Yup. Looks as if the Belarusian air force and/or army are as careless around munitions as their Russian counterparts. You’d think they’d have managed to institute a modicum of operational discipline by now. Then again..

Would it not be cheaper for Ukraine and NATO to supply cigarettes to the Russian forces currently?
😉

I’ve finally tracked down an article I read about a possible Ukrainian ballistic missile system I mentioned a few posts back.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-have-a-stash-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles

Drones operated by Ukrainian Special Forces are being mentioned as responsible for the damage to the Crimean air base, but those can’t possibly explain the two huge explosions shown in the videos, unless they hit two ammo dumps.

It’s all very intriguing.

Would it not be cheaper for Ukraine and NATO to supply cigarettes to the Russian forces currently?

Suitably dosed with high-strength psychedelic drugs…

…just to enhance their operational performance a bit.

those can’t possibly explain the two huge explosions shown in the videos, unless they hit two ammo dumps

Drones could be an ideal device to attack ammo dumps. They will be protected from bombs and shells, but all a drone needs is an open door. Drones will only carry a small charge, so don’t do huge damage on their own, but it only needs a small charge in a place nobody expects one to set off a dump.

Iran might be providing their drones to Russia, including some that are weapons-capable
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-officials-trained-iran-part-drone-deal-says-us-state-dept-2022-08-11/
Iran has been developing drones since the mid 1980s and has advanced scientific and engineering capability. How much is hype and how capable they are remains to be seen

Drones will only carry a small charge…snip

Fifteen years ago the US dropped four GBU-49 Enhanced Paveway II 226.8kg (500lb) bombs from a Reaper drone, I don’t know what’s available to UKR now

The craters on the airbase are huge, something like 20m across, you need something really big to make them!

FP opinion piece, backed up with further reading which ive not been able to check.

Russia’s Brutal Honesty Has Destroyed the West’s Appeasers

Its paywalled if your confortable bypassing that.

The perspective is that of a Russian journalist working for Meduza.

It has no sympathy for th European left and takes a very hawkish line. Very much taking aim at what the journalist considers a reflexive “NATO is to blame” response that over rides (to varying degrees) what Russia is actually doing itself.

Everything in Yale University historian Timothy Snyder’s “genocide handbook” has already been perpetrated in one form or another, including forced Russification and the abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children to be raised as Russians in the motherland. 

I dont really know much about the suthor if anyone has any critique?

It has no sympathy for th European left and takes a very hawkish line.

This sort of thing has been going on since the 1920s, with lefties willfully disregarding Soviet atrocities because they didn’t want to believe that anything about socialism could ever be bad or that anything about capitalism could ever be good. George Orwell, who was a socialist, got a lot of criticism from the left for reporting that the Spanish communists rounded up and executed members of other anti-fascist organizations in the Spanish Civil War. Orwell had joined an anarchist group and fought the fascists, but then had to flee for his life from the communists who he had believed were his allies. (And, of course, right wingers mistake Orwell as a critic of communism, when he was a critic of totalitarianism by both the left and the right. I can only assume that the right-wingers who quote Orwell have never actually read or understood anything that he wrote.)

lefty’s didn’t want to believe that anything about socialism

They mistook communism for socialism, they are not the same. Done properly socialism will allow the (regulated) market to flourish whilst ensuring that all are provided for by that (regulated) market.

They mistook communism for socialism

Exactly the US misunderstanding. Most of the “enlightened” nations combine a reasonably healthy mix of socialism and capitalism.

Look no further than Gerard Schroeder – who’s solution to the German energy crisis is to open Nordstream 2 – self serving ****er

They mistook communism for socialism, they are not the same. Done properly socialism will allow the (regulated) market to flourish whilst ensuring that all are provided for by that (regulated) market.

Communism is a totalitarian form of socialism. The core idea of socialism is that the means of production is nationalized, not privately owned. A regulated market with private ownership of capital is a liberal idea, not a socialist one. The Americans who think they’re socialists are actually just liberals. True socialists despise liberals because the idea of private ownership of capital and a market economy is exactly what socialism is opposed to.

The problem was that Western socialists and liberals did not recognize that communists were totalitarian socialists, they heard the socialist bit of the message and willfully ignored the murderous totalitarian part because they did not want to admit that socialists could ever be on the wrong side.

Look no further than Gerard Schroeder

For a Marxist-based party that’s moved towards Socialism, the SPD seems to produce it’s share of scandal. Olaf Scholz can’t remember his meetings with the Warburg bank
https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/11/olaf-scholz-pressure-grows-on-german-chancellor-over-alleged-tax-scam-ties

I think your definition of liberal is missing a minimally before the regulated. Well regulated is more of a modern socialist approach to the market.

Communism was anything but socialist as ‘the many’ were not provided for according to their needs but granted the crumbs from the apparatchiks’ table.

The only theory of government that doesn’t appear to evolve is that of the conservative parties be it Conservative this side of the pond or Republican on the other side.

EDIT Though now we’re straying off-topic slightly.

Communism was anything but socialist

I think George Orwell covered the failings of communism pretty well. Western socialists were furious with him because communists justified their system as being socialist and western socialists believed them. Whatever the case, there was willful blindness to the horrors that the communists unleashed. Similar thing is happening now with Russia, tankies are so blindly anti-capitalism that they believe that anyone who opposes the U.S. must be one of the good guys.

This seems like good news for the Ukrainians.

