UKIP, the by-elections and Labour

I still don’t think you can extrapolate from a Byelection – nothing is at stake, so people feel they can make protest votes without the consequences.

A Tory ukip coalition seems likely but poison chalice for ukip?
It certainly was for the lib dems,
I can also see a lot of any labour swing to ukip dissapearing if it means voting in another Tory government !

Rockape the problem there is that if a ukip/ concoaltion couldn’t be made to work (the pro business Tory’s know EU exit is madness) then that hands labour the win, especially if a lot of con voters go ukip

What do the Tories need to do then in your analysis if the events?

the Tories are perfectly aware of the risk that UKIP poses to them. that’s why they’re splitting: half are running to the right to reclaim the nasty party crown and half are running to the left to capture the LabLibDem vote. it won’t work.

JY read what I posted and the sentence you actually quoted, the keyword is could. You can talk all you like about percentages but Labour where 617 votes from losing the seat. Wake up and smell the coffee.

Wopster – that’ll be Robert Kilroy Silk

I know people who live in Middleton, and say that the UKIP operation was pretty slick. They had loads of people out canvassing. Knocking on doors, leafleting. In force. Were the other political parties doing this? No. Because they don’t have any members. UKIP do. loads of them. And they’re enthusiastic and committed. And as for organisation….. apparently its all being looked after by a lot of the campaign managers who used to work for the Tories. So they’re seasoned, and they know what they’re doing.

And look what it got them? 39% of the vote* in a ‘Labour Stronghold’. I’m sure that Nige will be very happy for people to keep dismissing them as amateurs. They aren’t. They’re quietly becoming a serious political force

* Remember that both Labour and the Tories electoral strategy for May is to limp over the line with 35% of the vote. Hows that plan looking this morning?

he big question now, is whether the next Government will be Tory or a Tory/UKIP coalition?

Not even the tory head office expect to win it. They have been behing in the polls since 2011. Is this a fact free thread for Tory dreams?

I hope Junky is finishing off his humble pie after his post yesterday!

Not sure I get your point tbh.
I am not indulging it I am criticising the point and rejecting it – it is not a valid point he has made. the stats are there their vote increased. If a party threatened me i would expect to lose votes and especially in a by election where a protest vote is the norm
the entire thread premise is a joke not worth of being taken seriously or discussed. Its the tory who are getting murdered and mullered by the UKIP as shown by the fact labour vote share increased and the Tories lost an MP, a seat and a majority with another to follow in 2 weeks times

yes labour need to be very afraid of UKIP – that is what all this clearly shows…FACEPALM

THE LABOUR PARTY VOTE INCREASED

There is no dent. Your view, the facts and reality are at odds with each other once more.
Its pointless discussing with you when you say stuff that is factually incorrect and then just repeat it.

2014: 40.9%
2010: 40.1%
2005: 49.8%
2001: 57.7%
1997: 57.7%
1992: 52.3%
1987: 49.9%
1983: 43.3%
1979: 45.8% (Middleton and Prestwich seat)
1974Oct: 45.8%
1974Feb: 39.8%

So, go on Junky, you can carry on presenting this as something less than a nightmare, but in a pre election year, with a reigning Tory government meaning that Labour should be running at an all time high in a core Labour seat like this, this is a massacre!

the keyword is could

Anything could happen – one of your posts could be supported by facts for example.
The coffee says the labour vote held up [ everyone else collapsed]and tories are loosing seats and MP’s to UKIP
That leads me to think they are more of a problem for the Tories than Labour
I know its a crazy fact based conclusion i have reached there and I hope you can forgive me.

Tory fanboys clutching at straws to try and deflect from the hell of beating you took last night with another one to come.

Would make more sense to discuss if any more Tories will defect between now and the election than say labour need to be worried. Its the tories who are in trouble due to UKIP – that is what the facts say.

this is a massacre!

