No satellite imagery of the Chongar bridge yet?

Seen clips, geolocated 1.6km from the airbase…. All the blocks of flats have shattered windows.

Hard to imagine that much of the equipment on the base managed to survive unscathed.

Quite enjoyed the videos of the Russian girls in tears because they have to leave the Crimea and the other one who had their reservation at a hotel in Vienna cancelled after she videoed herself abusing Ukrainians.

If it was a missile strike, why are the Ukrainians denying it?

Dunno, maybe theyve intelligence telling them the Russians dont know for sure what and where from, and are happy to leave them that not knowing?

If it was a missile strike, why are the Ukrainians denying it?

Misinformation and spreads distrust within Crimea.

Good move.

^That’s gotta make Putin think twice, not only has the invasion all but ground to a halt, but it looks like Ukraine is going to take Crimea back.

If they can do that in Crimea, the russians have to be thinking they have the capability to do it elsewhere.

I suppose what is Russia going to do, escalate by going WWIII or retreat?

Ukraine and wider Europe are not going to back down, it’s just not an option, Russia are the agressors here.

Seen clips, geolocated 1.6km from the airbase…. All the blocks of flats have shattered windows.

That can’t be just ONE missile, that’s definitely a case of multiple missiles landing with precision.

Ukraine’s air force said Wednesday that nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in a deadly string of explosions at an air base in Crimea.

Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in Tuesday’s blasts — or that any attack took place. https://t.co/8qpPT2Nxsc

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 10, 2022

It never happened, move along now nothing to see

Yeah, there looks to be several surgical/precision hits, and not small either…”20 meter craters”.

I won’t pretend to know what did that, but I’m guessing the Russians didn’t take out thier own airbase.

Missiles presumably.
However, if those anti radar missiles are making the Russians keep their radars switched off would the Ukrainian airforce still be able to launch airstrikes on targets like that, undetected until it’s too late?

Rubber armour, huh.

https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1557408885186650112

Well if twitter is to be believed the crimea Bridge is effective out of bounds as a target as its now jammed with loads of tourists trying to leave. hitting it would mean alot of innocents dead.

probably suits Russia, wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit once they disperse given they have been targeting other bridges

Rubber armour, huh.

Its a thing and allegedly reasonably effective.

NERA Non Explosive Reactive Armour

Its a thing and allegedly reasonably effective.

NERA Non Explosive Reactive Armour

That is quite amazing, but I gather that the captured tank was expected to have ERA, not rubber.

Well if twitter is to be believed the crimea Bridge is effective out of bounds as a target as its now jammed with loads of tourists trying to leave. hitting it would mean alot of innocents dead

There’d be no advantage to targetting it. A jammed up bridge can’t be used by the military and you’ve got thousands of people to spread witnessed accounts back in the motherland EDIT of the attack/Crimea is in range

It never happened, move along now nothing to see

Deny it with thousands of tourists returning in a panic

Misinformation and spreads distrust within Crimea.

This. Russian forces don’t know which way to face and who to trust
The US has said that it’s fine to hit Crimea with their missiles, Russia might not share that view on what has been “Russia” for the last seven years
I’m happier with the UKR understanding of the Russian mindset rather than the US understanding

In other news the G7 has asked Russia to hand the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant back to UKR. That won’t happen voluntarily, the Russians are using it as a base and have launched missile strikes from there so that UKR daren’t strike back

The US has said that it’s fine to hit Crimea with their missiles, Russia might not share that view on what has been “Russia” for the last seven years

The Ukrainians are being clever about the operation. They stated that it was done using Ukrainian made weapons, but there are other claims that it was a special forces operation. One plausible line of speculation is that the U.S. reported sending more missiles for the HIMARS launchers without specifying which missiles – the longest range missiles would easily reach anywhere in Crimea and they haven’t denied sending those. However, other people who seem to know what they’re talking about have looked at the size of the craters and claimed that they are too big for the warhead of any HIMARS launched missile. That points to it being a new Ukrainian developed short-range ballistic missile. The theory is that the U.S. supplied anti-radiation missiles were used to knock out the Russian radars and then Ukrainian built missiles used for the airbase attack. All this uncertainty about how it was done keeps the Russians mentally off balance, they know that Ukraine can hit them far behind the front lines, but they aren’t sure exactly how.

