Blimey, imagine if a weapon like that got into the wrong hands!

Over @ Breaking Points @krystalball & @esaagar have footage from the deleted CBS report questioning where all the billions in aid and weapons are actually going in Ukraine. Crazy CBS was bullied by the Ukrainian gov into pulling this report. Watch here:https://t.co/IXCfVE5k5G

— Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) August 8, 2022

Ooh wonder if the US has finally supplied ATACMS for the HIMARS, would make sense if they had that they’d stipulate they only be used to hit Russian bases in the Crimea for now. I think next escalation (e.g. if the Russians **** about/threaten more stuff with the nuclear plant) is the US will permit Ukraine to strike the Crimean bridge – although that would probably risk further escalation by Russia…

Edit: Ah just read the HARM missile follow-up, I guess that makes sense to – maybe the US deem ATACMS too much of an escalation for now

There is speculation that Ukraine used anti-radar missiles for this attack. Would explain the long range.

Not in itself.
What may have happened is an airstrike taking advantage of Russian defences either running out of radars or the crews deciding sod this for a game of soldiers and forgetting how to use the on switch after a few days of being on the wrong side of harm missiles but in themselves the range isnt exceptional.
They also wouldnt tend to create huge explosions/smoke clouds unless the radars are positioned with extreme stupidity.

As I understand it, the anti-radar missiles can be launched in a GPS guided mode. I think that means they can be used as an regular air-surface missile instead of being limited to attacking radar sites.

And how does Ukraine know where to aim the AGM-88… I think there are two ways:

1) locals reporting the locations of russian air defense systems, radars, jammers, electronic warfare systems
2) US Air Force or UK Royal Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint aircraft, which are

13/n pic.twitter.com/U89dF5rj4x

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) August 8, 2022

I think that means they can be used as an regular air-surface missile instead of being limited to attacking radar sites.

They have other weapons which can be used for that though with similar or better range and hitting power. I cant imagine that many have been sent over so wouldnt have thought they would use them on anything other than radar suppression. After all if you get that right then you can use everything else at whim.

Emptying out the holiday beaches & dachas of Crimea will have an effect in Russia

Russia moved it’s naval assets from that part of Crimea a while ago, tougher to move airfields

Also worth pointing out that this is another own goal for Putin
NATO/USA had refused for years to sell Ukraine long range missiles, until now.

Emptying out the holiday beaches & dachas of Crimea will have an effect in Russia

There was a story a couple of months back suggesting a whole bunch of houses had appeared on the market.

With regards to the attack Russia are apparently implying it was an accident*. I am really not sure how that is supposed to help their cause “it wasnt the enemy. We can kill ourselves without needing their help”?

*They talk about a detonation of supplies suggesting an accident whilst skipping over the finer detail of what caused the detonation.

*They talk about a detonation of supplies suggesting an accident whilst skipping over the finer detail of what caused the detonation.

I heard it was a box of ammunition stopping a Ukrainian missile from damaging the hallowed Crimean territory.

A few big claims on Twitter about the ‘number’ of lost aircraft in that event

Satellite imagery 4hrs before the attack shows 37 jets and 6 helicopters at the base according to this video;

Airbase

Impossible to say how may aircraft were destroyed though.

I had missed the stuff about air defences being destroyed on Friday, where were they located

I see that a weapons depot almost in Crimea was hit earlier too

Hopefully will disrupt Russian response to Ukrainian efforts to retake Kherson

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556893167013748736?t=PQYtEmNNACeF6Lh1OMzeig&s=19

Air base got hit too today Russia blaming it on a fire when refueling.

Impossible to say how may aircraft were destroyed though.

Those fireballs were not small!

I’m not sure how many would escape damage of some sort, also appears to be barracks & hangers between fuel depot & ammo storage

Новофедоровка pic.twitter.com/52VES5cIQS

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) August 9, 2022

All these random accidents and deliberate defence sacrifices. It’s all a bit:

^ that there airbase is quite the double badaboom explosion, with more over time. 🤔

Meanwhile reading other things, it seems Russia’s advances are of the order of 2km in 2 weeks of fighting, one area where they’ve managed 10km. All while pouring more artillery and machines, but also reports of all the contract soldiers are quitting the moment they are rotated out for a rest.

It’s alright, Russia has increased the limit on volunteering for the army, now 65 🤣

I still find it astonishing that most of Russias ‘tech’ seems to be powered by all sorts of electronics by Sony etc. (even if Sony didn’t know). All this time, and working with China in some shape or form and they can’t produce their own (or at least order it sans globally well known branding). What did they think was going to happen when those parts dried up after the inevitable sanctions?

Conversely, next time the boffins in the US ask for billions of dollars for the next high tech stealth hypersonic thingymagig would the money makers say ‘hold on, Russia stuff is running off washing machines, do we really need to spend this money as all the stuff we have now will wipe the floor with them’? Suppose China is now the ‘enemy’ for that request…

I wouldn’t be surprised if almost all those aircraft are done for

First footage from Saki Air Base pic.twitter.com/WBoCapEdoy

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) August 9, 2022

The location of this vid circled in red

And nearby buildings were damaged too

https://twitter.com/NatalieSmal/status/1557084413686595586?t=SUs2Ea5V_UxBdxIpkYv8FA&s=19

More vids
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1557099306800365568?t=5kUi-pfocXidHYS0MgmDFA&s=19

Several more airbases on the Crimea to target!

As well as forcing Russia to abandon Crimea as the site of naval and airbases, I suspect the realization among wealthy Russians that they really are losing may be hugely important. It’s no longer just a “special operation” limited to border areas, it’s a war that Russia is losing.

