Ukraine

The irony is that Ukraine was not a candidate for NATO membership and Finland and Sweden had no interest in joining until Russia invaded Ukraine. Following the invasion, Finland and Sweden joined NATO and Russia’s response was just to bluster about it and then to withdraw troops from the north (i.e. where NATO now borders Russia) to send them to fight in Ukraine (which isn’t in NATO). So Putin’s ramblings about NATO are just nonsense to justify trying to expand the Russian empire

100% this , youve got to be pretty naive to think that all of this isnt about Russian expansionism, the NATO bogeyman was a useful excuse for Putin to justify his aggression, but he has long since given up the pretense that his invasion of Ukraine is anything other than a land grab.

And yes fear of upsetting Russia meant Ukraine was never going to join NATO and extra ironic that the invasion has actually made Finland & Sweden sign up

Whats hilarious is that so many pushing this ‘its all NATOs fault narrative’ are suddenly pretending to be shocked that theyve been funded by Russia all along

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/09/tenet-media-indictment/679743/

The Media show had an interview with the Times journalist who was able to travel with Ukranian troops in to Kursk, she spoke to several Russians in Kursk and many had no idea of the extent on what was happening in Ukraine and were disbelieving when they learned of things like the massacre at Bucha   when Ukranian troops had been nothing like that when they took Kursk villages

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0022kwr from about 49mins

The Media show had an interview with the Times journalist who was able to travel with Ukranian troops in to Kursk, she spoke to several Russians in Kursk and many had no idea of the extent on what was happening in Ukraine and were disbelieving when they learned of things like the massacre at Bucha when Ukranian troops had been nothing like that when they took Kursk villages

But we knew this is the case already. It has been since 2014 for this conflict.

A moot point in the light of comments above, but the link to the NATO page on Ukraine (also posted above) is a bit light on detail…

“From 2010 to 2014, Ukraine pursued a non-alignment policy, which it terminated in response to Russia’s aggression”

The longer version is, “Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovich, a strong candidate for president, said he would keep the country out of NATO if he wins the January 17 election but said he remained committed to taking it into the European mainstream…” “…Ukraine, quite simply, has been and will be a state outside any blocs … We will not aspire to enter either NATO or the ODKB,” he said, referring to the Russian-dominated Collective Security Pact that brings together some ex-Soviet allies.” https://www.reuters.com/article/world/yanukovich-vows-to-keep-ukraine-out-of-nato-idUSTRE6062P3/

Viktor Yanukovich was duly elected President and that “neutrality” was passed into law by Ukraine’s parliament, although co-operation with alliances on all sides was continued.

President Yanukovich later rowed back on his promise (and parliament’s democratic decision) to take Ukraine into the European mainstream, leading to the Maidan Uprising of 2013-14

Back in 1990 I worked with a bunch of expat Poles / Ukranians.  They said then Russia would never let Ukraine be free of the russian sphere of influence.

an awful lot of history in the area and a lot of borders have moved around a lot over the centuries.  Those eastern regions and Crimea only became part of Ukraine in the mid 50s IIRC?

I have always found it odd that the settlement of borders became frozen after WW2 leaving a lot of oddities.  Poland moved hundreds of miles west gaining territory from Germany and losing it to Belarus and Ukraine in the east

This does not mean I am in any way sympathetic to the Russian invasion just pointing out that the geopolitics are complex in the region

A short history of Russia by Mark Galeotti is a good primer on all that historic messyness. He’s also well worth following for a far more nuanced perspective on whats going on from a lot of the regular press.

However the ‘Donbas + Crimea was always Russian until recently (aka Khrushev’s Mistake)’ narrative is a long running piece of russian propaganda. One thats got a lot of traction since 2022 (must be true, most people there speak Russian!) most notably Elon Musk repeating it almost verbatim. It’s more dissapointing seeing avowed anti colonialists fall for it given it’s the oldest colonisation play in the book. Invade, depopulate, de-culture, repopulate,  re-culture – boom, colony never existed, it was always part of $INVADER.

