Ukraine

Russia then decides to stop hitting infrastructure and concentrate on wiping out Ukrainian families en masse.

What, like they did in Bucha? Like that?

And Mariupol 🙁

It doesn’t make it “right”, but Ukraine’s ability to strike targets in Russia might bring an end to the madness that is this war

Of course it doesn’t, and every death is a tragedy.

But what that does mean is that it’s harder work for the Russians to use them.

Yes, to an extent. The aircraft are a small cog that will still work effectively after an additional 15 minutes flight time. More dispersed aircraft means more dispersed logistics, which is also an issue, but Russian aircraft and logistics will be far enough away from long-range weapons to overcome that.

The long-range weapons won’t now be aimed at the small cogs, but the bigger wheels of command and control, its communications, computers, facilities and personnel.

They’ll continue to strike personnel training, fuel and weapons supply lines. Without these the aircraft are static display pieces

Map here… https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/interactive-map-hundreds-known-russian-military-objects-are-range-atacms

I also suspect this is why there is a Ukrainian focus on longer range drones.

I’m sure you’re right that aircraft will remain on the list

It doesn’t make it “right”, but Ukraine’s ability to strike targets in Russia might bring an end to the madness that is this war

Nope, the time to supply Ukraine with everything it needed to rout the Russians from it’s borders was back in march 2022 (or 2014 if I’m being pedantic), since then Putin has placed the Russian state on a war footing and reinforced its capabilities to dig in and hold on for the long run.

Ukraine is never going to get its land back – the western nations have sold Ukraine down the river, we have dithered to such an extent that Putin knows he’s won.

Ukraine is never going to get its land back – the western nations have sold Ukraine down the river, we have dithered to such an extent that Putin knows he’s won.

See also “red line chemical weapons Syria Assad”

Zelensky needs to call Putin telling him to keep what’s he’s got and see if they can call it quits. If you want to escalate it more get over there and fight .

Zelensky needs to call Putin telling him to keep what’s he’s got and see if they can call it quits. If you want to escalate it more get over there and fight .

And if you want to tell Ukrainians to hand over their country “get over there” and tell them to their face.

Zelensky needs to call Putin telling him to keep what’s he’s got and see if they can call it quits. If you want to escalate it more get over there and fight .

I’m sure Putin would be 100% happy with what he’s acquired, and definitely won’t regroup and come back for more later.

since then Putin has placed the Russian state on a war footing and reinforced its capabilities to dig in and hold on for the long run.

I noticed interest rates in Russia are now at 19%, hiked just yesterday. That’s not sustainable.

Zelensky needs to call Putin telling him to keep what’s he’s got and see if they can call it quits.

Good plan. It worked well in  2014.

Trumps plan is to tell Zelensky to give up the Donbas or he withdraws US support.   Let’s pray that Harris wins.

He wouldnt stop there . Russia have way more territory on the ground to the south to pull forces back and settle for just the Donbas.   Zelensky to hand the Donbas but Russia to pay reporations  to Ukraine for 26 months of damage and loss and Putin to stand in Hauge in front of the ICC .    Ah such a simple idea

This mass drive and need on here for escalation is disturbing.

It’s always been like this on this thread. Armchair generals fantasising about WW3. It’s terrifying and depressing in equal measure.

I think there’s a big difference between escalation for the sake of it and standing up to aggression. There are often parallels drawn with the 1930s, quite accurately in my opinion. Nobody wanted an escalation over the Rhineland, Austria, Czechoslovakia… But ultimately the earlier we had got involved the easier it would have been.

I know the political situation in Ukraine at the time, in terms of corruption etc, made it difficult for Western leaders to be seen to be supplying Ukraine with this current level of military support but we should have have given them everything they needed to take back Crimea and the other occupied areas. I don’t normally say very positive things about our previous government but at least they started the process of training Ukrainian soldiers back then. However, if we had gone all in and granted them NATO membership we wouldn’t be where we are now. We are either involved or we aren’t, we either let Putin do what he wants or we stop him, hanging about in the middle doing neither is just dragging this out

It’s always been like this on this thread. Armchair generals fantasising about WW3. It’s terrifying and depressing in equal measure.

A gross distortion, and a bit of an insult tbh.  There are a few on here who have enough experience of the realities to be having nightmares about the prospect of a WW, rather than ‘fantasising’ about it.  Perhaps they think that appeasing Putin and encouraging him in his desire to recreate the Soviet empire will make a major European war far more likely?  I know I do. It’s fine to express an alternative view, but maybe without the insults eh?

It’s terrifying and depressing in equal measure.

Why? What possible impact will some people nattering on a cycling forum have on geopolitics?

