops for the front line?  I imagine that 10k from NK is just the start as Russia tries to pull in troops from its allies

The Russians already operate ECM against drones and I’ve seen footage by TV channels of Ukrainian drones being lost as they encounter these systems. I dunno about AI drones, if they use they same sorts of electronics, then they’re equally vulnerable I suppose.

The most effective weapons the Russians have developed seem to be glide bombs. Launched by SU34s and TU22 from inside Russian airspace, they can glide up to 100’s of KM and are pretty precise, I thought it was against these sorts of weapons that the F-16 would be deployed, but I’ve not seen any evidence yet,

 they can glide up to 100’s of KM and are pretty precise,

I thought that was not the case – more that Russians are happy to lob them at a city and *anything* hit is OK by them.

Russian casualties have soared to 1950 yesterday and similar levels previously.

I’ve seen dozens of smoking dead Russian tanks with electronic countermeasures on them, which have been totally useless. Also the turtle tanks have been worse than useless!

Won’t fellow NATO allies such as Germany and Poland allow the UK warplanes to be stationed on their soil?

IIRC correctly Italy were charging us £1m/day for using their airfields during the fracas in Libya, when we were ‘between aircraft carries’. You can argue about whether the intervention in Libya was a good idea or not but it would undoubtedly have been better with carriers.

The lessons from Ukraine for me: Lots, Lighter, Cheaper and Quick to manufacture

See also: T34/Sherman Vs Tiger/Panther. Quantity has always been a massive advantage.

You need to add “when you haven’t achieved air supremacy

We need to redefine “air supremacy” first, starting within the context of drones.

Ukraine has arguably achieved “Air Superiority” under the existing definition. You could go further and say that the “opposing air force is incapable of effective interference”, i.e. “Air Supremacy” ( https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/Other_Pubs/aap6.pdf )

Drones are easily defeated by electronic counter measures. Any FPV drone is controlled by electronic signals and they can be interrupted and if you can’t guide your drone, or it can’t receive a signal then it’s useless and it’ll fall out of the sky.

AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone. Cruise missiles already compare visual cues to pre-programmed mapping

I thought that was not the case – more that Russians are happy to lob them at a city and *anything* hit is OK by them.

They are reasonably accurate, but Russia has tended to develop “wings” for bigger warheads rather than increase accuracy on a smaller warhead. One or two of four 500kg bombs are likely to be more accurate than one 3 tonne bomb. The other two or three are in the *anything* hit is OK category.

Circular error of probability (CEP) isn’t for any individual bomb, it’s a statistical analysis of many ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable ) and the bigger weapons are likely to be worse

“Fighterbomber* claims the new FAB-1500M-54-UGCM is accurate to 15 yards. “We consider these numbers to be exaggerated,” the independent Conflict Intelligence Team stated.” (*a Russian Telegram channel) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/07/russias-got-a-giant-new-glide-bomb/?sh=5a90edcc5ea5

The smaller 500kg bombs can also travel further, which makes the aircraft safer due to the greater range for Ukraine’s AD to interception. Aircrews are therefore less likely to be concerned about AD and so rush the release. To impart maximum range the aircraft needs to zoom upwards, which makes for a target aircraft free of ground clutter and showing its greatest area to radar

Quantity has always been a massive advantage.

“Quantity has a quality all its own” Russians will tell you that’s a Russian quote and Americans will say that it’s American 🙂

AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone.

which then defeats the purpose of them being cheap and easily manufactured in large numbers, they’re a different thing to infantry fielded quick and easily deployed light battlefield weapons.

Well, you’ve learned something then, haven’t you?

It’s one of the main reasons I come to stw.

IIRC correctly Italy were charging us £1m/day for using their airfields during the fracas in Libya, when we were ‘between aircraft carries’. You can argue about whether the intervention in Libya was a good idea or not but it would undoubtedly have been better with carriers.

The rotary assets were carrier based. We didn’t have any carrier fixed-wing aircraft so even if HMSQE/PW were about, they’d have had pretty empty decks.

AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone

How this plays out will likely inform the coming conversations to consider the legal parameters governing their use, for NATO in the future.

Some interesting briefing papers from the IRC and UN in circulation on this topic.

This analysis suggests Russia will start struggling economically late next year.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/russia-war-putin-economy-weapons-production-labor-shortage-demographics/

So the same prediction as last year then ?.

So the same prediction as last year then ?.

And the year before that

Yeah the Russian economy is in a fine shape! The Rubble being worth 1cent and an interest rate of 25% are sure signs of that ;))

So the same prediction as last year then ?.

Were you going to suggest the Russian economy isn’t struggling?

The Russian economy in terms of global economies is the Alex Jones of the podcast space. No matter the hits that **** for some inexplicable reason wont fold. It’s like a **** cockroach.