And yeah, there’s a lot of prerty wacky borders in Europe post ww2, my favourite being in Netherlands / Belgium. Most of the point of the EU and the general post WW2 settlement was realising that Europe’s entire history has been wars of conquest (theres a really good animation of european borders moving over the past 1000 years or so, i can’t vouch for its accuracy but the overall gist of  ‘these things have moved ALOT’ holds true). The advent of industrial warfare made that unsustainable, so everyone agreed that it needed to stop somewhere, sometime, and that might as well be here and now. And it didnt really matter all that much where the borders were as EU membership smooshed out the effects of them. Closest to home in NI.

speaking of WW2 borders, china has unfinished business too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm923e0-RtA

In 1954, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union transferred the Crimean Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. The territory had been recognized within the Soviet Union as having “close ties” to the Ukrainian SSR, and the transfer commemorated the Union of Russia and Ukraine Tercentenary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Union

There has never been an independent ukraine with anything like its current borders until the collapse of the USSR.  This is a part of the issue for me.  At what point in time do you say ” these are now our immutable borders”

Just to say again – this is not a defense of the Russian invasion

I stand corrected on Donbas 🙂

There has never been an independent $COUNTRY with anything like its current borders until the $20TH_CENTURY_EVENT.

This is true of most of east/central Europe (and bits of western europe for that matter.

At what point in time ‘these are now our iummutable borders’.

Happened after WW2 and the collapse of the soviet union.

Young men desensitised to violence and packed full of hate for their opponents.

I’m going to pick this up; that is a sweeping generalisation and does a huge disservice to the majority of disciplined and professional soldiers that serve within the ranks of a multitude of armed forces in nations that follow the rule of law.

Especially when you said the British Army, some of the best humans I know gave their lives in service of something bigger than themselves and bullshit like that makes me livid.

It’s not a war movie with a bunch of **** idiots running about the place ready at a moments notice to make a necklace of ears.

I don’t know if you decided to deliberately stoke that fire from your place of deep, deep ignorance. I suspect you did as you have firm but I’d encourage you not to do it again.

RM – I have huge respect for you and your service however atrocities happen in all armies including the british one.

Somewhat of a digression tho

There’s a big difference between low-level indiscipline, which will happen in any army, and a deliberate strategy of brutalizing civilians and prisoners-of-war.

On top of that, it is possible for countries and their militaries to change and adopt better practices. Germany and Japan in WW2 were among some of the most brutal militaries in history. Today they are completely different countries. Russia does not seem to have learned those lessons.

There’s a big difference between low-level indiscipline, which will happen in any army, and a deliberate strategy of brutalizing civilians and prisoners-of-war.

Where does Abu Graib fit in with your classification?

Germany and Japan in WW2 were among some of the most brutal militaries in history. Today they are completely different countries.

Although to be fair, unlike Russia neither Germany nor Japan have done any war fighting since WW2, so how would we know?

I’m being a little facetious, they have changed immeasurably. I’ve worked with the Bundeswehr and they were very professional, making allowances for the fact they were mostly a conscript force at the time.

Abu Graib was a classic case of poor leadership allowing disciplinary problems to get out of hand. The CIA waterboarding was a classic case of civilian leadership doing dumb things (it was based on a lawyer trying to find loopholes to claim that waterboarding wasn’t torture.) Poor civilian leadership at the top sending the wrong message, badly trained reservists at the bottom losing discipline.

Poor civilian leadership at the top sending the wrong message, badly trained reservists at the bottom losing discipline.

So that’s ok then. Not actually brutalising prisoners at all.

Guys – I am sorry I brought up this conversation.  Perhaps better left?

apologies again RM for introducing this.

So that’s ok then.

Did anybody say it was ok?

theres a really good animation of european borders moving over the past 1000 years

It’s amazing how stable Britain has been compared to almost everywhere else.

It’s amazing how stable Britain has been compared to almost everywhere else.

