UKIP, the by-elections and Labour

Well obviously ninfan you have never heard of the fact that “foreign born Londoners” are often the target of racism !!!

Really? I’m fairly sure that there are plenty of native born Londoners who have been the target of racism too funnily enough 🙁

Well since foreign born Londoners would be unaffected by that, on account that they are already Londoners, why would they not vote for UKIP ? Tell me.

Because, for example, they might not have a continued right of residence if the UK leaves the EU (like the SNP was threatening, you might remember 😉 )

Or they may not have had the right to remain here in the first pace, like a certain Brazilian electrician…

Maybe, ninfan, just maybe, foreign born Londoners see UKIP as a racist party and as people who have experienced racism want nothing to do with them. Do you think there’s a slight possibility that might be the case ?

Well, I still can’t see how they would see anything racist about them unless they were swallowing propaganda by parties who might have something to gain by painting that picture? Certainly their policies don’t seem to be bear out the allegations made against them by others, can’t think who might have something to gain from that…

I wonder if they might have bought into loudly disseminated hysteria from people who might want to conflate the issues of race and immigration to whip up fear and discord to further their own political objectives? Just maybe they’ve been the pawns of politicians who decided to use immigration as a tool of social engineering with a plan to ‘rub the right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date’?

As a nation, many of us have benefitted from travelling and working abroad – enjoying all that this entails. Some of us have worked for UK companies exporting our goods and services to overseas governments, companies and people in the process. But heaven forbid if Johnny Foreigner want to come and work here, especially if they are better and cheaper, or horror of horrors, a foreign (especially it seems the French) company coming to offer us their services.

Alarme bells ring well beyond the homes and offices of the UKIP xenophobia. It’s breathtaking. Now we have polticians of all parties arguing for protectionism in the labour market. Bloody sad and misguided.

here are some graphs to help:

If it has come to this I will just agree with you.

and in case it isn’t obvious, here is the difference between those two charts

LOL what an interesting abuse of stats.
In both elections labour gained votes and you managed to make a pretty graph with them declining.
The lib will be delighted with no change between the last election and this one – that is what the first two graphs show 🙄
What that shows me is that you used a crap graph.
Statistics and damned statistics and you should be damned for that last one.

Because, for example, they might not have a continued right of residence if the UK leaves the EU

😀 Ah, so you’ve changed your mind have you, it’s not because “UKIP want widespread reform of immigration policy” that foreign born Londoners might not vote for them, as you previously claimed, it’s now according to you because “they might not have a continued right of residence if the UK leaves the EU”.

Make your mind up ! Although with that level of contradictory statments you would make an excellent UKIP candidate ! 🙂

I still can’t see how they would see anything racist about them

Really ? Your Tory Party leader seems to think so, “closet racists” is how he described them.

Still, I guess the Tory Party leader was one of the people you had in mind when you said, quote : “loudly disseminated hysteria from people who might want to conflate the issues of race and immigration to whip up fear and discord to further their own political objectives” Yes ?

So anyway ninfan, since you don’t think that you UKIP is in the least bit racist and are all round great guys, will you also be deserting the Tories to back them ?

I’m far, far to the right of the Tory party, as you well know Ernie

Still, in case theres any doubt, heres the next leader of UKIP stating clearly that he will have no truck with racism

Good of him to save englishman rather than British when he stands for UKIP

And some think they are little englanders

I’m far, far to the right of the Tory party, as you well know Ernie

I didn’t know that. I knew that Dan Hannan was the politician who you admired the most, and he’s definitely in the Tory Party.

And to be fair today’s Tory Party is a pretty extreme right-wing party, so I thought you fitted in quite nicely.

Are you now saying that today’s Tory Party, which is the most right-wing the Tory Party has ever been, isn’t right-wing enough for you ?

Still, in case theres any doubt, heres the next leader of UKIP stating clearly that he will have no truck with racism

So that’s something he’s got in common with the former leader of the BNP Nick Griffin then.

If anyone doubts that the BNP is not racist then just look at their website, it clearly states that they’re not racist. What more proof than that could anyone want ?

Eh, whats has country of birth got to do with race?

quite a lot.

Are you now saying that today’s Tory Party, which is the most right-wing the Tory Party has ever been, isn’t right-wing enough for you ?

If that (the most RW Tory Party ever) is (even vaguely true?) why would Tory voters be leaving to support another party? That would seem very odd.

Few of us would disagree that Tory voters are odd 😉

FWIW I agree with you that it is not the most right wing it has ever been.

even vaguely true?

Would you like to give me dates when the Tory Party was possibly more right-wing than it is today ?

why would Tory voters be leaving to support another party?