Aye holding on to seats is a massacre 😆

What colourful hyperbolic language would you use for the UKIP win/Tory defeat then ?

Genocide ?
Armageddon?

Not one of your best scribbles but I did genuinely laugh

I have to agree with ninfan: labour got barely more of the vote than when their discredited government was kicked out at the last general election. There is no way they’re getting back into office next May with this sort of performance.

Like binners, I’m a lefty disillusioned with labour, which is why I vote Green. Whilst I don’t agree with all of their policies, overall they’re closer to my aspirations than any of the other political parties.

Scarily impressive result. But scary photos on the BBC news of most involved.

Just goes to show the old adage that orally, content is only 10% of the message. On that basis, UKIP can get away with spouting garbage and no one minds. The alex salmond trick.

All three parties need to work out how to tackle this quickly.

Shapps must be feeling rather silly this morning.

Nice one Ninfan! You can’t beat a few FACTS eh? 😉

What colourful hyperbolic language would you use for the UKIP win/Tory defeat then ?

Entirely expected, sitting governments hardly ever win by-elections, and the tories lost to someone who is even more tory than Maggie Thatcher and Norman Tebbits secret love child!

In case anybody was wondering exactly what UKIP have in mind (I know this thread is supposed to be about worrying about the Labour Pains but, well, who cares? Seriously.):

Prospect

EDIT: UKIP “We want to change this country”. Margaret Thatcher: “We will change the soul of this country”.

The only vague bit of sense comes from tax policy!!

The status quo seems to be in the intensive care ward.

Are we bothered?

@ninfan – a most excellent post !

JY I will accept that for you this result wasn’t a wake up call. As I said it’s going to be an interesting 7 months, lets see what the Labour response is over the next few weeks

There’s going to be awful lot of confused tactical voting next GE, isn’t there.

AV suddenly looks more useful as a tool for letting people vote for who they want, rather than whoever is supposed to be the main challenger against a Party/MP they don’t want.

The question is… will people vote Tory to stop UKIP? I very much doubt it. They will probably vote for Labour to stop UKIP though… so Labour have far less to fear than the Tories. Maybe.

Dave must have his head in his hands this morning, reading those figures from Clacton

UKIP – 21,113 votes
Tory – 8,709 votes

Thats an absolute arse-kicking!! By anyones standards. And all the media were predicting a close contest. Shows how much they know. The Tories were all saying, only last week, that Rochester will be different, and that it’ll be a safe Tory victory. They must be absolutely bricking it now!! Mark Reckless must be feeling quietly confident

I’d imagine its panic stations this morning in the Tory whips office, as they try and figure out who’s going to jump next. If Rochester does go to UKIP next month, the floodgates could open with Tory MPs looking at defending slim majorities. I reckon Nigel will be getting a good few phone calls today asking for a quiet chat, somewhere private.

@binners – where the media predicting a close contest in Clacton ? I thought it would be a UKIP landslide. Have a look at the Fabian Society piece, it outlines 5 seats the Tories could lose, likewise there are a similar number of Labour seats at risk.

However the possibility of a ukip/ con coalition and a disastrous exit from the EU looms large, for us and the EU and that would spell a m CH worse recession than the 2008 crash caused.

It would only mean a referendum….which once the full facts became obvious would mean we would almost certainly stick with it with revised terms with Brussels.

I reckon Nigel will be getting a good few phone calls today asking for a quiet chat, somewhere private.

This.

UKIP – 21,113 votes
Tory – 8,709 votes

You have to hand it to Nige…..he’s putting his money where his mouth is!

We’ve seen protest voting in mid-term elections before, is it only me who notices that the mainstream parties ignore it. Or are a section of the voters going to take a **** them attitude at the next GE. Dave’s ‘fruitcakes and loonies’ hasn’t been forgotten. The Tory ‘Vote UKIP, get Labour’ deserves a response of that’s why you should be listening now. In Scotland Dave spoke of the electorate giving the Tories a kicking. They’ve been doing that for twenty years, why had he just noticed?

