U.S. Presidential Election 2020

I’m having a whisky sharpener now so I’ll stay up a bit. It’s only 12:30 in British summertime

**** this. I’m going to watch some zombies get hacked to bits then come back.

That’s not a dig at Trump voters. Mostly.

You may be right about Florida – Cuban population etc. Ohio is early encouraging signs – suburban votes headed for Biden. Trump doesn’t get Ohio he’s toast.

But – and it’s a big but – usually high turnout favours the challenger. The early raw numbers seem to be showing that might not be true this time. Trump is very, very good at getting his base out. That is the real sphincter pucker factor.

Amazing how screaming ‘socialism’ again and again with absolutely no evidence has made the difference in florida

Pensioners, rednecks and diaspora from corrupt former Spanish colony in voting for corrupt wannabe banana republic dictator shocker.

There are still a million votes to count in Florida. Presumably they’re onto the mail ins now.

I believe Florida counts in person ballots last so it’s likely to skew further towards trump. I think it’s fairly certain Florida has gone red

Florida mail ins counted first. Only remaining are all Trump counties, so looks like Trump wins FL

Stay with it boys; have a whisky sharpener to keep you going.
It’s very early.

Two fingers of Aldi spiced rum to keep me focused. Nearly drained all the IPAs I got in to keep me company. Looks like I’ll be forced to breach the missus’ stash of San Miguel. All in a good cause though..

There are still a million votes to count in Florida. Presumably they’re onto the mail ins now.

Really? That’s slightly more hopeful. Guess that’s why they’re not calling Florida yet

Florida mail ins counted first. Only remaining are all Trump counties, so looks like Trump wins

Bummer

AP projection says Mitch McConnell has held onto his Senate seat. 😒

If the Latinos gift Florida to Trump I’m going to drink all the San Miguels out of spite. She’ll understand

AP projection says Mitch McConnell has held onto his Senate seat.

Bummer

But to be expected, Kentucky is a redneck state through and through

It’s closing in Texas. My early pessimism has not abated!

Trump pulling ahead in Florida with 91% of the vote in, up by 2 points. But warning signs all around for Trump. Biden is up by 12 points in Ohio with 49% in. Biden is up 6 points in NC with 67% in. And Biden is up 3 points in Texas with 61% in.

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 4, 2020

Mitch Mcconnell losing his seat would be a sure sign of the apocalypse. I’m waiting to find out what happens to Graham.

Reckon it’s all over. Trump win.

NYTIMES needle

Trump chances of winning

Florida: > 95%
North Carolina: 73%
Georgia: 83%

Means Biden's route really does only lie in the Midwest and possibly Arizona (outside chance Texas)#ElectionNight #Election2020

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 4, 2020

2020 finale: Trump wins, No Deal Brexit, Queen dies of Covid, then on December 31st NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.

McConnell wouldn’t behave like he does if his seat wasn’t safe as houses. It’s kind of a vicious circle. It’s a horrible thing to say but he’s not leaving his position til he dies and therefore that can’t happen soon enough

That sounds like bollocks Daz. I can’t see the article in the NYT and every other media outlet is calling it for or betting on Biden in Ohio. The bookies are heavily swinging to Biden in Ohio.

NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.

A welcome finale…. As long as we get a decent heads up. Don’t want the wine and emergency drugs to go to waste.

December 31st NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.

At that point can we actually, finally declare that 26″ are dead?

People are getting overexcited about Florida. It’s a damn shame if Biden hasn’t taken it, because that would have not just done much to secure the win, it’d also help counter dirty tricks. But it’s always been a critical state for Trump, not so much for Biden. Just remember, that’s where Florida Man votes.

Likewise Georgia, which also looks like it might be going to Trump- that’s been a republican state since 92, it looked to be doable but it’s also not critical.

I could be mistaken but I think all of the seats that have declared so far were fairly safe, except for maybe Virginia which has gone back and forth a bit in recent years.

Basically, take a breath. The first round knockout’s not happened, still a lot of fight left.

Mainly because if Florida went blue I could go to bed.

Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas are all nice to haves for Biden. If he takes the rust belt and holds the Clinton states, he wins. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he takes Ohio he can afford to lose any of those other than Pennsylvania.

I reckon he’ll lose Georgia for sure and probably Texas. But he’s got a fighting chance in North Carolina

Survival tips 2020 pic.twitter.com/SaYexaiz86

— The Oatmeal (@Oatmeal) November 3, 2020

People are getting overexcited about Florida.

Maybe, but Florida has gone in favour of the eventual winner an awful lot of times. Demographics are changing quite significantly, especially in suburbs of traditional red states which may change the Florida predictor.

To put Dazs comment in perspective, five thirty eight are correct when they say that “if Florida goes to Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33%.

If he wins Georgia, his chances would go to 38%. If he won North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up.”

FiveThirtyEight had predicted Biden was more likely to take Florida though. A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?

If you put a Trump Florida win into their simulator the predictions don’t look nearly so rosy:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

Nate Silver – “ One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.“

Kim Darroch saying that he’s unable to call it and lots of confusing results such as Bidens performance in Texas.

On the upside, the two times Florida has not elected the eventual winner since the 60s, they’ve voted Republican and the winner was the democrat, iirc

A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?

Polls are always wrong in the sense that they are never exactly right. There is a margin of error in any poll, typically about 3 points with a sample of 1000 people. A poll that is within 3% of the final result (i.e. a 6 point confidence interval) is not wrong. Trump winning Florida is not particularly surprising.

What would be a major concern would be if polls across multiple states showed a consistent error towards one candidate or the other. That would mean that something systematic had been overlooked, rather than normal random noise.

Biden still ahead in Ohio by 2 percent with 60 percent of votes counted….

What would be a major concern would be if polls across multiple states showed a consistent error towards one candidate or the other. That would mean that something systematic had been overlooked, rather than normal random noise.

Or that polls turned out to be wrong in multiple events over time. Which they have, recently. The most accurate polling device in recent years has been the social media based aggregator, which has been correct recently where traditional polls haven’t.

GrahamS
Full Member

FiveThirtyEight had predicted Biden was more likely to take Florida though. A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?

Nope- they had him “slightly favoured” to win, not a strong prediction.

Though, the forecsats are definitely less reliable than normal, I think everyone who understands polls at all, understands that- the huge polarisation and the mobilisation of so many voters inevitably does that.

Biden still ahead in Ohio by 2 percent with 60 percent of votes counted….

Just 0.3% with 64 percent counted (according to CNN) 😳

Remember that in a lot of states there’s a specific vote counting order- so the votes announced so far aren’t necessarily much of a prediction of the next lot. Honestly I think the desire for rolling news and instant results is just pretty well thwarted by the US electoral system. Possibly the only thing it actually does well?

Going to bed. Not much looking forward to checking the phone tomorrow but que sera, sera.

#GoTeamMeteorite

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-vote-rising-among-blacks-hispanics-despite-conventional-wisdom-ncna1245787

As I pointed out back in 2016, another key factor for understanding minority support for Trump may be that minorities often hold antipathy toward other minority groups. As a consequence, even if we understand many of Trump’s policies and rhetoric to indeed be racist, minorities could support Trump precisely because his rhetoric or policies seem to target other minorities, whom they also dislike.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahah

#postmodernfascism #sillyhumans

Reckon Daz might have been right, looking forward to 5 more years of insanity and a no deal brexit. **** it, I’m taking the role in Geleen.

Well, just back from watching fear the walking dead.

Now I’m fearing Ohio. It’s really not looking good is it?