I thought the answer was obvious………because they are Tory voters who want to support a party which is committed to leaving the EU, no ? You disagree ?

The lib will be delighted with no change between the last election and this one – that is what the first two graphs show

The first two chart show share of the vote in the constituencies over a number of GEs and this year’s BE. There’s a quite clear loss of vote for the Lib Dems since the GE.

In both elections labour gained votes and you managed to make a pretty graph with them declining.

The last chart demonstrates the similarity of the votes in those two constituencies from 1997 to 2010, which proves how directly comparable they are. The final datapoint then shows the change in vote between February 2014 and October 2014. Labour vote declined between February and October, I think that is pretty clear and you appeared to agree with that observation before I produced the graphs, which are simply a visualisation of the data, not a manipulation of it.

I’m sure I’ll be accused of even more manipulation with this, but here is a graph of share of the vote for all GEs and the two BEs – the GEs show average share for the two constituencies (I think I’ve proved they are close enough for this to be fairly valid), clearly for the BEs it is separated out.

Thatcher
Balfour

that [ all men are equal]was an 19th century proposition that he didn’t believe was true. He believed that it was true that in a sense all men in a particular nation were created equal, but not that a man in Central Africa was created equal to a European.

I cannot be arsed listing the rest tbh

There’s a quite clear loss of vote for the Lib Dems since the GE.

WOOSH I know this and that is why the third one is so poor. They look steady despite actual losses – they lost the same in them both hence it looks so good.
Labour increased in both but is shown as a loss.
Its a crap graph. A really crap graph.

Labour vote declined between February and October, I think that is pretty clear and you appeared to agree

You keep saying I appeared to agree ,I am not sure why. I do not and not least because the labour vote increased so I could not possibly agree it “declined”.
That is what the first two graphs show and yet somehow not the third [ which also misses out the tory and lib dem decline]. It is because it is crap/misleading. Its tries to highlight things that never happened

Clearly you’re not understanding the third graph, for which I apologise as it effectively shows two different things and I should have separated it. I’ve already produced a 4th graph which shows all the elections and demonstrates the change between Feb and Oct. Here is the third graph redone without this year’s elections, so it is now just showing the correlation between the constituencies (note the scale has changed):

Few of us would disagree that Tory voters are odd

That’s a fairly large chunk of the population that are odd then.The Tories have won half the elections since the war.
Toute nation a le gouvernement qu’elle mérite.
In French, just for UKIP 🙂

Junkyard – lazarus

Thatcher
Balfour

I’m sorry but that’s nonsense. For a start Thatcher certainly wasn’t more right-wing that the present Tory government. Just as a couple of examples, Thatcher didn’t touch the NHS, she didn’t attempt to introduce ‘the internal market’, and she was strongly opposed to the privatisation of Royal Mail. Two examples of policies more right-wing than Thatcher.

Give me examples of Thatcher policies which were more right-wing than the present government’s polices.

And secondly, a hundred years ago the Tory Party supported publicly owned and run utilities, policies to the left of the present Tory government. You simply gave an example of racism in your Balfour quote, you can actually be racist and left-wing. In fact during that period many on the left would have shared very simular views to Balfour. The left at that time were not particularly hostile to the Empire, apart from maybe Marxists, why would expect the Tories to be or see it as a left-right issue ?

I cannot be arsed listing the rest tbh

Just as well if that’s your two best examples.

you can actually be racist and left-wing.

8)

Yes that helped
So the two worst losers – the tories and the lib dems have upward trends- lucky them the future us rosy
The winner has a massive downward trend – its not good to win by election apparently
And UKIP , who had huge gains, are flat and beloe zero
yes much better
Lets stick with that one as a great visual representation of what happened
PS the tory landslide of 2005 was well demonstrated on your graph

Are you taking the mickey with graphs? you must be.
you must be.

Of course you can be left-wing and racist nick1962. Labour didn’t make racism illegal until the 1960s, and yet the Labour government of the 1940s was very left-wing.

JY’s quote refers to the British Empire, Labour didn’t really start opposing the role of the British Empire until after WW2.

EDIT : None of that doesn’t means that Labour wasn’t at the forefront of fighting racism and imperialism, which of course it was.

Give me examples of Thatcher policies which were more right-wing than the present government’s polices.

Supply side reform
Pinochet
Clause 28
South Africa and aprtheid
unions

Thatcher didn’t touch the NHS, she didn’t attempt to introduce ‘the internal market’

In 1987, an additional £101 million was provided by the government to the NHS. In 1988 the then Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, announced a review of the NHS. From this review and in 1989, two white papers Working for Patients and Caring for People were produced. These outlined the introduction of what was termed the “internal market”, which was to shape the structure and organisation of health services for most of the next decade.

many on the left would have shared very similar views to Balfour.