Labour are likely to lose voters to the SNP in Scotland. UKIP will split the vote in England. We live in interesting times. More protest votes in a GE will be a surprise for some: I think it’s going to happen.

Has anyone noticed what’s happening in Wales? Are PC getting more support?

Those saying that it was expected that Carswell would win therefore less of a big deal is bollocks. The Tory and Lib Dem vote collapsed in key Tory seat 8 months from a general election that is catastrophic for them.

Ninfan on your numbers you got to remember that we are in a 4 party system at the moment not 3 meaning reduced vote share for all old parties should be expected. Yet Labour increased its vote.

And all this is because the main parties are fighting over the centre and not listening to the people.

The moment when that woman who was dismissed as a Bigot by GB was a seminal point in history!

Thats an absolute arse-kicking!! By anyones standards. And all the media were predicting a close contest. Shows how much they know. The Tories were all saying, only last week, that Rochester will be different, and that it’ll be a safe Tory victory. They must be absolutely bricking it now!! Mark Reckless must be feeling quietly confident

Although not a usual election scenario as the sitting MP changed party, so he has inertia on his side. Again extrapolating this unusual situation to a GE is a bit of a leap of faith.

Don’t overestimate this. The election will ultimately be fought on the economy. Labour’s real nightmare is if the economy keeps surprising on the upside. The Tory nightmare is if the rapidly approaching European recession drags UK down with it in 2015. There will spurious arguments about wages/living costs with UK’s dreadful productivity record being swept under the carpet in the process – facts, who needs ’em? Europe will be the second issue for two reasons – the region will be in crisis again and we will be debating what role we want to play. CMD and UKIP will play their trump cards there and despite being false ones (at least the UKIP one) they will win a few tricks.

Of the three party leaders, which ones will be in place in 12 months time?

I reckon Nigel will be getting a good few phone calls today asking for a quiet chat, somewhere private.

I think one of them might be from a very worried Dave, hoping to begin the groundwork for a coalition.

Maggie Thatcher and Norman Tebbits secret love child!

Is this a real person ninfan, or a figment of your imagination? 😯

You’re right thm. Looks like we’ll be back to Eurozone Crisis, the Sequel. Part… erm… what is it now? How many bailouts so far? Expect more as Europe tips back into full blown recession. Again. So it’ll be interesting having a GE with the European Central Bank pouring yet more billions into the bottomless money pit that is the still-bawked Eurozone economy.

As a backdrop, that’ll surely be an absolute gift to Farage. A still unreformed Euro going tits up yet again, thanks to more head-in-the-sand economics from Brussels. He must be rubbing his hands with glee at the prospect.

Though it won’t be leaving many other people with anything to smile about

You have already admitted that you were surprised to discover that until recently the Green Party had considerably more councilors than UKIP.

Ernie – I am used to having my words taken out of context on here, but actually I was saying the exact opposite, I was surprised that UKIP had so many Councillors and had overtaken the Greens. I then denied saying what you suggest above in my next post. I have known for some time how many Councillors the Greens have and how they had been successful at this level as they have concentrated their resources more narrowly.

You said the Greens suffered a media blackout, the Question Time figures suggests they get coverage so this is an exaggeration. If you changed what you say to the following, I would agree with it:

The media clearly mostly ignores Green Party related news and focuses much more heavily on all UKIP related news.

But again to batter the point home, this can be justified, in my view, as the Greens have not achieved national cut through. I think I have had to make the same point five times, my guess is that you disagree. I am unlikely to change your mind, and vice versa. The arguments have been made so it probably pointless to continue – on that we can agree.