It seems highly unlikely Ukraine gets the land Russia is currently occupying back – the best they can hope for is that they can stop Russia taking any more.

Europe/USA and its allies also need to start decoupling itself from China. It appears China are benefiting the most out of the current situation .. so let them start paying an economical price for supporting Russia.

Europe/USA and its allies also need to start decoupling itself from China

Yes if you want the UK economy to collapse completely. And no doubt the US would be facing monumental problems itself, as well as pretty much everyone tied to them as allies.

To ‘decouple’ would take an extremely long time and mean immense investment, the likes of which have never been seen.

No easy job to kickstart dozens of industries that China currently supplies.

No easy job to kickstart dozens of industries that China currently supplies.

It’s happening by default anyway. More and more manufacturing is moving from China to India, Vietnam and others. Because of increasing wages, an ageing workforce in China and a load of other factors.  It won’t happen overnight but that’s the direction of travel.

No easy job to kickstart dozens of industries that China currently supplies.

Yes, like it or not, the economic relationship between ‘the west’ and the ‘far east’ is far too entwined and symbiotic to do much about with any great speed.

manufacturing is moving from China

the company I recently left did this about 5 years ago due to cost- moved final assembly to the Philippines from China. Some components are still sourced from Chinese suppliers but they are looking for cheaper alternatives.

manufacturing is moving from China

My employer is also doing this. Vietnam, Turkey and other places I can no longer keep track of. At least in part due to the sanctions introduced by Trump but also a desire not to be caught out again next time there’s a global pandemic and everyone in China stops making things.

It seems highly unlikely UkraineRussia gets the land RussiaUkraine is currently occupying back – the best they can hope for is that they can stop RussiaUkraine taking any more.

FTFY.

the company I recently left did this about 5 years ago due to cost- moved final assembly to the Philippines from China. Some components are still sourced from Chinese suppliers but they are looking for cheaper alternatives.

Could do with its own thread, as a knock on consequence of potential economic troubles for China is political trouble, and the entity that is China has a track record that is extremely long, and at times, extremely violent and it’s a lot of people needing fed.

Could do with its own thread, as a knock on consequence of potential economic troubles for China is political trouble, and the entity that is China has a track record that is extremely long, and at times, extremely violent and it’s a lot of people needing fed.

I’m still pondering the eventual outcome of Ukraine being that China ends up with Siberia.

It looks like the man arrested for planning to assassinate Trump yesterday was a Pro-Ukraine activist.

I have zero clue how this plays out but Ukraine and Trump’s determination to sell them out is now surely going to be a major point of discussion in the US election, at least over the next week.

Ukraine and Trump’s determination to sell them out is now surely going to be a major point of discussion in the US election, at least over the next week.

New “major issues” for the election arise about every three days and the old ones are forgotten.

I also suspect this is why there is a Ukrainian focus on longer range drones.

The Black Sea Fleet has now sailed from Novorossiysk, which is outside ATACMS range but not Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-black-sea-fleet-grouping-leaves-the-base-in-novorossiysk/

This mass drive and need on here for escalation is disturbing.
It’s always been like this on this thread. Armchair generals fantasising about WW3. It’s terrifying and depressing in equal measure.

WW3 is exactly what people don’t want and is what a balanced political approach is about.

Sure, there will be questions about whether the balance is correct in the face of Russia escalating by getting more and more weapons from Iran, N.Korea and others.

I’d like to think that for the most part the thread is balanced and thoughtful, but I don’t think that (m)any are fantasising about WW3

The Black Sea Fleet has now sailed from Novorossiysk, which is outside ATACMS range but not Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-black-sea-fleet-grouping-leaves-the-base-in-novorossiysk/

So where is that going? From the web link it looks like freighters not warships. Heading for Georgia to pick up military hardware from Iran transported overland?

From the web link it looks like freighters not warships.

It’s a stock photo according to the image credit.

A gross distortion, and a bit of an insult tbh.

Fair enough on the armchair generals comment but this thread over the past couple of years has displayed quite a bit of that. I suppose what I’m talking about is the clamour on here for more fighting, more bombs, more missiles etc being dropped on Russia. That’s only going to go in one direction. The only solution to this geopolitical cluster**** is negotiations, and no one – especially on this thread – seems interested in doing that. Anyone who suggests de-escalation or negotiations is dismissed and insulted as an appeaser. This is not the 1930s, there is a huge difference between this situation and that one (the involvement of nuclear weapons for a start), so you cannot compare the two and draw the same conclusions. Seems pretty obvious to me that the solution does not lie in more military escalation, and IMO the 1930s appeasement comparisons are leading us ever closer to disaster.