The S-400 battery down the road didn’t do much

…they know that Ukraine can hit them far behind the front lines, but they aren’t sure exactly how

I’d think that the Russians will have a pretty good idea by now.
Russia was the second-largest arms exporter in the world and accounted for 20% of the arms trade https://www.defenceweb.co.za/daily-news/international-news/russian-officials-tout-arms-exports-despite-sanctions/
Their arms trade is dropping off a cliff because they have to keep their forces supplied, which means less capacity for export. They also can’t get the components for weapons that more sophisticated buyers will want
If they confess to any kind of air attack, whether by drone, missile or aircraft then they’ve just trashed any hope of selling air defence radar and missile systems in the future
The US was already after their market share (see the link above) and has had it drop into their lap
Belarus has just upgraded their own T72B tanks, presumably after their 2019 agreement with Russia fell apart

And a lot of the casualties will be technical personnel who require intensive training and will be impossible to replace quickly. Every Russian airforce ground crew member will be doing everything they can to get a posting somewhere 1000 km away from Ukraine.

Yesterday the Russians said “1 died, 9 injured, 1 plane damaged.” Anyone seeing those blasts & knowing the effects would have replied: “that’s BS, unless there was no one within 1000 yds of that airfield & all the planes had left.” At least that’s what I said yesterday. https://t.co/TpxDwjGgv8

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) August 10, 2022

Russia is struggling to replenish troop numbers in Ukraine and is now engaged in a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up for the manpower shortage. https://t.co/M6tjkMf77A

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 11, 2022

Only Cuba and maybe Belarus recognize Crimea as independent/Russia owned.
So technically it’s Ukraine in international terms, maybe Ukraine have started a special operation to get rid of the invaiding hords.

* Without googling I cannot think of another country to see Crimea as independent

What happens when you back an angry dog into a corner?

The S-400 battery down the road didn’t do much

😉

Unique footage has emerged showing the positions of powerful Russian air defense in Crimea. You don’t have to worry about the Crimean bridge. from ukraine

*no idea if its genuine

What happens when you back an angry dog into a corner?

Ask Russia, theyre in the process of finding out.

The latest satellite images of the Russian airbase in Crimea. A massive amount of damage, many aircraft completely destroyed, others may have suffered damage that isn’t visible from space.
The Ukrainians were developing a short-range ballistic missile system launched from a truck, but nobody’s certain if it ever went into production. It’s entirely possible that they’ve quietly carried on developing and producing it, and are now putting it into action, but keeping schtum about it, for very good strategic reasons!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea

Can’t imagine many naval vessels will be comfortable tying up at Sevastopol in the immediate future. Russia’s ability to support the defence of Kherson, let alone any ambitions towards Odessa, seems to be a bit shaky right now.

That was an interesting article!

Oddly and, I am sure by complete coincidence, there are reports that a Russian-link cyber criminal group (Killnet) has targeted and gained access to Lockheed Martin, the makers of the HiMARS MLRS.

I am sure by complete coincidence

Oh absolutely, no link at all lol

My partner is involved with a NGO called Open Democracy, which promotes transparency and the fight against corrupt and autocratic regimes world wide. They are cyber attacked by the Russians on a weekly basis

@shermer75 Really? That’s interesting to me. Do they/their IR team release IOCs/info on the attackers to other interested parties? I would genuinely be interested in knowing how people are being hit by the state actors and their associates.

I would genuinely be interested in knowing how people are being hit by the state actors and their associates.

Citizen lab and EFF publish a fair amount of information on these sort of issues.

Christ, this is some grim reading.

1/ @the_ins_ru has obtained an archive of complaints made to the Russian military prosecutor's office, which provides some very interesting insights from various perspectives into the experiences of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine war. Here's a 🧵 highlighting some of them.

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 10, 2022

What happens when you back an angry dog into a corner?

https://news.sky.com/video/russian-shelling-of-ukrainian-village-12670597

https://news.sky.com/video/russian-shelling-of-ukrainian-village-12670597

So, a few bazilion Roubles of weapons thrown at what looks like a near empty and already ruined village?

(I do not make light of the casualties that may well have caused, particularly if civilians were there. It just seems amazing to throw that much at such a small space.).

I wstched a YouTube vid of a pair of Ukrainian truck based middile /rocket launchers in action

They looked like smaller Katousha type of things with maybe 16 tubes.

Maybe its these thay hit that airbase

Belarus having some spontaneous equipment fires too

⚡️Explosions reported at a Belarus airfield.

The monitoring project Belarusian Gayun reported explosions at the Ziabrauka airfield, located in Belarusian Gomel Oblast that is bordering Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast, overnight on Aug. 11.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 11, 2022