THE LABOUR PARTY VOTE INCREASED

Well if you’re going to put it like that:
2010: 18,499
2014: 11,633

What’s more, as has been pointed out already the party in power usually gets a kicking in by-elections and recover for the next GE. There’s actually another very handy recent by-election to compare with, Wythenshawe and Sale East – only about 10 miles away, held just over 6 months ago, Labour increased their share of the vote by 11.2%. Is there a good reason they couldn’t have expected a similar performance here?

What’s more Labour increasing their share of the vote is pretty irrelevant if they lose the seat to UKIP – something they came very close to here, despite that not being predicted. The original suggestion is that Labour should be worried by UKIP, and if they aren’t after this then they’re really daft – it doesn’t matter where the UKIP votes are coming from if they get enough votes to beat them. That’s something they need to be worried about.

(you’ll note there was no Tory party content in this post – this isn’t about them)

Unfortunately Binners you are correct in terms of the gift for Farrage. The slowdown in Germany reported this week is very concerning. The French will be going way off piste and Southern European unrest will continue.

How long will the Germans be behind Ru sanctions after the hit they took this week?

Sadly the EUs debate will be lower in the gutter than the Scottish independence one. The thing will be – leave facts out of it.

It will be funny watching GO spouting austerity works too, especially when ironically the Tories have been among the most fiscally loose government in the developed world since they crisis. The gap between perception and reality grows even wider!!!

There’ll be twitching hoops in both big parties this morning.

The conservatives had the bad night they expected, with the votes following the man and not the party in Clacton as expected. Their share of votes in an unwinnable seat in a solid red area also collapsed.

For Labour their clusterf***up of a leader has to deal with the fact that what should be a solid red area had 52% of voters going for a right of centre party after 4 years of austerity-light, with a conservative government in power. A smidgen more tactical voting by a handful of conservatives would have seen the seat fall to the UKIP that apparently is not a threat to a party that has taken its core voters for granted for far too long. The knives were out for “Student Grant” Ed before last night. However they spin the result – “we increased our share of the vote compared to the apocalypse of 2010, didn’t we do well ?” – there will be more knives out by the weekend. Is there anyone waiting in the wings that will be able to take over this close to a general election and rise above the tide of poison that would be released by an act of regicide and unite the party in 7 months. Can I suggest Ed Balls? His boyfriend Yvette ? Harriet Harperson ?

Labour is not being complacent over UKIP Labour will work hard to show disaffected voters why Labour is the right choice.

All of you who are saying this is a disaster for Labour and are ignoring what happened in Clacton remind me of Iraq information minister Comical Ai

Of the three party leaders, which ones will be in place in 12 months time?

Ed has to go. He’s unelectable. The Thatcher years when a hated PM was put against Neil Kinnock and Micheal Foot are a case in point. They need a new leader. Now.

Cleggy is a dead man walking. Tutition Fees will hang around his neck forever.

Cameron has been quietly confident for the last few years. Not now.

Farage with his beer-and-fags matey man-of-the-people manifesto is a real danger to the usual suspects.

They need to wake up and see what’s coming.

I had no idea where Clacton was so looked it up. I doubt this will last long in the wiki:

On 9th October 2014, it was the first town to elect a nationalist candidate for UKIP to parliament, which makes it the most racist town in England<re>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29549414</ref&gt;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton-on-Sea

Let’s just imagine that UKIP does well in the next General Election and ends up with 30-40 seats. The Tories fail to get a majority and to form a government need to form a collation with UKIP and do so. UKIP would suffer in the same ways as the LibDems have done, since in effect they would be unable to implement any of their policies, although to be fair to UKIP they have sod all policies.

In the UK we are not accustomed to collation governments, but if the vote keeps splintering then this will become the norm. Is this good? It means that small parties can a greater influence than their vote, no one can deliver their manifesto since it will all be a compromise. In which case why are we beating up the LibDems for doing something that will become the norm.

Sadly this view of the future shows that the nutters from UKIP will drag the country further rightward and inward facing.

remind me of Iraq information minister Comical Ai

Oh the ironing etc.