Has this been confirmed? Hard to hold the West Bank of the Dniepr if the Russian troops know their leadership has fled https://t.co/ofbWfc5spP

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) August 13, 2022

If true, not great fro RA morale.

reporting that the Spanish communists

Not to derail the thread, but I’ve been reading Beevor’s “The Battle for Spain” the behaviour of the Soviet officers in charge of the International Brigades was pretty brutal. Passports handed in by volunteers were routinely stolen and sent back to Russia for use by spies in the NKVD, volunteers returning from leave was fraught with danger, they were often shot as returning deserters, even requesting leave could result in you being executed. weapons were poor and it’s largely where the use of “human wave” tactics that they used in Finland the Eastern Front and so on.

Interesting analysis of the true effects of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.  Suggests a lot of headlines saying sanctions aren’t that effective are inadvertently regurgitating Russian propaganda rather than looking at the verifiable underlying data.

Things like the rouble not tanking are misleading because it’s not  really a currency which is widely traded on international currency markets.  The Russian stock market ‘only’ reducing in value by 50% is because half the stock is held by foreign investors who are not allowed to sell their now uninvestable stock – Russian investors have all pretty much dumped it. etc, etc – loads more examples.

Good but grim article about how w effective Russian artillery has been

My latest:
“The Russian military indeed enjoys very strong numerical superiority. But Ukraine, in turn, often lacks proper organization of counter-battery activities on the battlefield. It also falls short of qualified top-level specialists.”https://t.co/qQYaJLuRdX

— Illia Ponomarenko ✙ (@IAPonomarenko) August 12, 2022

Not to derail the thread, but I’ve been reading Beevor’s “The Battle for Spain” the behaviour of the Soviet officers in charge of the International Brigades was pretty brutal.

Yep, and Western lefties refused to believe it.

One for @seosamh

If true, anyway…

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkins-detention-what-is-known/

The Gherkin “detained” (allegedly)

The link below is to an interesting piece, looking at some depth as to how a Ukrainian offensive in the South – coupled with Russia’s well documented leadership, logistical and morale issues – would almost inevitably lead to a Russian collapse in both the South and the East.

https://realcontextnews.com/how-ukraine-war-will-likely-go-rest-of-2022-or-kherson-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-russia/

Don’t know much about the website – or indeed the author – so I’m not saying this is necessarily accurate, let alone definitive, but it is certainly compelling and he does seem to know about that of which he speaks.

Happy to be debunked though!

Well this is good news!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62547403

Looks like more crap operational security protocols have cost the Russkies dear. Some reports saying Putin’s chef is amongst those killed. We can but hope..🤞

Looks like more crap operational security protocols have cost the Russkies dear

They appear not to be the sharpest pencils in the box

Ukraine hits base of Russian paramilitary group Wagner after photos revealed location https://t.co/96ZVSL9pct pic.twitter.com/8bbXxA76DZ

— New York Post (@nypost) August 15, 2022

Saw that the other day in reddit.

It does make you wonder about the IQ levels of these people….

Seems almost too stupid to me! Would be nice if it was really the Wagner HQ but I have some doubts.

Some reports saying Putin’s chef is amongst those killed. We can but hope..🤞

Unfortunately there’s pictures of him examining the rubble after the strike

Which is a shame as he seems like a piece of work

They appear not to be the sharpest pencils in the box

Doh. That’s why we’re always PED red on ops. Bunch of amateurs.

Would be nice if it was really the Wagner HQ but I have some doubts.

I wondered too.

President Putin opened Army-2022, an International Military-Technical exhibition in Moscow yesterday.
He said that Russia’s weapons are years ahead of those from other countries “and in terms of tactical and technical characteristics they are significantly superior to them.”
I think that he has an uphill sell on just now with customers concerned about performance, ongoing spares and replacement. This is possibly why the careless smoker stories abound 🙂

He said that Russia’s weapons are years ahead of those from other countries “and in terms of tactical and technical characteristics they are significantly superior to them.”

Wow.

He said that Russia’s weapons are years ahead of those from other countries

It will take decades, if its even possible at all. For anyone else to catch them in the Turret Throwing Competition.

Im not really sure how much the invasion of Ukraine will really affect Russias arms sales beyond inability to supply because of the war in Ukraine.

A significant chunk of sales are going to countries that want cheap arms for potential local conflicts or internal suppression of dissent. Possibly only really China that is planning for a direct conflict against advanced militaries.

China was one of his biggest markets at 18.2% of Russian arms exports between 2016 and 2020. India was biggest at 23.3%. I’d guess that they’ll be at the more technical end too

I think that he has an uphill sell on just now with customers concerned about performance, ongoing spares and replacement.

Ironically, the Ukrainian success using old Russian systems is the best advertisement that they are still effective with properly trained crews and decent maintenance.

properly trained crews

That’s the key part. You can have all the tech in the world but if your biological element isn’t trained, motivated & disciplined then you’re on the backfoot.

This is outside the range of the HIMARS rockets that Ukraine has officially been delivered. It’s going to make supplying Crimea and the southern front extremely difficult for Russia. Putin cannot abandon Crimea for political reasons, but defending it might be too much for Russian logistics to manage.

2/ The explosion site is reportedly located in or near the village of Mais'ke, 21km east of the major road and rail junction of Dzhankoi. The Russians have already said it's an ammunition explosion (which is clear from the videos posted by various people). pic.twitter.com/hsBsUoTqdU

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) August 16, 2022

Some “other way round” stats
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/
81% of China’s arms imports are Russian
Belarus (100% Russian in that chart) has already completed it’s own programme of T72 updates

Small print in the T72 sales contract – “Explosive Reactive Armour, may not contain actual explosive – but may be replaced with rubber, at the vendors discretion”. Always read the small print 😉

Another view of the ammo dump attack;

BOOM!

Judging by the trajectory of the rockets cooking off, I don’t know if I’d want to be that close 🤷‍♂️