PS. I see BBC are going to broadcast Threads again in October (only the 4th time it has done so in 40 years). Some people on this thread could do with watching it. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/sep/15/threads-nuclear-apocalypse-bbc-tv-drama-40-years-on-mick-jackson-interview

Anyone who suggests de-escalation or negotiations is dismissed and insulted as an appeaser.

Can you provide one example on this thread where someone has been told that just for suggesting negotiations? One?

This war, as all others will end with negotiations.  It’s inevitable. I want Ukraine to negotiate from as much a position of strength as possible, so Putin isn’t encouraged to rinse and repeat in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland etc.

I see BBC are going to broadcast Threads again in October (only the 4th time it has done so in 40 years). Some people on this thread could do with watching it

I saw Threads first time around, I don’t need to watch it again. I spent a significant part of the early 1980s on exercise next to the inner German border in full NBC rig, in a water filled slit trench, learning to estimate the distance and yield of tactical nuclear strikes we fully expected to come.  I had no illusions about my survival if it happened and at the time it felt very much like ‘when’, not ‘if’.  I’m in no hurry to see a return to those days. IMO emboldening Putin and encouraging his imperial dreams is the fastest way to make that happen.

Can you provide one example on this thread where someone has been told that just for suggesting negotiations? One?

I’ve had that thrown at me many times on this thread, along with a few others who dared to stick their heads above the parapet. It’s the reason I stopped posting a long time ago.

I’d still be interested to see a link to an actual example. In any case, don’t stop posting. Your views are as valid as anyone else’s.

I suppose what I’m talking about is the clamour on here for more fighting, more bombs, more missiles etc being dropped on Russia. That’s only going to go in one direction

I suppose that’s why the thread exists; to make the point that this war won’t end suddenly (on either side) in a single event. Those sorts of strategic victories haven’t existed since kings rode into battle and some bloke called Richard III died in a field.

The only solution to this geopolitical cluster**** is negotiations, and no one – especially on this thread – seems interested in doing that. Anyone who suggests de-escalation or negotiations is dismissed and insulted as an appeaser.

The war is in my view at a tipping point where both sides can be convinced to take part in meaningful negotiation. At the moment Russia rarely acknowledges that it’s at war with Ukraine, it’s all about NATO. Until that situation changes and Russia is prepared to talk to Ukraine then you’re whistling in the wind and de-escalation on one side will lead to further escalation on the other.

This is not the 1930s, there is a huge difference between this situation and that one (the involvement of nuclear weapons for a start), so you cannot compare the two and draw the same conclusions. Seems pretty obvious to me that the solution does not lie in more military escalation, and IMO the 1930s appeasement comparisons are leading us ever closer to disaster.

A better parallel is WW2. Germany’s industrial war machine peaked in 1944, despite the Allies bombing the heck out of the German war machine, including well-known raids such as the “dam-busters” in 1943.

What this 1944 industrial peak doesn’t tell you is what would have happened without the bombing. Would the annual industrial peaks until 1944 have been greater, would there have been an even greater peak in 1945 and beyond? How long would WW2 have continued?

We’ll never know, but against the simple logic of an industrial peak, the war in Europe ended in May 1945. A few weeks after that a nuclear weapon ended the war with Japan.

Clearly, it wasn’t just about industry. Despite peaking, industry couldn’t supply the frontline sufficiently to make up for the losses there, which is the tipping point in Ukraine that I’m thinking about.

De-escalation for the sovereign nation of Ukraine to maintain its internationally agreed borders is the wrong thing now and won’t bring this war to an early conclusion in negotiation

The only solution to this geopolitical cluster**** is negotiations,

Surely that presupposes that any negotiation that Putin takes part in, he does so with either honest or peaceful intentions? Honestly I can’t see that anyone now in Ukraine would engage with the Russian state with any hope of that. To my mind this war will only stop when Putin is forced to the table because his position at homes relies on a settlement and Russia can be prevented from being a threat to it’s immediate westerly neighbours in the future (like a normal country), which certainly isn’t the case now.

..

To my mind this war will only stop when Putin is forced to the table because his position at homes relies on a settlement

And do we think lobbing NATO long range missiles at Moscow makes that more or less likely? We all know how populations react when they are attacked, they circle the wagons, beat the drum of patriotism and demand revenge. I think this is probably true of Russians more than anyone else. Attacking Moscow with missiles will strengthen Putin not weaken him.

Out of range of the current munitions supplied to ukaf.

The loss of life must be accelerating the demographic time bomb for Russia. Loosing around 1000 men a week of the age group you need the most willing surely have huge knock on effect over the next generation