Breeding, old chap.

Or floating  in a big salty lake…….??

Being an island helps.

Have we done the Ukrainian drone attack on international airport in Moscow overnight? I am intrigued to see / understand what the aim of this is.

It’s amazing how stable Britain has been compared to almost everywhere else.

Yes, if you ignore Scotland and Ireland then ‘Britain’ has been very stable for the last 1000 years.

Britain is just england and wales

Great britain includes Scotland and the scottish islands

United kingdom includes NI and some of the other islands ( but not all of them)

🙂

did you watch the video Bruce?

Have we done the Ukrainian drone attack on international airport in Moscow overnight? I am intrigued to see / understand what the aim of this is.

That had passed me by. Just had a read about it, thanks for the heads up. It seems more than 1 of Moscow’s 4 airports were hit, maybe even all of them? Although the reporting is very confused. All flights in and out of Moscow were stopped for a while. One report said military transport aircraft were targeted, which would be legit. However there are also reports of residential blocks being hit which is not so good. Though impossible to know if they were targeted (hopefully not) or hit by falling debris from drones downed by AD units?

My guess is that the attacks on Moscow airports are more about morale than actual military usefulness.  Show the Russian people that they too are not immune from the war and to make them fearful / oppose the war and to boost the morale of the Ukrainians?  Just my guess

A fair guess too. Putin has boasted how safe Moscow is many times. So many drones getting through, shows how weak the city’s air defences are. If the regime can’t protect the capital from balsa wood planes with 2 stroke moped engines, its a major embarrassment for the Kremlin.

Show the Russian people that they too are not immune from the war and to make them fearful / oppose the war and to boost the morale of the Ukrainians?

More than likely do the opposite and feed a drive for more people to join up. Patriotism being what it is.

Moscovites don’t volunteer to fight at the front lines. They leave the dying for Putin stuff to conscripts from the colonies.

More than likely do the opposite and feed a drive for more people to join up. Patriotism being what it is.

I tend to agree if (big if) it’s just targeting Moscow per se. Aerial bombardment of cities usually just steels the resolve of those on the receiving end. However if they are attacking military aircraft or facilities adjacent to the airports, then that’s different.

I think the recruitment strategy has changed recently- signing on bonus, pay massively increased and sizeable payment to family if you are KIA.

did you watch the video Bruce?

I did.  tbf, it did seem very stable between around 1707 and 1921.

But then for most of that period so was Portugal.  In fact, Portugal’s borders changed very little from around 1250 onwards (being in a union with Spain in the 1500s and then Napoleon doing his thing being the exceptions).

Breeding, old chap

The word “in” maybe should feature there

sizeable payment to family if you are KIA.

Lada with metallic paint promised but not actually delivered?

This popped up in my feed yesterday. https://youtu.be/s4mFH6PNwsk?si=q0w3Ix2o7TcRfLrr . Quite interesting re (some of) the discussion above – it’s an interview with a recently contracted and then captured Russian soldier (they claim all OK re the Geneva Convention but I digress). Confirms that they’re being promised what he seems to think is good money, but he hasn’t seen much of that promised. Neither did they keep their promise that he would be a driver, but sent him to the front line with minimal training. Says most of the soldiers are old 40s..50s. ie us. Most interestingly with the discussion re Putin above he says he voted for the first time recently….for Putin. Fears a return to the chaos of the 90s so he wants Putin to stay regardless. That said, he also wants to stay a Ukranian PoW for the time being as he thinks he’ll just get sent back to the front with a Russian machine gun at his back if he’s exchanged.

Seems like David Lammy has finally convinced Americans to allow Ukraine to use US weapons in Russia

Especially important in light of new Iranian deliveries of ballistic missiles to Russia

Link?

Seems like David Lammy has finally convinced Americans to allow Ukraine to use US weapons in Russia

Especially important in light of new Iranian deliveries of ballistic missiles to Russia

This is very significant if true.  I’ve scoured my usual news sources and can’t see mention of it?