I do not blame Nick for being smug there considering you argued the opposite with him at some length

I am off for tonight, it is just getting silly now.

Are you taking the mickey with graphs? you must be.

No, you’re just misunderstanding them, despite me quite clearly saying what they are. My latest one doesn’t show any trends at all – as I quite clearly said, it is simply the difference in vote between the two constituencies to demonstrate correlation. I could just as well have done it the other way up – here you go if it helps at all:

My previous one shows the trend (explanation up there where I first produced it):

Supply side reform
Pinochet
Clause 28
South Africa and aprtheid
unions

You’re right, it’s getting very silly.

The present government couldn’t politically reintroduce Clause 28 even if they wanted to, that doesn’t mean they are any more left-wing, as proved by the fact that they plan to withdraw the UK from European convention on human right. Thatcher had no issues with people petitioning the European court on human rights in Strasbourg. How does that make the present Tory government more left-wing ?

The unions – the present Tory government hasn’t reversed any of Thatcher’s anti-trade union legislation and is actively talking about placing further restrictions on the right to strike, how does that make them more left-wing ?

Pinochet South Africa and apartheid, there’s no junta in power in Chile today and no Apartheid regime in South Africa today, how, ffs, does that make the present Tory government more left-wing ? Were those in power today opposed to the junta in Chile or Apartheid ? Is their foreign policy today any more left-wing ?

just getting silly now

Yep, you said it.

I can just see CMD with a copy of The Road to Serfdom by his bed!! 😉 (next to Gay Times )

And here is a government running one of the loosest fiscal policies in the developed world right now. Hollande is implementing more RW policies than CMD.

The UK population defines itself as neither strongly left or right wing – and surprise, surprise, political parties position themselves to maximise votes. You have to lose a grip on reality to suggest that there are any meaningful extremes in UK politics on either side.

Anyway, I’ve been having fun doing graphs, but did really want to address your earlier post:

To hold your own in this is good enough, for Labour, if UKIP take enough votes from the tories and Lib dems. It may not actually be necessary for a massive swing or indeed a swing, to labour as a massive swing to UKIP from tory can deliver a win. Even if some labour move to UKIP they will make it up with some lib dem protest votes to both Labour lead to labour winning. IMHO this is what happened in this seat.

That is really complacent, and I hope people in the Labour party aren’t thinking this way. You’re taking that from one vote in a very safe Labour seat, which Labour came so, so close to losing. For a start, there are plenty of seats where such changes in voting could easily result in Labour losing seats they currently hold. You don’t have to go far at all to find one; the adjoining Bury North, where % share of the vote in 2010 was:
Labour: 40.2
Tory: 35.2
LD: 17.0
UKIP: 2.9

As opposed to Heywood and Middleton:
Labour: 40.1
Tory: 27.2
LD: 22.7
UKIP: 2.6

So clearly a significantly larger Tory vote to defect to UKIP, along with a much lower LD vote to shore up the Labour vote by defecting. I won’t do the maths as you won’t believe me if I did, but given your own analysis of the way the vote moved in H&M, do you really believe UKIP couldn’t win Bury North in a BE?

Alternatively how about looking at the Clacton result, where Labour only took 36.6% of the votes they got at the GE, despite the Tories who were “destroyed” (and also had a lot of their vote taken across by a sitting candidate) getting 38.1% of their GE vote.

What’s more, as you admit it is unwise to extrapolate from a BE to a GE (certainly not without taking into account the BE factor, which by my comparison with W&SE I’ve attempted to do). All I am showing here is that UKIP can take votes from people who would otherwise have voted Labour, and that clearly it wouldn’t have taken much more swing for them to have lost a very safe seat – the exact proportions aren’t something I’d like to make any definitive comments about, yet they seem to be what you’re basing your confidence on that Labour have nothing to worry about.

Hollande is implementing more RW policies than CMD.

What on earth has that got to do with whether we have ever had a more right-wing Tory government ?
I asked you to supply me dates of when we had a Tory government more right-wing than the present Tory government. You have completely failed to do that preferring instead to rabbit on about the French President. How astonishing.

Junkyard had a go claiming that Pinochet, South Africa, and apartheid, proves that we now have a more left-wing government than under Thatcher ! I kid you not. That’s how barrel-scraping things got.

A lot, think about it overnight. I will see if you have got it in the morning.

As you repeated, things have got silly now. CMD as one of the most RW Tories!!! I can see Redwoods face now!!!