And the year before that…

That would be 2022 when problems were acknowledged by Russia

“Russia’s economy is experiencing serious blows,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with foreign journalists. “But there is a certain margin of safety, there is potential, there are some plans, work is underway.” https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/02/business/russia-markets-economy-sberbank/index.html

The Russian economy began to falter way before that in 2013. Russia took Crimea in 2014 and GDP alone lost a third of its value to 2020

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, against the backdrop of Russia’s market-rate GDP losing a third of its value between 2013 and 2020, represents a doubling down of Putin’s strategy to seek legitimacy from “great power status,” rather than economic performance. https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-for-collapse-178605

It’s clear that economies don’t fail overnight and an article written in 2022 doesn’t mean that failure will happen within a couple of years. The point of the article linked to by thols2 is…

Implicit in this argument is the view that Russia has the ability to sustain the war for many years to come. On close examination of the evidence, however, the narrative that Russia has the resources to prevail if it so chooses does not hold.

The assessment for 14th November by ISW also focuses on economic and industrial production https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-14-2024

The Russian economy in terms of global economies is the Alex Jones of the podcast space.

Sadly an optimistic view since that turds influence has been massively curtailed. Would be fun to see the Onion buy out Russia though. Probably be a worryingly well run country.

Ultimately there are enough other countries profiting from sanctions evasion and the western powers arent willing to really try and break that.

Good sky article on it.

https://news.sky.com/story/brand-new-luxury-british-and-european-cars-are-entering-russia-despite-being-banned-heres-how-13218444

With the relaxed approach to elections and the habit of anyone who seriously opposes Putin to fall out of a window they are going to be able to keep going with a wartime economy indefinitely. Its the classic Hemingway quote about going bankrupt “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Some point it will fail but who knows when and its possible they will outlast Ukraine especially whats happened in the USA.

On the economic front…last gas to much of Europe this year.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/austrias-omv-informed-by-gazprom-that-deliveries-be-reduced-0-says-platform-2024-11-15/

Another 10 billion dollars a year Russia and Gazprom won’t be getting ;))

I found this an interesting, short read on the effects returning Russian soldiers, many of them hardened criminals, are having when they return to civilian life.

So many unknown butterfly effects of this brutal war that are going to appear over the years to come.

Russia’s soldiers bringing wartime violence back home

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e7vl01gngo

Apparently Biden has given go ahead for long range weapon use in Kursk, maybe beyond.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/11/17/biden-authorises-long-range-missiles-ukraine-strike-russia/

About god damned time.

Hopefully Storm Shadows soon, America was able to veto their use (I’m pretty sure) as they contain some US tech.

Cue Putin no doubt issuing his usual word salad about “proportionate responses” with a smidgen of “we have nukes” shit and red lines. Yawn.

That’s a bit late in the day, but very welcome nonetheless.  Ukraine’s power network got absolutely mullered again today in another massive strike. 10 people killed and a cynical attempt to freeze and blackout the civilian population as they go into winter. The ability for Ukraine to strike back at some of the bases, infrastructure and hardware that enables these attacks is most welcome.

Think it’s more about preserving the bridgehead in kursk, which I’m not sure will have the leverage needed to get the settlement they want. whilst embarrassing for Putin it has a shelf life. How long can Ukraine sustain that bargaining chip? I hope they’ve got another ace up their sleeve.

Apparently Biden has given go ahead for long range weapon use in Kursk, maybe beyond.

I cant help but wonder if thats just a parting gift for Trump to deal with the fallout(pun) of.

Hopefully yes, Trump left Biden to deal with Afghanistan.

I cant help but wonder if thats just a parting gift for Trump to deal with the fallout(pun) of.

It’s a response to Russian escalation. I think that we forget that Russia has been doing the escalation AND controlling the narrative:

Illegal occupation of Crimea
Illegal invasion of Donbas
Illegal invasion of the rest of Ukraine
Threats of nuclear weapons (several times)
War crimes, including destroying civilian infrastructure, targeting civilian population, use of chemical weapons, execution/maltreatment of PoWs, kidnapping children, etc.
Recruiting an army from a third country (N.Korea)

It’s time that this was stopped

Fingers crossed this well let Ukraine do something about the air strips Russia’s been launching those damn glide bombs from.

Those have been bedevilling Ukraine for the last year and are a huge part of why they’ve been losing ground as they were  air launched from deep inside Russia and there was no way of countering them.

Included in war crimes but let’s not forget

Torture

the deliberate destruction of that massive dam and subsequent flooding

targeting of hospitals, inc a children’s hospital

This isn’t an escalation. Ukraine should have had this capability all along, the fact that they’ve had to wait so long is on Biden. His Ukraine policy has been totally inadequate.