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Ukraine
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2kimbersFull Member
Not the most reliable of sources tbh
? BREAKING: US Secretary of State Blinken & UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy will travel to Kyiv to inform Ukraine that restrictions on use of long-range missiles against Russian territory will be lifted. — House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul in Axios interview https://t.co/WSsSDm0uXW pic.twitter.com/CJzJ5pAKKK
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) September 10, 2024
1sobrietyFree MemberIt’s also worth noting that hitting Moscow airports could be the Ukrainians trying to force Russia to move air defense equipment to those locations, away from protecting sites of higher materiel value to Ukraine to protect sites that are of political value to Putin.
2timbaFree MemberI’ve scoured my usual news sources and can’t see mention of it?
Media interview in the US with House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (Rep)
He says that he’s repeating a conversation with Antony Blinken, who is currently in the UK and later in Ukraine and then Poland
Antony Blinken hasn’t mentioned it; I’ll believe it when I see it, massive security breach if true
X with others ^^
mattyfezFull MemberLink?
I quite admire Lammy, he’s said some things in the past that I don’t nesessarily get behind, but also a lot that I can. One things for sure, I think he’s very sincere and belives in what he says, and that counts for a lot.
blokeuptheroadFull MemberThanks all, a bit speculative atm then. Hopefully that speculation is proved accurate when Blinken and Lammy meet Zelensky.
alpinFree MemberHowever there are also reports of residential blocks being hit which is not so good.
Quite a few videos from different perspectives on reddit forums of something hitting into what look like residential tower blocks.
Stray drone? Intentional?
No idea.
blokeuptheroadFull MemberProbably prevented from hitting its intended target by a GPS jammer or other piece of ECM equipment, but unfortunately when you do that, you have no control over where the disabled drone lands.
mattyfezFull MemberStray drone? Intentional?
No idea.
Fog of war, innit.
We know russia have been systematically hitting civilain targets in Ukraine on multitudes of occasions… the capital city for a start, so even if it was true, it couldn’t really considered to be an issue.
Ukraine are fighting with both hands tied behind thier backs, whilst russia gets to do what ever it wants? NAhh…not any more..
4alpinFree MemberTBH, at this point I couldn’t care less if half of Moscow burns due to a stray drone or missile.
1blokeuptheroadFull MemberInteresting X thread on Ukrainian innovations with the tactical use of drones. Some really clever stuff.
https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1833585894202479096?t=Gg0eK6QWGpnoz3ScjDATcw&s=09
dakuanFree Memberlooks like those rumours about long range missiles being allowed has reached the bigger news channels. the rumours seem to be more about the uk/french storm shadow that ukraines already been using alot.
Read this the other week, giving some suggestions about why the US is getting a vote on how a uk/french missile gets to be be used: https://archive.is/xQRWH
(tldr; this guy says that in order to be effective storm shadow needs to be sent with a few other missiles and things as decoys as storm shadow itself can be intercepted. the other stuff that goes with it is US made.)
slowoldmanFull MemberAntony Blinken hasn’t mentioned it; I’ll believe it when I see it, massive security breach if true
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy have arrived in Kyiv
kimbersFull MemberSounds like Russian counteroffensive in Kursk has been quite succesful & costly for Ukranians
lifting those weapons restrictions could be very helpful right about now
dakuanFree Member^^ reports about that https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kursk-counteroffensive-ukraine-1951986
timbaFree MemberIt’s looking more likely that restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow will be removed. US will possibly follow suit, announcement expected tomorrow
timbaFree MemberSounds like Russian counteroffensive in Kursk has been quite succesful & costly for Ukranians
lifting those weapons restrictions could be very helpful right about now
Michael Weiss has a good analysis of the situation in Kursk on TwitterX. Bottom line is a bit more hopeful than media might suggest
1blokeuptheroadFull MemberMichael Weiss has a good analysis of the situation in Kursk on TwitterX.
This one?
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1834265541512470794?t=UC3aHhMcdPEt4scW0tsf5g&s=19
DT78Free Memberwatched on tv a very interesting documentry on the english volunteer, Chris, who was evacuating civilains in ukraine last night. well worth a watch. rip.