The present government couldn’t politically reintroduce Clause 28 even if they wanted to, that doesn’t mean they are any more left-wing

Look at what CMD has done with gay rights and marriage in particulat and look at what she did. Which is the most right wing? If it helps you can look at what UKIP say about gay people and see which view is closer to them, thatchers or CMD.

Ernie can I just congratulate you for getting THM and I to agree on something, a rare occasion for STW, that should let you know just how wrong you are on this point.

CMD as one of the most RW Tories!!!I can see Redwoods face now!!!

That’s just something you’ve made up, no one said anything about Cameron being more right-wing than Redwood, despite all your exclamation marks. I said : “today’s Tory Party, which is the most right-wing the Tory Party has ever been”.

You dispute that, fair enough. So I’ve asked you to provide me with dates when the Tory Party was more right-wing than it is today. You haven’t done so. You clearly can’t.

And as if the emphasis the point Junkyard had to make some absurd comment about General Pinochet which apparently proves that today the Tory Party is more left-wing than it was under Thatcher.

He also unbelievably had to go back to over a hundred years ago to give an alleged example of a more right-wing Tory Party, despite suggesting that there were so many that, quote, “I cannot be arsed listing”, and you suggesting that it wasn’t “even vaguely true”.

So come on, not even vaguely true, and too many to list – then provide me with dates when the Tory Party was more right-wing than it is today. How many hundreds of years will you be going back ?

you expect more engagment when all you do is call any answer absurd and barrel scrapping etc. Your point was hyperbole and your response is typically ernie [ but without the usual humour or insight]

FWIW and I am not sure how you missed the point but it shows how right wing she was – you know supporting apartheid for example – would you like to argue CMD would support apartheid or the Tory party currently? Actually you might but everyone else can see they would not because they are not as right wing
What next Obama is to the right of Regan?

unbelievably had to go back to over a hundred years ago to give an alleged example of a more right-wing Tory Party

Only if you discount thatcher would that be true. FWIW what I did was start with the first Tory govt of the 20 th century I merely refused to do the rest as your point was so obviously false

I think you can probably criticise my response once more before bed 😉

Ernie can I just congratulate you for getting THM and I to agree on something, a rare occasion for STW, that should let you know just how wrong you are on this point.

Yeah that’s a great put down, but it doesn’t deflect from the fact that despite your desperate attempts to think of something, which ended up with you coming out with some bollocks about Apartheid South Africa, you can’t provide me with any dates when the Tory Party was more right-wing than it is today.

It’s fine making smartarse comments about congratulations, you’ve made me and THM both think you’re wrong, and saying there’s too many examples to list. But how about actually providing some evidence instead of going back over a hundred years to one quote made by one Tory, or talking complete nonsense about the present Tory government having a more left-wing attitude towards trade unions than Thatcher?

Dear God two of STW’s most BBH (belligerent big hitters) arguing after the witching hour 😯 the very fabric of our existance may be torn asunder 😆

What next Obama is to the right of Regan?

That’s not that fanciful – the political “centre” has moved a long way right in the last thirty years.

Junkyard – lazarus

would you like to argue CMD would support apartheid or the Tory party currently?

they support Israel…

they support Israel…

Totally different vs South Africa. Israel is the leading democracy in the Middle East. It has made peace with the majority of it’s neighbours, it is fighting a terrorist organisation intent on destroying it. That’s why we support it and would do so under a Labour government also.

IMO today’s Tory party is far more moderate than those of the Thatcher era. The issues with the NHS are more severe today than they where in Thatcher’s day and the problems are worsening as medical costs are increasing at a far faster rate than inflation and especially at a far faster rate than we are raising taxes. We haven’t had to face an immigration crises like the one we now have as we didn’t have the expanded EU with freedom of movement.

Israel is the leading democracy in the Middle East.

Thats a pretty hotly contested title. 😆

Just read some of last night’s discussion.

Would you both agree with this:
Today’s Tories are less conservative, but more right wing than Fatcha’s lot.

Seems to cover all bases.

I’d say they were more devoid of ideas at the moment.

where did the UKIP votes come from?

I’d guess they’ll be a few non-voters in Labour strongholds (Cons strongholds are available too…) that don’t bother voting because Labour could nominate a donkey (some say they do that a lot…) and it would get elected. Now if UKIP get a bit more of a roll on, then they become a viable alternative – people may come out and vote if they think UKIP might get close to winning. Thats the danger to both Lab and Cons.

It has made peace with the majority of it’s neighbours, it is fighting a terrorist organisation intent on destroying it.

It’s persecuting an entire population. Which is why it will never win.

they support Israel.

Thanks any chance of answering the question?

would you like to argue CMD would support apartheid or the Tory party currently?

In the land of the blind the one eyed person is king