The huge Russian vacationer bug out – made up mostly of Muscovites – shoots the Putin propaganda narrative in the head.

Too many Muscovites now believe their own eyes, that Russia is losing. https://t.co/jJuMNX5Kxl

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) August 9, 2022

Rats leaving the sinking ship.

⚡️Subscribers report that there is a huge traffic jam on the Kerch bridge from those who want to leave Crimea. pic.twitter.com/vMJlOK6H7J

— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 9, 2022

Very important announcement – this means that Russia can’t put any major military bases in Ukraine and has to expect the Kerch Strait Bridge might be destroyed at any time. This will make their logistics in the south much more difficult.

US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. No escalation ceiling for US weapons use for Crimean targets. As for what was used here, lots of fingers pointing…

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) August 9, 2022

Air base got hit too today Russia blaming it on a fire when refueling

I think that we can rule that out. Simultaneous explosions a (short) distance apart

Mykhailo Podolyak an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office credited it to sabotage within Crimea saying, “Of course not. What do we have to do with this?”

There is also speculation on Twitter about which missiles could have been used

It’s clear that it’s Ukrainian-inspired. The realisation that they are in range and the thought of forces friendly to Ukraine running around in Crimean backyards is frightening for the population.
It’s good tactical value because the Russians can’t concentrate their forces towards the fronline, or rig a barge full of radar reflectors.
It’s also wiped out a pile of aircraft just as UKR seems to be building for an offensive

Just as a reminder

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/medvedev-wests-refusal-recognise-crimea-russian-is-threat-2022-07-17/

In the event of an attack on Crimea, Medvedev was quoted by TASS news agency as saying, “Judgment Day will come very fast and hard. It will be very difficult to hide.”

I know its primarily the domestic audience. But, its hard to hide and cover up locally, and the response of, “oh Sergei dropped his fag on a bomb” will be increasingly difficult to pull off.

This is going to be an extreme long shot, but ill try anyway.

Does anyone have a link to analysis on post WW2 UK public opinion on Imperialism/Colonialism? Perhaps would be best around the time of Suez?

The reason that line of enquiry has been triggered is I read something yesterday, claiming to be sourced from someone with a Baltic country intelligence service. This piece was talking long term about the threats posed by Russia and how the removal of Putin wouldnt really help. This is on account of the sentiment in Russia of Imperialist ideologies/borderline fascism.

That in turn made me think of individuals, such as the (linked to an age ago) Russian leaders of neo nazi groups wearing “Russia Ultimate Power” t shirts.

Whuch in turn again made me think of what happened to public opinion during the post war decline of British territorial imperialism/colonialism.

Its surely a topic that been studied, but i definitely dont have time to read a weighty book on the matter.

Maybe look a bit wider than UK. France was going through a similar process following WW2 and the Suez canal was a joint Anglo-French company (after Egypt sold their share to Britain)
Spain’s colonies fell apart a bit earlier leading to the Spanish Civil War in 1936

Does anyone have a link to analysis on post WW2 UK public opinion on Imperialism/Colonialism?

Daniel Todman’s 2 volumes covering the war are very accessible and the second volume covers the immediate post war period (up to 1947)

Yeh will try that, Ive found stuff from a little earlier, but not so much from a time when India was already free, and the defining impact of Suez felt.

Edit, i guess the parallel Im trying to draw (badly) is;

Loss of India compared to the fall of the Soviet Union and dominion over Eastern Europe.

Suez, and the current war in Ukraine.

Theres the documented rise of the far right (NF etc) at a later time, but that seems more about flat out racism than feelings towards Imperialism.

More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car!

Airfield attack

More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car

The size of that steel beam!!

More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car!

Yes, it’s a miracle that only one person was killed in the explosions.

How did that beam get through the car like that without causing more damage?

Not a great deal I disagree with in this, dumbed down to about my level too.

Are the Russians still saying only one fatality?

Total destruction in Russian Army’s Saki Air Base, Crimea. pic.twitter.com/NhUaK6MCMI

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 9, 2022

Seems like the Russians have been careless with cigarettes again.

Today Ukrainian Forces hit near the settlement of Chongar in Kherson that borders Crimea🔥

A possible target was the bridge that is one of two crossings connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine

The launch occurred at least 160km from the frontline🇺🇦#UkraineWar #Ukraine #Crimea pic.twitter.com/liJp2BOeVj

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) August 10, 2022

How did that beam get through the car like that without causing more damage

Miracle beam, note the car park is 500m from the airfield 😵‍💫

Are the Russians still saying only one fatality?

I believe only one member of the Moskva crew has been officially confirmed as killed.
So long as there is no body then they might have popped off for a holiday and not mentioned it to anyone. As you do in the military.

@Piemonster.
Kamil Galleve and Anton Barbashin are worth reading on twitter, if anything they help westerners understand the Russian way of thinking which we have very little grasp of.

My Mrs remembers martial law in Soviet block poland and travelled all over the USSR with her parents work and a friend of mine lived/worked for a news agency in Moscow and then Riga pre the fall of communism, so i get the gist from them, they understand we (your average brit) really have no idea.

I’m not sure if it’s internet folk lore but if no deaths occur then no payout of military pension or notice to the family. Hence only one death due to a fag butt.
Or Russia is sill in the “chemical Ali” stage of grief.

Before and after sat pics of the air base. Significant loss of air frames and infrastructure.

Satellite imagery confirms massive damage at Novofedorivka airbase in Crimea. https://t.co/N9fHukBxA6

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 10, 2022

looks like very accurate missile attack on the base.