Kryton57Full MemberI’m not a political expert, but please, now with a new threat of bringing in the Chinese / war vs NATO, and the increasing death count, surely there’s some sort of Special Forces that can get rid of Putin and his chronies?
I know it’s not as simple as that but wanted to shout it at my iPad due to lack of any other intelligent output I can’t provide.
3andrewhFree MemberRussia is expelling some British diplomats, which the media are linking to the Starman/Biden meeting later today to discuss which weapons can be used inside Russia.
If that’s the level of response we get we’ll be fine
1J-RFull MemberMichael Weiss has a good analysis of the situation in Kursk on TwitterX.
For those of us who don’t have an account with mad Musk for access to his X cesspit, what are the main points in the analysis?
rickmeisterFull MemberExtract from Steve Rosenberg in Russia:
“He (putin) claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require data from Western satellites and that only servicemen from Nato member states would be able to “input flight missions into these missile systems”.
How much of this is accurate? Maybe someone (BUTR..) could say how close this is to the real situation or not… The Ukranians have shown themselves to be fast on the uptake .
1matt_outandaboutFree MemberReading this morning that the use of the weapons in Russia has never been an issue.
The issue has been to use them properly they require integration with NATO targeting and electronic warfare capabilities, which effectively means that NATO would have a direct involvement ‘on the ground’*. This then is big debate.
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*yes, I know from Rivet Joint, satellites and etc, but still.blokeuptheroadFull MemberMaybe someone (BUTR..) could say how close this is to the real situation or not
My knowledge is way too dated to talk specifically about the newer systems under discussion but I think Matt’s post below yours probably answers it pretty well. I suspect it is unlikely that any outside help would be needed* on the ground, once trained for the Ukrainians to input targeting info and launch. It’s the provision of that targeting information and coordination of other assets that would need NATO help.
*that’s not to say there wouldn’t be “observers” in the background
dakuanFree MemberOSINT accounts on twitter don’t seem to have much trouble buying up to date (almost hourly) satellite images of airfields with planes and choppers etc all parked out neatly.
4blokeuptheroadFull MemberOSINT accounts on twitter don’t seem to have much trouble buying up to date (almost hourly) satellite images of airfields with planes and choppers etc all parked out neatly.
Accurate targeting is a little more complex than just looking at commercially available satellite images. The Russians have previously made use of plywood decoy aircraft, SAAM systems etc. They also have a lot of aircraft in mothballs or disrepair – targeting those rather than operational kit would be a waste of scarce precision munitions. The Russians will also be dispersing and disguising some of their more effective/vulnerable equipment and C&C personnel. More capable military satellite systems with higher resolution, thermal imagery etc. and the resources to properly interpret them is needed. Backed up by SIGINT, HUMINT etc. to know where to look in the first place.
4timbaFree Member“He (putin) claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require data from Western satellites and that only servicemen from Nato member states would be able to “input flight missions into these missile systems”.
Thanks to the debacle involving German senior officers and a recording released publicly by Russia on 1st March, this is implied and on public record.
In the recording officers discussed UK and US personnel in Ukraine helping targeting decisions, “When it comes to mission planning, I know how the English do it,” the German commander tells his subordinates on the call. As well as working with advisers back home, the British* “also have a few people on the ground, they do that, the French don’t”
and “A week ago, Scholz himself referred to the presence of British troops in Ukraine helping with “target control” and said he could not accept similar for Germany whether inside or outside the country because he felt it risked making Berlin a “participant in the war” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/04/what-are-the-implications-of-russias-apparent-interception-of-military-talks-on-ukraine *my note– Storm Shadow (UK) and SCALP-EG (France) are essentially the same.
The issue has been to use them properly they require integration with NATO targeting and electronic warfare capabilities, which effectively means that NATO would have a direct involvement ‘on the ground’*. This then is big debate.
I don’t know enough about this, but my thought is that the larger NATO countries all have their own systems. Russia likes to conflate independent actions as “NATO” because it suits their narrative, but the systems are no more “NATO” than a UK made weapon system that meets NATO standards and is donated to Ukraine. I could be massively wrong, so please correct that if needed.
A further thought on long-range weapons: If their use is authorised for anywhere within range by an agreement involving the US, then surely the US is equally complicit in their use; they might as well follow up by authorising the use of US weapons as well.
I wonder if the “leak” by Michael McCaul ^^ is actually a step in escalation. The leak yesterday to the Guardian (also ^^) and the Times is similar. The US announced ATACMS prematurely in September 2023 and I wouldn’t have expected to see it repeated so soon
2rickmeisterFull Member…and all the time putin is drawing red lines, they are sourcing arms from elsewhere themselves. They just love playing the victim.
matt_outandaboutFree MemberI wonder if the “leak” by Michael McCaul ^^ is actually a step in escalation. The leak yesterday to the Guardian (also ^^) and the Times is similar.
Indeed I thought that.
Games are being played in the background.I note that the Russians have taken back one village in Kursk, in an area which Ukraine did not have full control over or indeed many forces in at all.
Meanwhile Ukraine started another cross border attack and took about 5x the land the Russians took back.2zippykonaFull MemberMaybe they should ok NATO bombs once the first Iranian missile lands on Ukraine.
piemonsterFree MemberPartly related as it is part of the information war, the US against Russia as well as Russia against Ukrainian support. The US, reported as “the Biden administration” are to release RT being integrated with the Russian Intelligence community, it says Friday so could be later today.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/13/politics/biden-administration-rt-russian-intelligence/index.html
1DT78Free MemberI suspect the first we will know restrictions have been lifted 100% is when an airfield gets blown up.
And the irony of Russia using NK and Iranian missiles to strike Ukraine….
matt_outandaboutFree MemberI suspect the first we will know restrictions have been lifted 100% is when an airfield gets blown up.
I think I would prefer a line of smoking wrecks of planes. Harder to replace than concrete.
Fingers crossed.
1dyna-tiFull MemberThe first German attack on London possibly occurred by accident(may not actually be true, though thats how some see it).. But we see how that then developed from a tit-for-tat reprisals to full scale carpet bombing of entire cities on both sides.
So what happens if Ukraine launches into Russia, which causes mass casualties, and Russia then decides to stop hitting infrastructure and concentrate on wiping out Ukrainian families en masse.
This mass drive and need on here for escalation is disturbing.
timbaFree MemberI think I would prefer a line of smoking wrecks of planes. Harder to replace than concrete.
That’s already unlikely… https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-russian-aircraft-out-ukraine-atacms-range-1949214
2timbaFree MemberSo what happens if Ukraine launches into Russia, which causes mass casualties, and Russia then decides to stop hitting infrastructure and concentrate on wiping out Ukrainian families en masse.
They’re already engaged in missile strikes on civilian property. One example from last week, Yaroslav Bazylevych lost his wife and three daughters, 21, 18 and 7 years. https://metro.co.uk/2024/09/07/ukrainian-man-loses-wife-three-daughters-horrific-russian-missile-strike-21565629/
This mass drive and need on here for escalation is disturbing.
Russia is ahead on escalation and has been using missile strikes and bombing into Ukraine for almost three years.
The difference is that Russia has been acting outside international law from the start in 2014, which includes the Geneva Convention, UN sanctions on Iranian and N.Korean weapons, etc. Ukraine is far more law-abiding.
It doesn’t make it “right”, but Ukraine’s ability to strike targets in Russia might bring an end to the madness that is this war
1mattyfezFull MemberRussia then decides to stop hitting infrastructure and concentrate on wiping out Ukrainian families en masse.
It seems Russia has been quite happily hitting civillian targets just as much as millitary ones… It wouldn’t be much of a step change, IMO.
matt_outandaboutFree MemberThat’s already unlikely…
But what that does mean is that it’s harder work for the Russians to use them.
I also suspect this is why there is a Ukrainian focus on longer range drones.
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